Hard to believe anyone in Michigan cares, given the way the state has treated its own horse racing industry. For the first time in 90 years, pari-mutuel horse racing is virtually extinct in Michigan.
Fighting back against this downward spiral, the American Horse Racing Council produced a 2016 study showing that the equine industry has a $2.6 billion impact on Michigan, including a $389 million contribution from racing that produces nearly 4,000 jobs. But pari-mutuel horse racing as been killed in Michigan by the pure greed of the casinos and Michigan’s Lottery, where bettors rarely win because the house (or the State of Michigan) has stacked the deck against all participants. Not so with pari-mutuel, which it has been proven rewards a bettor’s smarts and hard work with a steady income.
YES! —the latest chapter in “The Fastest Two Minutes in Sports” is upon us again.
This year’s Derby, the 152nd, is tomorrow (Saturday, May 2). It will once again be telecast (on NBC, Fanduel TV, Fox Sports, Racetrack TV Network, USA Network, and Peacock). Post time is supposed to be 6:57 p.m., but you can count on it being a little later than that.
The 2023 winner at lengthy odds of 15-1 was Mage, only the third horse in a century and a half to win the Derby without having run as a 2-year-old. Mage qualified for the Derby at the last minute because five other horses scratched, including the pre-race favorite, Forte.
The 2022 winner was an even bigger shocker — a onetime maiden claimer named Rich Strike, a last-minute entry from the also-eligible list when two other horses withdrew. Rich Strike roared from behind to win at near-record longshot odds of 80-1.
The four years before that constituted the WORST collective debacle in the long history of the Derby, but let’s not go into that nightmare.
This year? The only thing worse than 2018-21 would be a seven-horse pile-up on Churchill Downs’s far turn, with deaths and injuries, human and equine. It’s always a possibility in racing, plus all the barn fires and mysterious diseases that have killed countless race horses in the past few years, especially in California.
Let’s pray that doesn’t happen. If not, let’s hope last year’s Derby (Sovereignty was the winner) proves the classic is back on track, on schedule and with a full crowd, always one of the largest in sports. In Michigan — where live horse racing has been virtually destroyed by greedy lobbyists, mercenary flacks, and bungling Lansing politicians — legally you could bet on it in 2024, for the 31st straight year, at Northville Downs — but NOT ANYMORE now that the track has closed. Today, the Barry Co. fairgrounds is the only hope.
Where to bet on the Kentucky Derby TODAY in Michigan
So, when it’s time to get your bets in on the Kentucky Derby, you have only one option to consider. Here’s the scoop:
- Mobile or online: Kentucky Derby betting online or via your mobile device are hands-down the most convenient options. TVG Racing, an industry leader in horse racing betting, is the place to go on both fronts. Setting up an account is a piece of cake, and you can place your bets whenever you’re ready in quick and painless fashion.
Therefore, with a little bit of planning and a credit/debit card, you can set up a pre-paid account with a number of internet betting sites and then watch the race in the comfort of your living room, office, field tent or jail cell.
Does this year’s $5 million classic remind us of the years a decade or so ago when favorites like Orb, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Nyquist and Justify all won? Or will it be more like that 2020 melee, when Authentic pulled off an upset at odds of 8-1, or 2012, when a 12-1 longshot named I’ll Have Another embarrassed the favorites? Or what about 2003, when Empire Maker was a prohibitive choice over all the other horses? No, he didn’t win.
In other words, Derbys are like snowflakes — they’re all the same, yet they’re all different, especially so this year. The race is always run at Kentucky’s Churchill Downs. It’s always a mile and a quarter, the horses are all 3-year-olds, and in recent years the field has always been huge— up to a maximum of 20 entries. But everything else is different and varied — trainers and owners and jockeys and especially the horses they’re handling, and track conditions, as well as the past performances of all the contenders.
One other complicating factor: Even with just a day remaining before the race, we can’t be absolutely sure what horses are going to start. Remember, past favorites like A.P. Indy in 1992 and Forte in 2023 have been scratched on the eve of the contest. In fact, multiple horses have been scratched the past four years (including this year), just hours before the race, and that’s how Rich Strike and Mage, taking their places, were allowed to enter.
So, which horse do we pick this year? Post positions were assigned April 26, and that can be all-important. For example, the #5 post has won more than any other (10 times), and horses running from the #10 hole have finished in the money 25 times, more than any other (including Secretariat in 1973). No horse has ever won from the #17 post.
This year, Churchill Downs’s racing secretary has established Renegade, running from the #1 hole, as the pre-race favorite at odds of 4-1. Renegade won the Arkansas Derby and has a great trainer, Todd Pletcher, and jockey, Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Who else is in the field? The second-betting favorites are Commandment and Further Ado at 6-1. Commandment is the Florida Derby champion and has won four races in a row. Further Ado ran away with the Blue Grass Stakes and should at least be used in any multi-race and exotic wagers.
One factor all of these horses or their jockeys and trainers will have to worry about this year is the legendary trainer Bob Baffert — his three-year suspension in 2021 by Churchill Downs has ended and he’s back with two entries — Potente and Litmus Test. Baffert has won more Triple Crown races than anyone (16), and he’s tied for the lead with the late Ben Jones with six Derby triumphs. However, Potente and Litmus Test are longshots at 20-1 and 50-1, respectively.
It’s important to remember — betting continues from today right up to post time, and the odds on all 20 horses in the field are certain to change by late Saturday afternoon. Remember, too, how “impossibilities” in racing have very recently turned into “It just happened!”
When all is said and done, this is a wide-open race, with no strong favorite. Let’s go with Further Ado, at relatively long odds of 6-1, to win. If you want to hedge your bet, pick Further Ado and either Commandment or Renegade in a quinella, meaning they must finish 1-2 in either order. If you want to have a little fun, plunk for all three of the above-named horses in a TRIFECTA, but you have to pick ’em in exact order of finish for the jackpot. Then there’s the Superfecta, where you have to pick the top FOUR finishers in order to win. Throw in one of Baffert’s horses, Potente, with the above three and see what happens. The average payout at the Derby on a winning $1 Superfecta bet over the past five years has been a whopping $66,191.30.
Do you want to be really adventurous and plunk for a longshot like Mage in 2023 or Rich Strike in 2022? The Ballenger Report advised bettors three years ago that Mage at 45-1 was one to watch, and he produced. There are plenty of entries in this year’s field with odds at least that long, so study up and pick one of them for a big pay-off.
Anyway you cut it, the biggest challenge for each of these colts (there will be no fillies this year) will be negotiating his way around and through up to 19 other horses, as opposed to the skimpy fields they’ve faced in the past few months.
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Glad to get the Derby Edition! When I didn’t see it last Sunday, I was afraid you had dropped it. Always fun to try my luck, with your insights. Sad to hear of even further declines in Michigan racing.
Welcome back, Bill!
Nice article. I concur on the demise of horse racing. You got the cause right, plus the addiction to the new sources of gambling that the political class desires, is a big factor as well. They like the revenue they get by deluding themselves it is a “voluntary” tax when what they are creating a new kind of junkie.
What needs to be said is that all this on-line gambling, as well as the casinos and such, has created its own addicted folks who wind up in bankruptcy – or worse. In the old days, you had to put effort to go to the track to gamble or just enjoy the race and the atmosphere. Now, you pick up the evil smart phone, hit a few buttons, and your money is gone (in online gambling, the odds are always especially in the house’s favor).
Casinos are just as bad. The computerized slots are generally less “player friendly” than the old mechanical ones. I went to one for a group lunch and was appalled there was an ATM machine there. If you going to gamble in a casino or at the track, just take the money you can afford to lose. And if you feel the compulsion to raid the ATM, just leave.
And yes, having Northville Downs at the end of Hines Park was nice. You could go there and see the horses heading to the track. There was something satisfying about that, something I don’t think casinos, and certainly your mobile phone, can ever duplicate.
My first cognizance of the sport was in 1968 when Dancer’s Image was disqualified due to phenylbutazone in its system.
The decision was highly controversial and Forward Pass was declared the winner.
Horse racing is a cruel sport.
I, too, always look forward to your annual Derby article. The state of thoroughbred horse racing in Michigan and across the US isn’t strong. It’s going to take inspired innovations and dedicated investors to infuse the sport with new life. Even then it will take continual efforts to keep racing venues viable. It’s a wonderful goal.
The folks involved with the Kentucky Derby have been able to build it into a national event that’s seems bigger than ever, even spawning “Derby Parties” with all you need accessories: bourbon, julip cups, hats, decorations, games, tablewear, etc. in my home state of Virginia, we’ve grown the sport in recent years but it’s a constant, worthy fight.
So here’s to Derby Day! Glad your article and the race are with us again.
There is a dark side to horse racing as a cruel and unethical sport.
Dancer’s Image finished first in the Kentucky Derby – but was later disqualified due to phenylbutazone in its system.
There have been numerous scandals over the years – the 2020 horse race indictments involving “doping” and other PEDs that endangered horses lives being among the most disturbing in recent memory.
Medina Spirit won the 2021 Kentucky Derby but was disqualified and the trainer suspended. The horse died shortly later.
The sport thrives on the misery of horses.
The public has shunned horse racing in Michigan and it needs to be banned forever – just like boxing.