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You are here: Home / Uncategorized / KENTUCKY DERBY: DO MICHIGANDERS CARE ABOUT IT?

KENTUCKY DERBY: DO MICHIGANDERS CARE ABOUT IT?

April 27, 2025 by tbreport 10 Comments

Hard to believe anyone in Michigan does, given the way the state has treated its own horse racing industry. For the first time in 90 years, pari-mutuel horse racing is defunct in Michigan, at least for the time being. Northville Downs, Michigan’s last surviving track, closed its doors after its last standardbred race early last year. The property in northwest Wayne Co. has been demolished, and it’s unclear whether the harness horses will find another venue to race. The former owners of Northville just had their lawsuit against Plymouth Twp, where they had hoped to build a new track, thrown out of court.

The thoroughbreds were killed off a decade ago. The brutal truth is that the state Lottery, the three Detroit casinos, the staggering number of Native American-owned casinos, cell phone all-sports betting, and a hare-brained 2004 constitutional amendment have driven what once was a thriving racing industry into the ground. Four decades ago, Michigan was one of the top half-dozen standardbred (harness-racing) industries in the country, and the thoroughbreds were still racing at the Detroit Race Course (DRC) and Hazel Park. As many as eight race tracks were in operation — not only DRC, Hazel Park, and Northville Downs but also Jackson, Saginaw Valley Downs, Sports Creek Raceway near Flint, the Muskegon Race Course, and even tiny Mt. Pleasant Meadows, which featured quarter horse sprints and Arabians and Appaloosas.

Today, only some version of  Northville Downs has any hope of surviving in another location, but the only sign so far is a limited harness meet at the Barry Co. Fairgrounds near Hastings., approved by the Michigan Gaming Control Board. Fighting back against this downward spiral, the American Horse Racing Council produced a 2016 study showing that the equine industry has a $2.6 billion impact on Michigan, including a $389 million contribution from racing that produces nearly 4,000 jobs. But pari-mutuel horse racing as been killed in Michigan by the pure greed of the casinos and Michigan’s Lottery, where bettors rarely win because the house (or the State of Michigan) has stacked the deck against all participants. Not so with pari-mutuel, which it has been proven rewards a bettor’s smarts and hard work with a steady income.
Is there any hope things might improve? Maybe, because the Agricultural Equine Fund brought in about $9.5 million in 2022, and nearly $8 million in 2023. Anything over $8 million results in a payment of the excess to the track and the horsemen and breeders that can be used to bolster standardbred racing at any new facility. Other sources of money include simulcast wagering ($1.76 million in 2022 and some $1.5 million in 2023), but with all tracks in Michigan now closed, simulcast betting is virtually dead, at least for the time being. However, there is also Advance Deposit Wagering ($883k in 2023), Lawful Internet Gaming taxes ($3 million), and Internet Sports Betting taxes (more than half a million bucks).Still,  it will take a lot more than that to revive the ancient “Sport of Kings,” the victim of repeated failures by successive governors and legislatures over the past two decades that have needlessly damaged the equine industry at a time when the state needs every economic tool in its arsenal in order to thrive. But just because Michigan has destroyed its own horse racing doesn’t mean there aren’t still plenty of touts, railbirds, and racing afficianados out there who revere the sport and are following what’s going on with 2025’s three year-old colts and fillies headed into the $5 million Derby. That mean it’s time for …

A  KENTUCKY DERBY PICK

YES! —the latest chapter in “The Fastest Two Minutes in Sports” is upon us again.

This year’s Derby, the 151st, is this coming Saturday (May 3). It will once again be telecast (on NBC, Fanduel TV, Fox Sports, Racetrack TV Network, USA Network, and Peacock). Post time is supposed to be 6:57 p.m., but you can count on it being a little later than that.

Last year’s winner at lengthy odds of 20-1 was Mystik Dan, and the 2023 winner was 15-1 longshot Mage, only the third horse in a century and a half to win the Derby without having run as a 2-year-old. The colt had only three previous career starts, all in the first quarter of 2023. Mage qualified for the Derby at the last minute because five other horses scratched, including the pre-race favorite, Forte.

The 2022 winner was an even bigger shocker — a onetime maiden claimer named Rich Strike, a last-minute entry from the also-eligible list when two other horses withdrew. Rich Strike roared from behind to win at near-record longshot odds of 80-1.

The four years before that constituted the WORST collective debacle in the long history of the Derby. Let us count the ways:

1) In the 2021 Derby, a 15-1 longshot, Medina Spirit, apparently won by half a length but then was disqualified for failing a post-race drug test (betamethasone). Another longshot, Mandaloun, was declared the winner and won the $1.86 million purse (but bettors were allowed to cash in immediately after the race based on what Churchill Downs then believed were the final on-track results). Furthermore, Medina Spirit’s trainer, the silver-haired Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, who had already won six Derbys in his fabled career, was suspended by racing authorities for three years. If that wasn’t enough, Medina Spirit dropped dead after a workout on Dec. 6, 2021. Maybe from a broken heart?

2) The 2020 Derby was unlike any other in history. Because of the Coronavirus, the race featured empty stands and infield, with no fans sipping mint juleps and wearing outlandish hats. And instead of the Derby being the first leg in the Triple Crown sequence on the first Saturday in May, it was postponed four months until September, after the Belmont Stakes, which was held at its regular time in June. The Preakness, usually the second of the jewels, was postponed to Oct. 3. It was the first time since 1931 the Derby wasn’t the first race in the Triple Crown and the first since 1945 it wasn’t held in May. Other than that, this was the only recent Derby that produced a result without controversy — Authentic won it in an upset, holding off the favorite, Tiz the Law, who had already won the Belmont. Oh, by the way, who trained Authentic? Bob Baffert.

3) In 2019, the apparent winner, Maximum Security, became the first horse ever disqualified by the stewards on a foul claim, and a controversial one at that. The runner-up in the actual race, 65-1 longshot Country House, was declared the winner. The huge payout to those who bet on the winner was the second largest in Derby history.

4) In 2018, it was Bob Baffert again. He trained Justify, who won the Derby and went on to win the Preakness and Belmont, making the colt the second Triple Crown winner in a four-year span. American Pharoah also pulled off the hat trick in 2o15. Who was that horse trained by? Bob Baffert. However, months after the race, The New York Times dropped a bombshell story that Justify had also failed a drug test, but long BEFORE the Derby. That raised the question of whether Justify should have been allowed to compete in the Derby at all, forever tainting his victory although his official on-track achievements can’t be taken away from him.

This year? The only thing worse than the above would be a seven-horse pile-up on Churchill Downs’s far turn, with deaths and injuries, human and equine. It’s always a possibility in racing, plus all the barn fires and mysterious diseases that have killed countless race horses in the past few years, especially in California.

Let’s pray that doesn’t happen. If not, let’s hope last year’s Derby proves the classic is back on track, on schedule and with a full crowd, always one of the largest in sports.  In Michigan — where live horse racing has been virtually destroyed by greedy lobbyists, mercenary flacks, and bungling Lansing politicians — legally you could bet on it in 2023, for the 30th straight year, at Northville Downs — but NOT ANYMORE now that the track has closed. Maybe Hastings is the only hope.

Where to bet on the Kentucky Derby TODAY in Michigan

So, when it’s time to get your bets in on the Kentucky Derby, you have only one option to consider. Here’s the scoop:

  1. Mobile or online: Kentucky Derby betting online or via your mobile device are hands-down the most convenient options. TVG Racing, an industry leader in horse racing betting, is the place to go on both fronts. Setting up an account is a piece of cake, and you can place your bets whenever you’re ready in quick and painless fashion.

Therefore, with a little bit of planning and a credit/debit card, you can set up a pre-paid account with a number of internet betting sites and then watch the race in the comfort of your living room, office, field tent or jail cell. Also, Advanced Deposit Wagering (ADW) is now legal in Michigan, but now it’s available only online.

Does this year’s $5 million classic remind us of years before the last seven when favorites like Orb, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Nyquist and Justify all won? Or will it be more like that 2020 melee, when Authentic pulled off an upset at odds of 8-1, or 2012, when a 12-1 longshot named I’ll Have Another embarrassed the favorites? Or what about 2003, when Empire Maker was a prohibitive choice over all the other horses? No, he didn’t win.

In other words, Derbys are like snowflakes — they’re all the same, yet they’re all different, especially so this year. The race is always run at Kentucky’s Churchill Downs. It’s always a mile and a quarter, the horses are all 3-year-olds, and in recent years the field has always been huge— up to a maximum of 20 entries. But everything else is different and varied — trainers and owners and jockeys and especially the horses they’re handling, and track conditions, as well as the past performances of all the contenders.

One other complicating factor: Even with just six days remaining before the race, we can’t be absolutely sure what horses are going to start. Remember, past favorites like A.P. Indy in 1992 and Forte in 2023 have been scratched on the eve of the contest. In fact, multiple horses have been scratched the past three years, just hours before the race, and that’s how Rich Strike and Mage, taking their places, were allowed to enter.

So, which horse do we pick this year? Post positions were assigned yesterday evening (Sat., April 26), and that can be all-important. For example, the #5 post has won more than any other (10 times), and horses running from the #10 hole have finished in the money 25 times, more than any other (including Secretariat in 1973). No horse has ever won from the #17 post. So who drew #17 last year? The favorite, Fierceness (the #1 post is nearest the rail, the 20th farthest away). Needless to say, Fierceness didn’t win.

This year, Churchill Downs’s racing secretary has established Journalism, running from the #8 hole, as the pre-race favorite at odds of 3-1. That’s not as strong a betting choice as Tiz the Law was five years ago at 3-5, but that colt had already won the Belmont Stakes three months earlier, as noted above.

Who else is in the field? The second-betting favorite is Sovereignty at 5-1. Sandman, who won the Arkansas Derby three weeks ago, is the third betting choice at 6-1. Then there is Tappit’s Street at 10-1 and Burnham Square, who won the Blue Grass Stakes two weeks ago, at 12-1.

One factor all of these horses or their jockeys and trainers will have to worry about this year is the legendary trainer Bob Baffert — his three-year suspension in 2021 by Churchill Downs has ended and he’s back with two entries — Rodriguez and Citizen Bull. Baffert has won more Triple Crown races than anyone (16), and he’s tied for the lead with the late Ben Jones with six Derby triumphs. Rodriguez went wire-to-wire in winning the Wood Memorial at New York’s Aqueduct two weeks ago, and Citizen Bull was the 2-year-old Horse of the Year.

It’s important to remember — betting continues all the rest of this week up to post time, and the odds on all 20 horses in the field are certain to change by late Saturday afternoon. Remember, too, how “impossibilities” in racing have very recently turned into “It just happened!”

When all is said and done, let’s go with Rodriguez, at relatively long odds of 12-1, to win. Not only is he trained by Baffert, but he’ll be ridden by the great Mike Smith, one of the all-time great jockeys. If you want to hedge your bet, pick Rodriguez  and either Sandman or Sovereignty in a quinella, meaning they must finish 1-2 in either order. If you want to have a little fun, plunk for all three of the above-named horses in a TRIFECTA, but you have to pick ’em in exact order of finish for the jackpot.

Do you want to be really adventurous and plunk for a longshot like Mage in 2023 or Rich Strike in 2022? The Ballenger Report advised  bettors two years ago that Mage at 45-1 was one to watch, and he produced. There are plenty of entries in this year’s field with odds at least that long, so study up and pick one of them for a big pay-off.

Anyway you cut it, the biggest challenge for each of these colts (there will be no fillies this year) will be negotiating his way around and through up to 19 other horses, as opposed to the skimpy fields they’ve faced in the past few months.

***************************************

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Reader Interactions

Comments

  1. Rob Huth says

    April 27, 2025 at 7:42 pm

    Wait, what happened to the “System?” And no mention of Journalism? Hmm.

    Young racing enthusiast client of mine owns Schwartz Creek Racetrack. Casinos have kept us from opening.

    Reply
  2. John Stewart says

    April 27, 2025 at 8:40 pm

    Bill-A limited License for harness racing was granted to Hastings, Michigan by the Michigan gaming and control board
    The Carlo Brothers have reported that more than 90% of their revenue came from other types of gambling, and the remaining percentage was from harness racing.
    The mixed housing development at Northville is beautiful, including highlighting daylighting the river. There will be million dollar condos where people can walk to town. ( Highest and BEST USE of the land is the law)
    The guest on Off The Record , stated that Michigan is only second to New Jersey for number of gambling transactions and that there is a public health addiction problem in Michigan. But he is a huge advocate of sports betting.
    The Michigan gaming and control board is not happy with Plymouth Township and they do provide OVERSIGHT & ACCOUNTABILITY. You are one of the most informed persons on this issue as a former commissioner of racing.

    Reply
    • Leanne says

      April 28, 2025 at 1:14 am

      As reported in Harness Racing News, a 2025 simulcast permit was granted by the Michigan Gaming Control Board (MGCB) for dates at the Hastings Fairgrounds.

      The MGCB approved a total of 30 Standardbred race dates from Tuesday, April 29th thru Wednesday, June 25th and also Tuesday August 12th thru Wednesday, September 17th with live racing to be held two days per week, with not less than eight live horse races programmed per race date and no more than 16 live horse races per race day.

      The permit application was filed pursuant to the Horse Racing Law of 1995 and relevant promulgated rules of the Michigan Administrative Code. The applicant was Northville Downs, LLC.

      Reply
  3. 10x25mm says

    April 28, 2025 at 6:10 am

    You didn’t mention sports betting on cell phones, which seems to have sucked all the oxygen out of horse racing. Horse racing was the 8th most popular sport to bet on in 2023, besting only soccer, golf and tennis.

    Reply
  4. Michael Pratt says

    April 28, 2025 at 10:13 am

    Great Job as always Bill I sold feed and Hay to all those tracks and has cost us a lot of income to the farm and have went an got an off the farm job to replace that income but no one in Lansing even cares about the local farms and especially us family farms ,I can give a years worth of writing on that issue, Thanks again for covering the forgotten issues.

    Reply
  5. LaRea Lea Kremhelmer says

    April 28, 2025 at 5:43 pm

    The recent issues that have devastated horse racing in Michigan have had wide ranging effects. Mostly caused by politics in a variety of ways. An industry that provided employment to many, entertainment to many others and lifetime careers to multigenerational families. Places to go for nice dinners and good entertainment even if you didn’t gamble. It has been sad to watch this happen in a state that needed the diversity and supported our agriculture gone by the way side. I am guessing the same person who loves the high end apartments/town houses is the same person who wants every piece of farm land in Michigan to remain just the way it is. Not in my back yard. Sad treat an entire industry as throw away.

    Reply
  6. 10x25mm says

    May 2, 2025 at 10:04 pm

    Churchill Downs deferred a planned $ 1 billion improvement of its racetrack facilities today. “The decision to delay these construction projects is due to the increasing uncertainty surrounding construction costs related to tariff and trade disputes as well as current macro-economic conditions,” the corporation said.

    There is reason to be skeptical about CEO Bill Carstanjen’s rationale. Churchill Downs did unveil newly planned, less expensive renovations of the racetrack’s Finish Line suites, Trophy Room and Mansion. These renovations will only cost $25 million to $30 million.

    Churchill Downs Inc.(CHDN) stock popped 2.5% today after this announcement.

    Reply
  7. 10x25mm says

    May 11, 2025 at 10:37 pm

    Kentucky Derby postscript, from Reuters:

    “Junior Alvarado, who rode Sovereignty to victory in last weekend’s Kentucky Derby, has been fined $62,000 and suspended two racing days for striking the horse more times than is allowed, horse racing authorities said on Saturday [10 May 2025].

    Alvarado whipped the bay colt eight times during the race, above the maximum six allowed by the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority. Had he used the riding crop 10 times during the race, he would have been disqualified.”

    Reply
  8. 10x25mm says

    May 17, 2025 at 9:25 pm

    (Edit)

    Journalism came from behind to win the thrilling 150th running of the Preakness Stakes. Sovereignty was not entered because trainer Bill Mott decided to skip the Maryland race, citing the short two-week turnaround. Sovereignty will be entered into the the Belmont on June 7.

    Reply
  9. 10x25mm says

    May 18, 2025 at 4:49 am

    The Maryland Board of Public Works approved a demolition contract for Pimlico. Every facility on the Pimlico grounds will be demolished and entirely new facilities will be constructed over the next two years, at a cost of $ 500 million. The Preakness will be run at Laurel Park next year and return to the new Pimlico in 2027.

    The Maryland Thoroughbred Racetrack Operating Authority created a redevelopment plan that’s now state law. The 2027 Pimlico will have 40 entirely new buildings, including the stakes barns — an area that will be rebuilt with public activity space in mind.

    Laurel Park will be demolished and repurposed after the new Pimlico is reopened.

    Maybe Michigan needs a Thoroughbred Racetrack Operating Authority.

    Reply

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