Question 1): What jumps out at us from the August 4 results?
Answers): There are a number of them —
* More than half a million more voters cast ballots in the Democratic primary than in the Republican primary — that’s 61.1% of the vote for Dems, only 38.9% for the GOP. Contrast those figures to 2024, when only 40.6% of the vote went to Democrats, 59.4% to the GOP in that year’s August primary. What about 2022? It was an even poorer showing by Democrats — only 33.5% of the votes cast in that year’s primary went to Democrats, 66.5% to Republicans. In other words, roughly three times as many votes (some 1,540,000) were cast in this year’s Democratic primary as in either of the last two cycles. By contrast, about 220,000 fewer voters cast ballots in this year’s Republican primary than in 2022, despite the GOP having a competitive gubernatorial race, with one of the candidates (businessman Perry Johnson) spending at least $30 million. Comparisons between August primaries and what will happen in the November general election are not exact, but they’re instructive. One news outlet, MIRS, calculated that if the turnout for the general is what it was on 8/4, Democrats could produce a 74-36 seat margin in the state House, and 24-14 in the state Senate. It’s unlikely things will turn out that way, but the prospects for Republicans over the next three months are dire.
* The above numbers mean that both Republican gubernatorial nominee John James and U.S. Senate nominee Mike Rogers start as distinct underdogs in their races. For all the talk of Abdul El-Sayed being a “socialist/Communist” Democrat unelectable in a “purple state,” that characterization won’t make any difference if we’re in for a “Blue Wave.”
* Today’s political climate exists primarily because of one factor — antipathy to President Donald Trump, whose job rating/approval numbers are at an all-time low for a sitting president on the eve of an election. No, Trump himself isn’t on the ballot but candidates of his party are, and that’s who the electorate will take their wrath out on. Democrats in particular are highly motivated to turn out in large numbers, but we can expect independents and ticket splitters who vote will also favor Democrats in most instances.
* Every poll taken during the 10 days prior to then election showed El-Sayed would win the Dem Senate nod, but none predicted it would be as close as it turned out to be. Yes, there was fairly large number of undecided voters (10+) in most of these surveys, but either most broke for Stevens or the poll samples were flawed. We’ll have to wait to find out what the Early/Absentee vote totals were before the 8/4 in-person voting on Election Day itself. Did the tens of millions spent on Stevens finally pay off in a late surge for her at the end?
* This was the most expensive primary in Michigan political history, by far. Well over $100 million was spent in the U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races alone, and if you tabulate everything spent on all races by both parties and their candidates, the tab will probably reach $150 million, probably more. Amazingly, the candidates for the top two state offices who were outspent the most (El-Sayed by 12-1 and Perry Johnson by maybe 5-1) both won. That’s never happened before.
- There were the usual surprises, some mild and some shocking.— The results in the 8th CD Republican primary shows more than anything else how far the mighty hath fallen. Trump, who has endorsed scores of candidates over the past decade, suffered his most humiliating defeat right here in Michigan. He had endorsed Amir Haneef Hassan, who had an impressive military background and had provided security for presidential Cabinet secretaries. Hassan was drubbed by an unknown 74-year-old retired GM engineer named Thomas Smith, who had dropped his bid nearly a month ago and endorsed a third candidate although his name remained on the ballot. Smith took 50.3% of the vote in a three-way contest, with Hassan at 33% and the equally-unknown third candidate at 16.3%. Nowhere in America has a Trump-endorsed candidate in a Republican primary failed so spectacularly, ever. Smith won every county in the district — Bay, Genesee, Midland, Saginaw and Tuscola — and received a combined 31,152 votes. Republicans nationally had backed Hassan, who spent over $700,000 while Smith spent virtually nothing before suspending his campaign. That said, this result means virtually nothing — Smith (and Hassan if he had become the nominee) will be crushed by the incumbent, U.S. Rep. Kristen McDonald-Rivet (D-Bay City) in November.***********************************
— A political unknown, Michigan State University assistant professor Rashida HARRISON, stunned the entire mid-Michigan political establishment with a classic stealth campaign, relying on a little-known company called Kismet Marketing, to defeat Ingham County commissioners Mark POLSDOFER and Robert PENA in the open 28th state Senate district covering MSU’s campus and parts of three counties. Polsdofer had been endorsed by outgoing Sen. Sam SINGH (D-East Lansing) to be his successor, announcing his candidacy the morning after Singh made public in early March that he wouldn’t seek reelection this year. Polsdofer was also backed by the Michigan Association for Justice, numerous unions, a battalion of local elected officials and business groups. Yet Harrison narrowly won Ingham County by 314 votes and Shiawassee by 693. MIRS newsletter reported that, with 13 precincts left to fully report, she was up by 514 votes in Clinton County, giving her a margin of 1,521 votes. She is now primed to win the 28th district state Senate seat easily in November.
************************************ — Progressive/Social Democrats had a field day, winning not only the U.S. Senate Democratic primary with El-Sayed, but also with Donavan McKinney, a state representative who knocked off an incumbent Congressman, Shri Thanedar (D-MI 13) in Detroit. Then there was Lansing-area community activist William Lawrence, who bested two more moderate Democrats who parachuted into the 7th CD with huge financial advantages and backing from national Democrats. All of these progressive winners were vastly outspent by their opponents, yet they still won. Lawrence will now take on incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Barrett in a race with national implications.
There is more, much more, that could be reported and interpreted here, but you get the drift.
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Ahoy Bill, nice report. The whole country is focused on Michigan, as we should be, for the shifts toward progressive candidate by the young, and shift away from Trump endorsed candidates as you point out.
I will email you shortly about a Ballenger Zreport of a different kind. Lucy ( born in Harper Hospital Mar 11. 1941) and I hope to see you at our June’27 65th Reunion. The Reunion Committee headed by Wes Johnson, needs a Program Mgr who might wrangle a few top news makers to brief ‘62 at Forbes College. Any ideas? Or should I just nominate you to opine about the impact of Trump’s animus on free and fair elections?
Brian Rosborough ‘62
Concord, MA ( registered Independent)
Morelightllc@ gmail. com
978-394-2401
I think Roger’s has a stronger chance than you give him. Abdul AlSayed will motivate the Republican vote as Trump motivates the Democrats. People can split their ticket. And Roger’s has a stellar resume, nearly identical to Ellissa Slotkin. The difference is the long time Jewish Democrats that may well switch their ticket for the Senate seat. Just my intuition.
Kalshi shows Abdul E-Sayed as a slight favorite.
The “Democrats for Mike Rogers” X account now has 8,300 followers after being up only three days. AIPAC has publicly announced it shall oppose the El-Sayed candidacy in the general election.
Abdul El-Sayed is on a roll and this will likely the most expensive and contested electoral race in history of Michigan politics. Mike Rogers could possibly win if he runs a good campaign – which he failed to do in 2024.
Will Lawrence, Abdul El-Sayed, and Donavan McKinney did very well by correctly pointing out America’s failed foreign policies in Israel and the Iran War and how the poor and middle class are being squeezed by big business and insurance companies.
They offered reasonable and compassionate solutions. The millions in attack ads did not sway voters. They were revered by young voters.
Campaign donors from big business and AIPAC no longer drive elections – voter common sense does.
If Tom Barrett and Mike Rogers cannot validly identify voter issues and come up with solutions that are cogent and feasible they both shall lose – as they have lost in prior elections. McKinney will be a member of Congress in Jan. of 2027.
El-Sayed had an campaign organizational presence of young people outstate that worked hard and scored him impressive vote totals over Haley Stevens in the primary. Those are areas he needs to do well in in November.
Stevens in a post-primary election CNN interview – while nominally endorsing El-Sayed, urged Michigan Jewish-American Democratic voters to make a “personal and private decision” whom to vote for in November in the U.S. Senate race.
It is possible that 2026 will be the biggest electoral disaster for Michigan Republicans since 2008. We could conceivably have Eli Savit as Michigan Attorney General.
Imagine having to go to your local emergency room for urgent care and there are three hundred people ahead of you in line for hangnails, stomach aches, headaches, opioid withdrawals and psychological problems. This is Medicare for all.
Medicaid for All is what it will look like.
Interesting article, Bill, and a nice appearance on Off The Record. And a nice bit on the number of votes that McMorrow and Cox got despite dropping out of their respective races. As for the dropout candidatess, even with early voting, votes cast for them early in the process should still remain cast for them. If it pisses off those whose votes are now “lost”, so be it. They won’t vote for them again should they ever seek another office. About Democracy, sometimes people need to learn that Mencken was right. Convenience has its costs.
Just a few observations from a retired state employee this week.
Money, apparently, is not everything. Though in the general election, if the GOP’s donor class stays home despite routing the Trumpians from the ballot box (and yes, the GOP folks reference his name, but their policies are far more compatible with the GOP establishment’s than they are anything populist), then maybe the GOP faithful should stop functioning as their lackeys. If the far left takes over the Democratic Party and actually achieves power, the things the donor class cares about – their money, their profits, deregulation and other stuff sundry stuff – is flushed straight down the toilet. And they will probably deserve it.
Gretchen Whitmer was sort of missing in action. I can understand some reluctance to endorse in the US Senate race – she did not want to choose between Stevens and McMorrow – but to not endorse Benson against Swanson strikes me as weird. She had to have some hand in getting Gilchrist to drop out, which means that an endorsement of Benson should have followed BEFORE the vote. She did eventually endorsed Stevens vs. El-Sayed (and that may have resulted in the closer than expected outcome), but that indicates she could have had a larger impact had she done this sooner. If she was saving political capital, methinks she screwed up.
Donavan McKinney finally accomplished what Detroit Democrats have wanted for a very long time, a black Democrat representing Detroit. They have mightily offended that Detroit has been represented by an Indian-American and Palestinian-American. It seems they’ve given up trying to replace Rep. Tlaib and concentrated their efforts on retiring Rep Thanadar. This time they won! They found a candidate, unlike Mr. Hollier last time around, who had legitimate signatures on his nominating petitions. And clearing the deck for McKinney helped immeasurably as his positions did not differ in any significant way from Rep. Thanadar.
As for Mr. Lawrence, here in metro Detroit, campaign ads for his two opponents were a staple on YouTube. I would assume the same would be true for the Lansing area. I must admit, I had – and have – no idea who William Lawrence is, so it should be a “fun” campaign in the Lansing area.
I am similarly unaware of Prof. Harrison or her two opponents – not my area of residence – so I do not know if the margin of victory was based on her gender (only woman running) or a high turnout from the MSU student body. Maybe Tim Skubick can get you and other pundits down for a breakdown on all this stuff where you can get into the nitty-gritty of the elections.
Like practically everyone else, I am unaware of who Mr. Smith is, but Ms Rivet must be happy.
James and Benson should be fun, as long as James hits on his background. And all he needs it to look back at Keith Owens column in the July 14, 2026, Detroit Free Press. As is my wont, I will capitalize the direct quotes: “COX ACTUALLY TRIED TO PLAY THE WHITE WORKING CLASS CARD AGAINST JAMES, TALKING ABOUT HIS HUMBLE ORIGINS AS THE SON OF A CARPENTER (HIS FATHER) AND A MAID (HIS MOTHER), AND HOW HE COULD BETTER IDENTIFY WITH THE STRUGGLES OF ORDINARY MICHIGANDERS THAN SOMEONE LIKE JAMES WHOM HE CALLED A “NEPO BABY” AND A “TRUST FUND BABY.”
YES. REALLY. HE SAID THAT. LET’S GO TO THE TAPE:
“I’M THE SON OF A UNION CARPENTER,” SAID COX TO JAMES. “I UNDERSTAND WHAT OUTSOURCING HAS DONE TO MICHIGAN OVER THE PAST THREE DECADES, IT IS DECIMATED. AND YOU CAN SMILE ABOUT THAT BECAUSE YOU’RE THE SON OF A CEO. THAT’S WHY YOU SMILE ABOUT PEOPLE LOSING THEIR JOBS. I’M NOT. I’M HERE TO STAND UP FOR THOSE WHO CAN’T STAND UP FOR THEMSELVES. AND YOU CAN TALK SOME RAP. BUT THAT’S TOTAL NONSENSE.”
AND THAT RIGHT THERE OPENED THE DOOR WIDE FOR JAMES TO SLAP COX ABOUT AS HARD AS WILL SMITH DID TO CHRIS ROCK. LET’S LISTEN TO JAMES’ LIVELY RESPONSE, SHALL WE?
“I AM THE SON OF A CEO WHO’S A TRUCK DRIVER. HIS FATHER WAS A MASON. HIS FATHER WAS A SHARECROPPER. HIS FATHER WAS A SLAVE. HOW DARE YOU SHAME THE STEPS IT TAKES TO COME UP FROM MISSISSIPPI AND BUILD A LIFE OF PROSPERITY FOR A FAMILY LIKE MINE? WE’VE BEEN DEDICATING OUR LIVES TO SERVICE FOR PEOPLE LIKE YOU.”
AS WE USED TO SAY, BACK IN THE DAY, “OH SNAP.”
Couple that with his service in the US Army – including nomination to West Point – and he can start to control the narrative in trying to restore opportunity to Michiganders. He can argue that his family is the American Dream, using the opportunity America gives all – including descendants of slaves – and building on what previous generations have done to make a better life for you and your family. It can be a powerful message – if he is smart enough to use it.
The US Senate race will be fun. There were votes for Stevens that were votes against El-Sayed for his stance on Israel and other thing. If they cross over to Rogers, it’ll help. If they stay on the sidelines and not vote at all, it will hurt Benson. These are potentially a decent sized number of voters who may seem politically homeless, like Bill Maher. I am not sure if our pollsters can poll them correctly, but it might be worth their while. Film at 11.
Regardless, the Ballenger Report will be there to keep us informed.
I spoke with an elected progressive Democrat from Ann Arbor who said that DSA members there were euphoric over the August 4th primary election results in Michigan and the only regret they had was not targeting Congresswoman Kirsten McDonald Rivet with a DSA primary opponent. In hindsight they feel she could have been beaten. Rivet had accepted $372,000.00 in pro-Israel PAC campaign funding.
DSA wing of the Michigan Democratic Party now feels that a political realignment has occurred and that they have effective control over the state party organization at the both the convention and grassroots levels – the era of the pro-business, pro-Israel Democratic candidate is effectively over – as evidenced by the primary losses of Haley Stevens, Shri Thanedar, and the moderate primary opponents of Will Lawrence in the Seventh U.S. Congressional District. A younger and more militant state Democratic Party now exists in Michigan and is the controlling force in elections.
Thanks…..Great report