Question 1): U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens, who as everyone knows is a candidate for the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate, has taken to calling herself a “geek” in the closing days of her campaign. This past week, she told supporters: “There’s those cool kids on the Internet doing the cool kid chatter. Some of ’em might be the coastal elites, making fun of how I talk … But, let’s be real. They’re making fun of Michigan. They’re thinking they’re better than us. What they don’t know is that I’m your voice. And their jokes, and their criticism, only make me fight harder.”
So, has Stevens managed to flip the script on critiques about her appearance and mannerisms that have been ridiculed in social media? Can she use her new self-described persona to reconnect with voters in a positive way before August 4?
Answer 1): Hard to see how, at this late date. Up to half the Democratic electorate has cast ballots by this time, and Stevens appears to be lagging behind Abdul El-Sayed, possibly by double digits, in the polls. Strangely, she reminds us of Republican Rick Snyder’s “One Tough Nerd” campaign for governor back in 2010, but Snyder’s slogan was disarming in a good way (for him). After his own self-description, it was difficult for his opponents to use the perceived epithet against him. By contrast, Stevens is resorting to her “geek” appellation at the end, seemingly in desperation. It’s true, Stevens IS a geek, a female nerd, always has been. Whatever her prowess has been as chief of staff for Barack Obama’s Auto Rescue task force, or her work on the CHIPS act in Congress, she comes across everywhere as slightly strange-looking, awkward, and uncomfortable. She’s the farthest thing from a charismatic retail politician, which, unfortunately for her, El-Sayed is in spades.
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Question 2): Is the cake already baked in the state’s U.S. Senate Democratic primary race, or could last-minute messaging or some other development change the result?
Answer 2): If this election is close, any “final days” change of any sort could tip the balance, but it’s unlikely. It depends if Election Day turnout turns out to be stronger than absentee and early voting turnout. If that were to be the case, it’s possible that this race or some other races could flip, but recently most Democrats vote absentee and vote early. On the progressive wing especially, voters know who they are going to vote for, if they haven’t already, and it’s not for Stevens. The energy and momentum and frustration of the Democratic base is embodied in El-Sayed. The Stevens narrative has been reaffirmed by moderate Establishment forces rushing in to defend her (think Schumer, Granholm, Stabenow, Peters, and Whitmer) and the tens of millions of dollars that are coming with them. However, those dollars may not be as useful as they were in prior elections in this environment. Make no mistake about it: If Stevens loses to El-Sayed, it will be unprecedented and historic — never has a candidate been outspent by an opponent 12-1 and still managed to win, at least not in Michigan. Ironically, the same thing may happen at the same time in the Republican gubernatorial primary — Perry Johnson may not outspend John James by 12-1, but the funding gap will still be huge.
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Question 3): What impact will Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s late endorsement of Stevens have in the U.S. Senate Democratic primary?
Answer 3): Little or none. Pollsters and the news media have always overestimated Whitmer’s popularity compared with her predecessors, and near the end of her tenure she’s weaker with the Democratic base than she was in her COVID heyday doing battle with Donald Trump. She’s done a lot to alienate the Democratic base with her cozying up to Trump in the last two years and, most recently, vetoing the nine bills from 2024 her party fought so hard to get signed into law. That could solidify the Establishment-skeptic Democrats, who seem to be the majority of their party right now. Whitmer’s belated endorsement of Stevens is a show of solidarity with the old guard against the new. She’s jumping on the train on her way out of town.
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Thanks for this excellent post – it’s spot on.
Abdul El-Sayed has pulled ahead and shall be the first Muslim nominated to a Democratic Party U.S. Senate.
One of the most significant phenomenon about this race is the futility of AIPAC and other pro-Israel PACs in Michigan – their tactics were exposed and discredited. Their funding placed El-Sayed’s face all over the media in attack ads that gave him greater exposure.
Another is the belated endorsements of Governor Whitmer, Gary Peters and Dana Nessel – Haley Stevens collapsed in polling AFTER these weighty endorsements were announced. It shows even rank-and-file Democrats do not care about these politicians’ endorsements.
The establishment wing of the Michigan Democratic Party has collapsed. They will have to turn to Mike Rogers to keep El-Sayed from assuming the U.S. Senate seat held by Gary.Peters.
It’s now down to whether people will vote the party or the person, both in the primary and the mid-term election.
Nice article, Bill.
Regarding Question 1, it seems to me that Stevens in her ads has been trying to establish herself as the political work horse compared to El Sayed’s political show horse. Polling data indicates that it is not working for her. I see in her ads someone appealing to “establishment” Democrats, especially black voters. At least she is going down with both barrels blazing. Michigan could do worse than having a US Senator who looks towards the late Henry “Scoop” Jackson’s work habits as a role model. And if the polling holds up, the Democrats may be saying yes, we can.
As for question 2, the thing to look out for is where that money goes after the primary. Will those donors belly up to the bar for El Sayed? Will they stay home? Will they cross the aisle? Whichever happens, The Ballenger Report will be there to report on it!
As for Gretchen and question 3, it seems she is content to ride off into the sunset and the world of corporate boards, or punditry, or consulting. As you have noted, she has angered the base, the party, and seemingly has shown her clout to be nothing but a mirage now. Some of my friends from UAW Local 6000 (state employees) describe her in language they usually reserve for Republicans.
Whether this is the last ride of the Democratic establishment here in Michigan or not, only time will tell. It will be fun to see how Jocelyn Benson and the rest of the Democratic Party establishment handles this and all the fallout from what has happened so far.
Jordan Acker, no one’s idea of a Republican, had his home and worksite vandalized over his support of Israel. Apparently, his past voting records the donations made to the Party and various campaigns were not enough to “protect” him from believing Israel has a right to exist.
We have been greeted by the news that Attorney General Dana Nessel does not feel safe attending the Democratic state convention this month. Let me quote from Mediaite’s story on this from July 31st. As usual, the quoted story will be in all caps as I have yet to figure out how to italicize in my responses.
“MICHIGAN ATTORNEY GENERAL DANA NESSEL (D) SAID DURING A ROUNDTABLE DISCUSSION ON ANTI-SEMITISM ON THURSDAY THAT SHE WOULD NOT GO TO HER OWN PARTY’S STATE CONVENTION NEXT MONTH OVER FEARS FOR HER SAFETY.
“I FEEL LIKE MY PRESENCE ISN’T GOING TO BE WELCOME. I DON’T WANT TO GET CHASED AROUND. I DON’T WANT TO GET HARASSED,” NESSEL TOLD THE GROUP, ACCORDING TO LOCAL REPORTING.
MICHIGAN ADVANCE’S KATHERINE DAILEY REPORTED THAT NESSEL ADDED, “I DON’T WANT TO GET YELLED AND SCREAMED AT. I DON’T WANT TO GET BOOED OFF THE STAGE, IRRESPECTIVE OF WHAT I’M SAYING. AND I BELIEVE THAT IF I GO, THAT IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN BECAUSE IT’S BEEN HAPPENING TO ME.”
Now, Dana Nessel is not my favorite attorney general, but she does not deserve that sort of treatment. Especially from her own party.
The Primary and General elections will certainly entertaining, and we all be in store for a healthy dose of democracy, H.L. Mencken style.
REMEMBER TO VOTE! And if in Chicago, vote early and often.