Gilchrist Makes A Move, But How Far?
Question 1): Lt. Gov. Garlin GILCHRIST II kicked off his 2026 gubernatorial campaign this past Tuesday with a splashy opening before a crowd of some 300 at Jam Handy on the east side of Detroit. His theme is “Stand Tall for Michigan.” The former computer engineer is at least 6’6”.
However, Gilchrist starts as a marked underdog.
In a Target Insyght poll taken March 3-6 on a potential Democratic gubernatorial primary, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson leads at 55 percent to Gilchrist’s 12%. Attorney General Dana NESSEL is also at 12 percent and Genesee County Sheriff Chris SWANSON sits at 3 percent. Other candidates or undecided were at 19 percent. The 600-voter sample had a margin of error of +/- 4 percent.
Gilchrist also doesn’t have the initial endorsement of Gov. Gretchen WHITMER, who has said she’ll stay neutral through the primary.
Gilchrist’s path through the nomination is one thing. Presuming he can win it, he will have to outpoll the sitting mayor of his home city, Mike DUGGAN, running as an Independent, as well as the Republican nominee, whoever that turns to be.
In a potential general election contest for Governor, Target Insyght didn’t include Gilchrist, but in a matchup between Benson, Duggan, and, if he runs, U.S. Rep. John JAMES (R-Shelby Township), Benson leads with 42 percent compared with 30 percent for James and 21 percent for DUGGAN
A couple of weeks ago, an EPIC-MRA survey showed DUGGAN sitting at 23 percent statewide, Democrat Jocelyn BENSON at 31 percent and Republican Dick DeVOS at 31 percent. DeVos was included as the GOP nominee because of his name ID despite not having given any indication he will run (he was the Republican standard bearer back in 2006 against incumbent Gov. Jennifer Granholm).
Trying to become governor as a sitting Lieutenant Governor has hardly ever been a winning formula. Only once going back into the 19th Century has anyone ever managed to do it — Democrat John Swainson in 1960, succeeding popular Gov. G. Mennen Williams. And Swainson had the advantage of being one of the last LGs who had been elected in his own right, separately from the governor, under the old 1908 Constitution. Beginning in 1964, Michigan has elected its LGs as running mates with the gubernatorial nominees, like U.S. President and Vice President.
That’s how Republican William Milliken became governor in 1969 after being LG. He ascended to the governorship when Gov. George Romney resigned, so Milliken had a two-year run as an incumbent when he ran for election in his own right in 1970 and staved off a challenge from Democrat Sander Levin. In 1940, incumbent Republican Gov. Luren Dickinson didn’t get as far as Milliken. Dickinson, who had served split terms as LG for nearly a decade, had succeeded to the state’s top post when his predecessor died in office, but he was ousted by Democrat Murray Van Wagoner when he sought election to a full term of his own.
More recently, there have been Lt. Gov. Brian Calley in 2018, Lt. Gov. John CHERRY in 2010, and Dick POSTHUMUS in 2002. All fell short. Calley was defeated in a Republican primary, Cherry pulled out of the race and never got on the ballot, and Posthumus lost in a general election to Granholm.
Bottom line: Lieutenant Governors find difficulty in seeking the top job, even though they have a front-row view of the front office and the relationships formed therein. Fact is, regardless of how the outgoing governor is viewed at the time, an LG’s name ID is typically very low and they have trouble raising campaign cash to boost it. They have to own everything good and bad from the administration while also trying to point to what they personally have accomplished in that time.
Add to this, Gilchrist has never been elected to any public office in his own right. Unlike Swainson, he hasn’t been an elected state senator or LG. His only success was being Whitmer’s running mate. The only time he ran by himself, he lost a race for Detroit city clerk in 2017.
So, what is Gilchrist’s path to victory? How does he get out from under Gretchen Whitmer’s shadow?
Answer 1): At this point, it’s going to take a miracle. He hasn’t gotten any help from his own governor, who has failed to endorse him. Compared with Benson and Duggan, Gilchrist is getting in the race late, and now he’s going to have to overcome a fundraising deficit and will have to raise a ton of money. Next, he needs to develop a top-notch campaign organization and increase his name recognition in the state. He also needs to develop a social media campaign that connects with young people as well as seniors. Securing some high-level endorsements sooner rather than later would help as well. Gilchrist needs a major public victory. That could be a project, policy initiative, or something of that nature.
The major reason LGs struggle is that they can’t escape the looming presence of the sitting governor. In this case, it’s more pronounced because Whitmer especially enjoys the media attention focused on herself. Gilchrist needs to put his earned media strategy into overdrive. There may be little downside risk to taking a ‘big swing’ at something as long as it doesn’t upset the Governor too much and doesn’t burn the relationships he has in Lansing.
******************************************************************
Question 2): There is a renewed battle in Michigan’s capital to extend the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) to cover the Governor and the Legislature. In only two states, Michigan and Massachusetts, has FOIA not been extended to completely cover those two branches of government.
The state House of Representatives hasn’t yet taken up SB 1 and SB 2 , which cleared the Senate last month, and there is some reason to believe it never will. These bills would subject legislative and the Governor’s offices to public records requests under FOIA. Legislation to open up FOIA has passed one chamber or the other in the past, but never both. There is ample reason for the news media and the general public to believe that “games are being played” by lawmakers who want to give the appearance of trying to reform FOIA without ever actually doing it. But do they have valid reasons for being skeptical about the FOIA bills being considered?
Answer 2): Well, yes, according to “10x25mm” in a comment on a recent TBR article on FOIA reform. Here is what 10x25mm says:
“(At the federal level), U.S. House and Senate records have always been expressly excluded from FOIA production. The rationale is explained in the Congressional Research Service’s January 9, 2023 monograph: “Congress and the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA),” by Benjamin M. Barczewski and Meghan M. Stuessy.
“While some have criticized Congress for exempting itself from FOIA, applying FOIA to Congress may alter the functioning of the legislative process and implicate certain constitutional provisions, including the Journal Clause (Art. I, §5, cl. 3) and the Speech or Debate Clause (Art. I, §6, cl. 1). Moreover, extending FOIA to Congressional documents may raise questions about one Congress’s ability to statutorily compel future lawmakers to publicly disclose information that is constitutionally privileged.
“The Michigan Constitution’s Article IV § 18 contains a ‘Journal clause’ patterned after the U.S. Constitution’s Article I § 6, so applying FOIA to our state legislature is constitutionally problematical, even if you are willing to accept the distortion of the legislative process which legislative FOIA will entail.
“The incumbent U.S. President’s records are not subject to FOIA, but can be accessed under certain circumstances five years after the President leaves office under the Presidential Records Act.
“The U.S. Freedom of Information Act (5 U.S.C. § 552) has stood the test of time and should be the pattern for Michigan.”
In other words, enacting FOIA reform at the state level may be tougher than we think, and even then it could get struck down by the courts.
**************************************
Garlin Gilchrist almost knocked off incumbent Detroit City Clerk Janice Winfrey in 2017 – but that is where his key strength is. He has no real ties to the rest of Metro Detroit or outstate voters.
He had been mainly brought in as a running mate for Gretchen Whitmer in 2018 over complaints within the Democratic Party that they had been ignoring minority candidates by nominating Nessel, Benson and Whitmer.
Hill Harper was a far superior Detroiter candidate when he ran in 2022 for U.S. Senate and was well-financed – but still lost decisively.
Garlin Gilchrist has been a decent lieutenant governor and a good sidekick to Gretchen Whitmer – but that is a far cry from becoming governor.
I recall then Lt. Gov. Brian Calley’s candidacy for Michigan governor falling short.
Jocelyn Benson is the presumptive Democratic nominee for Michigan governor – END OF STORY.
Gilchrist should have ran for Detroit mayor or secretary of State. Benson will win the primary easily. Swanson is like a cross between 2010’s Mike Bouchard and Tom George.
I agree with you, but I don’t think Gilchrist would win in Detroit. SOS would have been a good choice, but he could still be the Convention’s nominee for that office as sort of a consolation prize.
Wayne County Clerk Cathy Garrett is another alternative to Gilchrist for Michigan SOS.
Democrats have also encouraged Oakland County Clerk Lisa Brown to throw her hat in the ring as a potential Secretary of State nominee..
Garrett and Brown both have direct electoral supervisory experience where Gilchrist does not.
The Duggan candidacy means that Gilchrist and Duggan would essentially cancel each other out if Garlin became the Democratic nominee as they could be expected to split the Detroit vote in a general election.
For Michigan Republicans it is the stuff dreams are made of.
Leanne
I admire your forthright analysis and you certainly appear to be On Point.
All my best to everyone for the Election which is 2 weeks and 17 months away-NOVEMBER 3, 2026.
Nice article, Bill.
QUESTION 1: Initial polling data does tend to confirm Leanne’s point on this story, Gilchrist will not win – though Charlie DeDuff’s No BS News video – Michigan’s Mediocre Mob – of last week shows that Benson might not be as invincible as we seem to think now. And you’re right, Gilchrist needs Divine Intervention if he is to win.
QUESTION 2: I’m not holding my breath on FOIA. If the folks who support it want it, they will need a constitutional amendment through voter petition initiative. The end result if they succeed, will be a lot chats behind closed doors, more “meetings” at Kelly’s or other similar establishments, and less of a paper trail for us to look at.
The amazing thing is that the EPIC-MRA poll shows Jocelyn Benson in a dead heat with none other than Dick DeVos at 31% apiece – yet John James, a rising star in the GOP, is falling to 12% behind Ms. Benson in a poll conducted by a separate polling organization.
Is Dick DeVos really that popular among Michigan voters? LOL
Gilchrist may be posturing for an eventual SOS nomination – and that would not necessarily be a bad choice to place a Detroiter on the ballot.
Bill is entirely right about the LG race, but as a historical footnote: Luren Dickenson was a bizarre historical accident; he was a religious fanatic who became governor only because the incumbent died. He lost to a Democrat in the same election that saw FDR lose the state, the only time he lost Michigan in four elections.
I think Gilchrist doesn’t have a chance, but don’t think Benson as strong as some assume, especially in a general election. But it is also quite possible the Repubs may nominate someone whose eyes are rolling independently in his head and who wants to adopt the death penalty for masturbation.
Why Jocelyn Benson is strong:
(A) she has already built up a campaign organization that is far more formidable than anything that any other gubernatorial candidate has developed thus far
(B) grassroots Democrats are already coalescing around her candidacy in droves;
(C) with Pete Buttigieg and Dana Nessel each not running for governor, there is no one coming close to Benson’s name recognition that is nor will be expected to mount a serious challenge to her quest for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination;
(D) she will almost assuredly get the needed labor union support during the primary that will just a bout clinch her nomination.
Could someone like Haley Stevens or Hillary Scholten conceivably mount a credible run for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination? Sure – but I do not see that likely happening.
Matt Crehan says
(Edit)ANSWER 1) a. Slim to none. b. He doesn’t. Gilchrist is a dark horse candidate. Benson, a two-time state-wide winner has the primary virtually locked up. She is guaranteed to get all the left-wing looney tunes to vote for her; the same crowd who are making utmost fools of themselves by their audacious behavior concerning anything and everything done by one Donald J. Trump. If it were to be revealed that in his past life DJT was Moses who parted the Red Sea, these loose cannons would still find fault.
As to Swanson, he cancels himself out because of his current position. Nobody with a law enforcement background is going to win anything in a Democrat Party primary. Can you imagine him arresting anyone protesting policies of DJT in Genesee County? Neither can I.
But Garlin just might have one path to primary victory. If he runs his race based on race, he has the potential to turn out those of his race who have a natural propensity to vote for him. So he may be able to pull it off by towering above the other candidates and laser focusing on his base. Just campaign in every big city urban area and see how the votes come out.
ANSWER 2) Yes, because games ARE being played. As well they should. If the Freedom of Information Act is ever applied to the Legislative and Executive branches, the practical effect would be to dramatically alter the ways these branches function. Anything and Everything that could be done to circumvent FOIA requests would be. The question that has to be asked is: Does this mean that the two branches become more efficient? …or more efficient at hiding things? Will secret email accounts and other hidden forms of communication become normal?
Essentially there are certain behind-the-scenes methods of operation that are needed to run any organization in such a manner to achieve the results intended by its purpose. In this regard, government is no different from the private sector. Some matters must be kept private or else what is intended to be accomplished will be sabotaged. This is why real estate lease/purchase negotiations are not subject to FOIA requests.
Rest assured that if any type of FOIA ‘reform’ is ever extended to the Legislative and Executive branches, it will contain more holes than a slice of Swiss Cheese!
Matt, I think that Swiss Cheese would not have enough holes. Maybe a sieve?
One may be wondering why Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel may not be announcing another run for office.
Nessel has faced criticism over her office’s failure to obtain a conviction against Rick Snyder and others in the Flint water case. Also, the “fake elector” prosecutions filed by her office have been stalled in Lansing court system for over 18 months.
Last Friday, the Hamtramck Review newspaper reported Hamtramck City Clerk Rana Faraj issued an open letter asking her, Nessel, why clear evidence of election violations by several elected officials (who are Democrats) were not being prosecuted despite an extensive investigation being completed by law enforcement and being processed through Nessel’s office.
Nessel’s performance as Michigan Attorney General has created controversy.
Nessel may want to be named to the MI Supreme Court, replacing Beth Clement. She has no other place to go politically and has many year’s left.
MSC may be a good idea since Nessel has name recognition among voters.
At this point I wish it was like the old fashioned primary campaigns in 1978 and 1982 that were slugfests. For now, I think Mike Duggan over the next 2 years will slowly campaign across the state and the Upper Peninsula and make huge in roads with Independent voters. I don’t think Gilchrist has any chance and I’m not sure if Tudor Dixon Act II will do anything. I think it’s Mike Duggans election to win
Expect Duggan to alienate many outstate voters due to his stance on gun control.
As a Democratic Wayne County prosecutor his major theme was vigorous prosecution firearms violations.
In 2008, Michigan Supreme Court Chief Justice Clifford Taylor’s stance on gun control resulted in the Libertarian nominee garnering an unheard of 11% of the vote total in the race for Taylor’s seat and resulted in Democrat Diane Hathaway scoring an upset victory over Taylor.
Tudor Dixon lost by over 10% in 2022 to Whitmer – despite a Trump endorsement. It was one of the worst showings of a GOP gubernatorial nominee in the history of Michigan politics. Dixon needs to stay out of the governor’s race.
Keep in mind that the Democrats will not be able to financially bury 2026 Republican candidates in Michigan they way they buried Tudor Dixon in 2022.
The criminals at Act Blue will probably be out of business and their smoking ruins will be sweltering under an avalanche of lawsuits by 2026. The entire Act Blue management team resigned on March 6th and are now booking travel to no extradite countries.
Also, USAID will no longer be financing the American censorship campaign of the State Department’s Global Engagement Center, the British Foreign Commonwealth Development Office, and the various media censorship organizations. Tudor Dixon, and all other Republican candidates, will be able to broadcast their messages without the criminal interference of the Biden Administration sneaks and their British stooges in 2026.
The Global Engagement Center has shut down completely and the Brits are furiously covering their tracks, but the Trump Administration will never forget their crimes.
ACT Blue has raised billions of dollars since its inception in 2004. It by far and wide the most successful fundraising mechanism the American Left has devised to advance their political interests through grassroots donations – bit it is now in decline.
Between February and March of 025, it was announced that at least 7 senior officials of Act Blue had resigned following the 2024 presidential election that saw Donald Trump re-elected.
According to a story by the New York Times, several unions representing ACT Blue had released a letter to the organization’s Board of Directors listing the employees who resigned while claiming the “alarming pattern” was negatively impacting……our confidence and stability in the organization.”
The New York Times also claimed that a lawyer in the ACT Blue general counsel’s office, Zain Ahmad, was on leave from the organization
Ahmad claimed on a social media platform: “please be advised that we have Anti-Retaliation and Whistleblower policies for a reason.”
The union’s letter claimed that Ahmad’s statements were “unsettling and disturbing, and part of a growing pattern of volatility and toxicity stemming from current leadership.”
In 2021, reports suggested legal and ethical concerns regarding the fundraising tactics of ACT Blue. While ACT Blue has stated they do not profit from the 3.95% processing fee they charge for donations made on their platform, ACT Blue Technical Services, the organization’s non-profit credit card processing fee division, has reported paying more than $1million in income taxes on tips that it has received since 2013. ACT Blue asks donors for “tips” to ACT Blue Technical Services for the purpose of keeping the organization running and handling administrative and operational costs, and claims that 1.5% of the 3.95% processing fee is used for upkeep of their service.
From 2013 to 2020, ACT Blue accumulated $147.7 million in tips, far exceeding their operational costs, BUT CONTINUED TO SOLICIT TIPS on the basis that their funding was essential to their ongoing operations.
A former GOP organization general counsel, Chris Winkelman, has stated that these circumstances had created “serious legal concerns”.
There have been challenges filed with the Federal Election Commission of ACT Blue practices, but these have been met with very limited success.
The Zain Ahmad controversy is perhaps the strongest indications that something afoul may be occurring at ACT Blue.
Hey Bill! Great topics again, as usual!
Wrt Q#1: Path to victory? Nah. As cited elsewhere here in this great TBR, Gilchrist is looking like 12%. In Caesar’s party, the candidates are pre-determined behind closed doors which has likely already happened. I suspect Mr. Gilchrist is running in order to make certain he qualifies for personally receiving another level of campaign contributions, and . . . perhaps . . . to condition the Detroit vote to poison the typical Duggan vote come the general.
Benson appears to be the selected nominee and given she will be bestowed at least 45% of MI’s electorate come election month, she only requires another 5% +1 to be elected. This may end up being a very tough slog if certain things transpire.
1) If the republicans pose a weak candidate like they are wont to do, and,
2) If Duggan runs out-state for disaffected republican votes
If the republicans happen to field a fairly strong candidate (who? James? Dixon? Rinke? Johnson? nah), then it’s more likely a Benson win. I am intrigued by the DeVos mentions. I was 100% for him when he ran in ’06 until he bought all the SEMI TV ad time and made everybody sick of seeing his voice/face every commercial break. Even I voted for Granholm, a sad mistake I never did again. Think he would run a saner campaign? Nah.
Wrt Q#2: “But do they [the news media and the general public] have valid reasons for being skeptical about the FOIA bills being considered?” Yah hey, you Betcha! Tune me out till one party or the other assembles a veto proof majority and becomes strong enough to include all, including court justices. Till then, pardon me while I . . . z-z-z-z.
Keep ’em comin’ Bill
Ryan Kelley gave me a campaign pin of his during his 2022 gubernatorial run.
Now that he has a pardon from President Trump, he could run again without the baggage of a criminal conviction arising out of Jan. 6th activities.
I liked quality control guru Perry Johnson – but his petition signature gatherers did not apparently have quality control imposed upon their activities.
Maybe Artecia Bomer will make another run for governor? Apparently, however, she currently declared as a Detroit City Clerk candidate.
Ruth Johnson beat Jocelyn Benson by 5% in the 2010 Michigan Secretary of State race.
Johnson can defeat Benson in 2026.
Garlin Gilchrist is likely the most honest candidate the Democrats can offer in the 2026 election cycle for governor. But he needs lots of campaign funding and outstate support to mount a meaningful primary challenge to the clear frontrunner – Jocelyn Benson.
I would FOIA the phone records for the state police cell phone provided to the assistant who drives the Lt. Gov… it’s separate from the state cell phone they carry from the “official” office and any campaign cell phone; both being beyond FOIA.