Red vs. Blue on the Overall List
Question 1): In its 2024 ranking of the “Best States,” U.S. News & World Report estimates that Michigan is languishing in the bottom fifth of all 50 (at #42), as we have been in other surveys taken during the past decade.
But political demographer Lou Jacobson, who covers state politics more assiduously than other journalists, opines that these rankings have less to do with whether a state is “red” or “blue” than a rich variety of other, more objective factors. For instance, here’s what Jacobson reports:
“Launched in 2017, the Best States rankings are designed to inform citizens, business leaders and policymakers about what’s working and what needs improvement across the country. The project measures the 50 states using 71 metrics in the eight categories of health care, education, economy, opportunity, infrastructure, crime and corrections, fiscal stability and natural environment. “
Michigan’s best finish is #27 in the nebulous category “Opportunity,” and that’s only middle-of the-pack. All of Michigan’s other rankings are LOWER than that. For instance, Michigan ranks 38th in the way it handles “Crime & Punishment”; our Economy is 38th; Education lags in at #41; Fiscal Stability at #32; Health Care at #29; Infrastructure at what we would expect — #41; and Natural Environment at #30.
A look at the intersection between states’ excellence – or lack thereof – and their left (Blue) vs. right (Red) leaning indicates what’s working is a political and policy mix, particularly among the top 10 states overall, according to Jacobson. He continues:
“The No. 1 state is red Utah, followed by blue New Hampshire. Third is red Nebraska, fourth is blue Minnesota, fifth and sixth are red Idaho and Iowa, seventh and eighth are blue Vermont and Washington state, ninth is red Florida and 10th is blue Massachusetts.
“Utah – the top state in the rankings for the second year in a row – scores particularly well on education, ranking second nationally on an assessment that incorporates the state’s relatively stellar eighth-grade reading and math scores, among other metrics. Utah comes in third on economy, particularly excelling in labor force participation and business creation. No. 9 Florida posted a similarly strong showing, ranking first in both economy and education, thanks in large part to higher education metrics like low tuition and fees and economic metrics like gross domestic product growth.
“New Hampshire, meanwhile, posted the second-lowest rates of violent and property crime in the country – fueling its No. 1 ranking in crime and corrections – and also ranks in the top 10 for economy, education, opportunity and environment. No. 10 Massachusetts ranks second in health care, third in education, fourth in crime and corrections, seventh in natural environment and eighth in economy.
“Top-performing states – along with the bottom 10 – display some regional patterns.
“Red states in the top 20 of the overall rankings, for example, mostly come from the Great Plains and Mountain regions of the U.S., while red states in the bottom 10 are disproportionately located in the South.
“The state that ranks 50th overall is Louisiana, with other low-ranking states in the Deep South including Mississippi (48th), Alabama (44th) and South Carolina (41st). Other bottom 10, solidly red states nearby are Arkansas (47th), West Virginia (46th) and Oklahoma (43rd).
“Only two states that went for Biden in 2020 land in the bottom 10 overall: Michigan at No. 42 and New Mexico at No. 49.”
The 2024 Swing States, including Michigan
“The seven swing states identified by U.S. News as being critical to the outcome of the 2024 election between Biden and Trump stretch roughly across the country and land in both the top and bottom halves of the Best States rankings.
- Wisconsin – No. 17, performs best in opportunity (No. 5)
- Georgia – No. 18, performs best in infrastructure (No. 14) and environment (No. 14)
- North Carolina – No. 19, performs best in economy (No. 11) and fiscal stability (No. 11)
- Arizona – No. 32, performs best in economy (No. 10)
- Nevada – No. 33, performs best in economy (No. 5)
- Pennsylvania – No. 40, performs best in health care (No. 11)
- Michigan – No. 42, performs best in opportunity (No. 27)So, what about these rankings? Do they say anything about which major political party might be more responsible for Michigan’s poor performance relative to the other 49 states? Why was Michigan one of only two states that lost population between 2000 and 2010, and didn’t do much better in the second decade of the 21st century? And isn’t doing any better since?
Answer 1): It looks like a “plague upon both your houses” if we’re in the blame game, although Democrats might argue that they’ve never really had a clear crack at ‘righting the ship’ until the past year and a half, and what they have accomplished in the past 16 months will take years to bear fruit.Last year and what remains of 2024 represent the first time since 1983 that Democrats have what is called a political “Trifecta” — control of the governor’s office and both chambers of the Legislature. Before last year, stretching back to the beginning of the 21st century, starting with the post-census, post reapportionment year of 2003, Republicans have had EIGHT years of a Trifecta, from 2011 through the end of 2018.Other than that, it’s been split government — there was a Republican House from 2003-2006, and from 2011-22. There was a Republican Senate from 2003-2022. A Republican (Rick Snyder) sat in the governor’s office from 2011 -2018. During the same time, Democrats controlled the House from 2007 through 2010, but not again until the beginning of last year. Democrats have never controlled the Senate during this time until 2023. However, they have had two governors (Jennifer Granholm and Gretchen Whitmer) who presided over the executive branch during 2003-2010 as well as from 2019 though this year and continuing. In other words, 10 of the 22 years since 2003 have produced a Trifecta for one party or the other, while a dozen years saw ‘split’ government with either Democrats or Republicans controlling at least one “leg” of the “three-legged stool,” which yielded partisan compromise or else “gridlock.”
It will take years, maybe decades, for political scientists, psephologists, and public policy mavens to try to evaluate which decisions by politicians in the state capital have worked, and which didn’t. What were the inspired accomplishments? What were the block-headed blunders? And why has Michigan done a relatively poor job compared with most other states? Or did nothing that the politicians did or didn’t do make any difference? Is Michigan’s reputation today due to circumstances beyond the control of our decision-makers in Lansing? Was the population drain during the past two decades the cause, or the result, of policy decisions in the state capital?
There are plenty of opinions, but no clear answers, in medias res.
(EDITOR’S NOTE: With this issue, The Ballenger Report will take a one-week hiatus. Our next article will appear on May 25th)
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Great report ! Very informative yet concerning.
Thank You Bill.
Hey Bill…..I can’t help but notice our tiny Idaho is well ahead of Michigan and other states that should be teaching real subjects other than how awful it is to be privileged and white. Sadly, the US is now ranked 23rd in the world in education and falling fast. I can only hope this moronic grip on our country has finally subsided by the time you and I say our final goodbyes…….
Detroit Public Schools have had some of the lowest achievement scores ever recorded on state-mandated testing.
Suburban school districts have had better rankings.
Don’t mix apples and oranges!
Thank you Bill. These ratings are TERRIBLE. I HAVE ALWAYS BEEN PROUD OF MY MICHGAN, particularly as former Chair of Higher Ed. Appropriations when I was in the State Legislature.
Horrible job of assimilating EV’s into the Michigan Economy, John Rakolta says Growth Report “sits on a shelf”, AND Democrats want to increase Unemployment Benefits.
My sincere prayers for substantive, EFEECTIVE LEADERSHIP.. BUT WHO AM I, a 45 year lawyer from Wayne County who is and has to be FOCUSED ON THE HARD FACTS. We need new thinking and energy in the Governor’s Office and State Legislature.
Nice article, Bill. Enjoy your vacation!
I agree with Cheryl. But being in a musical frame of mind when I read today’s TBR, I’m not sure what the USN&WR story says about Michigan. Is it Alice Cooper’s “WELCOME TO MY NIGHTMARE” or AC/DC’s “HIGHWAY TO HELL”?
Let’s see here, less than 41% of our 3rd graders (per Bridge Magazine) read at grade level which neatly matches our 41st ranking in education. As for the other rankings, it seems that our political parties – in their perpetual rush to placate their donors and most vocal bases – have left us in a hole that looks mighty hard to get out of. And they seem to keep digging. Isn’t the best way to get out of a hole is to stop digging down? As for the song selection, I fear it just might be both of them. YIKES!!!
And THANK YOU Tim Sullivan of course EDUCATION is my number one issue. The School Aid Fund is what provides the foundation grant for K-12 and less than 41% of all third graders are reading at grade level and we are ranked 41st in educational achievement. very disheartening. May God help us with all of the pending layoffs of teachers
The decline of the U.S auto industry from the 1970s onward is a key factor in the equation to place Michigan near the bottom of places to live. Germany and the U.S. at one time were considered the dominant forces in the international car manufacturing arena.
In the 1960s, the Japanese auto industry was considered a running joke in vehicle quality. A young business entrepreneur named Malcolm Bricklin in 1966 began distributing the Subaru car in the U.S.
Eventually, the Japanese, Germans, and Italians became the dominant forces in cars. Clinton’s NAFTA signalled the move of auto suppliers to Mexico and the auto manufacturing operation that had led to prosperity in Michigan were gutted. Fiat and Daimler-Benz expanded their operation into the U.S. as did Japanese automakers.
Michigan has never recovered from these events and it was a reason that Trump won Michigan in 2016.
GM and Chrysler went belly-up and Ford barely survived. The Japanese, Germans, and Italians have prospered at our expense.
Leanne is100%! The Government in this State was bought and paid for by the Car Industry ! Look at the results! We are on the upturn
However after years of adjustments ,Thanks to the Democrats,The Best is Yet to Come!
I love reading Leanne’s astute observations.
Yes, the Michigan auto industry has been in precipitous decline since the 1980s – as exemplified by “Roger and Me”.
Bad management and high labor costs destroyed the Michigan auto-related economy.
Thanks Bill, another intriguing subject.
[entering cynical mode . . .] Aww c’mon, Bill, lets give Caesar a few more years . . . I bet we can hit 50th place . . .
[re-entering skeptical mode . . .] It would be nice to hear just a few more facts concerning this report. Were the results per capita? Or just raw magnitudes? What was the state baselines at the beginning of the study period? I suspect MI came from a fairly high baseline. What are the trends? Subjectively, how do residents of each state feel their states are doing relative to other states?
Since education seems to excite a high anxiety level in our TBR participants . . .
Wrt K – 12 education, how do states with super school choice and student vouchers do? I really believe school competition is the solution to this particular crisis. Private and non-union schools should have equal funding/taxation as public schools. School teacher union power needs to be subordinated to objective goals/curricula agreed to by voters.
Wrt College funding, once education surpasses mid level algebra, who gets the benefit of further education? Answer: Corporations. People and households do not require high level math to live/function. Therefore, corporations should fund scholarships (coupled with a graduation job commitment similar to the military ROTC program) which should form the basis of the soul resource funding of higher institutions. Property tax millage’s should be illegal. Endowment funds should be taxed, albeit at a low rate.
[Solutions free of charge . . .]
A lot of the numbers these USN&WR rankings are based upon are lies by omission or outright lies. The crime numbers are a glaring example.
More than one-third of U.S. law enforcement agencies did not report data to the FBI last year, representing a quarter of the U.S. population. New York City, Los Angeles, and most agencies in California, New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Florida did not report to the FBI.
So the USN&WR crime numbers are trash.
Does anyone seriously believe that public safety in Illinois is better than Michigan, now that Detroit’s 4820-die thugs are on a well deserved vacation in Club Fed? Or Indiana? Or Ohio? Or Wisconsin? A quick review of ‘Hey Jackass!’ on any Monday should disabuse anyone so deluded.
James Varney has posted a long form analysis of America’s bogus crime statistics at RealClearInvestigations today:
‘Should You Believe Faulty U.S. Crime Stats or Your Own Lying Eyes? It’s a Tough Call’
Our education statistics are equally bogus.
“Figures don’t lie, but liars figure”, said Mark Twain. I rest my case. How many potential residents of this great state have been sacrificed on the altar of convenience due to the evil of abortion? (Code words: ‘women’s health care’, ‘family planning’, ‘abortion care’ ‘ health care’, etc.) millions of lives never came to be over several generations. Commander Spock would say, “Captain, this wanton killing of fetuses in the womb is insanely evil and illogical!” Mister Spock recognized evil, because it is eternal and universal. I am thoroughly sickened by the whole process because of the evil. If you cannot recognize evil, then you are damned. Have a nice day.
Bill, Pat Laughlin sent your Ballenger report to me a number of weeks ago.
Just made a donation as well. Your report keeps me informed of Michigan politics which has changed dramatically from those days back in the day when you were there among us staffers.
Thank you for the times you gave me to help in Washington at HEW.
I’m glad we served when we did.I’m grateful for the experience you afforded me.
I’ve been living in the Chicago area for the last 25 years. There is no GOP to speak of here. I didn’t see Illinois rated on your list of States in your recent article.
I can’t conceive of a State that is a poorly managed as this one.
Thank again Bill,for the memories of yesteryear.
Hope to reconnect someday when I’m in Michigan .
psephologists … had to look it up, thank you for expanding my vocabulary