Question 1): A Dec. 27 meeting has been scheduled to remove Kristina KARAMO from the post of Michigan Republican Party Chair. About what percentage of the state party’s dysfunction would this fix?
Answer 1): Maybe 30%. She’s the biggest single problem, but an enormous clean-up operation awaits the new chair. Also, WHO WILL BE THE NEW CHAIRMAN?! That’s the biggest quick fix, and obviously the Michigan GOP is fulling capable of blowing it again. If the party doesn’t get the right person, the chaos will persist.
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Question 2): At what point will the Michigan Republican Party’s dysfunction begin impacting actual voters?
Answer 2): ) Believe it or not, it may not have as big an impact as people think. A lot depends on how the party handles things post-Karamo. Beyond that, the Michigan GOP has begun refashioning itself into ‘silos’ such as the Mike Rogers silo and the state House Republican silo backed by Rick Snyder and Bill Parfet. They’ll ignore the state party.
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Question 3): Grosse Pointe business executive Sandy PENSLER has entered the MiGOP U.S. Senate race, bringing the number of candidates to 11. What are his chances of winning the nomination?
Answer 3): Zero. He’s a two-time loser with an arrogant and unlikable personality. Even if his money brings him to early prominence in the polls, the party is still smart enough to realize he cannot be the nominee.
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Answer 4): Little impact on the other candidates, but it may depend on how Penslar positions himself in his ad avalanche. Is he a Trumpster? Or is he more moderate like Rogers or Meijer? If GOP primary voters feel there are too many middle-aged white guys with suspect records or backgrounds, that could redound to the benefit of candidates like the more conservative James Craig or even SBE board member Nikki Snyder, who will probably be the only credible female in the race.
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Leanne says
Thank you for this analysis. It is needed instead of the liberal hit pieces in the mainstream media.
A few points:
(A) Scott Greenlee and J.D. Glaser have the knowledge, experience and personality to lead the Michigan GOP as chairman;
(B) big money GOP insiders are merely circumventing the Michigan Republicans state party organization by funneling campaign funding through PACs and candidate committees – the goal is to keep campaign funding from the control of Karamo and her minions;
(C) many 2024 candidates are bypassing the Michigan GOP entirely and seeking alternate sources of financial support.
Nick D says
I think you are completely wrong Bill.
While factions can ignore the state party there are still certain things that only a state party can do under state and federal election and/or campaign finance laws. It is difficult to see Michigan being a true battleground, either presidential or senatorial, without some sort of functional state party even if it’s just a clearinghouse for campaign finance.
Leanne says
State party organizations in Michigan are responsible for credentialing delegates and administering nominating elections as well as votes by delegates on changes in party platforms.
State convention delegates in the recent past have paid their way during the convention process. The county party conventions deliver the credentialed delegates to the state convention and the congressional district committees organize the district caucuses at the convention. The state party organization is involved in overseeing the state convention process to a certain extent, however the chairman’s role is comparatively minor to the various other committees that assist in convention administration.
The Michigan Republicans organization is in no financial condition to assist any candidates at this time. Kristina Karamo already has said this.
Royal says
Why not automatically draw off a meaningful percentage of candidate campaign contributions, irrespective of their source, to their respective homerooms, ie, DNC, RNC, Libertarians, etc? Should make the Karamo haters squeal . . . , but its the only way I see of the RNC reviving a spark of life . . .
Royal says
Bill, I’m a little confused on this one.
with-respect-to Q#1: “. . . She’s [Karamo] the biggest single problem, . . . That’s the biggest quick fix,” Pretty clear where you reside on this one, Bill, but I’m not really following your logic. Why?
a) If we get another the likes of Karamo, the $$ elite in MI have already made effective ways of circumventing the RNC, not that the RNC has been much of a $$ magnet anyway. So, who cares?
b) If we get another $$ elite or another squishy socialist appeaser, then lets just watch the Dems put another lock on the MI Senate. Yer not giving us much of a choice here, Bill.
wrt Q#2: “Believe it or not, it may not have as big an impact as people think.”. I concur. At least Karamo is a vocal sounding board against voter fraud and the Dems, even if a broke and penniless sounding board. I’m not seeing any replacement candidates as being more/less effective.
wrt Q#3: Gee, wrt Pensler, you sound like most Republican appeasers speak of Mr Trump. And we don’t even know if he’s a Trumpster yet. Sounds at least like he might be a fighter.
wrt Q#4: “Penslar[sic]”? Really? Twice? OK, you are obviously looking for a survey poll, then chalk me up for #1) Sherry O’Donnell, or, in case she is run out of town on the RNC rail, then #2) Nikki Snyder, or, #3) Elissa Slotkin . . . . Again, pretty slim pickins.
I thought you where going to ask our reaction to Gov. Buttigieg, but maybe that does come next . . .
Leanne says
I am glad you mentioned Dr. Sherry O’Donnell – not a big name but an intelligent articulate lady who could be a contender if she got good funding.
Tim Sullivan says
Nice article, Bill.
The MIGOP has been waging a cold civil war between the populist/Trumpian faction and the more traditional business GOP. Both sides in the GOP civil war need to ask themselves the following questions:
1. Is Karamo a competent administrator? That is, is she competently running the state GOP. If not, why should she remain in office? This is not a question of politics. It is simply a question of administrative skill. I have many skills, but if you put me in charge of your company or agency’s computer systems, you’re screwed. I am – at best – computer semi-literate. On a good day. Regardless, I should NEVER be put in charge of any IT department. EVER.
2. Is she capable of raising the money needed for the GOP to run? Money remains the mother’s milk of politics. Again, if not, why does she remain in office? Now this is a civil war/politics question, but if you can’t raise the money, you need someone else at the head.
Now, removing Karamo will not fix this problem. I don’t know any of the potential successors, so I will defer to Leanne on their administrative skillsets. But if the MIGOP won’t, or can’t, get along with each other, another Chair won’t fix the problem. Leanne is also right on the establishment’s position of party control. The donor class has little use for the party’s base and the feeling is mutual. This dislike will have an adverse impact in 2024, but how much, I don’t know. Self-funding candidates may be able to function without a strong party, but the likelihood of success is dubious. And the donor class is not likely to support something that is doomed to lose.
Nick D is right about the need for a functional party organization and the way that campaign and election laws are written, to the benefits of party organizations. It is the way you line up future candidates for office. I think that is why the GOP establishment was so upset that they lost control of the party to the populist/Trumpian wing.
As for the questions on Sandy Pensler, I don’t know much about Mr. Pensler other than he has money. That said, I think that Sandy Pensler won’t have much impact, despite his money, unless he is willing to spend every last penny he has. And I don’t see that happening.
David L Richards says
I have no doubt that contributors will find a way to fund and support their candidates by going around the state party and sending their support direct to the candidate. The subject that interests me as mentioned by other commenters is how significant is a functioning, or not functioning, state party? Bill says replacing Karamo would solve 30% of the party’s dysfunction, but to what extent would not replacing Karamo limit Michigan Republican chances in 2024? Or in the reverse, if she is replaced, would that be a slap in the face to enough of the people who made her state chair and who are her supporters generally to affect the upcoming election?
Leanne says
Kristina Karamo was a dark horse when she announced her candidacy for Michigan GOP chair.
Matt Deperno finished second in delegate voting to Karamo. kristina had the backing of Macomb County GOP chair Mark Forton or she would have never won the chairmanship of the state party organization. Deperno is currently under criminal indictment and cannot practically run for any office until charges a re resolved.
Kristina’s strong support came from female delegates, on one hand, and Macomb County delegates, on the second hand. Outstate MAGA fanatics also saw her as devoted to Donald Trump and the MAGA cause – that gave her the chairmanship of the GOP.
Kristina Karamo can be expected to fight her removal effort tooth and nail and enlist the courts if needed.
Matt Crehan says
Answer #1. 50% at a minimum. She has been wholly ineffective, as reflected by her inability to raise funds, and more importantly, cause others to raise funds. Also, she has not instilled any confidence in any donor who would be willing to give funds to the MIGOP. After she is removed (which will happen very soon), the most important issue is: WHO will replace her? That person had better have some seasoned POLITICAL experience, and not just be a talking head with no substance. That person should also be able to put out fires, repair damaged infrastructure, and have the backbone to take charge; the goal being to elect GOP candidates in 2024.
Answer #2. The more time passes, the worse it will be. Right now, it’s not really noticeable. But it’s noticeable enough for this question to be posed. If the MIGOP isn’t turned around in the right direction, and soon, then the entire ticket will be irrevocably damaged for this election cycle. As to the comment, “They’ll ignore the state party.”; ‘They’, being defined as those who are opposed to whoever is in control of the MIGOP at that time; ‘They’ always have ignored the state party when ‘They’ are not in control.
Answer #3. It’s certainly more than zero. Pensler has a great resume, and is exactly the type of individual that we need in the US Senate. (Perry Johnson would be another. So would Kevin Rinke.) I’m still shocked that he lost to John James by such a large amount. To this moment, I can’t fathom what anyone thinks John James brings to the table. A total lightweight.
Answer #4. Pensler takes a piece of the pie from Rogers, the establishment choice, and Meijer, the moron’s choice. Based on how Meijer voted in his single term, he would dress up in a Klan robe and solicit votes from the NAACP. He simply poked the 3rd District in the eye too many times. Better he return to bagging groceries on the 3rd Lane, provided he remember not to put the eggs at the bottom of the sack. James Craig is too much of a dunce to realize campaigns don’t end at the Wayne County line.
John C Stewart says
Karamo will leave- I don’t know when. A former Republican MI Supreme Court Justice has said, “Greenlee is the only sane one to be the Republican Party chair”. Period.
STATEWIDE- Republicans will NEVER, NEVER, NEVER win again unless we adopt moderately-conservative positions on the ISSUES.
PETER MEIJER IS , BY FAR, BEST CHOICE FOR US SENATE. DON’T YOU GET IT-YOUNGER GENERATION-“KENNEDYESQUE”. Meijer has charisma. SLOTKIN is worried-because you can’t defeat his INTELLIGENCE-Colombia educated. (Army Intelligence in Iraq & Afghanistan)
I rest my case.
Leanne says
Peter Meijer cannot win MAGA strongholds like Macomb County – nor among pro-Trump enthusiasts in general.
Slotkin’s polling numbers have dropped against both Mike Rogers and James Craig – she leads then by TWO PERCENTAGE POINTS.
Peter Meijer has divided the Michigan GOP to an enormous extent.
Damon Lieurance says
1) The biggest problem is there are now three factions in the party. The Deperno, Karamo and Weiser tribes refuse to work together and will accept nothing less than total domination over the other two factions. Greenlee would have made a good chairman but the grass roots will reject him for running Meijer’s campaign., now.
2) Shortly after Whitmer and Biden took office. The old losers that know ot is better to cut your losses and vote for the lesser evil, the establishment are new losers and haven’t learned to overcome that bitterness, yet.
3 and 4) Zero. He just hasn’t been able to attract supporters.
Leanne says
Pensler is putting together a star-studded campaign team that includes Oakland County GOP Executive Director Amber Harris – who has left that position to work for Pensler.