Question 1): Two Republican incumbent university board members were denied renomination a week ago at the GOP state convention in Flint. Former Michigan Republican Party Chair Ron WEISER failed to get enough support to seek re-election to his post on the U-M Board of Regents. Likewise, the chairman of the MSU Board of Trustees, Republican Dan Kelly, was defeated in his bid for renomination for a second term. Meanwhile, Democrats produced their own fireworks at their conclave in Lansing. Pro-Palestine candidate Huwaid ARRAF failed in her attempt to be nominated to run for a spot on the U-M governing panel. She was defeated by two other candidates, both of whom were endorsed by Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. Which of the two parties will feel the most negative impact from these results?
Answer 1): Republicans will be hurt more. Yes, the rejection of Huwaid Arraf by the Democratic convention will keep the burning resentment against the Biden administration smouldering and will make it harder for Kamala Harris to put out the fire. However, Arab-Americans are a comparatively narrow demographic in Michigan. Meanwhile, the Republicans have committed political malpractice. They have rejected an incumbent multi-millionaire U-M Regent who has given more money to his party than just about anyone except the DeVos family. Weiser could have funded his own campaign without tapping strapped GOP resources. But the Republicans didn’t stop there. They also rejected the ONLY elected Republican on the MSU Board of Trustees, a man who was elected chairman of the board by the overwhelming Democratic majority on that panel. Moreover, he’s got a great surname in Michigan politics — Kelly, Dan Kelly. That’s worth tens of thousand of votes just by itself. Instead, the GOP nominated a chronic loser and an unknown with an off-putting last name. They’re headed for defeat, and the MSU board, for the first time in history, will have not a single Republican on it. You can’t fix stupid.
*************************************************
Question 2): Which of the major political parties is in a better position to win seats on the State Supreme Court – and why?
Answer 2): The Democrats are better positioned to not just retain their 4-3 majority on the Supreme Court but to expand it to 5-2 by sweeping both seats that are up for grabs. Incumbent Justice Kyra Harris Bolden (a former Democratic state Representative appointed by Gov. Gretchen Whitmer) might be vulnerable, but she’ll have the all-important incumbency designation, and there is little evidence Republicans have the financial resources that they had a decade ago to make a serious run at holding onto the seat now held by retiring Justice David Viviano, a nominal Republican. Names mean something in Michigan politics, and the Democrats are using their usual playbook by coming up with a female candidate with solid credentials and an anodyne name, Kimberly Thomas. Meanwhile, Republicans have nominated Andrew Fink, a well-regarded state Representative whose surname, unfortunately for him, doesn’t match up with Thomas or past Democratic Supreme nominees like Cavanagh and Welch. Democrats have already committed at least $2.4 million to TV advertising for their two nominees. Unless some unexpected outside PAC comes to the GOP’s rescue, the party appears once again doomed to go down in flames.
********************************************
Question 3): Did anything happen in Michigan’s August 6 primaries that changed the way we should look at the Nov. 5 general election?
Answer 3): Not in the primaries so much as the later revelation that Democrats have committed a staggering $14.2 million to helping Democratic candidates in 20 key state House districts — that may be more than enough to expand their slim 56-54 majority.
On Aug. 6, out of 110 contests for the state House and 13 for Congress (the U.S. House), only two incumbents got knocked off — Neil Friske (R-Charlevoix) in the 107th state House District and Bob Bezotte (R-Howell) in the 50th. Both defeats were self-inflicted. Friske’s single term in the state House has been characterized by voting behavior so far out in right field that it rankled even staunch conservatives, including his fellow members; then he was involved in an ugly late night shoot-’em-up in Lansing involving a stripper, just a month before the election. The easy winner was a hard-charging 25-year-old, Parker Fairbairn (R-Harbor Springs). Bezotte, a former Livingston Co. sheriff, behaved himself in the state House, but his conduct outside the chamber did him in — he was involved in a messy divorce proceeding with his longtime wife, and his exit from the race and then re-entry was too much for voters to stomach. He was defeated by a candidate whom he had earlier endorsed —Jason Woolford. Both these seats will stay Republican in November.
Other than that, it was pretty pro forma in all the other races the pundits were looking at. For example, who would win the 103rd (Traverse City area) and 109th (Marquette area) on the Republican side? As it turned out, Lisa TROMBLEY easily defeated Katie KNISS in TC for the right to take on incumbent Betsy Coffia (D-Traverse City), the first Democrat elected in this enclave in more than a century. Also, broadcaster Karl BOHNAK outdistanced Melody WAGNER for the Republican nod in Marquette. Some thought there might be a ‘protest’ vote against incumbent Jenn HILL in the Democratic primary in the 109th, but it didn’t manifest itself at the ballot box — she drubbed two opponents.
In HD 78, incumbent Republican Gina JOHNSEN (R-Lake Odessa) easily turned back Jon ROCHA; in the open seat HD 64, Joseph Pavlov (R-Kimball Twp) edged out former Rep. Gary Eisen and three other opponents; and in HD 51, ultra-conservative incumbent Matt MADDOCK (R-Milford) fended off challenger Kevin ZEIGLER. All three of these seats will be retained by the GOP in November.
As for Congress, the 8th U.S. House District Republican primary between Paul JUNGE and Mary Draves turned out to be a laugher — Junge won easily.
Meanwhile, in the same 8th CD, state Senator Kristen McDonald RIVET (D-Bay City) decisively defeated former Flint Mayor Matt Collier and State Board of Education president Pamela Pugh in the Democratic primary for the chance to succeed current U. S. Rep. Dan Kildee, who is retiring.
Former Congressman Mike ROGERS‘s victory in the race for the GOP nomination for the U.S. Senate seemed foreordained, and it was, by a big margin.
In CD 13, Some observers thought the contest between multi-millionaire incumbent Shri THANEDAR, an Indian-American, and Mary WATERS might be a real barn-burner. Could race + the endorsement of Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan beat incumbency plus a ton of campaign cash? Some thought that the ‘race card’ (Waters is a Black city councilwoman in a plurality Black district) might win, but she managed to raise and spend only $35,000 while Thanedar buried her with millions of dollars in advertising. Still, Waters got some 35% of the vote.
********************************************
Your commentary is right on point
Very unfortunate that Republicans did not renominate Ron Weiser —makes no sense.
Further, Mark Boonstra 12 Year Court of Appeals Judge, a man of the highest intelligence, sensitivity and integrity would have been an excellent candidate for the Republicans to elect to the Michigan Supreme Court
Agreed – and the surprising aspect is that Fink and Boonstra both come from Washtenaw County. Fink was raised in Ypsilanti and Boonstra has lived in Dexter.
Fink’s main selling point was his youth – and the fact Boonstra would be age-limited from running for re-election under the State of Michigan Constitution.
Bill- you’re absolutely right about the GOP and the University posts, but your reference to Andrew Fink as a “highly regarded” state rep fails to point out that he’s an election denier and a participant in the January 6 riot. This man should be nowhere near the Michigan Supreme Court.
I know of no information suggesting Andrew Fink is an “election denier” nor any way involved with the January 6th riot events.
He is an honorably discharged USMC captain and a respected lawyer.
Read the Freep
I checked and saw nothing in the FREEP that substantiates what you are claiming.
I am sure the Democrats would have pointed this out if were accurate.
He is an election denier, but attended a protest rally at the Michigan State Capitol on January 6, 2021, not the one in Washington. This is according to the Michigan Independent. See: https://michiganindependent.com/politics/republican-who-attended-a-stop-the-steal-rally-launches-bid-for-michigan-supreme-court/.
Regarding the Republicans to University of Michigan Board of Regents:
(A) Sevag Vartanian is a retired Goldman-Sachs vice-president who initially ran for the Board of Regents in 2022 on a platform of being a concerned parent with no political experience – he resonated with delegates and received a nomination over a more well-known name in Michigan politics.
(B) Carl Meyers is a financial company vice-president and U-M alum who was raised in Dearborn and who made several prior unsuccessful runs for the Board of Regents – he is longtime GOP insider with close ties to Ron Weiser.
Both Vartanian and Meyers campaigned heavily at GOP local events to mingle with delegates where Ron Weiser was not seen at major events – at least NONE that I attended. Weiser was part of the GOP establishment that delegates tried so hard to oust for years until they finally elected Kristina Karamo in 2022. Weiser is anathema to most Tea Party members and other fringe non-traditional GOP elements.
(C) Ron Weiser’s defeat in Flint did not surprise me. Weiser is considered more liberal than insiders such as the DeVos family and the ultraconservatives from outstate. Don’t expect him to be embraced by many conservative elements in the Michigan GOP – but yes, he has donated plenty of funding to Republican causes – and that NEVER hurts.
(D) Dan Kelly had the BEST campaign organization in the MSU Trustee race – and provided excellent leadership in the wake of the Larry Nasser scandal – HOWEVER Trustee candidate Mike Balow – who was the top vote-getter at the MIGOP convention pointed out to me CORRECTLY that HE received an endorsement from a Larry Nasser victims support group. Kelly had been elected in 2016, well after Nasser was arrested – and his leadership in recruiting John Engler to take over the presidency was a crucial win for MSU’s recovery as an educational institution. Kelly never lost an election before his 2024 drubbing in Flint – and perhaps delegates felt that his response to the Nasser scandal was wanting.
(E) Livonia’s Mike Balow in 2022 was the most successful GOP statewide nominee on the ballot that election cycle – finishing only ONE-TENTH OF ONE PER CENT behind Democratic nominee Dennis Denno in what was a Blue Wave election cycle. His victory among delegates was not that surprising given that performance plus the fact two seats were available for nominations.
(F) Julie Maday of Novi was campaigning on the platform as an “MSU mom” she had no prior political experience and her victory at the convention was a surprise – but delegates were still reeling from the Nasser scandal – and her appearing at GOP events as an outsider politically likely endeared her to delegates -plus being the only female in the race.
(G) on the Democratic Party side the rude convention treatment in Lansing given Palestinian-American Huwaida Arraf and her vocal delegates was absolutely unbelievable – reminiscent on how blacks were treated in certain Democratic circles in the 1960s. Governor Whitmer took the unusual step of endorsing the two non-Arabs in the race for University of Michigan Board of Regents – even though Arraf had won accolades around the world for her civil rights activities.
Nice article, Bill.
QUESTION 1: One sign of political extremism is allowing ideology to trump reality. I am unaware of what these two guys did to offend the delegates and thus I cannot fathom why they would turn these two guys down. Makes no sense, but the GOP has a history of having conventions nominate folks who cannot win. Yup, you can’t fix stupid.
QUESTION 2: You’re right. Money is the mother’s milk of politics. For a political party to nominate folks who have no money, no reasonable expectation of getting money and then expecting them to win, is beyond stupid. All they had to do is look at 2022. Dixon was outspent 16:1, Karamo at least 20:1. Repeating mistakes is not a winning strategy.
QUESTION 3: Good analysis. Mary Waters was not a particularly strong candidate and methinks the results might have been different if Adam Hollier could get enough legitimate signatures. Apparently, he took lessons from Perry Johnson and James Craig. Wrong role models to emulate. But people like that keep politics entertaining.
Hi Bill…..it saddens me to keep hearing a man so smart, one whose opinion I indeed respect, continue to use terms like Republican and Democrat. Both parties have been hijacked by the crazies, and neither even begins to resemble the respected parties of old that brought us people like John Kennedy and Ronald Reagan. I can’t even imagine the pain involved in having to go to the polls in November and choose between one of the most awful human beings on our planet and a cackling fool who has historically aligned herself with every goofball idea emanating from the former great state of California. We deserve better than this…..but then again, do we?
1. The Michigan Republican party is DOA really is the Trumper Party. Good for
Dems!
2.After the Supreme iINJUSTICE to Injured
People perpetrated by the old Engler S. C.
What do you think the people will do?Of course
The Trumpers made it Worse ! Woman’s Rights?
3. Well Written Bill
3.
Bill, thanks again for a set of livening discussion points.
Wrt Q#1: Bill, please allow me to respectfully push back on your, “You can’t fix stupid.” quip. I get the implication that Republicans are the object of your ire. I come from the perspective that even Republicans are people too; and I am a firm believer that the people will get what the people want . . . and the people will be the beneficiary just as soon as the people can figure out what they want.
In this case, it is clear that the people haven’t figured out what they want. But I contend that the cause is not the “stupid” people, it’s the source of the information (or lack thereof) that the people have to cogitate on. Poor information has been more than just the cause of sinking ships, lost causes, lost kingdoms, yada, yada.
So, what’s the cause(s) of the poor information? Well, there’s too many to list here
wrt Q#2: I grew up in Michigan and voted for years not knowing who the non-partisan candidates were or what the ballot proposals were till I read them in the booth. Civics was definitely not a strong suit of my local high school (and I doubt it is in any other public school district, either; one of the many reasons we ended up homeschooling our kids. One of the best decisions we made as a couple). Fairly recently, thanks to the internet, I’ve learned to educate myself on the more esoteric political offerings per each upcoming election. Please, call me ignorant, not stupid.
Associated with the point I am trying to make, above, the two major political parties learned long before I was born that an educated electorate was not conducive to their individual political longevity. Therefore, yes, both parties are complicit in squelching political information. And when it is let out at all, most sources want heavy doses of funding for the privilege of being informed (kudos to TBR for helping to alleviate this jam).
I must add, my observations are that . . . the GOP, and the old-timey “country club” MI GOP in particular, has kept the reins of power tight-fisted to say the least . . . hence, I suspect the source of Trump hostility.
Wrt Q#3: As M Sullivan opines, elsewhere, 16:1 and 20:1 funding odds are just too much for any brilliant message to overcome. Trump Derangement Syndrome and Never-Trumpism are maladies that threaten the very existence of the MIGOP. As long as the MIGOP is plagued with a donor class that is willing to destroy the party in order to remake it into their own pathological image, the party is going nowhere. For this I admire the DNC. Soros, and Soros-ish, mega donors notwithstanding, they had a plan, and they worked the plan. Kudos to them.
Please MIGOP! WAKE UP! Be wise as [DNC] serpents . . . but harmless as doves.
Keep up the fine work, Bill
Few realize that revenues from the University of Michigan’s health care operations now double the revenues from their traditional educational operations. MSU is well along the same path.
Michigan’s traditional university board system is ill suited to manage the huge sums of money involved. The WSU board is a good example of the poor leadership which can occur on politically selected boards.
Huwaida Arraf filed a lawsuit in Ingham County Circuit Court Thursday against the Michigan Democratic Party. It alleges the MDP rigged their U of M Board of Regents nomination to favor the nominations of Denise Ilitch and Shauna Ryder Diggs over Arraf. Arraf was, of course, the high vote getter at the convention but not endorsed by Wretched Gretchen.
Separately, Wretched Gretchen, an MSU alumna, is “still reviewing” a March request from the MSU Board of Trustees to remove Democratic trustees Rema Vassar and Dennis Denno from the Board. They conspired with student groups to defame and remove other Board members, as well as school officials.
Michigan Democrats really know how to run a University Board.