Question 1): Everybody realizes by this time that Republicans took a "thumping" (in Bill Clinton's words, when it happened to his Democratic Party in 1994) or a "shellacking" (Barack Obama in 2010), both nationally and in Michigan in the Nov. 3 general election. But, in historical terms, how bad was it, really?
Answer 1): Terrible, but how terrible depends on how you assess electoral catastrophes. Is a debacle such as this year’s measured only by the magnitude of the number of races lost? Or should we consider instead where the party finds itself in terms of the number of top public offices it still holds after the dust has settled?
If the former, there have been worse years, most recently in 2008. That year, in the wake of Obama’s blowout presidential victory at the top of the ticket., Republicans found themselves in a 67-43 minority in the state House of Representatives, larger than the 63-47 deficit they find themselves in going into 2027-28. However, they still controlled the state Senate, and they still had their Attorney General (Mike Cox) and Secretary of State (Terri Lynn Land). Then there was 1964 (the LBJ landslide win over Barry Goldwater), when Republicans lost control of the Legislature for the first time since the late 1930s and found themselves in a 73-37 D/R hole in the state House and a 23-15 D/R abyss in the state Senate. They also lost half a dozen U.S. House seats, giving Democrats control of 2/3 of the Congressional delegation. Democrats also re-elected their Attorney General (Frank Kelley) and Secretary of State (James Hare) and swept all the education board seats elected on the statewide ballot. Yet, the GOP still had a re-elected Governor George Romney and his Lieutenant Governor, Bill Milliken.
By contrast, after this year’s election, the party has virtually nothing. Republicans find themselves in a weaker state than at any time since — believe it or not — 1854, when, based on the 1852 election, the Democrats controlled all state offices, both U.S. Senate seats, and most of the Congressional delegation. How could that happen? Quite simply, because the Republican Party wasn’t invented until that same year (Under the Oaks) in Jackson. When they put up their first slate of candidates in November of that year, they swept the board and have never looked back — until this year. In that respect, this year’s election must be the worst ever for Michigan Republicans. Yes, there were other bad years for Republicans — 1932 (the FDR landslide), 1936 (his re-election to a second term), and 1974 (Watergate), but after the votes were counted the Michigan GOP had something it could boast about — a governor, a U.S. Senator, most of the Members of Congress, control of at least one house of the Legislature, or something else.
Today, however, Republicans find themselves virtually wiped out. Democrats have their coveted Trifecta (the Governor and both chambers of the Legislature, by hefty margins), the Attorney General (Eli Savit), Secretary of State (Garlin Gilchrist), the Supreme Court by a lopsided 6-1 margin, all the statewide education boards by margins of 6-2 (and maybe 7-1 in the case of MSU), both U.S. Senators, and the largest deficit in the U.S. House delegation (9-4) since the 19th Century (1884 was the last time there were only four GOP members of the U.S. House delegation).
How does the Michigan GOP recover? Mike Rogers is now a two-time statewide loser. John James is a three-time loser and is undoubtedly finished as an electable candidate for major office. The party has no visible “farm system” — some obvious talent that could quickly jump up to try to reclaim their lost offices. Even if it did, it will take a while — there are no statewide offices or U.S. Senate seat up for grabs in 2028. Republicans will have to wait till 2030 at the earliest.
The damage Donald J. Trump has done to the Republican Party brand should now be obvious to even the most rabid of his MAGA supporters. As the early 20th Century critic H.L. Mencken once wrote: “As democracy is perfected, the office of the president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. We move towards a lofty ideal. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart’s desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”
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In a sidebar, TBR publisher Bill Ballenger is on record as predicting Democrats would achieve a U.S. House majority of 247-188 — a far healthier margin than all the national pollsters and pundits. Even that prediction wasn’t high enough — when all the ballots are finally counted, Democrats may be up to 257 or 260.
(With this article, TBR will take a post-election break)
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Bill Ballenger Et Al- ISSUES, ISSUES, ISSUES. The Women’s vote-LEAVE REPRODUCTIVE RIGHTS ALONE. Support background Checks in order to purchase a gun-doesn’t impact hunters at all. Support Gay Rights-LGBTQ.
Become ENLIGHTENED–one of Gov. Milliken’s favorite words.
STOP BAD-MOUTHING PUBLIC EDUCATION.—ESPECIALLY TEACHERS.
REPUBLICANS=FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY..
The above are a short List of LITMUS TESTS TO WIN.!
I WISH I WAS 57 YEARS OLD.
I’d vote for you! (Unless Beth ran against you, that is.)
Bravo HL Mencken. Is this the end of the booboisee (sp.?), at long last?
This total annihilation of Trump and his candidates was totally predictable, not to mention deserved. The only remaining question is whether the Democratic Party can dig down and find some adults to run it….or will they spend the next two years trying to impeach Trump and drag us further into the rat hole?
At least we gained Haley Stevens as a GOP loyalist.
The GOP lost due to $5 per gallon gasoline prices caused the Iran War – which was caused by the Likud Party in Israel.
$43 billion wasted in a war that achieved nothing – no regime change, no agreement on uranium enrichment.
We now have a progressive Democratic governor in Texas of all places. She campaigned on a platform of Boycott Divestment Sanctions to pressure Israel are to end human rights violations. The Texas House is now majority Democratic and Paxton lost his U.S. Senate by 13 points.
Kansas has now flipped to red – and Alaska. These were the GOP’s most powerful stronghold states for decades.
It will be interesting to see if the new Democratic majority in Congress will lead on a proposal to “fix” Social Security or if they will kick this can down the road and avoid any accountability on this important issue.
In Michigan, Governor-Elect Benson has stated that she will not increase taxes on the middle class, but that she is also looking for opportunities to create new streams of tax revenue. It will be interesting to watch how she will try to achieve a balance between these stated goals.
Benson has also stated that she would like to create a new state tax on Short-term Rentals (STR’s). If she settles on the approach proffered by State Representative Joey Andrews, it will create a new tax, a new state bureaucracy, but not address any of the other important issues related to STR’s. Mission accomplished?
It will also be interesting to see how our new state leadership balances the desire of “local control” by local elected officials with State control on important issues like STR’s, wind farms, solar farms and data centers.