Question 1): What’s the most realistic scenario for how the Michigan Republican Party can ultimately resolve the Kristina KARAMO mess?
Answer 1): Rival factions of the Michigan Republican Party convened separately Saturday and last week, but not to make peace. Rather, it was how to devise ways to destroy each other. One camp elected former U.S. Rep. Pete Hoekstra to be the party’s new chairman, but the other group stuck with incumbent Kristina Karamo, denying she’d ever been legally ousted. So, no, there is no such thing as a “realistic’ scenario that could resolve the mess that is Karamo and the state GOP. We’re in virgin territory here, because nothing like this debacle has ever happened before. Is there a replacement out there who can straddle the grassroots/donor divide? No such person exists in the current environment and, besides, why would the grassroots hand over power just because Karamo has imploded? There are plenty of folks who think they can run the state party better, but could Hoekstra or anyone else, really? An ‘optimistic’ scenario would be for Ronna Romney McDaniel to come to the rescue — the RNC might be able to jump in and slap a few people upside the head and put things right — but so far she’s resisted. And, yes, this could all end up in litigation. In fact, it already has — in a couple of circuit courts. Some judge (or judges) will have to determine who the legal leadership of state Republicans really is. The judges will decide who is entitled to the keys, books, balances, and all that. There may be some follow-up proceedings, involving threats of contempt citations. That’s how bad things have gotten.
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Question 2): The Metro Detroit Police Chiefs have endorsed former Congressman Mike ROGERS for the U.S. Senate instead of former Detroit Police Chief James CRAIG. What does this say about Craig’s viability as a candidate?
Answer 2): It says that James Craig was a miserable candidate for the Republican nomination for governor when he ran in 2021 and 2022 before his petitions were thrown out as fraudulent. He was inarticulate, incompetent and he has no talent at all for being a candidate. The MDPC constitutes the ‘on-the-ground’ local police chiefs in every Southeast Michigan township and city, so their preference for Rogers over a fellow law enforcement officer is telling. The chiefs have made the right choice for the U.S.Senate even though Rogers currently lags Craig in the polls because of the latter’s higher name ID in Metro Detroit.
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Question 3): The Lansing State Journal ran this headline last week : “What’s on the agenda for Dem legislative leaders?” Written by Clara Hendrickson for the USA TODAY Network, the article quoted House Speaker Joe Tate (D-Detroit) and Senate Majority Leader Winnie Brinks (D-Grand Rapids) talking about prescription drug affordability and economic development but not the elephant in the room — legislative transparency and ethics. But wait! Didn’t lawmakers take care of that at the end of last year?
Before we forget, let’s review what has happened on efforts to update campaign finance and political disclosure laws. Remember, in 2022, Michigan voters overwhelming adopted Proposal 1. That constitutional amendment provided for annual financial disclosure by legislators and other state officers. The Legislature was given till the end of the 2023 legislative session to enact a financial disclosure law or have the courts intervene. The Legislature dragged its feet but DID finally tackle this mandate from the voters, albeit with as little ‘reform’ as possible. Attempts to have officials disclose contributors to any 501 C organization which that official might be connected to failed. Governor Whitmer was only too glad to sign that scaled-down disclosure law. Her affiliated 501 4 organization itself reported raising $12.9 million in 2022. The donors to Whitmer’s Road to Michigan’s Future remain undisclosed to the public.
Shortly thereafter, Attorney General Dana Nessel indicted two aides of former House Speaker Lee Chatfield (R-Levering) on multiple felony charges. Nessel’s indictments, plus her comments excoriating the state’s feckless “sunshine” laws, should have made lawmakers realize how badly they had botched their mandate to flesh out Proposal 1. Some embarrassed lawmakers scrambled to pledge they were going to “take action” to stop anything like what Chatfield’s factotums allegedly did from happening again. Clearly, legislators could have done this long ago (or even last year), but self-interest and lack of courage got in the way.
Now, they have another chance to act. However, House Democrats find they don’t have a majority anymore, and won’t have for at least another three months. Meanwhile, Republicans have shown no signs of cooperating with any part of the Democrats’ ‘agenda.’ Democrats couldn’t get anything accomplished last week in the Legislature’s first round of action (or non-action) in 2024.
So, what next? If lawmakers face total gridlock, should the House simply adjourn indefinitely, or at least take a three-month recess, until Democrats regain the majority on April 16, when they win the two special elections in House districts 13 and 25?
Answer 3): As of now, Republicans seem prepared to paralyze the chamber into inaction. According to House rules, the chamber needs a quorum, or a majority of the members elected and serving, to do business. With a 108-person House, that means 55 members must be present before voting can begin. Neither party has more than 54. So, even if the Democrats insist that many Republicans are “within the bar of the House” and that there IS a quorum even if no GOP lawmaker has declared himself or herself ‘present,’ it won’t make any difference should Democrats put anything to a vote because, if no Republican votes for anything, the measure can’t pass. These games may continue, with House Republican Leader Matt Hall (R-Kalamazoo) declaring, “House Democrats are in disarray as they disregard shared power and dismiss bipartisan discussions about how to find common ground and solve the biggest problems facing the people of Michigan.”
But Republicans may be playing with fire — it won’t be long before the news media will reinforce the Democrats’ complaints that GOP lawmakers are “do-nothings” and obstructionists, with no ideas of their own. But one idea the Republicans COULD have is “sunshine” and transparency in legislative ethics (the financial disclosure that Proposal 1 called for). Republicans actually showed more support for this in last year’s debate over how far the Legislature needed to go in fleshing out Proposal 1 statutorily than did Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and most House Democrats. Ironically, it was the ‘progressive’ wing of the House Democratic caucus that seemed to be on the same page with the Republicans.
So, if House Republicans push campaign finance and political disclosure, which is what polls show matter most to Michiganders compared with the Democrats’ ‘agenda,’ the news media might actually side with them and the GOP could come out surprise winners in this confrontation.
Are Republicans likely to figure that out? In a word, no.
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Leanne says
Regarding James Craig, there are no surprises with the non-endorsement as police chiefs in 2022 endorsed Ralph Rebandt – a pastor – for governor rather than Mr. Craig.
What your article does not mention is that Mike Rogers was a career FBI agent – and that connection endeared him to the police chiefs association.
In early 2014, Craig made national news when he stated publicly that more armed citizens would reduce the crime rate. This placed him at odds with most of the law enforcement community. He also openly embraced controversial facial recognition technology that many members of law enforcement have decried as unreliable.
Craig also distinguished himself for his outspoken position that the death of George Floyd constituted murder – this position dovetailed with many in Detroit – but may not have endeared him to police administration leaders.
There is no question that Mr. Craig has taken controversial positions while a leader in law enforcement, but this does not mean he is “incompetent”. The polls show that he is leading Elissa Slotkin for the U.S. Senate seat and is polling better than Mike Rogers.
Manuela Garza says
A problem that James Craig may have is those accusing him of being a moderate Democrat – those accusations dogged William Lucas when he switched parties in 1986 and ran as a GOP nominee against Jim Blanchard. Blanchard walloped Lucas in the out-state vote that is traditionally conservative Republican.
Royal says
Thanks for another great TBR, Bill,
wrt Q#1: So once again we see that the Devos family can have the MIGOP if they want to buy it. I don’t see that happening . . . they’ve been scared off by the SE MIGOP time and again who refused to support them. But since the passing of L Brooks, there really isn’t any such thing as SE MIGOP, so, why not take a shot?
Why? ‘Cause pathologically they appear to love to let their allies twist rather than make peace with SE MI republicans for some reason. We’ll see if history repeats. In the meantime, any contribs to MIGOP is dead $$. Ronna is cuffed by Trump. Not even Mitt controls her. Why would anybody wish her to make MIGOP decisions for them?
wrt Q#2: So, Rogers endorsed Trump. Potentially a first step of a thousand required. I think Craig did as well once. So, did Mitt Romney, if you catch my drift. Elissa Slotkin, here we come.
wrt Q#3: Why would any republican want to stick their neck out to Caes[ar] . . . , er, Whitmer, Benson, Nessel, Peters, Slotkin, DNC media, et al? I think betting odds would be better than 5 to 1 they find themselves doing heavy prison time. Talk about playing with fire. Best that any MIGOP candidate declare their candidacy is just a joke and they really aren’t serious about running. Just there for the easy $$.
Would be pleasing to find a Moses in the bunch though . . .
Keep ’em coming, Bill
John C Stewart says
I have great respect for Leanne‘s comments. . Mike Rogers has come out of the shoot, and he may overcome Peter Meijer. Slotkin hasn’t begin to spend the 20 million she has in her campaign account
As a moderately conservative positive Republican, I was very glad to see that Peter Hoekstra has come on the scene, and I think that Karamo will lose her supporters gradually over this next year. In one year, the party chair will either be Hoekstra or Scott Greenlee . If the Republicans can’t win back a majority in the House of Representatives, then it will be time for wholesale change.
Dave says
“We’re in virgin territory here, because nothing like this debacle has ever happened before.” Well. The Pat Robertson whacked out anti Christian but saying they are Christians wing carried the party over Bush in 1988. The establishment under Engler stepped in and carried the day with the help of the RNC. We will see if anyone has the nerve to step in now. But Mark Grebner was right. Today’s GOPs are crazy…or pretending to be crazy. And that includes Hoekstra.
Mark M Koroi says
Actually, in 1988, the Moral Majority endorsed George H.W. Bush over Pat Robertson – which sharply divided the GOP and led to Bush not only receiving the party nomination, but winning the 1988 general election over Michael Dukakis.
The Moral Majority – which was largely responsible for the GOP victories in 1980,1984 and 1988 – dissolved as an organization before the 1992 election over the infighting that resulted from the perceived abandonment of evangelist Pat Robertson in favor of Bush, who had far less religious credentials than Robertson. That dissolution resulted in GOP losses in 1992 and 1996 and the Republicans were lucky to win close presidential races in 2000 and 2004.
Tim Sullivan says
Nice article, Bill.
QUESTION 1: You’re spot on about the MiGOP leadership mess. Had Karamo found a way to actually raise money, she is not in this mess. Raising $$$ is a key, if not THE key function of a Party Chair. She didn’t. Now I make absolutely no pretense of understanding MiGOP rules, bylaws and the like, and it will be left to the courts to decide that. Well, at least it will be entertaining.
QUESTION 2: Spot on again. Craig may have been a fine police chief, but a resume does not a candidate make. Or at least a successful one.
Two things of note. First, when he was a police chief, he must have pissed off a lot of his former colleagues.
Second, it is a serious question if he can get up to speed. He has not done so after two years.
QUESTION 3: Interesting take.
The GOP can hold out for a while, but the sped-up vacancy elections (curiously held before the unconstitutional districts have to be redrawn) will make this redundant. Other than saying “NO”, it is not sure if the GOP leaders have a plan beyond that. Much like a party chair has to be able to raise $$$, a legislative leader has to be able to make the party’s case in public. And if the members of his/her caucus can’t figure that out over perceptions of alleged “impurity of thought” or whatever burr is under their saddle, they deserve to remain perpetually in minority. Which means the constituents they think they are fighting for will never get anything more than table scraps.
You’re right. The MSM will blame the GOP for nothing getting done and none of their elected leaders seem capable of doing the requisite PR work to take on the media and make their case. This is a self-inflicted wound. If they had a serious plan to actually make Proposal 1 work and give us actual disclosure legislation worthy of the name, it would be a plan to counter the MSM criticism and then put the Democrats on the defensive. Hell, even Nancy Kaffer might be forced to say something sort of nice about the GOP if they actually proposed real financial disclosure legislation. In political science classes (at least those taught in the 1970s), this would have been touted as an excellent plan! But that won’t happen as too many of them fear it for what it might do to them, their donors, or their friends. What’s worse, they look at government as a type of business and this is not the type of information that businesses release. The people are NOT their customers, they are their citizens and bosses. If they want to return to majority status, it would behoove them to remember that.
But for the GOP, it could be worse as this is not the first time something like this has occurred. In Oregon, they have a 2/3 requirement for a quorum in both houses of the state legislature. This was designed to encourage compromise and getting along with one another. It was generally called the “Oregon Way”. If I did this right, here is the link: End of an era? GOP walkout shows political chasm where ‘The Oregon Way’ once meant bipartisan trust | AP News
If I screwed the link up, the article from the AP is entitled “END OF AN ERA? GOP WALKOUT SHOWS POLITICAL CHASM WHERE ‘THE OREGON WAY’ ONCE MEANT BIPARTISAN TRUST”. The story was released May 20, 2023. Then a new Democratic Senate leader took over (replacing a fellow Democrat), basically said compromise be damned, it’s my way or the highway. The GOP took him up on his offer and hit the highway thus preventing the senate from doing anything. This did this off and on over the past few years. Then in 2023, Oregon voters passed Measure 113 that effectively precludes those who engaged in walkouts from seeking re-election, effectively killing the “Oregon Way”. A Federal judge (Clinton appointee Ann Aiken) denied the GOP federal challenge and the case is, I believe, still pending before the Oregon Supreme Court. Eventually, a few GOP senators returned creating a quorum. These folks probably have no political future unless they move west of the mountains, but they probably got kudos from The Oregonian newspaper.
I would not be surprised to see VNP try something like Measure 113 here with the MSM blaming the GOP while simultaneously supporting it.
Bill Rauwerdink says
yawn
John C Stewart says
ROYAL is right. You nailed it. There hasn’t been a SE Michigan Republican Party since L Brooks Patterson died. Shame. 5 Million people (1/2 population of our State) are in the SE Michigan Media Market. I was asked to sit in the “L Brooks seat “ on the CBS Michigan Matters TV Program. Good to do do this year
Young voters -especially WOMEN are NOT voting in significant numbers for Republicans. OBVIOUS REASONS.
I was able to negotiate one-on -one with Betsy DeVos in 2002 and she left me alone, and I was able to serve six years as a State Rep from Plymouth, Northville and Livonia. I did vote with my caucus 98% of the time during my six years as state representative.
I sincerely hope that Bill Ballenger will address this issue of the loss of Republican voters among women and the younger generation in Oakland and Wayne county
Mark Koroi says
I have raised the issue of why and how the Oakland County GOP seems to have imploded from where it was 25 years ago – it controlled the state conventions back then when Patterson ruled the county. The Republicans used to control county government until about 2008 when the shift began occurring to Democratic control in the county.
The answer that has been given is that the GOP has lost the level of grassroots activism in the county and the Democrats have better organized. I actually believe that a better answer is the demographics within the county has changed with more persons of color moving into the county and these new residents tend to gravitate toward the Dems.
Macomb County was controlled by powerful Democratic Party insiders for decades until 1988 when Candice Miller stunned political observers by knocking off Adam Nowakowski, County Treasurer, who held that seat for 28 years until his loss to Miller. County Sheriff Bill Hackel lost his seat in 2000 due to a felony conviction, In 2016. the GOP assumed the seats of County Clerk and County Treasurer by beating Democrat nominees. In 2020, Macomb County Prosecutor Eric Smith resigned and later went to prison – Peter Lucido – a GOP nominee – was elected in 2020 as the first elected Republican prosecutor in the county’s history. In 2020, the Macomb County Board of Commissioners saw the first GOP majority in its history. in 1984, Dems held 21 of the 25 seats on the Macomb County Board of Commissioners.
Macomb County Republicans luuuuuuuuuuuv Donald Trump and his pounding the table on economic protectionism struck a chord with UAW and other union members who saw Macomb County’s economic base devastated in the 1990s by the NAFTA accords negotiated by the Clinton administration. Macomb County has replaced Oakland County as THE political center of GOP politics in Metro Detroit.
Rolling Stone magazine and the New American periodical have done stories studying
the phenomenon of Macomb County Republican party conventions and leadership. They resonate with “God, guns and Trump!” as their rallying cry – cheering on the Second Amendment and the gutting of Roe vs. Wade.
Macomb County has taken a hard right turn toward Christian nationalism.
Neither Oakland nor Wayne Republicans have expressed a similar ideology as Macombers.
Manuela Garza says
The U.S. Senate race is a virtual three-way toss-up.
James Craig is deadlocked with Mike Rogers for the GOP nomination
Both Craig and Rogers are in a statistical dead heat in a projected GOP-Dem race with Elissa Slotkin.
The U.S. Senate Democratic nomination is HERS to lose with Hill Harper being the only serious challenger.
The best thing to happen to the Michigan GOP is obtaining Pete Hoekstra as the new GOP chair. A sane and experienced political leader who is respected in West Michigan.
Leanne says
Pete Hoekstra has limited time to organize funding and other material support to GOP candidates.
We may also have competing state conventions this February!
10x25mm says
All the attacks on Kristina Karamo’s fundraising ‘failures’ somehow fail to mention that Republican fundraising is way down, across the entire country. The Republican National Committee’s fundraising is at its lowest level in more than eight years as megabucks donors shun every element of the party over Donald Trump. The RNC has only $9.1 million cash on hand, its lowest balance since 2015.
This won’t change until the lords of wealth are restored to total control of the Republican Party at all levels. The problem facing those lords of wealth is the Republican rank and file adamantly oppose their agendas.
Leanne says
Bingo!