Question 1): An abundance of polls over the past two weeks with slightly differing results gives us a glimpse into where the two key races for Michigan Governor and the U.S. Senate stand at this point.
For example, a new MIRS/Mitchell Research poll shows Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn BENSON holding a double-digit lead over the leading Republican candidates for governor if the general election were held today. As for Michigan’s open U.S. Senate seat, former Republican Congressman Mike ROGERS narrowly leads all three top Democratic contenders.
The statewide survey of 607 likely voters, conducted May 1-7, found Benson leading Republican businessman Perry JOHNSON 42%-32% in a hypothetical general election. The numbers also show Benson up on former Attorney General Mike COX by 41%-30% and U.S. Rep. John JAMES (R-MI 10) by 42%-30%. The poll also included independent candidate Mike DUGGAN. Duggan received between 13% and 14% support in each scenario.
Pollster Steve MITCHELL says that all three Republicans were “essentially doing the same” against Benson, with only small differences in party support separating the matchups.
In another survey of 405 likely Democratic primary voters taken by Mitchell during the same dates, progressive U.S. Senate candidate Abdul EL-SAYED is opening a sizable lead in Michigan’s Democratic primary. The survey shows El-Sayed at 27% support, ahead of U.S. Rep. Haley STEVENS (D-Birmingham) at 18%, and state Sen. Mallory MCMORROW (D-Royal Oak) at 17%. Another 38% of voters remained undecided.
In still another Mitchell finding, Secretary of State Jocelyn BENSON holds a dominant advantage in the race for the Democratic nomination to be determined August 4. The Mitchell poll has Benson posting overwhelming support at 62%, compared with only 8% for Genesee County Sheriff Chris SWANSON. 30% of voters said they were undecided.
However, a Glengariff Group survey by pollster Richard Czuba taken about 10 days earlier than Mitchell’s shows a different result in the race for the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate. Glengariff found Haley Stevens opening a lead over her rivals Abdul El-Sayed and Mallory McMorrow.
Glengariff and Mitchell use different methodology in conducting their polls, but both are regarded as among Michigan’s (or outsiders’) most reputable.
Glengariff’s survey showed that 36.0% of likely Democratic primary voters remain undecided in the U.S. Senate race, but Haley Stevens holds a very narrow lead on Abdul El-Sayed, essentially showing a statistical toss-up, with McMorrow trailing behind the other two. Glengariff found 24.9% of those sampled are for Haley Stevens; 22.9% for Abdul El-Sayed; and 16.0% backing Mallory McMorrow.
In response to another potential three-way matchup, this time in the Nov. 3 general election for Governor, about 34% of voters surveyed said they supported Benson, the current Secretary of State; 29% said they backed Republican U.S. Rep. John James; and 23% said they preferred Duggan, the former mayor of Detroit who’s running as an independent. About 14% were undecided. This survey was commissioned by the Detroit Regional Chamber of Commerce, which has already endorsed Duggan. Glengariff conducted the poll of 600 likely Michigan voters who were asked questions over the phone from April 28 through May 1.
So, what does all this tell us now?
Answer 1): 1): There are really six different contests we’re talking about — 1) The Democratic nomination for Governor; 2) The Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate; 3) The Republican nomination for Governor; 4) The Republican nomination for U.S. Senate; and 5) The Nov. 3 general election for Governor between the Democratic nominee, the Republican nominee, and Independent Mike Duggan; and 6) The 11/3 general election for U.S. Senate between the Democratic and Republican nominees.
Two of these are effectively decided already — Jocelyn Benson will be the Democratic nominee for Governor, and Mike Rogers will be the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate. They will both win their Aug. 4 primaries in what in sports parlance are called “walkovers.”
However, the other four races are up for grabs. John James remains the solid frontrunner for the GOP gubernatorial nod despite a massive media ad blitz over the past three months by multi-millionaire businessman Perry Johnson. Johnson has narrowed what was originally a huge James advantage, but Johnson’s support seems to have plateaued in the low 20%s. Mike Cox, who can also self-fund to a certain extent, has closed the gap between himself and the two frontrunners, and Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt trails well behind. With some 10 weeks to go before the 8/4 primary, any of these except Nesbitt could win, but it may be a hollow victory if the anti-Trump Blue Wave comes crashing down in November, which seems likely.
The race for the Democratic U.S. Senate nomination is the tightest of all, and it may come down to turnout on August 4. Who’s voting? Who isn’t? El-Sayed’s support among progressives is rooted in younger voters (manifested in the Mitchell poll), but they have a poor record of actually voting. Stevens draws strength from older voters (reflected in the Glengariff survey), who are far more likely to show up at the polls (and in early voting) than younger age cohorts. Stevens is also the beneficiary of a “dark money” SuperPAC that will spend up to $6 million boosting her between now and June 3. It’s doubtful McMorrow can ever match that, but she’s positioned herself as a sort of “populist progressive” to the right of El-Sayed and the left of Stevens and has been holding her own in the polls. Rogers and the GOP are hoping for an El-Sayed primary victory on the grounds that he’s way too extreme to do well with the general electorate, but that may not matter if it’s a huge anti-Republican year like 2006, 2008, or 1974.
In the general election for Governor, Glengariff’s Czuba notes that, in today’s polarized political environment, voters tend to “retreat to their corners” and hunker down with their traditional allegiances. That may explain why Duggan’s independent candidacy has at least temporarily stalled out, and he lags well behind Benson and either James or Johnson in the polls. That may not change between now and November.
For the U.S. Senate, Rogers enjoys narrow leads over any of the three Democrats in all polling at this point, but there are many “undecideds” and, again, if it’s a Blue Wave year, he could easily be dragged down by the undertow. It may all come down to how insulated Michigan is from what’s happening at the national level. Will Michigan voters actually focus just on who the candidates are in front of them on the ballot, or will they be swayed by a national anti-GOP fervor and just vote straight ticket to wipe them all out?
Yes, anything can happen, but history tells us that a wave election, for one party or the other, is likely to dictate the 11/3 results not just in the top races, but all the way down the ballot.
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Check out Charlie LeDuff”s You Tube channel, “No BS News”. Much information can be had. I haven’t heard anything about Traci Kornak in a long time. Is there a clamp on it? Whitmer’s Arab pal is in hot water, will that go away? Just a little problem with the numbers, nothing to see here, maybe? Huh? Mc Morrow hates Michigan and the rubes who inhabit it, and no one cares. The Muslim candidate should be asked if the Constitution of the United States is superior to the Koran and Sharia Law in this country. That’ll never happen! At any rate, the dismal slate that the Democrats are presenting is the worst in history. Benson was on the board of the SPLC during a very suspicious time, and not much has been said about that, either. The memory hole is bottomless. Have a wonderful day today!
The fact Jocelyn Benson leads by such a large margin in polling should be disturbing to Republican leadership and is a testament to John James’ failure to reasonably campaign.
GOP insiders have privately chafed at his campaign management.
Nothing that being on the SPLC board can do but stir up a little blatant racism. The group is not a terrorist organization anymore than the Oath Keepers are patriots.
UNDECIDED and INDEPENDENTS shall decide and their candidates shall WIN !
As a Milliken-Republican, and several incumbents are starting to say “I’m (they) are moderately-conservative”, I look forward to my TBR friends, Jack Lessenberry and Leanne, to provide insight and enlighten us with your reasoned opinions. I really mean that.
Thank you for this excellent analysis!
Nice article, Bill. Just a few comments tonight.
As for the 2026 general election, it will be fun to watch, and entertaining as well, which is a good sign for politics.
You’re right on Benson and Rogers barring a criminal indictment leveled against them. Benson has some performance in office issues, but those will play out over the general election, regardless of who wins the GOP nomination to run against her. And how much money and/or support Duggan has as an independent candidate. And whether Benson’s relationship with the SPLC will hurt her or not, as Whuffagowie suggests it might, remains to be seen. But that will require someone other than Charlie LeDuff to report on it. As I like to say, film at 11.
DEMOCRATIC US SENATE PRIMARY
The Democratic US Senate primary should be fun. Haley Stevens was roundly booed at the Democratic Convention mostly over her support for Israel. State Rep. Noah Arpit of West Bloomfield was seriously displeased with such treatment. Whether this kerfuffle help Stevens or not, remains to be seen.
On the other hand, Mallory McMorrow has had problems paying her property taxes and water bill on time; may have been a resident of Michigan but voted in California; and has been less than kind to some of the folks she wishes to represent in the US Senate. Not exactly something you would like to be an issue in a general election.
As for Dr. El-Sayed, he’s graduated from medical school but never practiced medicine, per se, but went into what can best be described as a type of administrative medicine. And then there is his closeness to Hasan Piker, a self-described Marxist (who happens to be quite wealthy) who has made numerous statements that reasonable people could describe as anti-American and antisemitic. Whether that hurts him in the Democratic primary remains to be seen. It seems this is NOT the party of Carl Levin or Don Reigle anymore. The general election will also be fun to watch.
GOP GUBERNATORIAL PRIMARY
Again, this should be fun. The big question is whether John James phoning it in (for the most part) for the primary and saving his ammo for the general election was a good idea or not. Whether Perry Johnson’s money or Mike Cox’s campaigning will beat or cripple James remains to be seen.
The general election will be fun. Whether it is a wave election or not depends on how Iran turns out. The 1974 blow out was a two-part thing, not just disgust over Watergate, but the extremely successful gerrymandering the Democrats did after a very good 1970 set of election results, including gaining control of the Michigan Supreme Court by ousting two GOP nominated incumbents. For those who have forgotten how good those Democratic gerrymanders were, in 1972, Richard Nixon received a smidgen more than 60% of the total vote, swept the entire electoral college except for Massachusetts and DC; the GOP won five US Senate seats (and this was after a very good GOP year in 1966); but managed to lose four seats in the US House.
Much will depend how Iran turns out. Trump has done a rather miserable job explaining it. And he must seriously upgrade his explanations (one should not express foreign policy on Twitter, X or Truth Social, nor get into unnecessary fights with the Pope).
The only reason to be there is that the incumbent government of Iran is run by religious fanatics (Twelvers) who are looking to bring about a Shia Islam version of Armageddon that will result in the hidden imam rising and leading the forces of Islam against their version of the anti-Christ. There is a reason they call us “The Great Satan”. That’s why they will not bargain over their nuclear program, ballistic missile program, or funding external terrorist organizations. They are not motivated by money, but by faith. Parts of the IRGC may be, but not the leadership. Treating Iran as a problem that economic issue that will get the results you want is wrong. And Trump has to let the American people know that. We have dealt with folks like this in the past, Imperial Japan. And that was solved when we convinced the Japanese that we can kill all them. And would do so. And Hirohito said it was time to quit. Ryan McBeth has gone into this subject matter, and I would suggest you look up his YouTube channel.
I would like to end on a positive note, but the Tigers’ offense has been, well, offensive and impotent. Well, GO PISTONS!!!!
The Iran war has been as big as a policy failure as Vietnam. No regime change in Tehran as envisioned nor any concrete victories in ensuring Iran has no enriched uranium.
On the other hand, ultraorthodox political parties in Israel are causing the Likud Party coalition to collapse and early elections to be held in summer of 2026 due to the Likud opposition to Haredi military draft exemptions. So the Iran war DID likely contribute to regime change of U.S. ally Israel and polling indicates the Likud coalition likely will lose 11 seats and their majority in the Knesset by this fall.
Gasoline prices are going to harm election bids of Republican candidates everywhere. Expect Tom Barrett to possibly lose his seat – and the GOP seat held by John James in the 10th District. Polling by Economist magazine suggests that only 34% of Americans support the Iran war, which has cost $29 billion so far to U.S. taxpayers.
‘The Iran war has been as big as a policy failure as Vietnam.’
Puh-leeeease! How old are you? Sorry, can’t ask that of a lady (which you are), so, how ’bout, which slogan did you like best? “Make Love, Not War”, or, “War on Poverty – Not on People”?
— 2.5 to 3.8 million total deaths in Vietnam (Vietnam, US and allied, not including Chinese and Russian). 58,220 US dead of 150,000 casualties. S Korea lost over 4,000 dead, Australia over 500, Thailand over 350 and New Zealand about 36. In Iran, so far, the US has incurred 15 deaths, mostly due to accidents, 538 wounded. Iran has suffered over 1,800 dead including 48 senior officials, and ~4,200 wounded. Civilian casualties are estimated over 42,000 mostly government inflicted. It is hard to estimate Israeli casualties due to the Hamas, Houthi and Hezbollah conflicts. Let’s just say fighting for one’s life is a life hazard in Israel.
— Vietnam was started by the Gulf of Tonkin incident which was a ‘Trump-ed’ up excuse. The Iran conflict, from most sane Americans, is motivated by an urge to avert Shia Islam’s version of Armageddon.
— Vietnam had no stated goals other than Gen Westmoreland’s ‘your body count greater than our body count’ policy. Iran has several hard to achieve but clearly stated policies. Many, if not most, goals are arguably complete. The rest are progressively close to completion with plans to complete known and in place (if not explained to leaky boat sieves, MSM and Congress).
— Vietnam lasted 19 years and 6 months. Iran has taken 11 weeks and 2 days so far.
Please. Sensational hyperbole just isn’t called for here. Explain the facts and keep the perspective.
Leanne, there is no doubt that Trump has not adequately explained the reason for going into war. There is a laundry list of things that Iran and its proxies have done to us over the past 47 years, including seizing an embassy (which under the international law so many of our “allies” worship is an act of war). He needs to explain the reason clearly and without using social media like a 12-year old ADHD patient who skipped his Ritalin.
The bottom line is that Iran refuses to stop its nuclear program, has no intention of giving up jts ballistic missile program, not stopping aid to entities like Hamas, Hezbollah and the Huthis. This means it is only a matter of when, not if, Iran develops nukes. They have already shown an enthusiastic willingness to gun down their own people by the thousands, trying to destroy desalinization facilities of their Arab neighbors and seem to be dumping some oil into the Persian Gulf as they know shutting down their oil wells means they are off-line for a long while. Oil is their cash crop. It funds the IRGC and the mullahs (much like GAESA does the Cuban military and political elite). Natural gas runs their power systems and they have enough natural gas in the country to last well into the next century. THEY DO NOT NEED NUCLEAR ENERGY FOR POWER, ONLY FOR A WEAPON. And it is this point that Trump should have made early on. Iran’s plan is to cause economic and environmental destruction to get its way so they can launch their Shia version of Armageddon. As I said earlier, we have fought people like this, Imperial Japan. The only question is do they have a Hirohito who does not want to see his people wiped out.
Trump has only two real choices. The first is to continue the fight, explain – in detail – why we’re fighting and the consequences if we let them get nukes. This would include what Iran gets if they abandon nukes, ballistic missiles and their terrorist proxies. And what they get is sanctions relief, Israeli desalinization technology and the ability to actually improve the lives of individual Iranians (or continue their attempts to irradicate the Balochi uprising in the southeast of Iran).
His second option consists of the following:
1. Bomb the Iranian ports in the Gulf of Oman rendering them unusable, then mine the channels so ships cannot enter. This will seriously restrict their ability to import anything especially war materiel.
2. Destroy the oil pumping facilities on the Iranian mainland that pumps oil to Kharg Island (which is simply a deep-water loading station). This destroys their cash crop, makes it harder for the IRGC and Iranian government to fund themselves. It will also take them years to rebuild and if they need money, that becomes job one.
3. Take out some (or most) of their oil storage. They have some tankers in the Indian Ocean that are ripe for removing from the dark fleet. No tankers, no transport for the oil and no $$$ for the regime. And they have plenty of storage tanks that the A-10 Warthogs can perforate. No oil to ship, no money coming in.
4. Attack their natural gas facilities at Fars. No gas, no power for their war industries and a much more restive population.
5. Destroy the bridges that allow ground transport between Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan. This may help the Balochi resistance in the southeast of the country which will divert regime resources.
6. If they decide to attack their neighbors desalinization facilities, two can play that game. At some point in time, the Iranian army and its security forces will have to decide if they wish to keep gunning down their own people, including friends and family.
After doing these things, declare victory and go home. The Europeans won’t like the loss of oil. Too bad. They can reactivate their own oil wells and come to the realization that their strange god of climate change is not the Almighty. The Indians and Chinese will grumble. Too bad. American companies will complain about supply chain issues. Too bad, bring the work back home. It may mean smaller dividends and executive bonuses and pay packets, but sometimes the needs of the nation are more important than the wants of shareholders, the Boards of Directors and the masturbators of money.
The net effect is that it will take Iran about 20 years or so to get near to a bomb. And then we do this all over again. And if you and I are still around, we can discuss it further.
But the key is he needs to explain it. Presidentially. In detail. And that means letting folks know there is a short-term cost to us if we are to keep the Iranians from getting nukes. And that the losses cited in option 2 will be the same as for option 1.
Here’s a suggestion. Think God. Iran, being a theocracy (yes, like Japan and Nazi Germany), speak in terms of their religion. A secular society, like what many are trying to pull off here in America, and around the globe, just can’t relate to theological terms without conjuring in their mind’s images like empirical conquest, genocide, vendetta, etc. They have no modern logical construct.
I think any one the religious patriots gathering on the Mall in Washington DC yesterday for the National Day of Prayer could explain the need for the Iranian conflict in three or four sentences, tops. The common people get it. Iran wants to end the world. We shouldn’t want them to be able to do so.
But did the allies tell congress and the press their plans for D-Day during WWII? Did Harry S. Truman discuss the finer points of his decision making before he dropped the fission bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki? No.
Why in his right mind, would Trump tell congress or the MSM his intent regarding Iran when they have an outspoken intent to blab everything they know to the world? Iran has been whacked, but that doesn’t mean they are impotent, devious, cunning, strategic and to some extent capable. Why would Trump convey actual truth to social media only to be derided by mockery?
No. We elected Trump. Objectively, he is doing a good job. Let him continue.
Trump has no obligation to explain his intentions to the people clamoring for it. He is, and has, explained his intentions to those who require it. That includes not just his cabinet and military leaders but also those political entities, both for and against him; but only those sworn to keep a freakin’ secret.
Sorry, you’ve obviously wound me up. I mean no disrespect to you. It’s the subject you and Bill touched on that motivates me.
— Vietnam, and its “policy”, was not the downfall of the Republicans in 1974. In fact, Nixon scored one of the most lopsided victories, ever, certainly historic for Republicans, earlier in the year precisely due to the contrast of his/Kissinger Vietnam policy vs Johnson’s non-policy. Republicans fell because, 1) Nixon was a dim-bulb and tried to act as his cabinet’s legal counsel to cover up the Watergate Hotel break in. Anyone with a brain knew he was lying. And 2) The Republicans, imprinted as they were by the trauma and shock of McCarthyism, irrespective of what the MSM inflicted upon them, pulled a perfect “Bill Cassidy”, en masse. Which is what the Republicans, the party of lesser IQ, the party of scared of their own shadow, the picture of ineptitude, the gang that can’t shoot straight . . . is now known for. A lot of their reputation was earned when half of the Republican congress (and half the party as a result) turned on Nixon instead of banding together like Ceasar’s party knows how to do and is known for. No wonder why Trump is so paranoid of loyalty. Why? Because loyalty is NOT what Republicans are known for.
— Bill Milliken, when running for governor kept his mouth shut concerning Nixon and Watergate. I know. I was 19, was starting college, was there and was watching. I believe it was the day after the election when a local MSM rag reported Bill’s words to the effect of how much of a nutcase he considered Nixon to be. Of course, being a consummate politician, and knowing the socialist trends in Michigan due to its history, Bill, I think, set the stage for why Michigan’s Republicans, today, are so counterculture to national Republicans while keeping a minor but identifiable distinction to Caesar’s Dem party.
— I perceive a bubble of indignation against this Dem/Socialist/MSM onslaught of Trump is rising. The full reaction shoe hasn’t fallen yet. It isn’t felt here in MSM controlled Michigan (thank you Bill B for fighting the trend). And as a result, it’s been interesting to watch the never-Trump wing of the MIGOP react to both the socialist leanings of Caesar’s party all while hating Trump but trying to keep a small, twisted, stringy, slimy, stretch of the truth.
Royal has stepped down from his soapbox.
Clearly, Watergate influenced races for the Michigan House – it was tough to recruit good R candidates and Dems won seats held by R incumbents. They did good work and were reelected until they chose to retire. (Favorable court-ordered Dem-drafted legislative redistricting plan helped.) BUT Bill Milliken was re-elected in that same 1974 election against Sandy Levin.
At this point in 2026, the only sure thing is endless speculation with a lot of unknowns and undecideds.
Thank you Bruice Timmons for accurately remembering the 1974 ELECTION.. WATERGATE significantly hurt Republicans– Gov. Williken Milliken was re-elected and served until 1983.
Agreed.
We have another 2-1/2 months until the primary. A lot can happen between now and then.
The Second Indochina War began with JFK’s authorized assassination of Ngô Đình Diệm, the Catholic president of South Vietnam, on 02 November 1963. It started a religious war between Buddhists and Catholics which the North Vietnamese joined after the Gulf of Tonkin incident, which they very much sought. The Buddhists and their Viet Cong allies were wiped out after their catastrophic Tet Offensive in 1968. From that point on, the fighting was a grudge match between U.S. military forces and the Peoples Army of North Vietnam.
The similarities to today’s Iran conflict are the religious nature of the war, the treasonous propaganda from the American left which crippled our military action, and the limitations of brief air power campaigns. The 1972 Linebacker Operations did force the North Vietnamese to the bargaining table in Paris, but could not defeat the North Vietnamese government by themselves due to strict temporal limitations imposed by the American political environment.
President Trump will have to further destroy Iranian infrastructure to end the conflict. The surviving, fragmented Iranian leadership has to be presented with a fait accompli. The only question here is what amount of time Trump will have to conclude this war. If the American political environment denies Trump the time needed to conclude this war at a low intensity, he will have to increase the tempo dramatically (to the great disadvantage of ordinary Iranians) or surrender.
This decision will determine the domestic political consequences.