Question 1): We all know that Donald Trump was the winner, if only by default, in his debate with President Joe Biden on June 27. This past Tuesday, Sept. 10, Trump faced a new challenge and a new opponent, Kamala Harris. Did he win again, or was he harmed by his side-by-side comparison with Harris?
Answer 1): Trump certainly didn’t win, but the jury is still out on whether it really harmed him. Judging by normal forensic debate standards, he was knocked out cold. Moreover, he lost in the universe of public opinion. Anybody who disagrees with that judgment has to be blind, deaf and dumb. In a sense, Harris won just by showing up. She looked and appeared articulate without a teleprompter, sensible, and ‘likeable enough’ while shifting the focus away from her and her record in a number of public offices. Instead, in rope-a-dope fashion, she made sure the spotlight was on Trump, who was angry, rambling, defensive and incoherent while veering off into extraneous issues such as Haitian immigrants eating cats in Ohio.
Still, the questions about Harris remain unresolved in the minds of many viewers (and voters). Is the electorate being asked to buy a pig in a poke? The ABC moderators and Trump himself allowed her to side-step answers to basic questions involving the Biden/Harris administration record on the economy, the Border, and foreign policy. A Mitchell Research poll taken immediately after the debate revealed, amazingly, that 29% of Michigan voters felt Trump actually WON the debate (54% thought Harris did) and that the two major party nominees are locked in a dead heat in the Great Lakes State. Similar polls nationally and in other states show pretty much the same thing. That confirms that the partisan divisions in the polity are so hardened that little can budge either side away from its entrenched preference, and those meager few “independents’ who are undecided are not ready to be moved by a single debate.
Strangely, there was chatter immediately after the debate about ANOTHER debate, but Trump now says (at least for the time being) that he won’t debate anymore. For that matter, why would Harris agree to debate again? Unless polls in the coming days show that she is somehow slipping behind Trump in public affection, she is in position to simply run out the clock between now and Nov. 5. Let the vast majority of the so-called ‘legacy’ news media carry her water and avoid further public scrutiny. How Kamala Harris performs in the Presidency will depend almost entirely on which party controls both chambers of the Congress. That’s likely to be the Democrats, and we’ll be back to 2021-22 or 2009-2010, or even 1965-66. Some two-thirds of the U.S. population believe the country is headed in the ‘wrong direction,’ and that’s not going to change the day after the general election. This means the much-bemoaned ‘polarization’ of Americans and their politics will not be alleviated but exacerbated in the months and years to come.
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Question 2): Which candidate for Michigan’s open U.S. Senate seat — Democrat Elissa Slotkin or Republican Mike Rogers — will be under the most pressure during their upcoming debates?
Answer 2): It has to be Rogers. Polling today shows that the gap between the candidates in the U.S. Senate race is larger than that in the Presidential race — with Slotkin ahead — and it’s likely to still be that way by the time they debate. Plus, she has a huge advantage in campaign cash. Rogers has to figure out a way to make up that deficit in a state with a slight Democratic lean. He has to find some way to damage Slotkin’s public image to cause her to run behind the Democratic ticket —and that’s a tall order. Yes, China, immigration, abortion, the “defense of democracy,” opioids, and foreign policy are important, but both contestants know that inflation, the cost of living and the economy are still the still the Number One issues on voters’ minds. Rogers has to make sure Slotkin is playing defense on those pocketbook issues and force her to justify her record of supporting the Biden agenda. Rogers needs to change the direction of this race, or he’s doomed to run 3-4 points behind the top of the ticket, which his standard bearer, Donald Trump, may lose, anyway, making Rogers’s path to victory that much harder if not impossible. .
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Wow are you ever ON POINT Also very consistent when you wrote 2 months ago “ Trump was unhinged, weird speech, lapsing into disjointed jargon with bombast, hyperbole, and outright falsehoods”
The significant outstanding question is can the Democrats hold a majority in the State House of Representatives?
I can’t thank you enough for a wonderful political diversion from the routine Michigan —Michigan State football games this afternoon
Michigan House of Representatives is up for grabs.
In Warren, the Macomb Daily reported that 13th District Democratic Party incumbent Mai Xiong had a 2.4 million-dollar default judgment entered against her in 2022 in Wisconsin. When questioned she issued a statement that she was aggressively trying to get the judgment set aside.
News of the judgment only hit the news media after most Democrats had already voted in the primary via absentee ballot or early voting and as a result she easily defeated challenger Richard Steenland of Roseville.
She now must beat Republican Party nominee Ronald Singer in November to be re-elected.
Great Analysis Bill on both Topics .on question one .I have never since2016 figured out how in
This modern World can anybody with Respect for Good Character the Responsibility of Citizenship in a democracy vote and support
President Trump ! Sad as he continues to shoot
Himself in the foot or I should say blow his foot offf especially after being absolutely Hammered by the Vice President !Maybe he was eating a cat for dinner or a dog (Humor) .2) Mike Rogers well his bad record speaks loud and clear !
It’s to bad that Michigan’s GOP could not take the party back from the Trumpers!
Trump’s numbers remain strong in Michigan.
Good rally in Flint where he met with Hamtramck’s mayor.
You’re absolutely right Bill. If Trump changes his mind and agrees to another debate, Kamala may turn. Him down. She doesn’t need another’!
The facts about the cat eating person weren’t available. Turns out that it was a mental health problem with a legal resident, not a Haitian. In my opinion, Harris lost. She avoided questions, posed with different facial expressions and generally acted like that English teacher that you hated back in high school. She was arrogant and condescending. She told twenty-five lies without being fact-checked, while Trump was checked seven times. It was a three-on-one debate, since the “moderators” jumped in on the action, too. Harris was wearing earrings with speakers and she was provided the questions beforehand. There was nothing fair about this farce at all! Since losers are almost always the party that wants a rematch, that’s a good indication that Harris, or her handlers thinks that she lost. My ass might be dumb, but I’m not a dumbass.
Whuffagowie,
What’s your source of information that Harris was wearing earrings with speakers and that she was provided the questions ahead of the debate?
His imagination. And right wing media. And now we see that Vance says he’s willing to make up stories to support his racism. It’s sad world.
So you don’t believe your lyin’ eyes?
Bill, thanks for the update. Would waiting till Sunday add some perspective? Perhaps.
Wrt Q#1: Saying I told you so just doesn’t have the same satisfaction once what you say comes true. Just because Trump got a false positive in bouncing an ailing Biden doesn’t discount that I suggested Trump not step into the ring with this party of mockers and give them legitimacy. I suggested then it could be catastrophic. Yep, if you ask ABC, MSNBC, CNN, CBS, PBS, it was. Odd, when you play back exactly the give and take, Trump did and said pretty much what needed to be said (dogs and cats missing around recent aliens is an old old joke, not funny anymore). Leave it to mob control that says the candidate that dodged every single direct question tossed her way be declared the winner. Right up there with Jesus and Barabas. How dare Trump actually answer the questions!
Trump perceived as the angry warrior I am sure was him trying to concentrate and take a joke seriously. Again, that was the mistake.
She did seem awfully prepared for the questions, did she not? I’m sure the female ABC host being sorority sisters with Nasty Kam gave them no opportunity to provide the questions in advance (ala Donna Brazile) . . . no . . . . Sorry greek frat/sorority kin . . . I’ve been to college and saw firsthand how test notes are passed around frats come exam time. You ain’t gonna convince me otherwise.
Doesn’t matter, just creates another hole that the truth needs to dig out of. Hail Caesar!
Wrt Q#2: Again, I think I’ve mentioned before that it may be Harris/Slotkin going away in MI. No satisfaction.
Rogers certainly was not my first choice. We owe a sincere apology to Edward Snowden for revealing the truth about the Patriot Act. And overlooking Slotkin’s genetic and ethnic faux paws. How in the world ethnic Jews can get into the same political bed with people who want to genocide them (we used to call that the sin of Jezebel) is beyond me. To me it seems a long long stretch to accept genocide (of national Jews) rather than limit their personal right to rip babies to shreds should they make a reproductive mistake. Do they really think they are safe by convincing themselves that at least the national Jews and Christians will meet the headsman before they will? Boy, are we ready for 1938 Germany, or what? But I guess that’s just me.
Welcome to the Brave New World.
Mike Rogers has polling numbers against Slotkin that have been largely unchanged for about one year – a 4% deficit. Unless Rogers comes up with a new massage, Slotkin is likely to win November 5th.
Yes, Harris was very prepared. She spent a week in Pittsburgh with a first rate team helping her prepare. Trump played golf and he did a rally. He was thoroughly unprepared. Buying that Newsmax baloney about earphones and sorority sisters is intellectually lazy.
Trump got creamed, pure and simple. Do any of MAGA team wish, if only to themselves, that smooth talking, intelligent and logical JD Vance was your candidate? Vance is still lying about pets in Springfield, OH but he doesn’t come off as mentally unstable. Yep, I’m a never Trumper and anti MAGA after 40 of voting GOP exclusively. Tons of conservatives like me aren’t tied to a party any more. We don’t cower to a bully.
Dr. Jill Stein just published polling on Muslim voters in swing states.
In Michigan, projected vote totals among Muslim voters are 40%% to Jill Stein, 15% to Donald Trump and 12% to Kamala Harris.
In 2020, the Green Party nominee raked in 13,000 votes – or about .25% of the total Michigan vote in the presidential race. Projected totals in 2024 for Jill Stein are about 1% – or about 52,000 votes.
In Arizona and Wisconsin, the same poll shows Green Party nominee Dr. Stein with a slight lead over Kamala Harris and Trump finishing a distant third place.
Under almost all polling in Michigan the last few months, the Harris-Trump race is a statistical dead heat.
Dr. Jill Stein has spoken common sense.
The Biden Administration’s pronouncements on Gaza show that they are hopelessly beholden to AIPAC. A recent State Department official indicated that there is not any cease-fire in Gaza expected while Biden is president.
Progressives in Michigan are hoping Kamala Harris and Elissa Slotkin lose in November.
The U.S. Green Party and Jill Stein and it Michigan U.S. Senate nominee Doug Marsh have told the truth and exhibited plenty of wisdom and common sense on the Gaza War.
It is absolutely disgusting how Arab-Americans were treated at the Democratic national Convention in Chicago and the Michigan Democratic Convention in Lansing.
The fact Huwaida Arraf is suing the Michigan Democratic Party is unsurprising.
Not that the Michigan Republican Convention by contrast was perfect in any sense of the word – with Kristina Karamo being escorted out by the Flint P.D.
The U.S. Green Party and Libertarian Party (with Chase Oliver) are fielding better presidential candidates than the Dems or the GOP.
I agree that Harris “won” the debate more on style than anything else. She baited Trump, an individual who is easily baited either by questioning his crowd size or by flattery. But while I will no doubt vote for Harris, I am disappointed in her not using available ammunition against Trump on the issue of inflation and high prices, which may be the number one issue for voters this election. A president’s policies do not end their effect when the president leaves office. The combination of major deficit spending under Trump, and his part in ending an oil price war among the world’s major oil producers (Google “Trump deal to reduce oil production”) were significant causes of inflation and high prices when Covid eased. I was hoping Harris would bring this up in the debate, but she didn’t. It is a puzzle to me why neither the media nor the Democrats have talked about Trump policies, particularly Trump restricting oil production into 2022, relative to inflation and high prices.
Harris may have “blitzed Trump” but polls are showing the post-debate up-for-grabs voters are breaking for Trump. Harris had a chance to score a first impression as presidential candidate and she didn’t make the sale. She never answered a question, she didn’t positively outline any plans of hers, her visuals were terrible (the smirking, smug condescension was off-putting to men and women alike. This hurt Hillary 8 years ago, why repeat the mistake?)
Trump is Trump, he’s thoroughly defined, nobody pro- or con- will change their minds. But this was Kam Harris’ debut and she didn’t show what she needed, to sway the crucial on-the-fence voters. I too thought Harris won, but all of us political animals see different stuff than the normal folks out there. They saw Kamala Harris and they didn’t like what they saw. But Trump: “I wouldn’t invite him to my wedding but he’s the guy to fix my car. Things aren’t so good and he’s the better guy to fix it.”
That’s why she wants a rematch.
–And the Biggest Loser was ABC News. Whatever credibility they had is gone, baby, gone.
–And speaking of Springfield Ohio, something is sure going on. The Governor is sending state troopers and appropriating a couple of million dollars to deal with it, whatever it is. Where are the watchdogs of the press? OK, let me put it another way…Where are the dogged newshounds… okay, I mean… They should be grilling the politicians, not the other way around.
Agree.
Trump was in a no win situation. Harris’ handlers were trying to set Trump up as a bully by baiting him into mansplaining and other boorish behaviors. Why they wanted his microphone hot during her replies. Trump didn’t take the bait, but his normal debate performance was emasculated. Fairly certain this is why Trump will not accede to a second debate.
Mike Rodgers would be well advised to consider Trump’s predicament in this debate. Democrat female candidates are hiding behind their gender during debates to smear Republican male candidates in the eyes of their prime, cat lady demographic.
Several interesting news items:
(A) Palestinian-American civil rights leader Huwaida Arraf is suing the Michigan Democratic Party and Jocelyn Benson for What she claims is an attempt to unjustly keep her off the ballot as a U-M Board of Regents nominee – the Arab-American News is one of the few periodicals to cover the story;
(B) Democratic Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel has outraged human rights groups by filing criminal charges against pro-Palestinian demonstrators in Ann Arbor that had been protesting the Gaza War;
(C) the Times of Israel has reported that a Republican PAC has financed social media ads and targeted Arab-Americans in Michigan with messaging emphasizing Kamala Harris’ strong ties and commitment t Israel.
Mike Rogers and Donald Trump campaigns would be remiss to not take advantage of the offensive treatment that has been heaped upon Arab-Americans in Michigan – who played a key role as a voting bloc in 2020 that had propelled Biden to a win in Michigan against Trump.
Donald Trump is the only GOP nominee to take Michigan in a presidential election since 1988.
Polling now shows the Michigan race to be in a statistical dead heat between Trump and Harris.
Democrats continue to self-inflict damage on their hopes for a Dem victory. U.S. Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib has denounced fellow Democrat Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel for her role in prosecuting the “Wolverine Eleven” – who face serious criminal charges arising from the pro-Gaza protests at University of Michigan last spring.
Trump won Michigan in 2016 by aggressively targeting minorities. His denunciation of Obama’s nuclear agreement with Iran and his hardline against Islamic terrorism endeared him to Jewish and Chaldean minorities.
Trump could easily beat Harris in Michigan considering polling indicates Muslim voters are expected to avoid Kamala Harris in droves in this state.
Recall that polling showed Hillary Clinton was projected to win Michigan comfortably in 2016 against BOTH Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primary AND Trump in November in the general election – neither occurred – and in 2020 the margin of victory by Biden over Trump was far less than Biden’s impressive polling numbers.
Will the Electorate know who Harris’s handlers are ,should She win election ?I fear not! Just like at the present time ,the Decision Makers will remain unknown !
Interesting: If the basic needs and aspirations of ordinary people get met – a meaningful job, a safe place to live with family and friends, some respect for tolerable differences, an actual “rule of law”, a religion of conservation rather than consumption – it sort of seems that the things that apparently drive such episodes, what us fearful people call “monstrous” because we can imagine it happening so easily to us, sort of evaporate.
Not too many forces and powers and interests pushing in that direction, of course………
The Mike Rogers campaign has failed to capitalize on the infighting within the Democratic Party.
Elissa Slotkin’s victory over Hill Harper was beyond landslide with over 75% of the primary vote against Hill Harper – however there were weaknesses.
In Hamtramck, she lost every voting precinct except one to Hill Harper – and that precinct was decided by only one vote.
In Detroit, Hill Harper won a clear majority of precincts and the overall vote as well against Slotkin.
In Dearborn. much ado was made that Slotkin beat Harper – however in the most heavily Arab-American precinct (Precinct #1) Harper carried it by a 80%-20% margin.
The progressive wing of the Michigan Democrats will do one of three things on Election Day in the Michigan U.S. Senate race:
(a) vote for Democrat Elissa Slotkin;
(b) not vote at all;
(c) vote for MI Green Party nominee for U.S. Senate Doug Marsh;
(d) vote for Mike Rogers.
Slotkin’s lead over Rogers dropped in half after the October 7th attacks, per polling. Rogers has made no inroads and has been steadily hovering at 4% behind Slotkin.
The Green Party has done a wonderful job at aggressively pursuing the progressive and Arab-American vote in Michigan this election cycle.
Mike Rogers needs to aggressively pursue aggrieved Democrats at all points in the spectrum.
Which candidate for U.S. Senate in Michigan has exhibited a coherent and intelligent position on the Gaza conflict – Doug Marsh of the Green Party.
Look for abject pandering and mealy-mouthed pronouncements from everyone else running for the seat.