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You are here: Home / Uncategorized / THREE ANSWERS TO LAST WEEK’S BIG QUESTIONS

THREE ANSWERS TO LAST WEEK’S BIG QUESTIONS

April 25, 2022 by tbreport 4 Comments

Question 1): MIRS newsletter reported over the week-end that “The dirt Democrats will shovel on Kristina Karamo (the GOP’s preferred Secretary of State candidate) and Matt DePERNO, the likely GOP Attorney General nominee, is deep and Republicans activists know and are privately worried.” This sort of speculation about the negative effect Karamo/DePerno are likely to have on the Michigan Republican ticket this fall is nothing new — it’s been the incessant drumbeat of the Democrats and most of the news media. But how rooted in reality is such a disaster scenario?

Answer 1): It’s not. Democrats are cynically exploiting such speculation about an electoral apocalypse for the GOP because it serves their purposes, but the news media should know better. They don’t, though, either out of ignorance of Michigan’s political history or because they’re content to buy into the Democrats’ narrative, or both.  Fact is, whatever happens to Karamo and DePerno this fall, it’s unlikely to have any effect whatsoever on what happens to all the other races, from governor all the way to the bottom of the ballot — all anybody has to do is look at what’s happened in the past. If there is in fact a “red wave” building, incumbent Democrats Jocelyn Benson and Dana Nessel  are unlikely to be a “firewall” to stop it.

Let’s take two examples — in 1966, Republicans had a “wave” year long before the more recent 1994 and 2010 wave years. What they did then was amazing — the GOP picked up five seats in Congress (flipping the delegation), gained control of the state Senate, got a tie in the state House that led to a majority a few months later, swept all the education board seats, re-elected George Romney in a landslide, and knocked off a Supreme Court justice. But what DIDN’T Republicans win? Attorney General and Secretary of State, where incumbents Frank Kelley and James Hare easily won re-election. Yet these two races had ZERO impact on the rest of the ballot. Let’s turn it around, if we want to look at something more recent — 2006. It was a DEMOCRATIC “wave” year — nationally and in Michigan. Here, Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm was re-elected big-time, and Democrats recaptured control of the state House for the first time in eight years, and ALMOST got a tie in the Senate, which would have allowed them to control it with Lt. Gov. John Cherry’s tie-breaking vote. They swept the education board races and set themselves up to win a Congressional seat two years later. But guess who else won? Republican Attorney General Mike Cox and Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land. In other words, these two offices are likely to have NO effect on other races this fall — the general public doesn’t pay much attention to these officeholders (shocking! we know they think they’re major figures, right?), and there is little chance that what happens in their re-election efforts has much effect on anything else.

By the way, would a Tom Leonard nomination for the Michigan GOP have meant a greatly enhanced chance the Republicans could knock off Dana Nessel? And how about state Rep. Beau LaFave? Would he have had a greatly improved chance of beating Jocelyn Benson? Polling so far indicates that NO Republican challenger against either of these women would have much chance at all. Polling conducted by Target Insyght for MIRS a few weeks ago showed that DePerno was behind 49% to 31% to Attorney General Dana NESSEL in a head-to-head race. Tom LEONARD and Ryan BERMAN were both at 47% to 34%. Is that a big difference?

Secretary of State Jocelyn BENSON  was up 50% to 33% over Rep. Beau LAFAVE (R-Iron Mountain)  in a general election. Benson was up 50% to 25% against Karamo (See “Trump Has Big Bump For GOP Nod, Not So Much In General Election,” 4/6/22). Same question.

So, wizen up, Michiganders! Familiarize yourselves with the history, and do the math …

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Question 2): Amidst all the misplaced and largely irrelevant verbiage in the Mainstream Media’s (MSM) coverage of the April 23 Michigan Republican Party’s Endorsement Convention in Grand Rapids, who did delegates actually choose to run statewide for the GOP this fall besides the apparent Secretary of State nominee, Kristina Karamo, and Attorney General candidate Matt DePerno? Was there anything significant in the proceedings other than what the amazingly naive MSN wants readers, listeners and viewers to know? What impact might the Nov. 8 general election results have on governance of, say, the Supreme Court and the state (higher) education boards? And what about the unprecedented number of  Republican board incumbents and/or former members, including a Donald Trump appointee, being bumped off by unknown insurgents?

Answer 2): Michigan Supreme Court (two seats are at stake): Incumbent Brian Zahra, seeking his second full term, was renominated. Paul Hudson, a Miller Canfield appellate lawyer who has served as lead counsel in over 150 cases in the state appeals court system, was the GOP’s second nomination for the high bench. The two Republicans are vying to face the Democratic Party’s endorsees, incumbent Justice Richard Bernstein and State Rep. Kyra Harris Bolden (D-Southfield), in the general election. If elected, the 33-year-old Bolden would be the first female African-American ever to serve on the high court.  Keep in mind that the court now has a 4-3 Democrat/Republican tilt, so if Bernstein and Bolden both win, the Dem advantage would expand to 5-2. Conversely, if Zahra and Hudson both win, the GOP would regain control of the court, 4-3. If there’s a split verdict, which is probable (with the incumbents both winning), the D/R ratio would stay the same. These seats are for eight-year terms. The last time Zahra and Bernstein both ran was 2014, with incumbent Zahra finishing first and then-challenger Bernstein the runner-up. Remember, these candidates run “in a pack,” meaning that the top two finishers both win.

State Board of Education (two seats are up): The two Republican endorsements are vying to face incumbent Democrat Pamela Pugh as well as PhD. educator Mitchell Robinson, another Democrat, in the general election. Pugh is seeking reelection for a second term and Robinson, following a 40-year teaching career, is seeking a first term on the board. The two Republicans endorsed this past week-end were Linda Lee Tarver, an African-American from Lansing, and Tamara D. Carlone. These seats are also for eight-year terms. Democrats control this panel, 6-2, so they can’t do any better even if they finish 1-2 in the voting; if a Republican wins one of the top two spots, Democrats would recede to only a 5-3 majority, and if they lose both the panel would be deadlocked, 4-4 (it’s happened before, and the result wasn’t pretty). What’s most significant about Tarver’s and Carlone’s endorsements is that they beat a previous nominee, special needs activist Michelle Frederick, and, even more unusual, former board member Richard Zeile.

Tarver is a former Michigan Civil Rights Commissioner and “election integrity liaison” with the Michigan Department of State. She’s also a businesswoman, a parent advocate, and community activist for education, according to her website. Carlone is an education activist and a founding board member for the Michigan chapter of United States Parents involved in Education.

University of Michigan Board of Regents (two seats) Lena Epstein and Sevag Vartanian, two Southeast Michigan business personalities, received the Republican Party’s endorsements for the U-M Board of Regents. Again, a former board member was denied renomination. Andrea Fischer Newman, who previously served 16 years on the panel, could boast being a Trump appointee to a minor federal board but amazingly still lost.

Epstein is an Oakland Co. business owner and was joined on Saturday by Trump’s former attorney, Rudy Giuliani, who took to the stage in support of Epstein. Vartanian works in the financial sector and runs a boutique asset management firm, Vartanian Capital Management, according to his website.

The Democratic Party endorsed incumbents Kathy White and Mike Behm for the  U-M panel two weeks ago. White, elected in 1998, is seeking a fourth term, while Behm was first elected to the board in 2014. Since Democrats now control the board, 6-2, they can’t improve their edge, whereas the Republicans could boost their representation to either  5-3 or a 4-4 tie if they sweep one or both seats.

Michigan State University Board of Trustees (two seats) Medical academic Travis Menge and veteran Mike Balow were endorsed by the Republican Party for two seats on the MSU Board of Trustees, which Democrats now control, 5-3.

Menge received over 40% of the vote in the first round of voting, meaning he automatically earned the endorsement, and Balow earned 74% of the vote in the second round, beating still another longtime incumbent, Melanie Foster. Menge lives in Grand Rapids and works as a clinical professor in MSU’s School of Medicine. Balow served as a naval officer in the U.S. Navy for seven years.

The two Republican endorsements are facing the Democratic Party’s endorsees, Renee Knake Jefferson and Dennis Denno. Jefferson, appointed by Gov. Gretchen Whitmer in 2019, is running for a second term. Denno is seeking his first term, but he was a Democratic nominee for the same panel back in 2010. Since Jefferson is an incumbent, she must win for the Dems’ 5-3 edge to stay the same; if Denno also wins, the Democrats go to 6-2. If Republicans can sweep both seats, they’ll produce a 4-4 board split.

Wayne State University Board of Governors (two seats) Here’s the one board Republicans have NEVER controlled, and it’s now 6-2 D/R. Craig Wilsher and Holland physician Christa Murphy got the Republican nods Saturday for two seats on the WSU board. Wilsher is a former law enforcement officer and an adjunct college professor, according to his campaign website.

Two weeks ago, the Democratic Party endorsed Marilyn Kelly and first-time candidate Danielle Atkinson, founder of Mothering Justice, for the WSU board. One of the truly amazing statewide politicians of the past six decades, Kelly was an elected member in 1964 of the original state Board of Education who later went on to be an elected Court of Appeals judge and, still later, a Supreme Court Justice for 16 years, including Chief Justice. Most recently, she got herself elected to the WSU panel, to which she is now seeking a second term. If she and Atkinson both win, the board stays 6-2 D/R; if either loses, it becomes 5-3 D/R; if both lose, it’s a 4-4 split.

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Question 3):  Last Tuesday, April 19, was the filing deadline for all Michigan political candidates this year. Friday was the day for anybody to withdraw if s/he chose to. So, what happened of significance?

Answer 3):  First of all, withdrawals — Former state Rep. Martin Howrylak withdrew from a Troy-based state Senate 9th district race that on paper looks likely to be one of the four most hotly-contested contests this fall. Still, the GOP has a good chance to win it with another former legislator, Mike Webber.

State Rep. Padma KUPPA (D-Troy) is the only Democrat to file in this enclave. MIRS newsletter reported that Howrylak said he understands that the 9th is being viewed as a competitive district, but he sees this Oakland County seat as GOP territory, particularly with the current sentiment in the country. “Even though we’re in a time of economic prosperity,” he said. “The party in power will suffer mightily. This will be a Republican district this time around.” According to the Redistricting Commission base numbers, this is a 52.4% Republican-47.6% Democratic district.

Also, Detroit School Board member Georgia LEMMONS withdrew her candidacy in the 10th Senate District, meaning Sen. Paul WOJNO (D-Warren) will run unopposed in the Democratic primary in this 68.5% Democratic district. Lemmons is the wife of former Rep. Lamar LEMMONS, who is the chief of staff of a sitting senator, Sen. Betty Jean ALEXANDER (D-Detroit).

Also by last Friday’s deadline, former Rep. Klint KESTO backed out of running for the state Senate in the 13th District, a 53% Democratic district where Sen. Rosemary BAYER (D-Beverly Hills) is seeking re-election. The other two Republicans in the race are Northville Treasurer Jason RHINES and Brian WILLIAMS.

Here are some more tidbits: 18 Of 27 GOP House Members running for re-election will get primaries. A dozen incumbent House Democrats (out of 30) also will.

At the close of the April 19 filing deadline, Republicans were feeling the effects of voter enthusiasm running in their direction. Of the 690 partisan candidates filing for the August primary election, 371 of them are Republicans and 319 are Democrats — that’s only the second time in two decades where most of the filings statewide were by Republicans. The other time was 2010, when Republicans blitzed the Democrats in what then-President Barack Obama called “a shellacking.”

On the Republican side, Rep. Phil GREEN (R-Millington) is feeling it the most, as he’s running against seven primary opponents (remember, this is a newly reapportioned district). Rep. Greg VAN WOERKOM (R-Norton Shores) is running for re-election against Donald TRUMP-endorsed Mick BRICKER.

MIRS reports that Rep. Ann BOLLIN (R-Brighton Township) and Rep. Mike MUELLER (R-Linden) are running against candidates who have already been pictured with Rep. Matt MADDOCK (R-Milford) as part of the Trump team. Rep. Steve CARRA (R-Three Rivers) is a Trump-endorsed candidate himself, but most of the Republican incumbents with challenges are seeing them coming from their political right.

In all, 57 current members are seeking re-election. That will change to 60 this fall when four new candidates are sworn in. Mike HARRIS, Robert REGAN and Terence MEKOSKI have filed to run for re-election, but Jeffrey PEPPER, who is likely to win the 15th House District next month in a special election, did not file for office for the next term by the end of today’s filing deadline.

Other news bits from last week’s filing deadline include:

  • State Canvasser Norm SHINKLE, the former state senator (1983-90) and Republican Party 8th Congressional District chair, is running for the House in the 73rd House District, where Rep. Julie BRIXIE (D-Meridian Township) is slated to run. The Democratic base in this district centered around Okemos, a Lansing suburb, is 55%.

Shinkle is the canvasser who declined to certify the 2020 elections for Michigan, saying at the time he wanted a full review of Michigan’s elections processes and for the Legislature to do a deep dive into those processes.

* Former Rep. Kurt DAMROW, whose tumultuous first term in office ended in 2012 when he became the first GOP incumbent to lose a Republican primary since 1996, has filed for a second term in the new 98th House District in The Thumb.

Damrow last ran for the Legislature in 2014, when he finished fifth in a seven-person primary for the state House in a race won by Ed CANFIELD. In 2022, he’s running in a field of at least three other candidates: Sanilac County Drain Commissioner Greg ALEXANDER, former Sanilac County Commissioner Joe O’MARA and Cass City builder Westley TANASH.

* Former Detroit City Councilmember Roy McCALISTER, Jr., withdrew his candidacy in the heavily Democratic 6th district, meaning incumbent Rep. Regina WEISS (D-Oak Park) will be running against fellow Oak Park resident Mark MURPHY and Detroit residents Danille HALL and Myya JONES in the Democratic primary this August.

* Tom KUNSE, 50, a Grant Township (in Newaygo County) board member and youth sports referee, appears to be on his way to winning the heavily Republican 100th House District (62% base) after all of his presumed primary challengers withdrew, leaving him as the only GOP candidate. He has a Democratic opponent in Nate BAILEY.

Bizon Says No To Re-Election; Eight Former House Members Seek Senate

In the aftermath of being sentenced to 12-month probation for admittedly touching a hospital worker in an assault and battery case, Sen. John BIZON (R-Battle Creek) surprised the political world by announcing last week he will not run for a second term in the Senate.

With Bizon not running in the new 18th Senate District, Rep. Thomas ALBERT (R-Lowell) becomes the favorite as of now in this Republican-leaning district. Ryan MANCINELLI of Alto, an Army National Guard infantryman who has been a biomedical electronics technician for Spectrum Health since August 2015, has also filed as a Republican. Immigration attorney Kai DeGRAAF of Ada has filed as a Democrat.

In all, 17 current House members — including Albert — are running for the Senate in 2022, but none of them are the majority or minority leader or floor leader. Ten former House members are running for the Senate, some of whom filed unexpectedly.

Outside of Bizon, all of the Senators who are eligible to run for re-election are doing so with the exception of Sens. Curtis VANDERWALL (R-Ludington) and Doug WOZNIAK (R-Shelby Township) who are running for the state House and Sen. Adam HOLLIER (D-Detroit) who is running for Congress.

* Senate Minority Floor Leader Stephanie CHANG (D-Detroit) has a 2018 rematch as she seeks to retain a seat in the Senate. Former Rep. Alberta TINSLEY-TALABI is running against Chang in the new 3rd District along with two other Detroiters — Toinu REEVES and John ULAJ.

Chang won round one four years ago, 49.8% to 26.4% in a race more remembered for the campaign tactics of Bettie Cook SCOTT, who used ethnic slurs against Chang at polling locations.

This time around, Chang will no longer have the Detroit River-portions of her district. In 2018, Chang cleaned up in the Downtown area and points south. This time, Chang will be running in northern Detroit and where Tinsley-Talabi may be better known.

* Former Rep. Frank LIBERATI and Sen. Erika GEISS (D-Taylor) are the standout candidates in the 1st Senate District, which features three lesser-known Detroit candidates. A second Taylor candidate has also filed in this Democratic district. According to numbers from Target Insyght, 41.7% of this district is in Detroit and 22% of it is in Taylor. Another 10% is in Liberati’s home of Allen Park and 15% is in nearby Lincoln Park.

*After being disqualified from running for the House over an affidavit issue with the Macomb County Clerk’s office, Rudy GIULIANI election fraud witness Mellissa CARONE, filed to run in the 11th state Senate District as a Republican.

The 54%-46% Democratic district is currently represented by Sen. Michael D. MACDONALD (R-Sterling Heights). In short, Carone’s campaign finance paperwork was not straightened out when she signed an affidavit saying it was. Carone said she thought she had more lead time to take care of the issue, but she did not.

The winner of the MacDonald-Carone primary will face the winner of the Democratic primary featuring Macomb County Commissioner Veronica KLINEFELT, Eastpointe Mayor Monique OWENS and William COLLINS, the owner of a Roseville vending company.

* In District 6, Democratic incumbent Betty Jean Alexander, who won in a freak four years ago, will be running in a four-way Democratic primary against Detroit Police Commissioner Darryl D. BROWN, former Rep. Vicki BARNETT and Rep. Mary CAVANAGH (D-Redford). According to numbers from Target Insyght, 29.9% of the district is Detroit, 19% is from Redford, 18.8% is from Barnett’s hometown of Farmington Hills and 27.7% is from Livonia. The only Livonia candidate is the Republican.

* The potential Senate match-up between House Minority Leader Donna LASINSKI (D-Scio Twp.) and House Minority Floor Leader Yousef RABHI (D-Ann Arbor) isn’t happening after all. Both opted not to run for Senate in 2022.

The new District 14, which put both House leaders in the same district is a 55% Democratic lean district, but it will feature Washtenaw County Commission Chair Sue SHINK, former Jackson County Commissioner Kelsey HECK WOOD and Val Cochran TOOPS, a perennial candidate from Jackson in the Democratic primary.

* Rep. Sarah ANTHONY (D-Lansing) is all but guaranteed a seat in the Senate in 2023. She is running in the open 21st House district with no primary opposition in a district that has a 58.3% Democratic lean.

* Former Democratic Rep. Scott DIANDA will not be running for the state Senate as a Republican, as he apparently was considering. Dianda had a death in the family recently and has decided to pass on a run in elected politics at this point.

This leaves Sen. Ed MCBROOM (R-Waucedah Twp.) against a pair of political newcomers in Matthew FURYK and Kayla WIKSTROM to run against in the Republican primary. McBroom is the author of the Senate report that found no evidence that widespread election fraud tainted the 2022 election results. He has become a political target for former President Donald TRUMP.

* Former state Deputy Treasurer Madhu ANDERSON, wife of Patrick ANDERSON of the Anderson Economic Group, is running in the 28th Senate District primary as a Republican. Madhu Anderson ran for the House in 2018, but lost in the GOP primary to Rep. Graham FILLER (R-DeWitt).

The 28th District has a 55.5% Democratic base and features former House Minority Leader Sam SINGH.

* Conservative radio host “Trucker” Randy BISHOP filed to run in the 37th Senate District  — as a Democrat! Bishop quit the Republican Party in 2018 after he was removed as the Antrim County Republican Chair for supporting Dianda, a Democrat, over McBroom for Senate.

Bishop said many Democrats in Northern Michigan are conservative, so it made no difference to him to run as a Democrat. His primary opponents will be Harbor Springs oncologist Barbara CONLEY and Jim SCHMIDT, the retired head of the Northwest Michigan School for the Blind. On the Republican side is Triston COLE and Rep. John John N. DAMOOSE (R-Harbor Springs) and two others.

Bishop hosts a weekly radio program pm WAAM Talk 1600. His topics have included liberty, freedom, the 2nd Amendment, limited government and many more seemingly conservative topics. However, after the Republican Party “kicked him out” in 2018, he figured his commonsense approach will bridge the voting aisle.

“If all the Democrats support me in the primary, I can actually get a lot of Republicans and Independents to vote for me the general election, and I can flip the seat,” he said.

Outside of Cole, Tinsley-Talabi, Singh, Webber, Liberati, and Barnett, the other former House members running for the Senate in 2022 are Republican Tim KELLY (35th) and Democrat Joel SHELTROWN (36th).

The current House members seeking a seat in the Senate outside of Albert, Cavanagh, Kuppa and Damoose include Reps. Darrin CAMILLERI (D-Brownstown Twp.) (4th), Kevin HERTEL (D-St. Clair Shores) (12th), Pamela HORNBERGER (R-Chesterfield Twp.) (12th), Joseph BELLINO (R-Monroe) (16th), T.C. CLEMENTS (R-Bedford Twp.) (16th), John CHERRY (D-Flint) (27th), Tommy BRANN (R-Wyoming) (29th), David LAGRAND (D-Grand Rapids) (30th), Mark HUIZENGA (R-Walker) (30th), Terry SABO (D-Muskegon) (32nd), Roger HAUCK (R-Union Twp./Isabella Co.) (34th), Annette GLENN (R-Midland) (35th) and Michele HOITENGA (R-Manton/Wexford Co.) (36th).

Is this all clear now?

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Filed Under: Uncategorized

Reader Interactions

Comments

  1. Whuffagowie says

    April 25, 2022 at 9:59 am

    All the analysis in the world can’t stop an election from being stolen. The election belongs to whomever counts the votes.

    Reply
  2. Mike in TC says

    April 25, 2022 at 10:31 am

    Bill, thanks for the reassurance. You make a good case that the “new GOP” won’t scuttle the chances of replacing our unimpressive Governor, by nominating unelectable cult members for the offices of Secretary of State and Attorney General. Incumbents Benson and Nessel deserve to be replaced, but will get a free pass.

    Reply
  3. m says

    April 25, 2022 at 12:33 pm

    Your State board of education analysis is off. there are two dem seats up (one incumbent and one open). If the Rs win both, the board is a 4-4 split (and becomes dysfunctional).

    Reply
  4. alex9234 says

    May 2, 2022 at 1:16 am

    You forgot 1994. Engler was re-elected and Republicans recaptured the Secretary of State office with Candice Miller’s victory.

    In 2010 Republicans won the Governors race, along with the AG and SoS. Ditto 2014.

    Reply

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