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You are here: Home / Uncategorized / KENTUCKY DERBY: DOES ANYBODY IN MICHIGAN CARE ABOUT IT?

KENTUCKY DERBY: DOES ANYBODY IN MICHIGAN CARE ABOUT IT?

April 28, 2024 by tbreport 12 Comments

Hard to believe anyone in Michigan does, given the way the state has treated its own horse racing industry. For the first time in 90 years, pari-mutuel horse racing is defunct in Michigan, at least for the time being. Northville Downs, Michigan’s last surviving track, closed its doors after its last standardbred race in February. The property in northwest Wayne Co. is being demolished, and it’s unclear whether the harness horses will find another venue to race. The thoroughbreds were killed off a decade ago.The brutal truth is that the state Lottery, the three Detroit casinos, the staggering number of Native American-owned casinos, and a hare-brained 2004 constitutional amendment have driven what once was a thriving racing industry into the ground. Four decades ago, Michigan was one of the top half-dozen standardbred (harness-racing) industries in the country, and the thoroughbreds were still racing at the Detroit Race Course (DRC) and Hazel Park. As many as eight race tracks were in operation — not only DRC, Hazel Park, and Northville Downs but also Jackson, Saginaw Valley Downs, Sports Creek Raceway near Flint, the Muskegon Race Course, and even tiny Mt. Pleasant Meadows, which featured quarter horse sprints and Arabians and Appaloosas.

Today, only some version of  Northville Downs has any hope of surviving in another location. A brand new track was scheduled to be built in nearby Plymouth Township so that the pacers and trotters would be able to compete in the pari-mutuel game as early as the fall of this year or, if not, 2025, but that has now foundered and is unlikely to be resurrected.Fighting back against this downward spiral, the American Horse Racing Council produced a 2016 study showing that the equine industry has a $2.6 billion impact on Michigan, including a $389 million contribution from racing that produces nearly 4,000 jobs.

Is there any hope things might improve? Maybe, because the Agricultural Equine Fund brought in about $9.5 million in 2022, and nearly $8 million in 2023. Anything over $8 million results in a payment of the excess to the track and the horsemen and breeders that can be used to bolster standardbred racing at any new facility. Other sources of money include simulcast wagering ($1.76 million in 2022 and some $1.5 million in 2023), but with all tracks in Michigan now closed, simulcast betting is dead, at least for the time being. However, there is also Advance Deposit Wagering ($883k in 2023), Lawful Internet Gaming taxes ($3 million), and Internet Sports Betting taxes (more than half a million bucks).

But it will take a lot more than that to revive the ancient “Sport of Kings,” the victim of repeated failures by successive governors and legislatures over the past two decades that have needlessly damaged the equine industry at a time when the state needs every economic tool in its arsenal in order to thrive.

But just because Michigan has destroyed its own horse racing doesn’t mean there aren’t still plenty of touts, railbirds, and racing afficianados out there who revere the sport and are following what’s going on with 2024’s three year-old colts and fillies headed into the $5 million Derby. That mean it’s time for …

A  KENTUCKY DERBY PICK

YES! —the latest chapter in “The Fastest Two Minutes in Sports” is upon us again.

This year’s Derby, the 150th, is this coming Saturday (May 4). It will once again be telecast (on NBC, Fanduel TV, Fox Sports, Racetrack TV Network, USA Network, and Peacock). Post time is supposed to be 6:57 p.m., but you can count on it being a little later than that.

Last year’s winner was 15-1 longshot Mage, only the third horse in a century and a half to win the Derby without having run as a 2-year-old. The colt had only three previous career starts, all in the first quarter of last year. Mage qualified for the Derby at the last minute because five other horses scratched, including the pre-race favorite, Forte.

The 2022 winner was an even bigger shocker — a onetime maiden claimer named Rich Strike, a last-minute entry from the also-eligible list when two other horses withdrew. Rich Strike roared from behind to win at near-record longshot odds of 80-1.

The four years before that constituted the WORST collective debacle in the long history of the Derby. Let us count the ways:

1) In the 2021 Derby, a 15-1 longshot, Medina Spirit, apparently won by half a length but then was disqualified for failing a post-race drug test (betamethasone). Another longshot, Mandaloun, was declared the winner and won the $1.86 million purse (but bettors were allowed to cash in immediately after the race based on what Churchill Downs then believed were the final on-track results). Furthermore, Medina Spirit’s trainer, Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, who had already won six Derbys in his fabled career, was suspended by racing authorities for two years. He can compete in this year’s Preakness and Belmont Stakes, but in February a judge upheld the Derby ban on Baffert. If that wasn’t enough, Medina Spirit dropped dead after a workout on Dec. 6, 2021. Maybe from a broken heart?

2) The 2020 Derby was unlike any other in history. Because of the Coronavirus, the race featured empty stands and infield, with no fans sipping mint juleps and wearing outlandish hats. And instead of the Derby being the first leg in the Triple Crown sequence on the first Saturday in May, it was postponed four months until September, after the Belmont Stakes, which was held at its regular time in June. The Preakness, usually the second of the jewels, was postponed to Oct. 3. It was the first time since 1931 the Derby wasn’t the first race in the Triple Crown and the first since 1945 it wasn’t held in May. Other than that, this was the only recent Derby that produced a result without controversy — Authentic won it in an upset, holding off the favorite, Tiz the Law, who had already won the Belmont. Oh, by the way, who trained Authentic? Bob Baffert.

3) In 2019, the apparent winner, Maximum Security, became the first horse ever disqualified by the stewards on a foul claim, and a controversial one at that. The runner-up in the actual race, 65-1 longshot Country House, was declared the winner. The huge payout to those who bet on the winner was the second largest in Derby history.

4) In 2018, it was Bob Baffert again. He trained Justify, who won the Derby and went on to win the Preakness and Belmont, making the colt the second Triple Crown winner in a four-year span. American Pharoah also pulled off the hat trick in 2o15. Who was that horse trained by? Bob Baffert. However, months after the race, The New York Times dropped a bombshell story that Justify had also failed a drug test, but long BEFORE the Derby. That raised the question of whether Justify should have been allowed to compete in the Derby at all, forever tainting his victory although his official on-track achievements can’t be taken away from him.

This year? The only thing worse than the above would be a seven-horse pile-up on Churchill Downs’s far turn, with deaths and injuries, human and equine. It’s always a possibility in racing, plus all the barn fires and mysterious diseases that have killed countless race horses in the past few years, especially in California.

Let’s pray that doesn’t happen. If not, let’s hope last year’s Derby proves the classic is back on track, on schedule and with a full crowd, always one of the largest in sports.  In Michigan — where live horse racing has been virtually destroyed by greedy lobbyists, mercenary flacks, and bungling Lansing politicians — legally you could bet on it in 2023, for the 29th straight year, at Northville Downs — but NOT ANYMORE now that the track has closed.

Where to bet on the Kentucky Derby TODAY in Michigan

So, when it’s time to get your bets in on the Kentucky Derby, you have only one option to consider. Here’s the scoop:

  1. Mobile or online: Kentucky Derby betting online or via your mobile device are hands-down the most convenient options. TVG Racing, an industry leader in horse racing betting, is the place to go on both fronts. Setting up an account is a piece of cake, and you can place your bets whenever you’re ready in quick and painless fashion.

Therefore, with a little bit of planning and a credit/debit card, you can set up a pre-paid account with a number of internet betting sites and then watch the race in the comfort of your living room, office, field tent or jail cell. Also, Advanced Deposit Wagering (ADW) is now legal in Michigan, but now it’s available only online.

Does this year’s $5 million classic remind us of years before the last six when favorites like Orb, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Nyquist and Justify all won? Or will it be more like that 2020 melee, when Authentic pulled off an upset at odds of 8-1, or 2012, when a 12-1 longshot named I’ll Have Another embarrassed the favorites? Or what about 2003, when Empire Maker was a prohibitive choice over all the other horses? No, he didn’t win.

In other words, Derbys are like snowflakes — they’re all the same, yet they’re all different, especially so this year. The race is always run at Kentucky’s Churchill Downs. It’s always a mile and a quarter, the horses are all 3-year-olds, and in recent years the field has always been huge— up to a maximum of 20 entries. But everything else is different and varied — trainers and owners and jockeys and especially the horses they’re handling, and track conditions, as well as the past performances of all the contenders.

One other complicating factor: Even with just six days remaining before the race, we can’t be absolutely sure what horses are going to start. Remember, past favorites like A.P. Indy in 1992 and Forte last year have been scratched on the eve of the contest. In fact, multiple horses have been scratched the past two years, just hours before the race, and that’s how Rich Strike and Mage, taking their places, were allowed to enter.

So, which horse do we pick this year? Post positions were assigned yesterday evening (Sat., April 27), and that can be all-important. For example, the #5 post has won more than any other (10 times), and horses running from the #10 hole have finished in the money 25 times, more than any other (including Secretariat in 1973). No horse has ever won from the #17 post. So who drew #17 this year? The favorite, Fierceness (the #1 post is nearest the rail, the 20th farthest away).

This year, Churchill Downs’s racing secretary has established Fierceness, runaway winner of this year’s Florida Derby, as the pre-race favorite at odds of 5-2. That’s not as strong a betting choice as Tiz the Law was four years ago at 3-5, but that colt had already won the Belmont Stakes three months earlier.

Who else is in the field? The second betting favorite is Sierra Leone, winner of the Blue Grass Stakes, running from the #2 hole at odds of 3-1. The next three favorites are getting into longshot territory — Catching Freedom, winner of the Louisiana Derby, at 8-1; Japanese invader Forever Young (10-1); and Fountain of Youth Stakes hero Dornoch at 20-1. They are running from #4, #11, and #1, respectively.

One factor none of these horses or their jockeys and trainers will have to worry about this year is the legendary trainer Bob Baffert — his two-year suspension in 2021 by Churchill Downs has been extended another year and he’s lost an appeal of that ruling in court. Therefore, he can’t compete in this year’s Derby although he can in the upcoming Preakness and Belmont.

It may be a Baffert-free Derby, but another top trainer will be very much in evidence — the highly-regarded Todd Pletcher. Pletcher has won two Derbys and four Belmonts, and he’s the all-time North American equine money-winner as a trainer. He has only one entry this year, but it’s the brilliant (albeit erratic) favorite, Fierceness, who will be ridden by three-time Derby winner John Velasquez. Last year, Pletcher saddled the heavy pre-race favorite, Forte, but he was scratched just before post time.

It’s important to remember — betting continues all the rest of this week up to post time, and the odds on all 20 horses in the field are certain to change by late Saturday afternoon. Remember, too, how “impossibilities” in racing have very recently turned into “It just happened!”

When all is said and done, let’s go with Fierceness, despite some red flags, to win. He was last year’s 2-year-old champion, and he either blows away the field or fades badly. If you want to hedge your bet, pick Fierceness and either Sierra Leone, trained by Chad Brown, or Catching Freedom, trained by Brad Cox, in a quinella, meaning they must finish 1-2 in either order. If you want to have a little fun, plunk for all three of the above-named horses in a TRIFECTA, but you have to pick ’em in exact order of finish for the jackpot.

Do you want to be really adventurous and plunk for a longshot like Mage last year or Rich Strike in 2022? The Ballenger Report advised last year’s bettors that Mage at 45-1 was one to watch, and he produced. This year that horse may be Just a Touch at not-so-long odds of 10-1, running from the #8 hole, which was Mage’s starting point last year. Just A Touch won more than $281,000 in just three career starts. After breaking his maiden in his debut, he finished second in back-to-back-races, including a runner-up finish to Sierra Leone in the Blue Grass Stakes. Another longshot at maybe 20-1 is Track Phantom, trained by highly-regarded Steve Asmussen, who is long overdue to win his first Derby after failing with his first 25 entries. Asmussen is the all-time leading winner in North American racing history with more than 10,000 victories. Track Phantom will start from the #12 post. Want another longshot? Maybe Honor Marie, running from #7, at 20-1.

Anyway you cut it, the biggest challenge for each of these colts (there will be no fillies this year) will be negotiating his way around and through up to 19 other horses, as opposed to the skimpy fields they’ve faced in the past few months.

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Reader Interactions

Comments

  1. John C Stewart says

    April 28, 2024 at 5:58 pm

    Not much. Horse racing is inextricably linked to a CASINO-WHICH IS THE ONLY WAY HORSE RACING IS FINANCIALLY VIABLE.. Northville will make the highest and best use of the property with a $350 MILLION DOLLAR CONDO PROJECT. THIS Project is only second in size to the new Hudson Bldg. ( Dan Gilbert) in downtown Detroit. We need to go onward and forward.

    Reply
  2. Tim Sullivan says

    April 28, 2024 at 6:27 pm

    Nice article, Bill. Though I was a very infrequent visitor of Northville Downs, the demise of Northville Downs (destruction/tear down has begun) truly ends an era. In my youth you could see horses crossing the street (an unusual site for a city boy from Detroit); visitors coming in from out of town; Cub Scout outings; even Bob Geake campaign fundraisers; all held there. People forget that at one time, the Downs was a serious contributor to the City of Northville’s treasury. If it still were, I suspect it would still be open. Money talked then and still talks now.

    Unfortunately, the people have decided they don’t want horse racing. At least here. Local opposition is usually a bit silly. Moving into a community with a racetrack – or an airport or a freeway that was there before you moved there – and then complaining about it, could very well be a definition of chutzpah. I remember discussing complaints from Northvillains about Northville State Hospital (my former place of employment) with my then state rep Gerry Law. I could not understand then, and still don’t understand, how they could complain about Northville State Hospital (which truth be told stood out like a sore thumb along West Seven Mile Road) which was there before their houses were built or more likely before they were born. Some of this behavior is NIMBY; or a fear of a loss in home value (they never say why or how); or traffic (though stores and other developments often bring more traffic); somehow offending their sensibilities; animal rights; or just good old-fashioned ignorance.

    Regardless of the reason, it marks the death of part of our past. It will be missed.

    Reply
  3. Royal says

    April 28, 2024 at 7:34 pm

    Wow Bill, you sure know this sport.

    30 – plus years ago I got very interested in harness racing. My enthusiasm was egged on by several co-workers who were deeply into the sport, as owners/racers/trainers. Not to mention a high school chum becoming a vet at a local track. I spent hours and hours at Hazel Park betting on the sulky’s. I got my log book at Northville Downs but didn’t go too far there. I came within a whisker of buying my first pony down at the Adrian auction . . . but didn’t. The particulars of the sport I found way back then,

    1) The fan enthusiasm is huge. I am sure with the proper encouragement it would easily be as large as Formula 1, NHRA and SCCA, if not NASCAR.
    2) The various horse trusts (one of which you mentioned) are lucrative but too small for the sport, especially the Harness horse trusts. Albeit they are basically on the up and up. But alas, too small to grease political hands. Michigan missed wonderful chances to support the sport back in the ’90’s when I was interested and I got the connotation its always been that way. Simulcast betting was proposed back then and voted down. From there, they couldn’t compete with the casinos.
    3) There IS a lot of shady dealings in the sport. Pervasive funky fires or blood and respiratory diseases kill a huge number of noncompetitive horses (like the dog racing industry). ‘Tis what killed off the perfect specimen of a pony I nearly bought. Trainers (and perhaps Vets) are extremely clever in working around the rules.
    4) If there is to be a resurgence in the sport its going to take a LOT of subsidization from the state that would work closely with the current horse sport trusts. And I would totally encourage a huge amount of regulation considering the sinister element that pervades all gambling genre’. ‘Course, I won’t hold my breath on that one.

    What sparks this topic? Just the Derby?

    Reply
    • Leanne says

      April 29, 2024 at 12:28 am

      “Wow, Bill, you sure know this sport.”

      Mr. Ballenger is the former State of Michigan Michigan Racing Commissioner.

      He served from 1982-1985.

      Reply
  4. Mike H. says

    April 28, 2024 at 8:17 pm

    Thanks, Bill. Just like unfolding the DRF at the start of Derby week with some great local color and history thrown in. Really enjoyed it.

    Reply
  5. Jack Jackowski says

    April 28, 2024 at 8:52 pm

    Why is attending NASCAR races so popular, which from my point of view, is watching traffic. In contrast to the sublime experience of viewing horse racing?

    Reply
    • Matt Crehan says

      May 11, 2024 at 11:53 am

      Horse Racing is the Amish version of NASCAR.

      Reply
  6. Tom Shields says

    April 29, 2024 at 1:06 pm

    I’ve won a few dollars paying close attention to Bill’s pick’s over the years. Always put a couple of dollars on his long shots.

    Reply
  7. Bonnie Moran says

    April 29, 2024 at 5:11 pm

    Your Derby report is always my favorite, thanks for making it a tradition, Bill.

    Reply
  8. 10x25mm says

    May 2, 2024 at 8:32 pm

    There are still six horse tracks in SW Ontario within reasonable proximity of SE Michigan and the Thumb. You have to bet cartoon money, but it converts. There are also tracks in the vicinities of Indianapolis and Cleveland.

    Reply
  9. Tom Shields says

    May 5, 2024 at 12:57 pm

    Maybe next year Bill!

    Reply
  10. Matt Crehan says

    May 7, 2024 at 11:25 pm

    To: WSB
    From: MJC

    1) Did your chosen picks win, place and show?
    2) If so, how much money did you pocket?
    3) Will you be sharing any of these proceeds with your faithful TBR readers?

    Reply

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