Senate Democratic Majority Soldiers on with 29-hour Marathon Session, But Still …
Michigan House of Representatives Speaker Joe Tate (D-Detroit) and his slim Democratic majority imploded this past week, adjourning de facto for the year without acting on anything of real consequence after Thanksgiving. House Republicans walked out of the chamber 10 days ago and never returned, and Tate couldn’t even muster a quorum.
However, majority Democrats in the Senate — with the same two-seat majority Tate had in the House — managed to hold together during a 29-hour-long session that saw more than 90 bills passed, ending with an announcement that the chamber will adjourn sine die on Monday, Dec. 30.
The marathon Senate session, spanning 10 a.m. Thursday until 3 p.m. Friday, was witnessed by House Democrats who were unable to establish a quorum in their own chamber, thus preventing them from passing a single bill since the previous week.
MIRS newsletter reported that the Senate session was the longest in either chamber since the House’s prolonged income tax vote in 2007. Half the bills the Senate passed moved on party-line, 20-18 votes. A total of 13 were unanimous.
Along the way, minority Republicans tried to slow down the train. They offered numerous amendments, made a plethora of statements and even had several bills read in their entirety. Senate Minority Leader Aric NESBITT (R-Lawton) spoke against nearly every bill, slowing the pace of the session to a slow, methodical walk.
Gov. Gretchen Whitmer was MIA in all this, watching from a distance if at all, and got little that she demanded as the price for signing bills into law. Will she get out the veto pen? We’ll see.
Question 1): The question is, why did this happen? Could it have been prevented? Was it really the “disaster” it has been depicted as being for the Democrats’ vaunted “Trifecta” — their first in 40 years — that will end with the advent of 2025, when Republicans assume control of the House?
Answer 1): It didn’t have to happen, and it could have been prevented, but it wasn’t the unmitigated disaster for the Democrats some believe it was. In fact, it may be just as well Democrats didn’t accomplish more in lame duck because there is evidence that what they had already enacted in 2023-24 cost them control of the House on Nov. 5 and may hurt them still more in future elections.
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Question 2):. Should House Democrats have passed more of the legislation they wanted prior to the election instead of waiting to try cramming a record number of bills through in Lame Duck?
Answer 2): It’s a tried-and-true strategy for a political party, especially with so narrow a majority, to pass as much important albeit controversial legislation as it can in the first year of a two-year session, and then take its foot off the pedal in the second year before the election. That’s what the Democrats did. What’s more, even if they had wanted to deviate from that approach, any chance they had early this year to keep pumping out bills they couldn’t because in late 2023 they temporarily lost their majority due to resignations and had to depend on Republicans for support, which was not forthcoming. After Democrats got their majority back last spring, it was too close to the election for them to dare getting anything “dicey” done. That’s when rancor began to build inside their caucus. All told, it’s probably just as well they didn’t try to do anything more, or they probably would have lost even more seats.
The simple truth of the matter is that Republicans had an anti-corporate welfare message which allowed them to build upon their growing strength with working class voters while also increasing their vote share with individuals that had previously supported Democrats.
Democrats should have spent 2024 focused on pocketbook issues, passing legislation focused on helping Michigan families deal with higher prices and inflation. Legislation like a “Working Parents Tax Credit might have helped at the ballot box. Taking action on road funding would also have been a smart move, since Michigan’s deteriorating infrastructure network is costing the average Michigan driver thousands of dollars annually. Ultimately, Democrats must regret having squandered so much of the legislative calendar to inaction instead of fighting for Democratic priorities. When voters asked, “What have you done for me lately?” an honest answer had to be “Not much.”
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Question 3): Speaker Joe Tate wants to run for mayor of Detroit next year to succeed the departing Mike Duggan. Tate had already stepped aside as the House Democrats’ minority leader in 2025-26, to be replaced by state Rep. Ranjeev Puri (D-Canton). But in his final days as Speaker, Tate obviously lost control of the House Democratic caucus and was roundly criticized by a number of fellow Democrats. What does this say about his future political prospects?
Answer 2): Any Tate campaign for Detroit mayor is now dead as a doornail, if it had any chance for success to begin with. No Speaker going back decades has left the Speakership with his tail between his legs like Tate is now. House dysfunction clearly set in at the end of Tate’s watch. But Tate’s fecklessness was exacerbated by a lack of leadership from the Governor and a clearly stated agenda. The Dems haven’t yet recovered from their loss of House control, which they didn’t expect after outspending their GOP opposition by more than 3-1. If the Democrats hadn’t lost so badly on Nov. 5, none of what happened in Lame Duck would have occurred. There was an orchestrated effort by a few House Democrats to politically embarrass Tate. This doesn’t speak well for party loyalty or for keeping their dirty laundry in their own house. By ending his speakership as happened, all Tate has done — should he become a candidate for mayor — is ensure that he will be asked the question: “How can you run a city of thousands when you can’t run a 56-member caucus?”
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Question 4): Incoming House Speaker Matt Hall (R-Richland Twp) announced six weeks ago that the price of House Republican support for anything inLame Duck would be fixing the state Supreme Court decision to preserve the 2018 initiative that will dramatically hike the minimum wage, institute paid sick leave, and end the tipped wage. House Democrats refused to address these issues. Republicans responded by walking out of the chamber en masse 10 days ago and never returning. What do the Republicans hope they gained politically by walking out over the tipped wage credit and earned sick time issue?
Answer 4): Republicans view the state Supreme Court decision as the equivalent of the 2022 U.S. Supreme Court Dobbs decision on abortion. House Republicans hope to make standing up for the business community, restaurant workers, and farmers everywhere a big issue. Unless it’s addressed by the Legislature and Gov. Whitmer –which will require Democratic cooperation — the GOP will make all these related issues very prominent in 2026. Republicans want to extend their recent wins into the future.
By demonstrating unified support for these issues, House Republicans are hoping to further solidify gains with voters who supported them in this past election cycle. So far, it has been an easy public relations win for Republicans. Short term, they have focused the spotlight on a House Democratic caucus that has ignored these issues and devolved into chaos. Long-term, Republicans will use the tipped wage credit and earned sick time issues as a negotiation tactic in 2025 with Senate Majority Leader Winnie BRINKS (D-Grand Rapids) and Governor Gretchen WHITMER.
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Question 5): What are the chances that restoring the tipped wage credit and earned sick time will be a winning issue for the Republicans in the 2026 Election?
Answer 5): It depends on what happens in the opening months of 2025. If Democrats cooperate with the GOP and “fix” these issues before the small business community and tipped workers face the consequences, these issues may largely go away. If a fix doesn’t happen, and restaurants close and there are layoffs, the rhetoric is likely to persist. It all depends on where these issue are at in 2026. The business community wants them resolved immediately, and Hall and the Republicans have grabbed hold of these issues, seeing them as an avenue to reaching working-class voters. Republicans perceive themselves as offering solutions to these issues as well as roads and others, and contend that Democrats offer nothing but corporate welfare and woke social policy that has been rejected by the voters. The GOP hopes their position will be shown even more dramatically if Donald TRUMP and Republicans in Congress pass ‘No Tax on Tips’ and ‘No Tax on Overtime’ after Michigan legislative Democrats and Whitmer threw restaurant workers and others under the bus. This, they feel, will cement the GOP hold on working class voters.
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Liberalism, like Gender Dysphoria is a mental disorder.
Conservatism, like religion, is a culture-enforced mental disorder.
R’s and D’s piss on each other while further restricting freedom generally. While those that grease the wheels of government gleefully go to the bank to the detriment of ordinary folks.
Someday, the public will rise up.
Consider these facts:
(A) America incarcerates a greater percentage of its population than any other nation on Earth:
(B) over 50% of all black males in the U.S. between 18 and 30 years old are either incarcerated, released on bond, or on probation or parole in a criminal proceeding;
(C) in California, the ACLU recently successfully partially invalidated a program to place certain high-risk juveniles under the criminal justice system jurisdiction BEFORE they committed any criminal offense;
(D) the privatizing of the criminal justice system in America has created a multi-billion dollar revenue stream which actually encourages business interests to promote intensive supervision of offenders within the court’s jurisdiction – this includes drug-testing, domestic abuse counseling, alcohol car ignition locks etc.
Americans are being squeezed from every direction to the extent we live under an almost fully military occupation.
Bill, you and I both know better. The Republicans (bloods) and Democrats (crips) are just two wings of the same bird; a vulture. They come to Lansing (and D.C.) with the thought of putting a $5.00 bill on the table and leaving with at least a $10.00. When they succeed, our taxes increase. The only problem is that most of us are left out of this equation. Like those of us not represented by a lobbyist.
Remember when Jennifer Granholm and her gang wanted to extend the sales tax to services? After the dust settled, those with a lobbyist were exempted; those without a lobbyist had to pay. Thankfully, this legislation never made it to Granholm’s desk. Perhaps that was due to Charlie Cain’s article on the subject, which simply made it far too embarrassing to sign such inequitable legislation
Excellent analysis on point ! Thank you, Bill Ballenger for this Christmas present !
The best issue is the “ working parents tax credit”. Further, I don’t see the LEADERSHIP in the state legislature for compromise and consensus on a road funding plan, partly due to the absence of the Governor and Lt. Gov.
This morning on Southeast Michigan TV, MSU Prof. Matt Grossman stated “the Governor lacked luster and substance”. (referring to the negotiations the past two weeks)
It certainly appears that there won’t be any change to the 2018 initiative that will hike the minimum wage, institute paid sick-leave and end the tip wage. Yes these are definite positive issues for Republicans to campaign on and support small business, restaurant workers and farmers.
I can assure you Sen. Winnie Brinks and Governor Whitmer will not concede anything on tipped wage credit and earned sick time. Therefore stalemate.
Similar to the auto workers I know of in southeast Michigan, Republicans will solidify their support with the working class, especially with no tax on tips and no tax on overtime.
This could be looking good for the GOP in 2025 and 2026.
The GOP needs to focus on tax issues – instead of abortion, election integrity, and other nonsense that has caused them to lose in election cycles in 2018, 2020, and 2022.
2024 was a good year for the Michigan Republicans. Sticking to issues workers and consumers care about translates into votes at election time.
Democrats in 2024 were pummeled by inflation, immigration crisis and the war in Gaza.
What happens if the House cannot get a quorum to properly adjourn, sine die, on December 31st?
Regarding question 1: Senator Ballenger is right. the MI Dems in the legislature did what they could (given slim majorities in both chambers), when they could (namely, in the first year and not in the second year, as is the historic custom). Had they done any more either in their second year or lurching toward leftist ideology, they would have lost more House seats in the 2024 election than they already did.
Regarding question 2: I could not agree more that the main missteps of Dems in both MI and nationally was their respective failure to address “pocketbook issues”. While the Dem PR constantly bloviated that “inflation is going down” on the campaign trail, they overlooked one key (most likely intentionally): prices were not going down. Declining Inflation is only one half the economic coin; the overarching issue is real wages (rate of wage increases relative to cost of living increases) declined over the last four years. The Dems accordingly paid the piper on Nov 5. The old saw held true: people largely vote with their wallets.
ANSWER 1a) Will Rogers said it best, “I’m not a member of any organized political party; I’m a Democrat.”
ANSWER 1b) Yes, most easily. Just get the caucus together and explain that we barely have a majority, and we must strategize accordingly. So we can pass everything we want but must do it at the appropriate time. Then set up a schedule and start passing legislation in the most politically proper manner. No attention need be paid to the Republicans. Perhaps all of the Democrats were not really on board with all of the proposed legislation which caused the failure to achieve what was theoretically possible.
ANSWER 1c) Yes, it did amount to a disaster. The proof is a majority of the legislation desired by the majority failed to pass. Even more of a disaster considering that the tea leaves lined up as 56 + 20 + 1. Fat chance that will occur anytime again in the near future.
ANSWER 2) Only the legislation that would help any particular member retain their seat. All the other wish list items could have been saved for lame duck. With even a modicum of organization, this legislation could have slid through like a greased pig. But when you have been in the minority for 40 years, you’re not psychologically prepared to prevail.
ANSWER 3) Fuggit about it. He won’t be living in the Manoogian Mansion anytime soon. Tate has more egg on his face then an IHOP cook that tripped and fell into a vat of cracked yolks. But it’s also an indictment to the Democrats who should have been a bit more flexible. Sometimes it’s better to get most of what you want, rather than all of what you want; worse yet is hardly getting anything that you want.
ANSWER 4) The Republicans actions in contrast to the Democrats are breathtaking. Since they were in the minority, the 100% walkout should not have amounted to anything more than sour grapes. But since the Democrats disintegrated, the Republicans actions were perceived as a master stroke. One side shows unity and solidarity while the other side shows confusion and disarray. Logic would dictate that it would be those holding the majority of seats reaping the harvest, not the minority.
ANSWER 5) It will be a winning issue provided House Republicans can pass it before the draconian effects kick in. It will be even more of a winning issue if the Democrat controlled Senate fails to pass companion legislation. Then the Republicans will ride the donkey to victory in 2026. If it sails through both chambers in early 2025 and is signed by the Grinch (who was conspicuously absent in the waning weeks of the lame duck session) the benefits to Republicans diminish.
Merry Christmas, Bill!
Nice and informative article.
Question 1: Good point on what wasn’t done. Part of the problem with such a slim majority in an era when bipartisanship and compromise are looked at as acts of heresy, blasphemy, treason or apostasy. (This is what happens when politics becomes your religion). Majorities that small give every member of the majority outsized influence. Look at the GOP majority in the House in DC. The “cure” is to cut early deals with the minority party by giving them some table scraps instead of crumbs or the finger.
QUESTION 2: Your last two paragraphs are spot on. One problem with being years in the political wilderness is that the various interest groups that have stood by you through thick and thin are looking for a reward for their loyal support, so you give it to them. Another problem is that when you do come in from the wilderness, sometimes you’re like the dog that finally caught the car. What’s next? One solution at the start of this legislative term would have been to run with Senator McBroom’s idea to treat – for pension purposes only – Corrections Officers in with the State Police. You would get some bipartisan support (at least McBroom), you would make SEIU and MCO happy. Repealing the pension tax? How could a “cut taxes” Republican say no? But they didn’t and this reflects on soon to be former Speaker Tate.
QUESTION 3: Which brings us to Speaker Tate. If he could not – or would not – control the House, his ability to run Detroit and work well with City Council does not appear to be good. I would not bet my money on him becoming Mike Duggan’s successor.
QUESTION 4: Matt Hall is trying to get back into the good graces of the donor class while simultaneously pretending to stand up for the working class. If he succeeds, we may see a Hall for Governor campaign.
QUESTION 5: In politics, most anything is possible. To pull this off, Matt Hall must become a political Monty Hall and not a petulant child. Being Monty Hall requires telling your more extremist, fanatical or rigid members NO and holding them to account when they “misbehave”. I will leave it to others who know these folks in Lansing better than I do as to which is more likely.
Tim Skubick on WKAR interviewed House Democratic Floor Leader Abraham Aiyash of Hamtramck, who criticized Rep. Peter Herzberg (D-Westland) for not discussing a bill – and Karen Winsett (D-Detroit) for walking out.
Herzberg, per Aiyash, objected to a bill for not having language Herzberg wanted, which was already in the bill, per Aiyash.
Aiyash is not running for re-election to his Michigan House seat.
Abraham Aiyash is leaving the Michigan House over disgust at the political infighting among Democrats. Tonya Meyers Phillips is replacing him in the House as his hand-picked successor.
Aiyash stunned his own district when he chose not to seek re-election, but by that time it was too late for any credible candidate to step forward and file timely. Phillips, a University Michigan Law School grad, was the only prominent candidate to seek the Democratic Party nomination in the Michigan House 7th District.
The WKAR interview is creating shock waves in Lansing political circles. He describes the Dems in Michigan as disorganized, uninformed and damaging their constituents through needless infighting.
While the GOP leaders in the Michigan House are not unsurprisingly gloating over Aiyash’s well-placed criticisms, many Democrats are also privately agreeing with him and see this as a bad omen going into the upcoming Michigan Democratic State Convention when a successor to Lavora Barnes as chairperson shall be made.
Hey Bill! Thanks for putting us to work through the Holidays. I hope you, and the TBR gang, had a great one!
Wrt Q#1: While the Marxists are aligned with the socialist proletarians, communism flourishes. But once the single state Bolsheviks take charge, then the proletarians wake up to the fact they’ve become the cats holding the proverbial bag. And they don’t like it. So, in this case they begin voting for Trump. And the “trifecta” predictably falls apart.
Not a disaster, they will come back strong counting on the ignorance and naivety of their liberty loving opponents. Which is also predictable. Such is this little sing-song game we call politics in America/Michigan.
I don’t know Speaker Tate very well, but it appears he tried to be a good Bolshevik and ramrod his proletarian sheep into areas that, even for proletarians, were just a bridge too far. They’ll come back for more, later.
Wrt Q#2: I suspect they got about as much as they could have. When they wanted additional bites of the apple is when the proletarians woke up. More brain washing is in order. As above, they’ll be back for more, later.
Wrt Q#3: Speaker Tate requires a new springboard. I suspect that if the Dem machine gets behind him, he could win the mayorship. They will clearly need to re-brand him, but he is young and is due his reward. He was VERY loyal to the “central committee”.
Wrt Q#4: Lets hand it to Speaker-elect Hall for performing a successful gambit. I concur with you, Bill, this was a risky maneuver. But it worked, let’s give him his due. Like Speaker Tate, I do not know Speaker-elect Hall very well. Herding Michigan Republicans have been akin to herding lightning bugs. I personally would not want to hang my hat on tipped wages and earned sick time to be a winning plank.
Wrt Q#5: I would think they need a few more meaty things like education dollars following kids/students and higher education funding reform to keep their tushes over the bar. Also, things like finally solving road funding (try similarities to other states, hint: Ohio), wouldn’t hurt as well. Lastly, they require a gubernatorial candidate properly well-known and removed from Trump but publicly paying him tribute. May I respectfully throw Secretary Betsy DeVos, Dr Sherry O’Donnell or Rep Lisa McClain into the mix? Personally, I like Lena Epstein and Tudor Dixon, too. Hmmm, I may be revealing a few patterns to my thinking here . . .
Bill, you make it worth waking up and hitting the internet these days. Please keep up the good work. Ya’ll, have a safe, sober and Happy New Year!!
I critiqued your governor candidate suggestions below – but I need to add that Joe Tate lacks the support of movers and shakers in Wayne County for him to have a successful candidacy for Detroit mayor.
Expect a current City Council member to become a front-runner.
(A) Betsy Devos is perceived as someone who threw Trump under the bus in 2021 and is disliked by populist Republicans in Michigan;
(B) Dr. Sherry O’Donnell is a respected Republican from west Michigan, but is not well-known in Metro Detroit where she will have to pull in substantial votes;
(C) Lena Epstein has some name recognition however she got clobbered in the 2018 Congressional election after beating Rocky Raczkowski narrowly in the GOP primary – she also lost a bid for a University of Michigan Board of Regents seat in 2022 – she has never beaten a Democrat in any general election;
(D) Tudor Dixon had her shot in 2022 for the governor’s seat after a Trump endorsement clinched the GOP gubernatorial nomination – and she lost decisively;
(E) Rep. Lisa McClain would be an excellent GOP nominee for governor – she luuuuuvs Donald Trump, she can pull in votes from Macomb and St. Clair counties and she has the respect of mainstream GOP leaders that she would need to have to raise funds needed for a gubernatorial run.