Question 1): Democrat Chedrick Greene (D-Saginaw) won the 35th state Senate District special election last Tuesday by nearly 20% over Republican nominee Jason Tunney. It renews the 20-18 majority Senate Democrats enjoyed in 2023-24. If Tunney had won, the chamber would have been in a 19-19 tie, with the Lieutenant Governor, Garlin Gilchrist II, the tie-breaking vote needed to pass legislation. Gilchrist could be expected to side with the Democrats every time he’s asked to. So, how significant was Greene’s victory, anyway?
Answer 1): Procedurally, it’s virtually meaningless. If Tunney had won, it would have created a 19-19 tie in the chamber. The last time a 19-19 tie occurred in the state Senate, in 1971-74, the Lt. Gov. was a Republican, James Brickley, but Democrats could easily prevent Brickley from casting a tie-breaking vote by simply withholding one of their own member’s votes, leaving a 19-18 result that was not a tie (any bill needs 20 votes out of 38 members elected and serving). Today, Democrats from now on have a 20-18 majority, and if they all stick together they can pass anything they want to over Republicans’ objections, but so what? If majority Republicans in the House of Representatives don’t like what the Senate passed, the legislation will die. End of story. That will be the situation between now and the end of the year. The true outrage was the unconscionably long time it took Gov. Gretchen Whitmer to call the election to fill the seat. The 35th has been empty for nearly a year and a half. There is nothing in statute that compels a governor to call a special election within a specified length of time, but clearly there should be. Previous governors have delayed taking action for partisan purposes, but Whitmer has taken this misbehavior to a whole new level. If she had acted when she should have, a year ago, a Greene election would have produced a situation in the Senate exactly as what it will be from now until the end of the year. If Tunney had won, the scenario, practically speaking, would not have gained Republicans any advantage because Gilchrist would have cast a tie-breaking vote against the GOP if he was forced to.
Really, what last Tuesday’s election was all about was whether Democrats, nationally and in Michigan, could sustain their narrative that they have been overperforming in every special election that has been held throughout the country for the past 16 months. They have flipped various seats held previously by Republicans, and even when they have lost they have dramatically narrowed their margins of defeat compared with, say, how Kamala Harris performed in the same jurisdiction in 2024. The Democrats had to keep this narrative alive, especially in an important “purple” state like Michigan. That’s why Democrats from outside Michigan poured a record amount of money into Greene’s campaign. The Saginaw fire chief spent well over $1 million, nearly 10 times as much as Tunney. Fueling the Democrats’ success, last Tuesday in Michigan and elsewhere during the past year, is a HUGE backlash against President Donald Trump. Trump’s approval ratings have plummeted to near-record lows, and they’re likely to sink further. It’s unlikely that the president’s popularity will improve between now and November. Since all politics is now national, that means Republicans almost certainly will take a drubbing as they did in 2006 in the middle of George W. Bush’s second term, or 1974, in the wake of Richard Nixon’s resignation and with a weak appointed president, Gerald Ford, in the White House.
********************************************************
The disturbing aspect of this defeat is that the area was “purple” and the margin of victory was massive for Dems. Historically, the GOP has been very competitive in this area.
Trump and Republicans in general since 2016 had significant success in this region.
One thing that had been pointed out by GOP optimists was the fact that Tunney was vastly outspent by the Democratic Party machine. Yes, however this seat had been perceived by all as competitive and the Democratic nominee – no big name in politics – took it with ease.
My opinion is that $5.00 per gallon gasoline and Trump’s slavish devotion to the Iran War quagmire is turning off moderate voters needed for the GOP to prevail.
GOP leaders are arrogantly trumpeting the divisions in the Democratic Party and the shift to progressivism at the latest convention portend victory for the Michigan’s Republicans in November.
In reality, the polling totals for progressive Dem candidates in Northern Michigan and among rural voters are impressive – Abdul Elsayed has the highest totals in these areas in the U.S. Senate race when compared to his opponents.
Many political pundits have failed to predict the collapse of the moderate wing of the Michigan Democratic Party:
“(Karen) McDonald will almost certainly (be) the Democratic nominee on November 3, 2026.” – Wm. Ballenger, 11/2/2025.
McDonald lost by a 58%-42% margin to left-winger Eli Savit. Karen now – after congratulating Savit on his landslide victory over her – is seeking an audit of the convention votes. LOL.
The moderate establishment wing of the Democratic Party in Michigan is in free fall decline – as is the GOP. Progressive Democrats are the social conscience of Michigan society and will make impressive gains politically.
Michigan Republicans need to get on the stick and devise counter-measures or they will lose in the fall general elections.
A recent poll indicates Democrats under 50 are more sympathetic to Iran than Israel in the ongoing war in the Persian Gulf.
That is a fascinating poll result since Iran in the late 1970s was anathema to most Americans following the seizing of U.S. Embassy personnel in Tehran in 1979.
Haley Stevens in 2018 flipped a Congressional seat held by Mike Bishop and has easily been re-elected to U.S. Congress every succeeding term – she had been considered a rising young Democratic star. She had been considered a shoo-in for the Democratic Party nomination for U.S. Senate this election cycle.
Re-alignment is too dull a word as to the shift of the political center of the Michigan Democratic Party. I have always previously opined that Mallory McMorrow was the strongest candidate in the Michigan Democratic U.S. Senate primary in 2026.
After seeing the recent Dem convention in Detroit, I believe that Dr. Elsayed has a legitimate shot at getting the U.S. Senate Democratic nomination. He is a Rhodes scholar and articulately conveys what young Democrats feel is a truthful message regarding corporate PACs and AIPAC’s respective pernicious influences in our electoral processes.
New polling by MIRS/Mitchell confirms that Abdul Elsayed has jumped out to a 10% lead over Haley Stevens and Mallory McMorrow.
AOC now leads all Democrats in a new presidential poll.
No real surprises there.
Progressive liberals are perceived by the youth element as the honest guys seeking peace and standing up for the little guy against corporate interests and endless military adventurism.
No real surprise also is the recent Michigan gubernatorial poll showing Jocelyn Benson pulling ahead of John James, who himself is barely ahead of Mike Duggan.
Michigan Republicans are upset that Rep.James has failed to campaign vigorously and is hurting the GOP chances at succeeding Gretchen Whitmer.
Nice article, Bill. It seems the GOP has its work cut out for it. The only question is whether the Democrats here in Michigan will implode or break out into civil war. It seems some of the losers from the nominating convention are challenging the outcome of their defeats at the convention. Maybe they can call Kristina Karamo for advice. All in the spirit of bipartisanship, of course.
Some Michigan Democratic Party insiders – such as Lon Johnson – have expressed a desire to overhaul the state convention nominating process.
Ditto for the MIGOP insiders.
The problem is that they are nominating candidates insiders disagree with.
Is that necessarily a bad thing?
I served as a state convention delegate for many years – and as an alternate.
Those delegates are well-informed and take their position seriously. They typically have more insight as to the inner workings of their party as opposed to your typical rank-and-file general election voter.
Primary voters in a statewide election can be swayed by snappy ads and empty hit pieces from well-financed campaigns – whereas convention delegates generally have personal contact with all candidates running at a convention and are in a far better position to determine who is the most deserving to be the standard-bearer in a general election for a political party.
The rejection of Oakland County Prosecutor Karen McDonald is an example of Democratic Party delegates choosing a well-qualified candidate aligned with their interests – Eli Savit – over Karen, whose ethical behavior remains under Attorney Grievance Commission scrutiny; her well-financed campaign backed by Dem insiders and numerous labor unions failed in a well-deserved landslide loss.
Empower the state convention delegates!
Turnout for both candidates was ridiculously low for a $ 1 million plus spend. Only about 32% of the turnout in the 2022 General’s, in the same district. 37,316 votes versus 116,351 votes in 2022.
Chedrick Greene only managed 36% of the votes that McDonald Rivet got in 2022 for his million dollars. Tunney only got 26.4% of the votes Glenn got in 2022.
Did the Democrats get good value for their $ 1 million?
Annette Glenn was not a strong candidate. She was the widow of Gary Glenn, considered by many to be one of the most right-wing politicians ever to sit in the Michigan Legislature, and who died of cancer, resulting in Annette succeeding him. Rep. Gary Glenn had championed the now overruled same-sex marriage Michigan Constitutional amendment in 2004 and was involved in various other rightist causes.
Chedrick Green was a virtual unknown when he filed for the special election. One million in cash goes a long way in electing someone to a Michigan Senate seat.
Annette Glenn was outspent by about 6 to 1, after you factor in PAC and other non committee spending. The money is coming from the coasts – remote from Michigan – in a clear and obvious attempt to Californicate Michigan. No one is a strong candidate against a $ 6 million blizzard of cash.
I agree with you – and Gary Glenn’s record as a passionate pro-life conservative dovetails with my own stances.
However, trying to run ultraconservative candidates like the Glenns in an area that includes Saginaw and other cities in the election district with liberal pockets is a tough row to hoe.
Hey Bill, spot on, as usual,
Wrt Q#1:
1) Let’s chalk this one up to the so-called MIGOP donor class. 10 to 1 spending advantage against Caesar’s machine in a special election notorious for the GOP snoozing through . . . What else does one expect? The donor class has demonstrated sufficient TDS, repeatedly, to the extent that only a direct campaign by The-Donald himself will prove meaningful in any election. Therefore, let’s just get ready for Caesar turning Michigan’s last election from a tri-fecta to an infinity-fecta. Hail! Caesar!
2) I’ve said before that MI is not purple. We are so blue, we’ve passed UM’s Blue and now approach PSU’s Navy Blue. Or maybe MTU’s Black. It’s just that Caesar has infiltrated the MIGOP to the extent that they can call for a Manchurian effect any time they need it.
3) As much as I absolutely love Mr. Runestad, it is time for him to go. His promise was to bring the donor class back into the fold. He failed. We’ve erased all of Mr. Hoekstra’s progress. It is time to face facts.
Pick a rich person . . . call them a republican (they probably won’t be) . . . then let them recruit their rich buddies . . . and hope like heck they set up an organization approximating opposition to Caesar’s party. Like we did with that “One Tough Nerd”, sic, (ha ha), Rick Snyder.
4) One more time . . . the problem is not Caesar’s party . . . they know what they are doing. The problem is the GOP. I could go on (and on) about what the GOP needs to do to right the ship, but it really all depends on how fundamental one wants to begin as a starting point. Merge it? Purge it? Sell it? Burn it down?
Bill, very poignant on TBR the other day . . .
Sorry, . . . I meant OTR the other day . . .
It was a wonderful article. Shares my exact sentiments.
My family enjoyed a wonderful weekend in Holland-Tulip time. On Saturday, May 9,Tony Forlini, Vince Patrick & Mike Garvonic and I enjoyed meeting thousands of voters along the 8th. Street parade route.
Leanne- I agree with you-AND maybe that is why I enjoy reading you.
Stop by in Plymouth-1142 S. Main-my wife calls my Law Office of 42 years “My Michigan Museum”.
Back on January 18th, you asked whether the Minnesota Somali scandal could happen in Michigan. At the time, the only really big Michigan fraud known then was the $ 566 million Fast Lab Technologies case. There a Turkish national, Cemhan “Jimmy” Biricik, was indicted for running a nationwide COVID testing scam by the Eastern District of Michigan USA. Biricik used Wisconsin Physicians Service, a CMS carrier contracted by Michigan DCH, to tap into Medicaid and Medicare. MDHHS was slow to detect this scam, but so were the feds.
Now Michigan has its own class of big bucks Medicaid frauds which more precisely echo the Somali frauds in Minnesota and equal them in scope.
Michigan’s Department of Licensing and Regulatory Affairs’ (LARA) Corporations Division licenses all corporations operating in the state. These licenses have to be renewed annually. Fail to renew, and LARA is supposed to put you out of business. They “dissolve” the corporation.
Some enterprising investigators from WC Dispatch’s Corruption Watch have found that companies dissolved by LARA still have their National Provider Identifiers (NPI) registered on the National Plan and Provider Enumeration System (NPPES) registry.
These dissolved companies are billing the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services (MDHHS) for big bucks. Corruption Watch have identified 21 dissolved Michigan corporations, entities that LARA had declared legally dead, billed MDHHS for $ 118.8 million after their LARA dissolution dates. This isn’t just a paperwork error, it is deliberate, outright fraud.
Walter Curt of WC Dispatch uses the case of Grace Points, Inc. in Dearborn – a very ethnic operation – to illustrate these intricate Medicaid frauds taking place in Michigan and how they are concealed from scrutiny in a little noticed investigative report:
‘Something Stinks in Michigan’
Dead Companies, Demolished Buildings, and Hundreds of Millions of Your Taxpayer Dollars.
By Walter Curt – Apr 19, 2026
This was a follow up to Curt’s previous story, which disclosed the explosive growth of Medicaid in Michigan since the trifecta took power:
‘The New Michigan Medicaid Fraud Machine’
After Democrats took full control in Lansing, payments across five key Medicaid billing codes jumped by more than $350 million in a single year. The first big winners were illegals, NGOs, and Democrat
By Walter Curt – March 30, 2026
Why is Medicaid so easy to defraud, you ask? The state is your enthusiastic partner in defrauding the federal government. A profound money shot from Issues & Insights, yesterday:
‘Which State Is Next In The Medicaid Fraud-O-Rama?’
By I & I Editorial Board – May 8, 2026
“One big problem with Medicaid is that, because of the way it’s financed, fraud actually pays dividends to the states, which get federal matching dollars for every dollar spent on providing Medicaid benefits. So, if the state doles out hundreds of millions of dollars to phony day care, hospice, or “home health” companies, Washington kicks in hundreds of millions, which the state can then use to pay for legitimate healthcare.”
You should also examine Michigan No-Fault Insurance fraud which gives Michiganders the highest auto insurance premium rates in the nation.
There are plenty of shady providers who learned to play the system underhandedly.
When Allstate found out that I got a $58.00 raise in my Social Security payment, they raised our automobile insurance for our two vehicles by $58.00 a month. That’s my theory, anyway.