The mega-publishing house Simon & Schuster announced April 5 that a Gov. Gretchen WHITMER “memoir” entitled ‘True Gretch’ will be published in July. The last Michigan governor to do this in the run-up to a presidential election was a man named George Romney back in 1967, slightly more than halfway through his gubernatorial tenure, as is Whitmer.And why is Whitmer’s book coming out in July, just weeks before the Democratic national convention? Is it because the publisher, and Whitmer, believe that if — perish forbid! — Joe Biden does NOT become the Democrats’ nominee, what other prospective candidates ‘waiting in the wings’ would have as good a shot at winning a swing state (like Michigan) as Whitmer would? So here is …:
Question 1): If Joe Biden, for whatever reason, ends up not running for re-election, where would Gov. Gretchen Whitmer rank as his potential successor?
Answer 1): The short answer is that the rank is LOW, and the odds are LONG. However, those would be the best words to describe the chances of every other aspirant as well, including Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom. And, of course, that assumes Whitmer even wants the job. For a longer answer, here’s what Mark Grebner of Practical Political Consulting told MIRS newsletter last week: “If Biden drops out now, after clearly having control of the convention, it will be unprecedented in the era since primary elections became dominant in the nomination process. If it happens, the timing of the announcement will be critical. Will it be before, during, or after the convention? And will Biden himself be in a condition to control events? Will there be a scramble for control, by the DNC or Biden staff?
“In any case, the process of selecting and designating a replacement won’t involve the public, other than as spectators,” Grebner continued. “The selection will have been worked out before the announcement that Biden is stepping down. If Whitmer has any shot, it will depend on working those behind-the-scenes players. I have no idea what factors are in play, or who they may favor. If Biden becomes unable to run, and no successor is immediately anointed, the struggle for control is likely to leave the Democratic Party in shambles.”
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Question 2): Now that the Michigan Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission (MICRC) has redrawn its state House of Representatives maps to the satisfaction of a three-judge federal panel, the MICRC says that it is ready to tackle the redrawing of state Senate districts, because the judges ruled that that map produced by the MICRC is also unconstitutional. Is it likely or unlikely that the redrawing of Michigan’s state Senate districts for the 2026 elections will benefit the Republicans more than the redrawing of the House districts did for 2024?
Answer 2): No Senate maps could be worse than the redrawn House maps are for “improved” Republican chances. In other words, the GOP can’t expect anything better from any new maps than it got in 2022 unless, miraculously, a new district is created wholly within Macomb Co. that they could win under perfect circumstances.
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Question 3): Have Michigan Republicans missed an opportunity by not adequately publicizing the fact that the 2022 state election played out on political maps drafted by the MICRC that were in violation of the U.S. Constitution?
Answer 3): That ship has sailed, but it wouldn’t have made any difference if it had never left port. This sort of “opportunity” can never become a winning issue in a political campaign — it’s too obscure to matter to voters. Besides, any chance Republicans could have profited from noting that the MICRC’s map drawing process was flawed and unconstitutional went a-glimmering because the Michigan GOP was under incompetent leadership at the top with Kristina Karamo, who didn’t know how to handle the issue. What’s more, only a portion of the maps centered in Detroit were deemed unconstitutional by the court, which Republicans can never win, anyway. The judges ruled that 90% of the state House and Senate districts drafted by the MICRC were OK.
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Question 4): Is it too late for President Biden to make himself look stronger on the illegal immigration issue?
Answer 4): Almost certainly, unless Biden has a “St. Paul struck down on the road to Damascus” moment, and dramatically changes his border policy. It’s hard to see that happening.
John C Stewart says
Whitmer and the Democrats have some significant Challenges this next six months. #1.)Michigan would have to vote for Biden over Trump. #2.) . Slotkin would have to be elected to US Senate #3.)Democrats in the State House would have to maintain their majority. If these three things occur, the Michigan Republican Party will have almost bottomed out.
John Smith says
More Garbage Takes From a Garbage Man how Should Have Retired Twenty Years Ago!!!!!1!
Leanne says
I remember Gretchen’s late mother, Sharon Whitmer, when she practiced law after graduating from Cooley Law School in Lansing in the late 1970s and her dad was later president of Blue Cross Blue Shield. Both were excellent role models for her.
What has impressed me most about Governor Whitmer is ability to lead during a crisis and to balance competing interests – that is the sign of a good leader. Her appearance at Hash Bash in Ann Arbor during her 2018 gubernatorial campaign was a stroke of genius.
The powerful insiders in the DNC would need to rally around a presidential candidacy for her to have any reasonable chance at securing the Dem nomination for president.
Tim Sullivan says
Nice article, Bill.
Whitmer is ambitious and would like to be either President or VP. Why else would she want to gut the Auditor General? If you defang and nearly decapitate the one branch of government she does not control, the less likelihood of bad news about your governance of coming out.
QUESTION 1: Short of some sort of health disaster, Biden is seeking re-election and Harris will be his VP. And should something like that happen, the presidential nominee if Biden can’t run will be Harris. And Mark Grebner is right. Should this happen we will NOT be involved in the process.
QUESTION 2: You’re right. The new maps won’t help the GOP unless some of the marginal districts get truly bad candidates put up by the Democrats. The Democrats did their homework and got control of the MICRC. The maps favor the Democrats and will do so after the senate maps are also redone. The only real question will be if the MICRC will try once again to raise their pay. I’m pretty sure that Juanita Curry will try again.
QUESTION 3: You’re spot on right concerning question 3. Karamo was unable, or unwilling, to raise the issue and make a stink about it. Not that it would have made any difference as the media did not care (and probably still does not). Karamo spent her time and energies continuing a political fight she should have realized she won when she was elected. She didn’t and now she is out of that job. And there is precious little Pete Hoekstra can do about it. Unless Curry gets her colleagues to give themselves another significant pay hike.
QUESTION 4: You’re spot on about immigration as well. President Biden will switch his position on illegal immigration the day after he switches his position on abortion and throws out the pro Hamas wing of the Democratic Party. And if there is a “Saul on the road to Damascus” moment, unlike Saul who changed and became Paul, I suspect Biden will say no. He has all the tools that President Obama had when he deported over 3,000,000 illegals. He chooses not to enforce the law. And that is not going to change.
Cheryl L. Krapf-Haddock says
Great Comments Mr Sullivan in follow up to this week’s excellent Ballenger Report.
Tim Sullivan says
Thank you, Cheryl.
Leanne says
Gerrymandering worked again in the Mai Xiong-Ronald Singer race where the gerrymandered House district dipped into Detroit.
Detroit voters supported the Democrat nominee by a 95%-4% margin over Ron Singer, an engineer and former member of the Michigan Republican Party State Committee. Only 6% of registered voters actually cast ballots in the election. Warren voters went for Mai Xiong by a 60-40 margin
On Detroit inner-city precinct literally had not a single person cast an in-person ballot during the election. Precinct workers in Detroit were as lonely as the Maytag repairman.
Mai Xiong becomes the first Hmong Laotian to be elected to a state legislature in the U.S. She bade farewell to her colleagues and staff at the Macomb County Board of Commissioners as her BOC seat is now vacant.
David L Richards says
I would be happy, no, overjoyed, by the replacement of both presidential candidates. I did not expect Biden to run again, although I figured he would look like a candidate in order to avoid being treated as a lame duck, but would announce in mid-winter he wouldn’t run again. At this point, he is the candidate and I think a last minute back out is highly unlikely. As far as Whitmer is concerned, she may be thinking more about 2028 than 2024. Biden cannot totally turn around the immigration issue, but the Republican’s failure to pass the recent negotiated immigration proposal will be used to mitigate the criticism of Biden on immigration.
Leanne says
What has stunned me is that no credible challenger has gained traction to oppose Biden in the Democratic primaries.
Eugene McCarthy used the Vietnam issue to oppose LBJ in 1968, The closest thing the Dems have created over the Gaza crisis is the “Uncommitted” primary vote.
Immigration, inflation and Gaza are the three issues that are sinking Biden right now.
Jack Lessenberry says
What no one is mentioning is that Gretchen Whitmer has spent her entire career and essentially her entire life in East Lansing/Lansing, If she does have national ambitions, a place in he Biden administration, assuming there will be a second term, seems like an essential start for her to be taken seriously on the national stage,
Tim Sullivan says
Unless Jimmy Carter is her political role model.
Leanne says
Jimmy carter was perceived as as an outsider vis-a vis Washington D.C. – so is Whitmer.
Most state elected officials – and voters – despise the D.C. power structure.
dan murphy says
Regarding Question 1.The “Deep State”, under the dictatorship of the Progressive ideologues ,and the powerful influence of Big Tech moguls such as Mark Zuckerburg, will determine Whom would replace Mr. Biden should He drop out of the 2024 Presidential race . The former Democratic Party no longer represents the best interests of small Business Owners ,nor of the Middle Class. The Constitutional Republic and Free Enterprise system is under attack and few within the Party have the “back bone ” to defend it .No one will challenge the corruption within the Deep State .
Royal says
Great questions, Bill,
Wrt Q#1: I actually rate the Gretch’s chances quite high, (in 2028), about equal to Newsom’s right now. She’ll soar higher than Granholm even without past episodes of the Dating Game to help propel her. But, no, I don’t see functionally impaired Biden dropping out. Dem candidates are simply icons, larger than life, and Joe is actually getting a sympathetic rebound. Susan Rice is the real president.
Wrt Q#2: I am old enough to recall the ’60’s, during the Cavanaugh and Gribbs terms, when one night an arson fire/fire bomb fire was reported, then the next night it would be reported that the fire occurred in a suspected Republican campaign office. This happened time and again. Republicans used to keep a presence in Detroit just to pull some of the total votes away in statewide elections. Interesting you can’t find any of this reported on the internet. Republicans haven’t dared campaign downtown seriously since those days.
Point is, no, I don’t see the new maps making any difference till Republicans decide to get serious, and risk life and limb, to make a presence in Democratic strongholds.
Wrt Q#3: Concur. That ship has sailed. Plenty of other topics to challenge Dems on, like, why don’t Republicans franchise multiple TBRs to counter the MI-MSM? Or something like that, you know what I mean . . . . The best way to counter Caesar is to convince the electorate you have something better to offer . . . then start winning some elections. Shouldn’t matter the districting.
Wrt Q#4: Ha ha, you funny! The tragedy is watching the Republicans trying ever which way trying to let him off the hook. Why in the world give them more $$ just to keep more crony bookkeepers employed logging in more future Dem voters . . . sheesh
Keep ’em coming Bill
Leanne says
The reason that the Republican Party has not seriously delved into Democratic strongholds in Michigan is that they apply a cost-benefit analysis and conclude that monies and other party resources are best expended elsewhere.
In the last several years, there have been attempts to reach out to minority segments and these have had some success. One is the Chaldean-American community. Recently Michigan GOP vice-chair Bernadette Smith arranged the visit of Michael Flynn to the City of Hamtramck where he addressed the Yemeni-American community.
Royal says
. . . and just how do Molotov cocktails figure into that cost-benefit analysis ;)? I was young but seems Republicans actually won a state election or two during the Romney era by the Detroit vote margin . . .
I hear you wrt the Chaldean and Yemeni communities; I used to work with them; social conservatives all. Seems like a tight race like between Trump v Biden, the Republicans would want to go after some of those . . .
Matt Crehan says
Answer 1) Yes, wHitler wants the job, however she is not high enough up the Totem Pole to get it. That honor goes to Gruesome Newsome. Why else would he be sent as an emissary to China? Usually that chore goes to the VP or a cabinet official if DEMentia Joe can’t seem to find his way to China. (Of course, DEMentia Joe can’t even find his way off stage, much less find his way to China. When he was given talking points in a recent meeting with the Grand Poo Bah of Iraq, contained within these notes were instructions to ‘pause’; proof of his senility is palpable.)
However, wHitler is within spitting distance of being named Gruesome’s VP. The reason here is obvious. Kamal-hoe, Willie Brown’s concubine, also hails from the land of Fruits and Nuts so she can’t remain on the ticket as VP if Gruesome gets the coveted position. And its not as crazy as it sounds. Alzheimer’s disease is progressive, with the symptoms becoming worse as time goes by. (Not to be confused with what Sam played again.)
DEMentia Joe will most certainly decline precipitously by the time the democrat convention begins in little more than four months. So someone could simply put any paper in front of him with instructions to sign it, and just like that he is no longer a contender for another four years at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. Look for this to happen about five minutes before the convention begins in Chicago. The new duo will then be given a rousing send off and the media will make this the top story long after it becomes worn out.
After this July, I’ll be waiting for the sequel to wHitler’s book, entitled “True Grinch”; a morbid tale of a ruthless dictator who closed down an entire state while her husband went boating, she went to Florida, many small businesses were bankrupted, seniors were murdered in nursing homes and numerous high school students committed suicide. It is guaranteed to outsell the first edition.
Answer 2) If this occurs, it will be by accident. The MICRC is controlled by back-stage puppet masters who are pulling the strings of the Muppets; that explains why the State Rep districts had to be redrawn. Now they have much more time to cure their errors so don’t expect anything miraculous to emanate from that body. In fact, their proposed new Senate districts may end up in Federal Court as well. What can you expect from a bunch who works part-time and continually salivates for a salary increase?
Answer 3) Yes, this was a missed opportunity, along with many other missed opportunities presented to the MIGOP over the past year. If the supposed leaders of MIGOP had been manning the battle stations, they could have brought out other deficiencies with the MICRC maps. Just take a look at how other core cities were chopped up and you’ll see a pattern. But since Kristina Karamo had all the effectiveness of the late State Rep Ethel Terrell, what can you expect?
Answer 4) Actually not. But to be successful, DEMentia Joe would have to place troops on the border with orders to Shoot-To-Kill any illegal alien trespasser who so much as sets a toe on USA soil. Instead, look for this Senile Old Fool to issue arms to the hordes of two-legged locusts invading America, ostensibly for ‘self-protection’.
Leanne says
I believe Kamala Harris will remain on the ticket as the Dem VP nominee.
Harris was not a good choice in 2020 – but neither was Dan Quayle in 1988.
10x25mm says
Will the subtitle of Gov. Whitmer’s new book be ‘Death To America’? She has been equivocating on the most important issue to Democrats – both those for and against Israel – since October 7th.
The Freedom Road Socialist Organization and 75 other Democratic grass roots organizations plan to disrupt the the August Democratic National Convention in Chicago with massive street protests. Michigan is not far from Chicago. This political conflagration is bound to influence the November 5th General Election outcome here; including the down ballot races.
How would Gov. Whitmer be any more successful than President Biden at binding this schism in the Democratic party? Will Rep. Slotkin be able to avoid this maelstrom?
Leanne says
Excellent points – there is a huge irony that Chicago is having a Democratic National Convention when the Gaza issue is tearing apart America nearly as much as Vietnam did in 1968.
I was thinking that some leftists would wax nostalgiac for that era and organize counter-demonstration activities as the “Chicago 7” did in 1968. Apparently some resurrection of that theme is in the works.
The key issue is how the Democrats will approach the Gaza-Israel issue. Elissa Slotkin has retreated from a 6% lead in pre-October 7th polling to being in a statistical dead heat with Mike Rogers. “Genocide Joe” has recently regained some his lost ground in presidential polling.
In 1968, Hubert Humphrey called for a cease-fire in Vietnam and an end to bombing the north. By doing so he gained former rival Sen. Eugene McCarthy’s endorsement and cut Nixon’s polling lead by 16% as anti-war demonstrators stopped shadowing him at his campaign stops. Of course, it was too little tool late for HHH as Nixon was elected in November.
Biden seems wishy-washy and non-committal toward resolving the Gaza War – and he will lose the election unless he can draw up and effectuate a plan that will mollify progressives as well as Arab-American and pro-Israel constituencies.
Slotkin has extensive national security experience and did make some smart moves:
(A) paid a publicized friendly visit to a Lansing mosque in the days following October 7th;
(B) supported federal appropriations for aid to Gazans;
(C) denouncing Rep. Tim Walberg’s inflammatory statements to use “Hiroshima” tactics in Gaza;
(D) avoiding highly-publicized appearances at pro-Israel events that may inflame progressive Dems;
(E) accurately comparing Gaza to Falluja in Iraq as a tough battlefield to conquer.
America in Biden and Trump have two of the worst presidential candidates ever presented by Democrats and Republicans. It is a wonder that the Green Party and Libertarians have not been polling better – and why GOP or Democrats cannot come up with someone who can credibly oppose these two obviously unqualified “presumptive nominees”.
The national committees of the Dems and GOP need to come up with a better system than one that permits incompetent candidates like these from receiving the nomination.