Question 1): U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens, who as everyone knows is a candidate for the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate, has taken to calling herself a “geek” in the closing days of her campaign. This past week, she told supporters: “There’s those cool kids on the Internet doing the cool kid chatter. Some of ’em might be the coastal elites, making fun of how I talk … But, let’s be real. They’re making fun of Michigan. They’re thinking they’re better than us. What they don’t know is that I’m your voice. And their jokes, and their criticism, only make me fight harder.”
So, has Stevens managed to flip the script on critiques about her appearance and mannerisms that have been ridiculed in social media? Can she use her new self-described persona to reconnect with voters in a positive way before August 4?
Answer 1): Hard to see how, at this late date. Up to half the Democratic electorate has cast ballots by this time, and Stevens appears to be lagging behind Abdul El-Sayed, possibly by double digits, in the polls. Strangely, she reminds us of Republican Rick Snyder’s “One Tough Nerd” campaign for governor back in 2010, but Snyder’s slogan was disarming in a good way (for him). After his own self-description, it was difficult for his opponents to use the perceived epithet against him. By contrast, Stevens is resorting to her “geek” appellation at the end, seemingly in desperation. It’s true, Stevens IS a geek, a female nerd, always has been. Whatever her prowess has been as chief of staff for Barack Obama’s Auto Rescue task force, or her work on the CHIPS act in Congress, she comes across everywhere as slightly strange-looking, awkward, and uncomfortable. She’s the farthest thing from a charismatic retail politician, which, unfortunately for her, El-Sayed is in spades.
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Question 2): Is the cake already baked in the state’s U.S. Senate Democratic primary race, or could last-minute messaging or some other development change the result?
Answer 2): If this election is close, any “final days” change of any sort could tip the balance, but it’s unlikely. It depends if Election Day turnout turns out to be stronger than absentee and early voting turnout. If that were to be the case, it’s possible that this race or some other races could flip, but recently most Democrats vote absentee and vote early. On the progressive wing especially, voters know who they are going to vote for, if they haven’t already, and it’s not for Stevens. The energy and momentum and frustration of the Democratic base is embodied in El-Sayed. The Stevens narrative has been reaffirmed by moderate Establishment forces rushing in to defend her (think Schumer, Granholm, Stabenow, Peters, and Whitmer) and the tens of millions of dollars that are coming with them. However, those dollars may not be as useful as they were in prior elections in this environment. Make no mistake about it: If Stevens loses to El-Sayed, it will be unprecedented and historic — never has a candidate been outspent by an opponent 12-1 and still managed to win, at least not in Michigan. Ironically, the same thing may happen at the same time in the Republican gubernatorial primary — Perry Johnson may not outspend John James by 12-1, but the funding gap will still be huge.
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Question 3): What impact will Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s late endorsement of Stevens have in the U.S. Senate Democratic primary?
Answer 3): Little or none. Pollsters and the news media have always overestimated Whitmer’s popularity compared with her predecessors, and near the end of her tenure she’s weaker with the Democratic base than she was in her COVID heyday doing battle with Donald Trump. She’s done a lot to alienate the Democratic base with her cozying up to Trump in the last two years and, most recently, vetoing the nine bills from 2024 her party fought so hard to get signed into law. That could solidify the Establishment-skeptic Democrats, who seem to be the majority of their party right now. Whitmer’s belated endorsement of Stevens is a show of solidarity with the old guard against the new. She’s jumping on the train on her way out of town.
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Thanks for this excellent post – it’s spot on.
Abdul El-Sayed has pulled ahead and shall be the first Muslim nominated to a Democratic Party U.S. Senate.
One of the most significant phenomenon about this race is the futility of AIPAC and other pro-Israel PACs in Michigan – their tactics were exposed and discredited. Their funding placed El-Sayed’s face all over the media in attack ads that gave him greater exposure.
Another is the belated endorsements of Governor Whitmer, Gary Peters and Dana Nessel – Haley Stevens collapsed in polling AFTER these weighty endorsements were announced. It shows even rank-and-file Democrats do not care about these politicians’ endorsements.
The establishment wing of the Michigan Democratic Party has collapsed. They will have to turn to Mike Rogers to keep El-Sayed from assuming the U.S. Senate seat held by Gary.Peters.
It’s now down to whether people will vote the party or the person, both in the primary and the mid-term election.