Question 1): As all Michigan political observers know by now, former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan this past Thursday suddenly dropped his independent gubernatorial bid after a 16-month campaign. Why did he pull out, more than five months before the Nov. 3 general election? In a press conference announcing his decision, Duggan said he no longer saw a path to victory after recent polls showed him losing steam and the realization that national fundraising for any candidate not a Democrat or Republican was drying up.
Nevertheless, rumors and conspiracy theories abound. Could there be an as yet undisclosed health issue? Does Duggan have another job lined up, such as the vacant presidency at his alma mater, the University of Michigan? There is also the gathering cloud over his decade-long Detroit neighborhood demolition campaign, with testing and cleanup costs for toxic dirt mounting and a recently revealed FBI probe related to the program. The number of Detroit properties where contaminated backfill dirt is believed to have been used to fill basement holes has grown to more than 650 since Duggan announced in December that a demolition contractor and city-approved backfill dirt supplier had potentially contaminated more than 500 sites.
But at his Thursday news conference, Duggan denied any connection between poisoned Motown dirt and his withdrawal from the race, claiming “that is not on voters’ minds.”
Still, Democrats had sought to make the problem a campaign issue, with attack ads and billboards tying Duggan to what party press releases called his “dirty dirt.” Such attacks were likely to chip away at Duggan’s carefully-cultivated image of being a highly successful, can-do, corruption-free mayor. Plus, it could damage his historical legacy.
So, what about all this? Does Duggan’s explanation at his press conference sound plausible?
Answer 1): It’s sensible to take Duggan’s word for why he’s ended his campaign.
Many observers last year predicted this crash-and-burn, on the eve of the 2026 Detroit Regional Chamber of Commerce Mackinac Island Conference, as inevitable. There were simply too many obstacles — historical, monetary, and legal — for Duggan to overcome, they thought.
Just last week, here’s what TBR wrote about Duggan’s status in mid-May:
“In the general election for Governor, Glengariff Group pollster Richard Czuba notes that, in today’s polarized political environment, voters tend to “retreat to their corners” and hunker down with their traditional allegiances. That may explain why Duggan’s independent candidacy has at least temporarily stalled out, and he lags well behind Benson and either (John) James or (Perry) Johnson in the polls. That may not change between now and November.”
Duggan and his campaign manager son, Ed, appear to have reached the same conclusion, citing in particular the mounting hostility to Donald Trump that was coalescing (and boosting) opposition to the president that would dominate how the electorate votes in November, tuning everything else out (like independent candidates).
Coincidentally, two lawsuits were filed this past week challenging Michigan’s 130-year-old ban on fusion voting – a system that once allowed multiple political parties to nominate the same candidate for office. The combined votes, party by party, could be enough to surpass the votes for any candidate nominated by just one party, even a major one.
The first lawsuit, filed Wednesday by the newly-formed Michigan Common Sense Party (MCSP) in the Court of Claims, and the second suit, filed Thursday in Ingham County Circuit Court, argue that the ban violates the Constitution by suppressing the development and growth of new and minor parties as well as depriving voters of the opportunity to cast ballots for parties that represent their views.
In March of 1895, the Michigan Legislature, then controlled by Republicans and with a GOP Governor, banned fusion voting to minimize the role of third parties. A dozen years earlier, in the 1882 election, a Fusion ticket consisting of Democrats and Greenbackers, had elected Josiah Begole of Flint to be governor. He ousted a Republican incumbent and served a full two-year term.
Plaintiffs in the two lawsuits argue the fusion ban violates constitutional protections of free speech and free association as well as the fundamental right to vote. Fusion voting gives voters more freedom, more voice, and more meaningful choices without acting as spoilers, according to a co-founder of the MCSP.
But is it really accurate to claim that a third party candidate has never won any top office in Michigan, and can’t? For governor, yes, but what about President? Fact is, one Theodore Roosevelt won all of Michigan’s electoral votes in 1912 over Democrat Woodrow Wilson and incumbent President William Howard Taft. True, TR was sui generis and didn’t need money or favorable election laws to prevail. However, what about George Wallace in 1968 and Ross Perot in 1992 and 1996? The former took 10% of the vote against Richard Nixon and Hubert Humphrey in the 1968 general election on the “American Independent” ticket, and four years later easily won the Michigan Democratic primary The latter won over 19% of the vote in November of 1992 (as an Independent) and nearly 9% in 1996 (on the “Reform” ticket). They didn’t win it all, but they proved third party candidates can have some success, even when lacking immense funding and with the election laws stacked against them.
But isn’t that what it all comes down to? MONEY? Campaign cash was important in the past, yes, but it was nowhere near as significant as it is today. Duggan himself put his finger on that in his press conference — he said that he could see an independent or third party candidate at some point “breaking through’ nationally (or in Michigan), but he or she would have to be “self-funded.” Otherwise, the “national networks of major party donors” would crush any independent opposition.
All that said, at least one Michigan political observer, former state GOP executive director Jason Cabel Roe, thinks Duggan’s withdrawal was “premature” and that he’ll regret it somewhere down the campaign trail he has deserted — unless, of course, he gets a “better” job.
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Jocelyn Benson just won the governorship. The Duggan withdrawal is a huge blow to the Republicans this election cycle.
End of story.
Michael Duggan’s political strength was among Detroit voters and the western Wayne County electorate. Most of his potential votes for governor in Wayne County will likely go to Jocelyn Benson.
However, one can make a case that Oakland and Macomb County residents who lean moderate that would have voted for Duggan will vote for the Republican nominee for governor instead.
While I believe the net gain of the Duggan withdrawal resides with Democrats, I believe that John James still has a good shot at the governorship once he secures the nomination.
The GOP may be toast at the gubernatorial level.
Can you imagine Detroiters voting for Perry Johnson in droves. LOL.
Please tell me what you hear/ my sources say Benson/Singh Vs. James/Leonard
Benson/Chang vs. James/Nesbitt.
Nice article, Bill. And a history lesson thrown in as well.
Charlie LeDuff wins! He’s been rather hard on Duggan and I am sure he will take some sort of victory lap. He’s also had Benson in his sights…
With declining poll numbers, it would be harder for Duggan to get money to fund the campaign. Where his donors go will be interesting to watch. Something missing in this report is Curtis Hertel. Curtis basically told Democrats who backed Duggan they’re dead to the Party, much like Susan Rice did back in February when she threatened corporate America for supporting Trump. As I responded in the September 1, 2025 TBR: “THE MICHIGAN DEMOCRATIC PARTY AND ITS CHAIR CURTIS HERTEL, HAVE BASICALLY SAID ANY DEMOCRAT ENDORSING DUGGAN WILL BE EXCOMMUNICATED, BANISHED AND SHUNNED BY THE PARTY. WILL THIS IMPEDE MANY DEMOCRATS FROM ENDORSING HIM? I DON’T KNOW. AMONG THE DEMOCRATS WHO HAVE GIVEN HIM MONEY, KYLE MELINN REPORTS IN CITY PULSE THAT LIST INCLUDES DEMOCRATIC MSU TRUSTEE REBECCA BAHAR-COOK, FORMER MSU TRUSTEE DEM COLLEEN MCNAMARA (NO SURPRISE), WSU GOVERNORS ANIL KUMAR AND BRYAN BARNHILL II, FORMER SEN. BUZZ THOMAS, FORMER SEN. MARSHALL BULLOCK, FORMER REPS. BRIAN BANKS, LISA HOWZE AND KEITH STALLWORTH. FORMER CHIEF JUSTICE OF THE MICHIGAN SUPREME COURT CONRAD MALLET DOES NOT CARE. DENISE ILITCH HAS MONEY, SO SHE DOES NOT CARE. SAME WITH MARK BERNSTEIN (THOUGH IT MIGHT BE INTERESTING IF THE DEMS RENOMINATE HIS BROTHER RICHARD FOR THE STATE SUPREME COURT). I DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE MR. STEENLAND GETTING ANYWHERE IN THE PARTY NOW, BUT AFTER HE LOST IN THE PRIMARY IN 2022, HE MAY NOT CARE. MS HERRYGERS, I BELIEVE, IS (OR WAS) ONE OF THE MICHIGAN FOLKS INVOLVED WITH THE NO LABELS FOLKS, BUT I HAVE NO IDEA IF SHE IS A RECOVERING DEMOCRAT OR REPUBLICAN.”
If one is being cynical, one might think the first act against Mark Bernstein was to team him up with Sarah Hubbard to investigate fellow U of M Regent Jordan Acker over texts or whatever constitutes the allegation. I understand that Bernstein and Acker have been allies on the Board, not so much Hubbard and Acker. Film at 11.
There may be some folks replaced on the Democratic nominated MSU Trustees and WSU Governors. We will get a first chance to see what the level of retribution will be soon enough.
Though there are rumors of Duggan to the vacant U of M presidency. Now that would be fun and lead to speculation that he was bought off his quest for governor.
There WILL be “folks replaced” on the Wayne State University Board of Governors as the two incumbent Democrats whose terms expiring at the end of this year are NOT running for re-election. The Democrats have a 5-3 majority on the WSU Board and have nominated at the recent endorsement convention civil rights attorneys Shereef Akeel and Richard Mack to replace them.
Dr. Michael Busuito, a WSU School of Medicine professor, Terri Lynn Land and Sunny Reddy are the current GOP members of the WSU Board of Governors. At the last endorsement convention, delegates picked Andy Anuzis, the younger brother of former MIGOP chairman Saul Anuzis and headmaster of a Detroit charter school, and Christa Murphy, a cybersecurity specialist, for November ballot endorsement.
This is the first time in decades that the GOP has an opportunity to flip the WSU Board red.
There has been high board-level tension that has contributed to presidential turnover, including that of Kimberly Andrews Espy. The administration, backed by the Board, ordered the police to clear pro-Gaza student encampments, resulting in arrests and allegations of excessive force. Students and faculty widely condemned the handling of student protests. There have also been serious controversies over the administration of the medical school.
I suspect that Kumar and Barnhill were informed they would not be renominated some time ago. As for November, we’ll see. Wayne State has been a raging dumpster fire for a while trying to keep presidents and the like.
According to the Michigan Chronicle, Barnhill was term-limited out.
Anil Kumar filed to run for Congress, but was later disqualified.
To the best of my knowledge, the WSU Board of Governors is not covered by Michigan term limits. I’m not sure what the Chronicle was referencing. Kumar has run for Congress before (I think). He should have known better.
This is from the State Constitution: § 5 University of Michigan, Michigan State University, Wayne State University; controlling boards.
Sec. 5.
The regents of the University of Michigan and their successors in office shall constitute a body corporate known as the Regents of the University of Michigan; the trustees of Michigan State University and their successors in office shall constitute a body corporate known as the Board of Trustees of Michigan State University; the governors of Wayne State University and their successors in office shall constitute a body corporate known as the Board of Governors of Wayne State University. Each board shall have general supervision of its institution and the control and direction of all expenditures from the institution’s funds. Each board shall, as often as necessary, elect a president of the institution under its supervision. He shall be the principal executive officer of the institution, be ex-officio a member of the board without the right to vote and preside at meetings of the board. The board of each institution shall consist of eight members who shall hold office for terms of eight years and who shall be elected as provided by law. The governor shall fill board vacancies by appointment. Each appointee shall hold office until a successor has been nominated and elected as provided by law.
Tim:
Yeah, the “term-limited” quote made no sense to me either.
MSU and U-M Boards get all the media attention, but WSU has had its own drama in the last few years.
I do know that the Board had become very contentious in recent years and think that both Barnhill and Kumar likely felt they had better things to do with their time.
“Why did he pull out, more than five months before the Nov. 3 general election?”
Duggan has clearly stated that he could not even approach the avalanche of out-of-state money backing the Democrats and Republicans. No California or New York zillionaires have any interest in an independent candidate winning the Michigan governorship.
Duggan could have beaten Jocelyn Benson in a Democratic primary.
Hey Bill, there certainly is no quit in you . . . as we all say yea.
Wither Duggan . . . some thoughts,
with respect to (wrt): SOME HAVE SAID DUGGAN WITHDRAWING MAKES BENSON A SHOO-IN: Well, she IS a shoo-in assuming Duggan was pulling more from the Dems than the GOP. I haven’t heard any stats on that subject but the wind blowing on my wetted upraised index finger tells me he was pulling more from the Repubs. If so, I suspect many will find their way home to either John James or Perry Johnson (ok, or Mike Cox, too). This should tend to tighten the general election race and may determine the GOP candidate in the primaries.
wrt: FUSION VOTING: I actually would prefer going whole hog for modified parliamentary system of government over fusion voting. I’d keep the term limitations in most cases but then also invoke a vote of no confidence clause into the mix to bring about early elections when necessary.
wrt: SQUELCHING THIRD PARTIES: I believe it was Geo. Washington who warned against more than 2 political parties. I believe he preferred to force the rhetoric to boil down each issue to a yes or no decision and then have the 2 political parties take a stance to debate the merits. Of course, what was missing was the various factions. Religion (Catholicism vs non-Catholicism vs Islam, etc.), Economics (Capitalism vs Socialism/Communism), Class (haves vs have-nots), etc.
wrt: Emergence of a third/fourth party: Despite attempts to the contrary, for the party out of power (including the 2 major parties), the best easiest way back into power is by recruiting a rich self-funded candidate that can charismatically sway large factions while fending off the money factions and legal factions that will be flung at them. TR, Wallace, and Ross Perot being candidates referred to above and elsewhere that prove my point. Currently, Perry Johnson is attempting this method, and I applaud him for it. Problem is, John James has a pretty good $$ stockpile himself. Benson is backed by Caesar’s machine. She will gain her $$ stockpile once she attains office.
As usual Bill, you are the best . . .
First, I take Duggan’s reasons for dropping his campaign at face value. The political world changed since he began his campaign as an Independent.
Second, Remember the old cliche that both parties are capable of repeating: – “snatching defeat from the jaws of victory”? While Duggan’s departure may harden both R and D camps, neither has the support to win the Governor’s race without Independents. How will they break in November?
Third, While Benson has some headway, she and the Whitmer administration are nor free of mistakes that will be grist for whoever is the R candidate (like the MEDC scandal that may lead to Whitmer’s office) – although I don’t see either Johnson or James being the best the Rs could have come up with.
Fourth, Michigan has a long-standing habit of alternating the party in the Governor’s office – most likely remembering D-Blanchard, followed by R-Engler, followed by D-Granholm, followed by R-Snyder, followed by D-Whitmer. No Republican has succeeded to the office of Governor since Milliken became Governor when Romney resigned to become HEW Secretary in 1969 (and won elections in 1970, 1974, and 1978). BUT when was the last time a Democrat was elected to follow a Democrat as Governor? 1960, when Swainson followed G. Mennan Williams – 66, repeat SIXTY-SIX, YEARS ago.
Excellent point about Michigan voters alternating offices between Dems and GOP nominees…………however Jocelyn Benson is doing well in recent polling and she has largely avoided the scandals that have plagued Dana Nessel and other Michigan Democrats.
Duggan has expressly realized that his candidacy may cause him to be a “spoiler” – and I always believed that he might withdraw from the governor’s race
Dark money, of unknown domestic and foreign sources, appear to determine to whom We have as major candidates to choose from. Thus the ballot is not representative of the Constituency.
Tell that to Thomas Massie in Kentucky..
Duggan’s final polling numbers were not bad…………………
One poll had him only a few points behind the GOP candidates. Another had him about 10% back of the Republican candidates.
One wonders the level of pressure he may have been up against by Democrats to withdraw his candidacy
Think DRC pulled the plug. They seem to have reached a modus vivendi with Whitmer and Benson.
I think now, or soon, would be a good time for either the James or Johnson campaigns to be contacting Duggan for 2nd place on their respective tickets. Unless . . . Duggan already has a deal in his pocket from the Benson crew. Or, from some other of the party of Caesar.
Michael Duggan will NEVER be anyone’s lieutenant governor.
I suspect a sub rosa quid pro quo may have been reached between Duggan and some other party or parties to facilitate his withdrawal from the gubernatorial race.
For argument’s sake I accept both of your premises.
1) Duggan will not WANT to accept 2nd place. But that is only as good as your 2nd premise (a private deal with ‘some other party or parties’), that some entity out bids the GOP candidates. We all have our price.
2) With respect to your 2nd premise, do you care to elaborate? 10 x 25 says DRC?!? The Republicans are in on it? My premise that Duggan’s withdrawal may help Republicans makes me wonder prolifically concerning whom other than a nice Villa on the Riviera Detroi’ provided by Caesar’s coffers could sway him to get out . . .
The Detroit Regional Chamber PAC endorsed Duggan last July and he attended their Mackinac Policy Conference a few days ago where he mused about the gubernatorial election and his reasons for ceasing his campaign.
His withdrawal from the race does not make DRC look good – nor would it benefit DRC at all.
The primary beneficiary of this Duggan withdrawal is Jocelyn Benson – who stands to gain many more votes in November from the City of Detroit and western Wayne County.
Duggan DID have support from a number of prominent Republicans in Metro Detroit – but clearly his exits benefits Benson and Democrats.
“His withdrawal from the race does not make DRC look good – nor would it benefit DRC at all.”
The Detroit Regional Chamber is all about tax funded grants and incentives to businesses. The Democrats are fully onboard, but those grants and incentives are radioactive in the Republicans world. Duggan has always been pro incentive.
Duggan was DRC’s effort to keep the tax funded business incentives flowing if the Republicans had a blowout year. Now that conventional wisdom says the Democrats will sweep on November 3rd, the DRC no longer has to spend a lot of money to elect their Trojan Horse.
Sweep by Michigan Dems on November 3rd? Heh!
Another “progressive liberal” Michigan Attorney General?
Unlikely after voters were witnessing how Dana Nessel served eight years in that capacity.
Garlin Gilchrist will get trounced by Tony Forlini in Macomb County and outstate for the SOS position.
Democrats have now fallen behind Mike Rogers in polling for the U.S. Senate seat.
The Dems will, however, likely, sweep the Mich. Supreme Court races.
On the very day that Duggan threw in the towel (May 21st), the crooked Democratic apparatchiks at MEDC disbursed $ 6.8 million in “Trusted Connector” grants to Michigan business organizations, including DRC.
10×25:
What you are saying is accurate.
There was a inordinate level of enticement for Duggan to withdraw from the race.
Another example of MEDC partisan shenanigans that need to end.
Duggan was Ed McNamara’s second banana for years. He was quite comfortable in that role.
Michael Duggan was Wayne County Prosecutor and also DMC CEO.
He was hardly a “second banana” to anyone.
I have a great deal of respect for him.
Duggan was Deputy Wayne County Executive from 1987 to 2001, under Ed McNamara. Fourteen years as second banana. Another three years as Wayne County Prosecutor, covering for the McNamara machine.
Duggan exited, stage right, after FBI agents and state police raided McNamara’s county office in November 2002. McNamara and his subordinates escaped indictment due to McNamara’s terminal cancer diagnosis which became public a month later.
Duggan is a man of honor – her represents the people and only the people.