El-Sayed has clearly gained momentum in the three-way Democratic primary against U.S. Rep. Haley STEVENS (D-Birmingham) and Sen. Mallory MCMORROW (D-Royal Oak).
Earlier in the Senate race, Republicans appeared to view El-Sayed as the Democrat most vulnerable against likely Republican nominee Mike ROGERS. More recently, Republican organizations and Rogers’s campaign have directed increasingly pointed attacks on El-Sayed and his record.
Republicans have also increasingly inserted themselves into the Democratic primary, including a National Republican Senatorial Committee ad that the Haley Stevens campaign says was intended to elevate El-Sayed. Former Senator Debbie Stabenow, who has endorsed Stevens, has decried the GOP’s meddling in the Democrats’ primary campaign, but this is hypocrisy of the highest order. For years, Democrats have tampered in primaries — witness the Adam Schiff campaign in California two years ago, which took out ads boosting the candidacy of Republican Steve Garvey in that state’s “jungle” primary. Why? Because Schiff was trying to ensure that Garvey made the November runoff that Schiff was sure to win in heavily blue California. Schiff wanted to make sure Garvey finished in the Top Two rather than Democrat Katie Porter, who Schiff was worried he might not beat.
Democrats have even gone a step further, and they’re doing it right now. They’re backing “false flag” candidates running as Independents after Democrats have pressured parties in red states such as Nebraska and Montana to eschew nominating any candidate at all and instead bankrolling and staffing the campaigns of alleged “independents” who, if they manage to win in November, will certainly caucus with Democrats in Washington, D.C.
So, what about all this? If El-Sayed can no longer be dismissed as an afterthought, is he a threat to win not only the Aug. 4 Democratic primary but also the general election in November?
Answer 1): He’s a real possibility not only to win the primary, but to beat Rogers. Yes, Republicans initially believed El-Sayed was unlikely to win the primary and would be easier to defeat if he did. But in the six weeks, El-Sayed has obviously come on strong. El-Sayed has outperformed the early expectations surrounding his candidacy.
Note El-Sayed’s reception at the April 19 Michigan Democratic convention, where he drew enthusiastic support while Stevens was booed by portions of the crowd. Subsequent surveys late last month by five different pollsters — Susquehanna, Quantas Insights, Mitchell Research & Communications, Tulchin Research and Peak Insight — all showed El-Sayed leading by an average of five points. That has only reinforced the possibility that El-Sayed could not only capture the Dem nomination but also beat Rogers in November.
As evidence, El-Sayed’s campaign has been touting the Mitchell poll showing him leading Rogers 47% to 42%, while the same survey showed Rogers leading McMorrow 47% to 41% and Stevens 45% to 41%.
The Susquehanna/Quantas/Mitchell/Tulchin/Peak polls can’t be viewed as outliers. Collectively, their findings carry weight.
MIRS newsletter recently quoted political consultant Adrian HEMOND of Grassroots Midwest thusly: “Republicans are engaging El-Sayed because they want Democratic primary voters to begin viewing the race as a choice between El-Sayed and Rogers. They’re trying to behave as if he has already won the primary, because that’s who they want to run against,” Hemond said. “Republicans need this to be a match-up between Mike Rogers and Abdul El-Sayed if they want to maximize their winning chances.”
Hemond pointed to a cease-and-desist letter Rogers’s campaign sent demanding that El-Sayed stop referring to Rogers as a pharmaceutical lobbyist. Rather than representing a serious effort to end the attacks, Hemond said the letter generated media coverage connecting the two candidates.
“Cease-and-desist letters are not a serious tactic to get people to change their behavior, but they are a way to generate earned media and get people talking about the two of you together,” Hemond told MIRS.
MIRS also quoted John SELLEK, CEO of Harbor Strategic, who agreed with Hemond that Republicans’ focus on El-Sayed is designed to improve his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee.
“The national GOP has wanted El-Sayed as the Democratic nominee and is still pushing for it because he will be much easier to define on issues than Stevens,” Sellek said. “You don’t run ads in another party’s primary unless you have a goal.”
Sellek said the first 26 seconds of the NRSC ad could be viewed positively by many of the Democratic primary voters El-Sayed needs. Sellek noted that the ad features U.S. Sen. Bernie SANDERS nearly as prominently as El-Sayed’s current “Chorus” ad.
At the same time, Sellek said the Republican ad is defining El-Sayed for more moderate voters who are unlikely to participate in the Democratic primary but will vote in the general election.
Sellek opines that El-Sayed is attempting to raise his ceiling among voters outside Southeast Michigan through his “Chorus” ad, which repeatedly describes him as a son of Michigan and includes references to football.
Sellek said El-Sayed’s social media appearances dancing to Whitney Houston and playing “Blue’s Clues” also serve as signals to out-state voters as he tries to expand his electorate beyond Southeast Michigan.
“The GOP is just helping him do so,” Sellek said.
MIRS cites AdImpact data that shows El-Sayed’s ad generated approximately 3.8 million impressions through broadcast television and connected TV between June 16 and June 26. His campaign spent $207,517 on the ad during the 11-day period.
Most of the spending was concentrated in the Detroit media market, where the campaign spent $174,621 for approximately 3.35 million impressions. Another $32,718 was spent in the Grand Rapids-Kalamazoo-Battle Creek market, generating nearly 398,000 impressions.
Smaller amounts were directed toward the Flint-Saginaw-Bay City, Lansing, Traverse City-Cadillac, Marquette and Alpena markets.
Meanwhile, candidates and outside groups are pouring tens of millions of dollars into the contest.
MIRS points to AdImpact data covering advertising in the Michigan U.S. Senate race from Jan. 1 through Election Day that shows approximately $90.2 million in spending and reservations, with about $52.9 million on the Democratic side and $37.2 million on the Republican side.
The Senate Leadership Fund, a Republican-aligned outside group, accounts for approximately $25.8 million, while WinSenate spent approximately $17 million and the United Democracy Project spent approximately $9.9 million.
The spending underscores the degree to which outside organizations are already shaping both the primary and anticipated general-election contest.
MIRS concludes that, for now, Republican attacks on El-Sayed can support two conflicting conclusions: 1) That he has become a more credible threat than Republicans anticipated and they’re trying to “soften him up” for November, OR 2) That Republicans remain convinced he is the Democrat they would most like to face.
If it’s the latter, maybe the National Republican Senatorial Committee should keep in mind the old adage, “Be careful what you wish for.”
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Minutes after this dropped, so did Mallory.
So much for the endorsement of the Detroit Free Press. It seems that Mr. Mitchell’s polling was right.
MI AGDana Nessel just endorsed Haley Stevens following the McMorrow withdrawal announcement.
Yeah, Mallory’s statement of her campaign being suspended basically endorsed the respective policies of both Dr. El-Sayed and Haley Stevens.
Being anti-establishment (she refused corporate PAC and AIPAC funding), I believe the McMorrow withdrawal will likely inure some benefit to Dr. El-Sayed in the race.
The Democrat Party should be declared a RICO, and the entire Biden administration prosecuted for treason. El Sayed can’t recognize the Constitution because he’s a Muslim, so any oath he would mouth swearing allegiance to our founding documents would be a lie. This is the greatest country that has ever been in the history of the world, despite what the loony left says. God bless America.
Think Gary Peters cut the legs off of Mallory McMorrow. That was the goal of the Mitchell poll.
First of all, I hope that all the TBR family had a safe, happy and enjoyable Independence Day. America seems to be a rather young 250!
Nice article and OTR appearance, Bill.
Well, as I write this, Ms McMorrow has left the race leaving the US Senate race to El-Sayed and Stevens. If New York and Colorado are indicative of the Democrats voting patterns, Dr. El-Sayed should do well. New York City is NYC, but the Colorado results seem more instructive. Melat Kiros unseated Diana DeGette, a 30-year veteran of the House, and Rep. DeGette was a rather progressive Democrat. It appears that Rep. DeGette’s “sin” was that she was insufficiently anti-Israel. On July 1st, NBC News reported: “KIROS WAS RECENTLY PRESSED BY NBC AFFILIATE KUSA OF DENVER ABOUT HER COMMENTS THAT HAMAS’ ATTACK ON ISRAEL WAS “THE INEVITABLE CONSEQUENCE OF APARTHEID.” IN THE INTERVIEW, SHE WOULDN’T SAY WHETHER A FIREBOMBING ATTACK ON DEMONSTRATORS IN BOULDER, COLORADO, WHO GATHERED TO SUPPORT ISRAELI HOSTAGES WAS ANTISEMITIC.” I believe this is also Rep. Stevens’ “sin”. As to how that will play out in November, I do not know, but antisemitism seems once again to raise its ugly head in both parties now.
As for the last statement in the article, politicians everywhere should always be careful what they wish for. There was a time in California when the Democrats were wishing that Ronald Reagan would run for governor as they thought he was easily beatable. OOPS. Pat Brown screwed the pooch on that one. Regardless of who one’s opponent is, you should never take them lightly. There was a time when poli sci classes taught that. Not sure they do now as it seems too many political consultants seem to have slept through that particular lesson.
Representative Diana DeGette, a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, had received more pro-Israel PAC funding – $1.6 million – than any other member of the Colorado U.S. House delegation.
Melat Kiros beat her by a 53%-40% margin in the primary election. Denver political pundits analyzing the lopsided upset loss concluded from questioning of voters she no longer had been adequately serving her constituent’s interests and was perceived as beholden to PAC donors.
DeGette had voted for billions of dollars of arms shipment to Israel and had previously been filmed yelling at a pro-Palestine Democratic Party delegate in a coffee shop. This exchange was uploaded to Instagram and used as a rallying point for Kiros’ campaign.
That’s the point I was making. The ONLY real difference between DeGette and Kiros is Israel. In what is supposed to be a more competitive Colorado race, the 8 the district, an ideological clone of Kiros, state rep Manny Rutinel obliterated Shannon Bird, a more traditional liberal Democrat. Opposition to Israel seems to be THE issue that decided the vote. And that opposition has become Jew hatred.
A while back on Mark Halperin’s Two-Way show, Ed Rogers (veteran GOP consultant and veteran of the Reagan and Bush the Elder administrations) who wrote (or may still write) op-eds for the Washington Post said that when he was dealing with folks like Rutinel and Kiros, he would describe them as Jew haters and Fred Hiatt, the op-ed director for the Post, would always change it to antisemites. Dr. El-Sayed has been far too close to Hasan Piker, an antisemitic, anti-American Marxist (albeit a wealthy one). It would be the same as Mike Rogers getting close to Candace Owens. History has shown us antisemitism in action, and the results are not pretty.
Today’s Democratic Party is not the party of my grandparents or parents. I seriously doubt that Soapy Williams or Frank Murphy would recognize it. Increasingly, I don’t.
Mike Rogers has been generally mum this election cycle on the issues near and dear to AIPAC, although his vast connections to the U.S. intelligence community and his support of the Patriot Act suggest he likely would have some predilection to Israel’s interests.
If Haley Stevens get the Dem nomination, then we can expect him to move a bit closer to Metro Detroit’s Arab-American and Muslim-American communities to secure the votes that would have gone to El-Sayed – as I think comparatively few would vote for Haley Stevens.
On the other hand, should El-Sayed secure the Democratic nomination on August 4th, 2026, Mr. Rogers will likely become an outspoken supporter of Israel’s interests and woo AIPAC support.
You can bank on it.
The TBR article makes references the so-called “United Democracy Project” and the fact they had spent $9.9 million on the Michigan U.S. Senate race from January 1st through Election Day.
Who is this group?
On July 2, 2026, Jewish Insider published its own article indicating “AIPAC-linked United Democracy project is launching its first negative ad in the Michigan Senate race, targeting Abdul El-Sayed…….”
Did this group’s funding convince Mallory McMorrow to withdraw from the race?
The Associated Press noted today:
“While McMorrow did not elaborate on her decision to exit the race, a person with direct knowledge said the biggest factor was the recent influx of outside spending boosting Stevens. The American-Israel Public Affairs Committee has poured millions into ads supporting Stevens, leaving both McMorrow and El-Sayed struggling to keep pace……………”
The decision of Mallory McMorrow to withdraw from the race was immediately reported this afternoon in the liberal Israeli daily Haaretz.
The August 4, 2026 primary election shall be a test of AIPAC’s control over U.S. Congressional races in Michigan. Michigan U.S. Congress candidates Donovan McKinney, William Lawrence, Aisha Farooqui, Diop Harris, Abdul El-Sayed and Kyle Blomquist are all being endorsed by Track AIPAC, a private watchdog group examining and exposing pro-Israel influence in U.S. elections.
Haley Stevens is not an ideal nominee for Dems. She made the auto industry the cornerstone of her political career – yet let the important UAW endorsement slip away to Dr. El-Sayed. She snapped at a Mackinac island candidate debate moderator reasonably questioning her about how AIPAC influences her policy positions – and later also snapped at a reporter in an interview uploaded to YouTube after he made a similar inquiry about her support of Israel.
Dr. El-Sayed on the other hand is a Rhodes scholar who obtained a medical degree from Columbia University. He has been calm and articulate in interviews.
As a GOP activist, I see El-Sayed as the more credible Dem candidate that has the best chance of beating Mike Rogers this November. I am hoping Stevens gets the nomination and continues to drop the ball.
I love this guy he happens to be 100% right
And so is Bernie .THE corporations should pay their fair share . We should Nationalize 1/2 of
AI and with the peoples profits we should pay to inflate social security and Finance Universal health care !
ANSWER 1) In a word, YES. Trends in motion tend to stay in motion, and it appears the demoncrat party is going full blown Communist. A hint of things to come can be found in New Woke City, who elected Mandummy as Mayor. The recent eruption in Colorado is also a sign. (As was AOC in 2018)
Keep in mind the die was cast in 1972 when the looney tunes got more than they deserved at the Demoncrat National Convention. Frankly, I’m surprised it’s taken this long for the calamity to inbred itself in the party of JFK. (Who not only would not recognize, much less be welcome there today)
But his unstoppable motion stops after August 4th. Then the dynamics change profusely. All of the major candidates of the demoncrat party headed into November are either loose cannons or loose screws. None of this bunch will even remotely resemble moderate choices for the Michigan electorate. The GOP, on the other hand, has candidates who can easily appeal to independent voters. None of their candidates can be perceived as threats to Middle America. The contrast is crystal clear.
(PS. Did anyone ever expect MM to get above single digits in any poll? No surprise she left!)
McMorrow was in a statistical dead heat with Mike Rogers in latest polling.
She was likely the strongest and least controversial candidate the Democrats could field in November against Mike Rogers.
Should Haley Stevens win the primary election, the progressive Democrats in Michigan are not likely to vote for her in November.
Virtually no Arab-American groups are endorsing Haley Stevens. That represents 300,000 Michigan residents. There is likely another 300,000 of Michigan residents who vocally oppose U.S foreign policy in the Middle East – Stevens is disliked by these people as well..
“McMorrow was in a statistical dead heat with Mike Rogers in latest polling.”
As was El-Sayad and Stevens. This is how you know that Quantus (and the other guileful pollsters) cooked their Senate Democratic primary poll(s).
Poll results are transitive (used in the mathematical sense). No way was McMorrow at 8% and El-Sayed at 41%, when in the same polling they are within 1% of Rodgers.
Polling is a deceitful enterprise in Michigan.
McMorrow would be more palatable to independent voters than El-Sayed.
She would also likely draw more Arab-American votes than Mike Rogers in a general election – or head-to-head against Haley Stevens.
El-Sayed can be impugned as a quasi-Marxist and Stevens tarred as a stooge of AIPAC.
The public conduct of Haley Stevens – as Leanne has alluded to – is unacceptable for a credible candidate.
Bill,
Is today’s discussion missing or minimizing the impact of the “El-Sayed dislikes women ” TV ads? They look pretty impressive up here in the boondocks !
If they impact the primary, they will impact the general election as well !
The latest Susquehanna poll shows Dr. El-Sayed doing better with likely female voters than the general pool of polled likely voters.
The AIPAC-linked super-PAC “United Democracy Project” described in the TBR article above as well as Leanne’s comment is expected to try to pummel the reputation of El-Sayed with attack ads
AIPAC has taken full credit for the defeat of Thomas Massie in Kentucky – even though Massie’s attacks on a hugely popular Donald Trump there likely caused more problems for Massie.