Who will win Michigan U.S. Senate seat in 2026? Here are the odds!
Question 1): Early this past week, U.S. Senator Gary Peters stunned the Michigan political world by announcing that he won’t seek re-election in 2026. So, who will run — be it Democrat or Republican — to replace him? Since Peters’s shock online message, both the legacy and social media have spawned a frenzy of predictions and cryptic posts suggesting possible candidacies.
Then there is state Sen. Mallory McMORROW (D-Royal Oak). McMorrow confirmed to MIRS newsletter that she is considering a run for governor or U.S. Senate in 2026, after building up her name ID substantially in the last three years, becoming a Democratic National Convention (DNC) speaker last summer. She will also continue promoting her “Hate Won’t Win” political message on Mar. 25, with the release of her book “Hate Won’t Win: Find Your Power and Leave This Place Better Than You Found It.” Says McMorrow: “That’s always been what drives me – where does my skill set make the most sense? I’m going to be sitting down with a lot of people who I trust and respect over the next however many days, and see what makes sense.”
Let’s not forget former U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete BUTTIGIEG, appointed to that post by ex-President Joe Biden. “Mayor Pete”(of South Bend, Indiana, where he served in that role), moved to Traverse City a couple of years ago, at least partly because that’s where his spouse, Chasten, hails from (he graduated from Traverse City West High School). Buttigieg was already reportedly considering a run for Michigan governor, but now he now he says he won’t do that. Instead, he says he’s thinking about the Senate. Some consider being a U.S. senator the best job in American politics. Instead of a governorship, which is limited to two four-year terms, a U.S. senator can serve an unlimited number of six-year terms. But Buttigieg, 43, who is viewed as one of the best retail politicians in America, is widely believed to be eyeing another run for president in 2028. If he ran for the Michigan Senate seat in 2026, and lost, he’d be permanently damaged politically. Even if he won, could he get away with running for president just two years into his term? Come to think of it, that’s the same situation with Whitmer if she, too, might want to take a crack at the presidency in 2028, which has been widely speculated.
Of course, we can’t rule out Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist, II, who now has THREE offices he might run for — Mayor of Detroit this year or either the governorship or the U.S. Senate in 2026. POLITICO reports that the Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association (yes, there is such a thing) is supposedly prepared to spend seven figures on Gilchrist should he opt for the U.S. Senate race.
Even polarizing Attorney General Dana Nessel, who has ruled out a run for governor, hasn’t categorically stated yet that she won’t run for the Senate. There are also a couple of Democratic Congresswomen in the conversation — Haley Stevens of Birmingham and U.S. Rep. Hillary SCHOLTEN (D-Grand Rapids). Scholten posted online that, while there are many conversations to come, “we know that Trump won Michigan, but candidates like myself won in tough places, as well.” Physician Abdul El-Sayed, the Wayne Co. health director who lost a gubernatorial primary to Whitmer in 2018, is also pondering a bid for the Senate.
Let’s switch to the Republican side, starting with U.S. Rep. John James of Shelby Twp. After running competitive multi-million dollar U.S. Senate bids in 2018 and 2020 against Democratic incumbents (Debbie Stabenow and Peters), speculation has abounded that he might want to run for governor. Now, however, there is talk that he might instead seek a “promotion” to the U.S. Senate from his current House perch.
It’s more likely that Mike ROGERS –- the Republicans’ 2024 U.S. Senate nominee who lost the closest Senate race in the country last fall by a fraction of one percent -– will want to run to replace Peters. He’s been encouraged by the Republican Senate Campaign Committee in Washington, D.C., to do so. At the end of the week, he seemed to be edging toward an announcement that he’s IN.
Hard to believe that auto dealer Kevin Rinke, who lost a GOP primary for governor in 2022, would be interested in the U.S. Senate this time, but he said on X that “Michigan is open for the taking. Stay tuned.” And if Rinke is interested, some thought multi-millionaire Perry Johnson might be, too, but he says NO. Johnson tried to run for governor in 2022 but was denied ballot access because of fraudulent petition signatures and then flamed out as a presidential candidate in 2024.
Republicans’ 2022 gubernatorial nominee Tudor DIXON – a rising conservative media personality – said in a post about Peters’s announcement that “I appreciate the outpouring of support and am considering our future very seriously.”
Some even think the name “Posthumus” still has a ring to it. Dick Posthumus was Lieutenant Governor (1999-2003) under Gov. John Engler, and he was the state Senate majority leader and the Republicans’ 2002 gubernatorial nominee against Democrat Jennifer Granholm, who beat him in a fairly close race. Dick’s daughter is Lisa POSTHUMUS LYONS, a former state representative who is now the clerk of Kent County, the state’s fourth largest county with 661,354 residents. Now, Lisa’s brother and Dick’s son, Bryan POSTHUMUS (R-Rockford), is the majority floor leader in the state House of Representatives. Most recently, he’s been promoting his proposed amendment to the state constitution mandating voter IDs. Hey, the Posthumuses are born to run — might Bryan be tempted to take a crack at the U.S. Senate? If he could get the cash, maybe, but that’s highly unlikely.
Then there is ultra-conservative state Sen. Jonathan LINDSEY (R-Brooklyn), a Yale graduate like U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance. Lindsey managed to get endorsed by President Donald TRUMP — one of the few state legislators in the country to pull that off — when he ran for the state Senate in 2022, upsetting Republican incumbent Kim LASATA in the GOP primary. Lindsey’s wife, Allison –– whom Lindsey calls his “not-so-secret weapon” — is the daughter of one of Trump’s economic advisors, Arthur LAFFER.
Some have flagged online that U.S. Rep. Bill HUIZENGA (R-Zeeland) could be a Peters replacement candidate, and he hasn’t yet taken his name out of consideration..
One who has already bowed out is former NFL coach and NBC football analyst Tony Dungy, whose name was floated even though he’s long been a resident of Tampa, Florida, and has a large family there. Dungy was brought up in Jackson, Michigan, where he graduated from high school. He became the first African-American head coach to win a Super Bowl (with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, in 2007), and he also coached the Indianapolis Colts. However, Dungy spiked the rumors at week’s end, saying he still loves Michigan but he’s never going to run for political office.
Fact is, anyone who was talked about as an anticipated Michigan gubernatorial candidate has now become a likely U.S. Senate candidate even though the two jobs require very different skill sets.
So, assuming that everybody but Whitmer ends up running, what are the early odds on all these characters’ chances of success at winning their party’s primary election in August of next year?
Answer 1): There hasn’t been an election year in Michigan when both an open governorship and an open U.S. Senate seat were up for grabs at the same since 1886, but there is a caveat to that. In 1886, U.S. Senators were elected by the Michigan Legislature, not by a direct vote of the people. In 1886, the GOP-controlled Legislature in effect appointed Republican Francis B. Stockbridge to the U.S. Senate while Republican Cyrus G. Luce was elected Governor in a statewide general election. The first U.S. Senator nominated in a direct primary election didn’t come until 1910 when Republican William E. Townsend got the nod and then, in 1916, became the first Michigan senator to be elected (or, more accurately, re-elected) by a direct vote of the people after passage of the 17th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.
Furthermore, there have not been back-to-back elections (two straight election cycles) with open U.S. Senate seats in Michigan since 1886 and 1888. Stockbridge won in 1886 and, in 1888, Republican James McMillan was appointed by the GOP-controlled Legislature.
Therefore, in 2026, for the first time since the 19th Century, history will repeat itself with respect to the above two paragraphs.
In 2026, here are the out-of-the-gate odds for the Democratic nomination, assuming all these potential candidates actually go through with it (most won’t): McMorrow, 2-1 (meaning there are two chances she WON’T get the nomination vs. one that she will); Buttigieg, 3-1 (he’s got one chance in four); Nessel, 6-1 (one in seven); Gilchrist, 8-1 (you get the picture); Stevens, 10-1; El-Sayed, 12-1; Scholten, 15-1.
For the Republicans, if everybody mentioned above runs (not gonna happen) the odds are: Rogers, 2-1 (same as McMorrow); James, 3-1 (same as Buttigieg); Dixon, 6-1; Lindsey, 8-1; Rinke, 10-1; Posthumus and Huizenga, 20-1.
Most likely match-up in November general election, 2026: Rogers (R) vs. McMorrow (D).
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Wow! What a feast for political pundits and media.
My best guess: Rogers v. Buttigieg
Mike in TC says
(Edit)And the political base of a former mayor of a town in Indiana is what?
All the Chicago money in Saugatuck.
There is absolutely no chance of McMorrow taking the US Senate seat from Mayor Pete.
I met Mallory McMorrow in 2018 when she was an automotive designer campaigning at the Troy Civic Center shortly before she faced off against incumbent GOP state senator Marty Knollenberg in the general election. Nobody challenged her in the Democratic Party primary – nobody felt Knollenberg could lose.
She had no prior experience in running for office. I asked if she felt she could win. She said it would be hard since her district leaned Republican and Knollenberg was a big name in Oakland County. She was extensively campaigning door-to-door and was surprised at the positive reactions she was receiving from conservative residents. She gave me one of her campaign buttons – that did NOT mention she was a Democrat.
Knollenberg had taken his state senate seat in 2014 by knocking off GOP heavyweights Chuck Moss and Rocky Raczkowski in a contentious GOP primary and later defeated the Democrat nominee in the November general election by 16 percentage points.
McMorrow stunned political observers by beating Knolenberg by 3 percentage points in the November 2018 general election. It was the same election cycle that AOC beat a political insider in NY.
McMorrow’s status as an ordinary citizen running against a political insider resonated with voters. McMorrow continues to attack the toxic political environment and has achieved grassroots support. She has an excellent shot at a U.S. Senate Democratic Party nomination in 2026.
Knollenberg lost a 2012 race for treasurer and even a 2013 race for mayor of Troy. His comeback in 2014 was arguably a fluke. And the demographics of Troy and that part of Oakland County have changed so much that the once-formidable “Knollenberg name” was no longer a big deal.
And McMorrow, like Slotkin in 2018, also won because that was an awful year. It was the obituary for Oakland County Republicans. Mike Bishop lost that year too.
Mike Rogers couldn’t win when all the stars were aligned for him and Republicans in 2024. 2026 will almost certainly be like 2014. Republicans get the governorship but Democrats take the Senate.
Elissa Slotkin was initially considered virtually unbeatable with $60 million in campaign funding and labor union endorsements.
$22 million in contributions from a national republican organization made the race competitive – but Rogers still fell short on Election Day.
Rogers lost for several reasons:
1) He didn’t get into the race until September 2023. That was 7 months after Slotkin got in and cleared the field. She didn’t have a serious primary opponent.
2) Rogers last ran for office in 2012. He was like Jeb Bush in 2016. Very rusty. He moved to Florida and didn’t involve himself in Michigan. I remember his infamous Off the Record interview in early 2023 when he admitted he wasn’t a Michigan resident.
3) Rogers never had a real campaign organization. How many Rogers staff were there? Half-dozen?
4) Rogers never recovered from the attack rans that Sandy Pensler ran in April-May-June 2024. That’s why 100,000+ Trump voters never cast their ballot for Rogers.
5) Rogers and Republicans waited too long. Absentee ballots dropped around September 23 if I remember correctly. They should have been on the air and mailing voters in August and early September.
“Rogers never had a real campaign organization…..”
I noticed this at both GOP gatherings and at the MIGOP convention.
I NEVER saw Rogers in person at any Metro Detroit functions in 2024 until Election Day when he and his wife made a BRIEF appearance at the Suburban Showplace Collection Republican gathering in Novi.
I ONCE saw a young Rogers campaign volunteer at a local GOP event in Rochester.
At the August of 2024 MIGOP convention in Flint Rogers had three or four young volunteers at a single table passing out campaign material. Sunny Reddy – the GOP candidate for Wayne State University Board of Governors had over 20 volunteers at the convention and appeared personally.
In retrospect, the fact that Mike Rogers only lost by 20,000 votes statewide to Slotkin was actually a good showing given his lack of any discernable campaign staff presence.
The GOP needs to do a post-mortem analysis on why Mike Rogers lost. 2026 is around the corner and another U.S. Senate seat is opin in Michigan.
It was clearly a winnable seat and I believe Mike’s failure to campaign in Metro Detroit with the same consistency as Donald Trump likely made a difference.
Trump won Michigan by the largest margin for a GOP presidential nominee since George H. W. Bush in 1988.
Pres.Trump built a formidable campaign organization in Metro Detroit in 2024.
Interesting and informative article, Bill. And like Captain Renault, I am shocked, shocked to find gambling going on (though I have no winnings to collect). Too bad Dungy won’t move home (or back). He’s quite articulate and would have made an interesting candidate. Though I suspect if he had a choice between politics and playing quarterback again with a porous offensive line, he’d choose the latter.
As for the Democrats, I am not sure how McMorrow gets 2-1 odds over Mayor Pete unless the oddsmakers feel Mayor Pete want to be Governor Pete or McMorrow has lots and lots of money. Buttigieg since running for President once before should have a greater access to the donor class. And running as the first gay man for the US Senate would generate more positive PR in a Democratic race than negative.
Gilchrist I can’t figure out. He wants a new job. I don’t see him winning the mayoralty in Detroit. For Governor, he has to take on Benson. That would be a fun race to watch, but where does he get the money? And the same question would apply to the Senate race. Though you can win being outspent (see Donald Trump and the Michigan House candidates in the last election), it is hard. Maybe moving back to Detroit and taking on Thanadar for the US House?
Now Nessel would be interesting, though I suspect she would prefer to run for the State Supreme Court for Clement’s seat as Clement will not get renominated at the GOP state convention. But Nessel battling Mayor Pete would suck lots of the oxygen out of the room. Whether that would help McMorrow or not, I don’t know.
I doubt Stevens and Scholten will run for the Senate. Stevens given a very safe Democratic district by the MiCRC won by 18 points. Scholten’s district, a bit less favorable, gave her about a win by about 10%. And Dr. El-Sayed would be an afterthought. Sorry, doc.
For the GOP it’s easy, the one who gets Trump’s imprimatur wins.
Assuming he sits it out, having no Dungy gives Rogers the best shot. His political career has been in the legislature and I really don’t see him wanting to run for executive office.
James won by 6% or so in his rematch with Marlinga. Another senate run is possible, but does he want to go a third time? An outside chance that he runs for governor?
Huizenga won his House seat by about 12%, so seeking re-election, especially if he likes his committee assignments and any leadership roles in the House or committees makes the most sense, probably the reason for the 20-1 odds.
As for the others, I think they like the publicity, but that’s about it. Dixon would not have won the GOP nomination for governor if Chief Craig and Perry Johnson had not imploded their own campaigns over signature screw ups. Rinke can spend money (his own), but would he rather run for Senate or Governor. I don’t know. And I suspect that Lindsey’s father-in-law would even recognize that a run for the US Senate would not be a good
Oops. Hit the send button before finishing my last sentence. The last sentence should read: And I suspect that Lindsey’s father-in-law would even recognize that a run for the US Senate would not be a good return on investment for his son-in-law.
Mea culpa.
Rogers vs Buttigieg?!? Oh, gag me!
None of the above (NotA)
Oh, twisting my arm, are you?
OK, how about, John James vs Shri Thanedar? No? Then how ’bout, Dr Sherry O’Donnell vs Mallory McMorrow?
No, no, definitely, NotA! What do the DeVos’s and Soros’s say?
I admire Tony Dungy picking reality over ego.
Sen .Peters has performed an exceptional , non-partisan Public Service .However One wishes Mr. Peters had been more vocal to fight the Woke ideology which has seized control of the Democratic Party . The voices of the Mainstream is no longer being tolerated nor represented ,it appears. The 2024 election results appear to be a result of alienation and rejection . The message has been sent and is still being ignored. The Party is in need of Leadership transformation ..
The upcoming convention for Michigan Democrats will pit the Old Guard Democrats led by Curtis Hertel Jr, against the progressives, led by Al Williams.
Hertel has patched together a slate that includes many black and Arab candidates for party office in the hope of cementing party unity. The progressives are backing Williams.
Michigan Democratic Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist II ruled out a U.S. Senate run today. He is running for Governor.
Abdulrahman M. El-Sayed, the director of Wayne County’s Department of Health, Human, and Veterans Services is floating a run for Senate. He ran second in the 2018 Democratic gubernatorial primary, losing to Whitmer and beating Thanedar.
I cannot picture either Garlin Gilchrist or Dr. El-Sayed receiving significant vote totals outstate that would be needed to mount a serious run for governor.
I can recall Jennifer Granholm garnering only 45% of the vote outside of Metro Detroit and that was enough to get her elected for governor.
Gilchrist could not even defeat Janice Winfrey for Detroit City Clerk in 2017 and has never run for elected office otherwise outside of being the running mate of Gretchen Whitmer.
Dr. El-Sayed – on the other hand – ran a competitive and well-organized race when he ran for governor in 2018. Did very well in Metro Detroit.
It’s going to be an amazing 2026 Election year and, it’s already beginning. It sort of starts this November with Detroits open Mayors seat. Then in 2026 with an Open Senate AND Governor seat. I really think Mayor Mike Duggan is going to really stir the pot in the Governors race and very possibly could win it. I can’t see Lt. Gov. Gilchrist running for much or, winning on his own. He just does not have the personality and ability to reach the voters out of the Detroit Metro Area, Up North and the U.P. I can see Mayor Pete being a strong candidate for either Senate or Governor, but he might hesitate if he’s thinking of the Presidency in 2028. I agree with some other commenters that if Mike Rogers couldn’t win in a great Republican year (2024) he will not do it in 2026. It seems to me the Democrats have a “deeper bench” in Michigan than the Republicans. I can see John James running for Senate or Governor. I just don’t think anyone should underestimate Mike Duggan running for Governor. It won’t be long before we see him on the News in the Upper Peninsula with a Beer and Pasty mingling with the locals trying to connect with them on his Governor run as an Independent. He can beat Benson if she’s the nominee of the Democrats. Gretchen Whitmer must be planning on running for President in 2028. Because, the open Senate seat is hers for the taking. I have a feeling that it will be only a few weeks before we will see the field formed. It would be fun to be like the old days and have some really old fashioned knuckle hitting primary’s. Have a few good candidates in each primary in both parties. This unity stuff of each party trying to crown a particular candidate and force others not to run is really unfair to the voters and to the potential candidates.