Question 1): As all Michigan political observers know by now, former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan this past Thursday suddenly dropped his independent gubernatorial bid after a 16-month campaign. Why did he pull out, more than five months before the Nov. 3 general election? In a press conference announcing his decision, Duggan said he no longer saw a path to victory after recent polls showed him losing steam and the realization that national fundraising for any candidate not a Democrat or Republican was drying up.
Nevertheless, rumors and conspiracy theories abound. Could there be an as yet undisclosed health issue? Does Duggan have another job lined up, such as the vacant presidency at his alma mater, the University of Michigan? There is also the gathering cloud over his decade-long Detroit neighborhood demolition campaign, with testing and cleanup costs for toxic dirt mounting and a recently revealed FBI probe related to the program. The number of Detroit properties where contaminated backfill dirt is believed to have been used to fill basement holes has grown to more than 650 since Duggan announced in December that a demolition contractor and city-approved backfill dirt supplier had potentially contaminated more than 500 sites.
But at his Thursday news conference, Duggan denied any connection between poisoned Motown dirt and his withdrawal from the race, claiming “that is not on voters’ minds.”
Still, Democrats had sought to make the problem a campaign issue, with attack ads and billboards tying Duggan to what party press releases called his “dirty dirt.” Such attacks were likely to chip away at Duggan’s carefully-cultivated image of being a highly successful, can-do, corruption-free mayor. Plus, it could damage his historical legacy.
So, what about all this? Does Duggan’s explanation at his press conference sound plausible?
Answer 1): It’s sensible to take Duggan’s word for why he’s ended his campaign.
Many observers last year predicted this crash-and-burn, on the eve of the 2026 Detroit Regional Chamber of Commerce Mackinac Island Conference, as inevitable. There were simply too many obstacles — historical, monetary, and legal — for Duggan to overcome, they thought.
Just last week, here’s what TBR wrote about Duggan’s status in mid-May:
“In the general election for Governor, Glengariff Group pollster Richard Czuba notes that, in today’s polarized political environment, voters tend to “retreat to their corners” and hunker down with their traditional allegiances. That may explain why Duggan’s independent candidacy has at least temporarily stalled out, and he lags well behind Benson and either (John) James or (Perry) Johnson in the polls. That may not change between now and November.”
Duggan and his campaign manager son, Ed, appear to have reached the same conclusion, citing in particular the mounting hostility to Donald Trump that was coalescing (and boosting) opposition to the president that would dominate how the electorate votes in November, tuning everything else out (like independent candidates).
Coincidentally, two lawsuits were filed this past week challenging Michigan’s 130-year-old ban on fusion voting – a system that once allowed multiple political parties to nominate the same candidate for office. The combined votes, party by party, could be enough to surpass the votes for any candidate nominated by just one party, even a major one.
The first lawsuit, filed Wednesday by the newly-formed Michigan Common Sense Party (MCSP) in the Court of Claims, and the second suit, filed Thursday in Ingham County Circuit Court, argue that the ban violates the Constitution by suppressing the development and growth of new and minor parties as well as depriving voters of the opportunity to cast ballots for parties that represent their views.
In March of 1895, the Michigan Legislature, then controlled by Republicans and with a GOP Governor, banned fusion voting to minimize the role of third parties. A dozen years earlier, in the 1882 election, a Fusion ticket consisting of Democrats and Greenbackers, had elected Josiah Begole of Flint to be governor. He ousted a Republican incumbent and served a full two-year term.
Plaintiffs in the two lawsuits argue the fusion ban violates constitutional protections of free speech and free association as well as the fundamental right to vote. Fusion voting gives voters more freedom, more voice, and more meaningful choices without acting as spoilers, according to a co-founder of the MCSP.
But is it really accurate to claim that a third party candidate has never won any top office in Michigan, and can’t? For governor, yes, but what about President? Fact is, one Theodore Roosevelt won all of Michigan’s electoral votes in 1912 over Democrat Woodrow Wilson and incumbent President William Howard Taft. True, TR was sui generis and didn’t need money or favorable election laws to prevail. However, what about George Wallace in 1968 and Ross Perot in 1992 and 1996? The former took 10% of the vote against Richard Nixon and Hubert Humphrey in the 1968 general election on the “American Independent” ticket, and four years later easily won the Michigan Democratic primary The latter won over 19% of the vote in November of 1992 (as an Independent) and nearly 9% in 1996 (on the “Reform” ticket). They didn’t win it all, but they proved third party candidates can have some success, even when lacking immense funding and with the election laws stacked against them.
But isn’t that what it all comes down to? MONEY? Campaign cash was important in the past, yes, but it was nowhere near as significant as it is today. Duggan himself put his finger on that in his press conference — he said that he could see an independent or third party candidate at some point “breaking through’ nationally (or in Michigan), but he or she would have to be “self-funded.” Otherwise, the “national networks of major party donors” would crush any independent opposition.
All that said, at least one Michigan political observer, former state GOP executive director Jason Cabel Roe, thinks Duggan’s withdrawal was “premature” and that he’ll regret it somewhere down the campaign trail he has deserted — unless, of course, he gets a “better” job.
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Jocelyn Benson just won the governorship. The Duggan withdrawal is a huge blow to the Republicans this election cycle.
End of story.
Please tell me what you hear/ my sources say Benson/Singh Vs. James/Leonard
Benson/Chang vs. James/Nesbitt.