Answer 1): It will be a touch-and-go nail-biter all the way to the end — a battle that is being determined by the quality of the legislative candidates and campaigns, along with voter enthusiasm and turnout.
Of course, there is the X factor, MONEY. Spending on Michigan legislative races this year will break all records, which means campaign cash will be more important than ever before. And there the Democrats seem to have a big advantage.
Lansing-based MIRS newsletter reports that numbers collected by AdImpact showed that House Democrats and their allies have either spent or reserved $17.3 million in television and digital spending for the 2023-24 campaign cycle.
Simon Schuster of Bridge Michigan confirms that 18 of the top 20 House Democratic incumbents and challengers raised more campaign cash than their Republican opponents in the reporting period ending on July 27, due in no small part to their ability to tap into contributions from a web of out-of-state donors (See MIRS, “No Dems In Danger Outraised By Republican Challengers,” 7/26/24). That’s reconfirmed in the latest campaign finance filings for the October quarter, according to MIRS.
Money aside, another thing that’s unusual this year is that, with the amended term limits approved by the state’s voters in 2022, there has not been the mass exodus of incumbents that we’ve seen for the past four decades. There are only eight open seats, four for the Democrats and four for the GOP. The path to a majority for each party does NOT lie in those open districts, because the four Dem seats are out of reach for the Republicans. Likewise, there’s little or no chance a Democrat can win any of the four open districts now held by Republicans. So the key is knocking off incumbents in the general election, always a tough thing to do for either party.
So, what about specific House races? Here’s how things look today in the marginal districts that will determine which party gains the majority on Nov. 5:
22nd District: (NW Wayne Co., Livonia, Northville, Plymouth). Matt Koleszar (D-Plymouth), Re-elected ’22, 54.3%; Biden ’20, 52%. This district is trending blue, and Republican Adam Stathakis, director of operations at a family-owned business, is swimming against the tide. Lean Democrat.
27th District: (Downriver Wayne Co,, Gibraltar, Grosse Ile Twp, Riverview, Southgate, Trenton, Wyandotte). Jaime Churches (D-Wyandotte), Elected ’22, 50.8%; Trump ‘2o, 52%. The GOP nominee is hard-charging state Republican Youth Chair Rylee Linting of Grosse Ile, 22, who Democrats contend is too young for the job (they probably never heard of former Gov. John Engler or Rep. George Cushingberry who were elected to the Legislature at the same age). Meanwhile, incumbent Churches is spend a whopping $5.7 million to retain this seat. Tilt Democrat.
28th District: (Downriver Wayne Co. & Northern Monroe Co., Flat Rock, Rockwood, Taylor, Woodhaven, Brownstown, Frenchtown). Jamie Thompson (R-Brownstown), Elected ’22, 51%; Trump ’20, 52.2%. The Democratic nominee is Janise Robinson, a Woodhaven special education teacher who Dems are hoping can, with a lot of campaign cash, upset the incumbent in a Trump-leaning district. Tilt Republican.
38th District: (Staircase Lake Michigan shoreline of Berrien, Allegan, and Van Buren Counties). Joey Andrews (D-St. Joseph), Elected ’22, 52%; Biden ’20, 54%. Kevin Whiteford, the 2022 Republican nominee (and husband of a former House member) won the GOP primary, forcing a rematch with incumbent Andrews. Tilt Democrat.
31st District: (Parts of Lenawee, Monroe, Washtenaw & Wayne Cos.). Reggie Miller (D-Belleville), Elected ’22, 52.3%; Biden ’20, 50%. A rematch between Miller and Monroe Republican Dale Biniecki, an owner-operating truck driver. Toss-up.
44th District: (Battle Creek and Albion & northern tier of Calhoun Co.). Jim Haadsma (D-Battle Creek), Re-elected ’22, 52.2%; Trump ’20, 50%. Calhoun Co. Commissioner Steve Frisbie is the Republican nominee. Toss-up.
46th District: (Jackson and Chelsea and parts of Jackson & Washtenaw Cos.). Kathy Schmaltz (R-Jackson), Elected ’22, 54.4%; Trump ’20, 50.1%. The Democrats are spending $2.5 million on Jackson Mayor Dan Mahoney here. Tilt Republican.
48th District: (Northern part of Ann Arbor and parts of Jackson, Livingston & Washtenaw Cos.). Jennifer Conlin (D-Ann Arbor), Elected ’22, 53.1%; Biden ’20, 52%. Brian Ignatowski of Pinckney, general manager of a water filtration service, is the GOP nominee. Lean Democrat.
55th District: (SE Oakland Co., including Rochester & Rochester Hills). Mark Tisdel (R-Rochester Hills). Re-elected ’22, 51.8%; Biden ’20, 51.2%. Democrats are taking a run at the popular Tisdel with Trevis Harrold, a former U.S. Army Reserve military intelligence officer. Likely Republican.
57th District: (Parts of eastern Oakland Co. and western Macomb Co., with Troy and Sterling Heights dominating). Thomas Kuhn (R-Troy). Elected ’22, 52.6%; Trump ’20, 53%. Democrats think they have a sleeper with attorney/filmmaker Aisha Farooqi of Sterling Heights, but Trump carried this district twice and attorney Kuhn has a surname with a deep history in this area.. Lean Republican.
58th District: (Macomb Co., including Utica and pieces of Sterling Heights, Shelby Twp, and Warren). Nate Shannon (D-Sterling Heights), Re-elected ’22, 51.3%; Trump ’20, 52%. Utica city councilman Ron Robinson won the Republican primary and could pose trouble for the incumbent, who has survived GOP assaults before. Tilt Republican.
61st District: (Macomb Co., including Mt. Clemens & parts of Sterling Heights & Clinton Twp). Denise Mentzer (D-Mt. Clemens), Elected ’22, 52%; Trump, ’20, 50%. Robert Wojtowicz, a Chippewa Valley school board member, won a three-way Republican primary, but looks unlikely to prevail against Mentzer unless there is a Trump avalanche at the top of the ticket. Tilt Democrat.
76th District: (Most of Eaton Co., including Charlotte, Delta Twp, Eaton Rapids & Olivet). Angela Witwer (D-Delta Twp) Re-elected ’22, 55.8%; Biden ’20, 51%. The Republican primary yielded Andy Shaver, a Charlotte pastor, but it doesn’t look like he has much of a chance against three-termer Witwer even though it should be a winnable seat. Likely Democrat.
83rd District: (Kent Co., including Wyoming & parts of Grand Rapids & Byron Twp). John Fitzgerald (D-Wyoming), Elected ’22, 52.8%; Biden ’20, 54%. Fitzgerald has a noble pedigree from the opposite party — he’s the great-grandson of a former governor, grandson of an ex-Supreme Court Justice, and son of a former state representative, all Republicans. Now, he must fend off a challenge from a popular former area restaurateur, Tommy Brann, a Republican who served in the state House for six years. Tilt Democrat.
84th District: (Kent Co., including Walker & parts of Grand Rapids & Grandville). Carol Glanville (D-Walker), Elected ’22, 55.6%; Biden ’20, 54%. John Wetzel of Rockford, a contractor and high school basketball referee, is the Republican nominee in a district Joe Biden carried strongly in 2020. Lean Democrat.
86th District: (Holland & parts of Ottawa & Allegan Cos.). Nancy DeBoer (R-Holland), Elected ’22, 56.2%; Trump ’20, 50%. Amy Klomparens, 26, a former aide to U.S. Sen. Gary Peters, is the Democratic nominee against the former mayor of Holland. Likely Republican.
103rd District: (Traverse City & parts of Grand Traverse, Leelanau & Benzie Cos.). Betsy Coffia (D-Traverse City), Elected ’22, 49.8%; Biden ’20, 52%. Lisa Trombley won her Republican primary in this district, but she’s up against a Democratic opponent who has raised more campaign cash than any other incumbent this cycle. Tilt Democrat.
109th District: (Marquette, Alger, & Baraga Counties + part of Dickinson Co.). Jenn Hill (D-Marquette), Elected ’22, 53%; Biden ’20, 50%. Longtime TV broadcaster Karl Bohnak won the GOP primary and is campaigning against incumbent Democrat Jenn Hill with a theme of “Peninsula over Party.” That may hit home with a lot of U.P voters who know that Hill has cast a lot of ‘progressive’ votes that make her look more like she’s representing Detroit or Ann Arbor. Still, Hill is spending millions to bury Bohnak in negative ads; the big question is whether they’re backfiring. Toss-up.
From Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s press release on Monday:
“Attorney General Ken Paxton made a criminal referral to the Department of Justice (“DOJ”) detailing the results of an investigation that revealed how suspicious actors seemingly use ActBlue’s political fundraising platform to make illegal straw donations.
The investigation into ActBlue began in December 2023 following allegations that the company could be facilitating illegal campaign contributions. As a result, in August 2024 ActBlue began requiring donors using credit cards to provide “CVV” codes, a common security measure. That does not prevent all the abuses that Attorney General Paxton’s team has identified on ActBlue, including that straw donations apparently are being made on a large scale using false identities, through untraceable payment methods.
On Monday, Attorney General Paxton sent a petition for rulemaking to the Federal Election Commission (“FEC”) urging changes that would close loopholes that can be exploited to illegally funnel money into American elections. When the FEC previously considered adopting rules that could prevent straw donation schemes like those uncovered by the investigation, ActBlue opposed such changes.
“I have made a criminal referral to the U.S. Department of Justice based on the findings from our investigation into ActBlue. My investigation uncovered evidence showing that bad actors are likely using ActBlue’s platform to make illegal campaign contributions,” said Attorney General Paxton. “It is illegal to engage in election fraud and it is illegal to obscure one’s identity to flout election rules. The Department of Justice must take immediate action to prevent illegal conduct in our elections.”
You can read AG Paxton’s DoJ referral letter and his FEC petition in their entirety on his official Texas dot web site.
It goes without saying that this investigation was the actual reason that AG Paxton was impeached in May, 2023. The beneficiaries of Act Blue’s smurfing and other corrupt practices were desperate to drive him from office and impede this investigation.
They did not succeed.
I reside in the 58th Michigan House District and I am elated that you believe that long-time incumbent Nate Shannon, a former schoolteacher, is expected to be the underdog for this seat.
In 2022, Michelle Smith, a member of the Michigan Republican Party State Committee, ran for seat and lost by a 51%-49% margin in a race where she received little outside help from the MIGOP organization campaign-wise.
The GOP has traditionally come close to winning this seat but has fallen short many times. Sean Clark in 2012 also lost by a 51%-49% count.
This race differs in that Macomb County is pro-Trump and there should be some coattail effect to aid Robinson, a former USMC serviceman. Robinson also has received significant political action committee funding that past GOP nominees general lacked.
Rylee Linting, a tall attractive young blonde, easily won the GOP primary in the 27th District. Never underestimate the effect of beauty has on an electorate – she won her chairmanship at MIGOP after a convention vote easily beating the son of Republican heavyweight Meshawn Maddock. Linting should take the seat over Churches.
In the 76th District, Angela Witwer (Not “Whitwer”) has taken heavy criticism this election cycle over questions of unjustified lobbyist influence. Shaver has not put up a very strenuous campaign – and if he did he might take the seat from Witwer.
Michigan is well on the way to being a single party state like California. On the bright side though, investigative journalist Candace Owens has blockbuster information about Kamala Harris’ shady family history on her YouTube channel. You won’t see this on ANY mainstream news shows. It seems that Kamala Harris is not who she says she is.
Nice article, Bill.
The answer to the question is whether Trump has coattails should he win. In 2016 he had some coattails despite being outspent by a lot. In 2016, the GOP won a pair of State Board seats – McMillan and Snyder (Nikki not Rick); two U of M Regent seats – Meyers and Weiser; Kelly and Deary for the MSU Trustees; and both WSU seats. The GOP actually added a seat in the State House. If he wins, how long and strong are his coattails. History says yes there should be and Pete Hoekstra will be doing a wee bit of gloating.
Thank you, Bill. Excellent analysis although, like me, you lean a little Republican.
Hope you remember my words of the definition of “bottoming out” and that would be if the Republicans lose POTUS, US Senate and Dems maintain a majority in the house
Grateful for Gov Snyder’ s efforts to help REPUBLICANS
ANSWER 1) Look for the GOP to regain control of the House. And believe it or not, it will be in part to DJT’s coattails. None other than Tricky Dick coined the phrase “The Silent Majority”, and it will be this group that carries the GOP over the top. This also explains why Mike Rogers is doing better than expected against Miss Piggy.
It really boils down to the simple, easy to understand things. Like which candidate believes that warped wussy boys should not play on girls’ sports teams (which lets them use the same locker room), a border that leaks like a sieve, and printing up funny money doubling the price of eggs and milk.
The question voters will be asking themselves just before they blacken the oval is which candidate seems the most authentic and genuine? (Hint: It isn’t Kackling Kamalhoe, who can’t even express a coherent thought unless she reads word for word from a teleprompter)
Bill, I have no idea whether either Trump or Harris will have coattails come this Nov 5 election. My suspicion that Harris and Slotkin would win it all going away is already destitute and bankrupt. But the one thing I absolutely know for sure is that TBR has already been, and will continue to be, the big winner this year and for the remainder of the year to come. Standing on the 1st amendment’s stipulation of speech being free, how can it not be a winner destined for the halls of fame. Additionally, it may just have extremely long coattails and bring the 2nd amendment and several of the other amendments along for the ride (a-w-a MI state constitution, laws, rulings, etc., etc.). And just read on after your initial analysis and we will find some of the best commentary and further analysis from the TBR respondents, from both sides of the aisle, that can be found anywhere. Definitely better than the cost of admission as they say.
Keep up the good work Bill, no other place to get great analysis and colorful commentary detailing Michigan’s current state of affairs . . .