If former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Brighton) decides to run for Michigan’s open U.S. Senate seat next year and he gets through what could be a contentious GOP primary, what happens next? He would be likely to find himself matched up with U.S. Rep. Elissa SLOTKIN (D-Holly) in an expensive general election contest with national implications. A Rogers-Slotkin faceoff might be the most exciting U.S. Senate race in the country. It might be the most mesmerizing U.S. Senate race in Michigan, ever. One of the key questions, of course, would be “What issue or issues would each side choose to use?”
Question 1):. If the match-up in Michigan’s 2024 U.S. Senate race ends up being Republican Mike Rogers vs Democrat Elissa Slotkin, what would Rogers want to be the top issue (or issues) in the race?
Answer 1): A Slotkin-Rogers match-up has the prospect of being the most intelligent debate ever on foreign policy by two Michigan general election nominees for the U.S. Senate. However, it won’t turn out that way because both candidates know Americans don’t really care that much about foreign policy. The focus as usual will be on domestic issues, and Rogers would concentrate on anything he can find that Slotkin has voted on in the past five years that is controversial and use it against her.
That could range from the massive federal deficit to which Slotkin has contributed with her votes on spending, to her positions on social/cultural issues that Rogers could try to depict as ‘extreme.’ Mike Rogers has one big advantage in that he hasn’t served in Congress for nine years (next year, 10) and thus doesn’t have any track record on all the hot-button stuff that Slotkin has had to vote on for three terms.
That said, important factors are likely outside of Rogers’s (and Slotkin’s) control, like Joe Biden’s approval numbers if he’s the Democratic nominee, or Donald Trump’s unpopularity with a large segment of the electorate if he’s the Republican standardbearer. And how big a factor will be issues like immigration, which doesn’t affect Michigan as much as it does other parts of the nation? And will inflation be off the table as an issue by the fall of 2024?
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Question 2): If the match-up is Rogers vs Slotkin, what would Slotkin want to be the top issue (or issues) in the race?
Answer 2): Few know it, but Slotkin is on record (and audio) praising Rogers back in 2018 shortly after she announced she would challenge U.S. Rep. Mike BISHOP, Rogers’s successor in the old 8th CD. Paraphrasing Slotkin, she said in effect: ‘Oh, I would never challenge Mike Rogers. In my experience with him, he has been fine. But Mike Bishop is a whole ‘nuther thing.’ Remember, Slotkin had served in the Pentagon under both Presidents George W. BUSH and Barack OBAMA, while Rogers was chairman of the House Intelligence Committee. They had dealings with each other. Slotkin and Rogers are both considered hawks, which may prove interesting on the issue of U.S. involvement in Ukraine depending on what happens between now and next year at this time with the Russian invasion.
Slotkin needs to take credit for the avalanche of federal money that has cascaded into Michigan since COVID hit in 2020. Yes, it’s having a real-world impact on Michigan infrastructure, schools and local communities, but Slotkin will also have to distance herself from an unpopular incumbent President who was in large part responsible for getting those federal dollars shepherded through Congress. That will be a real test of her ability to continue her claims of being ‘bipartisan,’ which she has used in her three Congressional campaigns.
Otherwise, Slotkin will probably concentrate on an issue like health care, which she used against Bishop based on her mother’s experience with cancer and inability to get insurance coverage. Also, she’ll play the abortion card, the only question being how aggressively. By the way, how did Mike Rogers vote on Obamacare, and how did he talk about it afterwards? He was in the House at the time, and Slotkin wasn’t.
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Question 3): How concerned should Michigan Republicans be that entrepreneur J.C. HUIZENGA, who in the past has primarily backed Republican candidates, contributed $20,000 to the Michigan House Democratic Fund in the first quarter of 2023?
Answer 3): Having a major party donor contribute so heavily to your opposition is never a good sign, but it’s doubtful most Michigan Republicans will be that concerned unless Huizenga is a pilot fish. Businessmen have a history of hedging their political bets by contributing to candidates from both of the major political parties. Huizenga knows that Republicans have dominated state government for most of the past three decades, sometimes with ‘Trifectas,’ but now he sees that Democrats have their own Trifecta for the first time in four decades. Huizenga also could be sending a message that he doesn’t like the direction of the present-day Michigan GOP, specifically of its MAGA wing. Do we know that he’s stopped giving money to Republicans completely? It’s early in the 2023-24 cycle. What will he do next year? It may depend on who’s running for what.
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Question 4); Is it likely that the line-up of speakers for the Michigan GOP’s upcoming Biennial ‘Leadership Conference’ on Mackinac Island will have a negative impact on turnout for the event? Speakers include Dinesh D’SOUZA, maker of the movie “2000 Mules,” and election deniers like charismatic Arizona Republican 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake, who ultimately lost.
Answer 4): Every two years going back nearly seven decades, the Michigan Republican Party has depended on luring its members to Mackinac Island (and the Grand Hotel, which is expensive) on a scintillating array of speakers, many of them top elected officeholders with national reputations. The shocking thing is that there appear to be no such speakers this year.
This should be the ideal time for many — if not all — of the 2024 presidential aspirants to beat a path to the Island. That’s what has happened many times over the years, including as recently as 2016. Not this year, at least so far. What has been announced are conservative ideologues (including D’Souza and Lake) who have never been elected to anything. They may be great speakers, but they won’t draw a crowd, particularly one that’s not as well-heeled as past attendees. The roster of speakers appears to be an attempt to entice the most hardcore MAGA conspiracy theorists to attend the event, but many of these folks won’t be able to afford the participation costs.
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Mike Rogers will find tough sledding in a MAGA-dominated GOP primary:
* Former FBI agent, an organization under attack by Trump, U.S. House Republicans and Fox News
* As chair of Homeland Security, he ran an investigation which cleared Hillary Clinton of culpability for the Benghazi loss of 4 Americans
* He’s unknown to most Michigan Republicans – out of the political spotlight for a decade (but a lot of money can fix this)
Rogers and Peter Meijer may be the preference of the non-crazy wing of the Republican Party, but the non-crazies aren’t running the show anymore.
IMike Rodgers(R) jumping into this race is great hope for, not only Michigan but for the United States. He’d be a tough person for Elissa Slotkin(D) to beat. He’s got a fantastic background and I’m glad to have him back!
The problem for Rogers is that the Michigan Republican Party is in shambles with dissension rampant. Unless he dons a bright red MAGA cap and is personally approved by the Donald personally he has zero chances at election and may not survive the primary against candidates like Nikki Snyder – who is polling only two points less against Slotkin in one of the earliest polling results reported in the race.
A second reason is the “browning of America” as it relates to Michigan. Florida Republicans have had success via close ties to Hispanic communities such as Cuban-Americans who have been the most active and loyal conservative activists. In Michigan however, the GOP have made little attempts at inroads into the Hispanic communities and are only starting to identify with Arab-American voters. Victor Diaz was the last Hispanic to serve as a vice-chair of the Michigan Republican Party leadership and there are currently very few Hispanics that remain prominent in Michigan GOP politics – one being Mexican-American Shane Hernandez of St. Clair County – who was a running mate to Tudor Dixon in 2022 in her failed run for governor. The Hispanic communities are growing in Michigan and number several hundred thousand.
Hispanic-Americans in Michigan are pragmatists and not ideologues, in general. If the GOP does not have anything to offer them, they cannot expected to receive their votes. The Rogers campaign team will have to promote themselves among Hispanic and other brown communities in this state. The recent meetings with the Arab-American mayor of Hamtramck and Tudor Dixon and also Michael Flynn have been met with chagrin by Democrats but underscore that these communities are open-minded and see opportunities to promote their agenda. Neither the Democrats nor GOP should pigeon-hole these minority communities during the next election cycle
Rogers is experienced and rational. Will those traits help or hurt in a Republican primary? What will he say about the 2020 election? What will he say about the charges against Trump? What will his position be on national anti-abortion legislation? It will be fascinating to watch if he is in the race.
My guess is the Republican Party in Michigan – who is rapidly becoming less and less relevant, will nominate some dork from the MAGA crowd. Sadly, the implosion of a once-important check on the Democratic mob rule is mostly gone for a generation.
Rogers is well-received by Michigan grassroots Republicans.
I do not see any of the declared candidates raising the funds to beat Rogers in a U.S. Senate primary.
The reason candidates like Kristina Karamo and Matt Deperno have received success within the Michigan GOP is the far cheaper convention process.
Should Rogers focus on tradition GOP talking points such as tax relief and education he will do well with Michigan voters at the primary and general election level.
Nice article, Bill.
WILL SLOTKIN vs. ROGERS IN 2024 DECIDE WHO CONTROLS U.S. SENATE? Michigan TV stations sure hope that it does!!!
Solid point on the Slotkin quote on Rogers, something any Rogers campaign will play over and over again. He should also point out her vote against the Born-Alive Abortion Survivors Protection Act of 2023. While it is a safe bet that during the campaign that Slotkin will emphasize her pro-abortion bona fides, a vote that allows a child who survives an abortion to literally die on the table so an abortionist can avoid a malpractice suit, it should put her on the defensive and make her self-characterization as a “moderate” or “centrist” seriously less tenable.
As for Rogers surviving a primary, if the populist/Trumpian wing of the MI GOP plays it right, they should not seriously challenge him. Rogers shouid get lots of donor class money, unless the likes J.C. Huizenga have decided their now Democrats. Hey, they might even go to Mackinac to push their guy.
If Ms Karamo’s intent is to build a multi-ethic populist GOP, giving Rogers more or less a pass is the smart thing to do. The truly Trumpian might scream, but even they will realize that a Senator Rogers will vote their way more often than a Senator Slotkin would. And a Rogers’ candidacy will keep the establishment wing busy and occupied. And if they don’t spend on and for Mike Rogers, even the most rigid “establishment” Republican should start to look askance at them. If the donor class sits the election out (like 2022) despite a Mike Rogers candidacy in November, then the MI GOP leadership – and their voters – knows who their enemies are.
As for abortion, if Rogers attacks Slotkin on voting against the Infant Born Alive Act, the GOP gains in east Dearborn should continue and they might see gains in Hamtramck. As suggested earlier in my response, that vote by her is truly extreme.
Anyways, it should be an exciting and interesting race. Who knows, it may make politics great again! At least for TV stations and the punditry. (Sorry, I tried to put a smiley face here, but it did not work).
Several points regarding Mike Rogers that will not endear him to the MAGA crowd that currently controls the Michigan Republican Party:
(A) Rogers has had a seat on the Atlantic Council’s board of directors which has been a key target of the anti-establishment wing of the GOP in Michigan politics;
(B) in an interview with CBS News four months ago, Rogers stated that he believed that Trump would no longer be candidate due to fundraising and other problems Trump was having.
The political center of the Michigan Republican Party represents a patchwork of John Birchers, Christian nationalists, anti-tax protestors, Tea Party activists and other non-traditional pro-MAGA elements that largely perceive Mike Rogers as a representative of the GOP insiders they have tried so hard to wrest control of the state party organization from.
Right now, polling results published by the Emerson organization in the 2024 Michigan U.S. Senate race shows Elissa Slotkin with a small lead (about 6%-10%) over declared candidates in the GOP. Mike Rogers is polling barely ahead of relative unknowns in the GOP race.
Elissa Slotkin is more likely to emerge from her crowded primary election in August 2024 as the victor than Mike Rogers in the GOP primary U.S. Senate election.
Love the questions and stimulating thoughts. Mike Rogers is a genuine good person, possibly to authentic to win in politics, but it would be so nice to find integrity again in the Republican Party. I certainly hope he runs and I hope he can succeed against Elissa Slotkin.
A Slotkin/Rogers matchup would give hope to those who would like to see a political race that is grounded in serious issues. Both of these people are extremely intelligent and gifted. If only we could have a roundtable discussion between the two of them (notice I didn’t say debate). It reminds me a little of one of the over-looked but most sterling political discussions I have ever been fortunate to see, the intellectual discussion over policy between Sen. Joe Liberman and Dick Cheney during the 2000 election.. A high point in American politics in the last forty years.
The “clown” parade of speakers at Mackinac tells you everything you need about Rogers’s chances next year- zero to nil
Good point.
If the populist wing now controlling the Michigan Republican Party does not support Mike Rogers – he cannot win in the general election, even if Rogers convinces GOP primary voters to hand him the nomination. Mike Rogers is affable, articulate, and experienced – however so is Peter Meijer, who is bitterly opposed by the populist wing.
So who is the populist wing and where are they prevalent?
Mark Forton, Macomb GOP chair and former Reform Party candidate is the spiritual godfather of the populist movement in Michigan – his blessing and endorsement of Kristina Karamo led to her election as Michigan GOP chairperson. Rolling Stone magazine did an impressively researched article on Forton’s background. About 70% of the precinct delegates in Macomb County support Forton and his politics – but most elected public officials in that county support traditional Republican insiders.
Oakland County has some degree of populist elements – but traditional GOP insiders largely control the political center of the county party apparatus.
A major strength of GOP populism is the rural outstate vote – although these counties do not deliver manty delegates to the GOP state conventions they nevertheless control are wide physical area of the state and serve as a backbone to populist elements from Metro Detroit and other population centers.
Mike Rogers needs to get these populists on his side or he will likely suffer the same electoral fate as Rep. Peter Meijer did in 2022.
As a moderately conservative Republican, I am strongly encouraged by the Candidacy of Mike Rogers for U.S. Senate, David Richards, and Mark Koroi have succinctly stated my points and Dennis Muchmore-you are so right this campaign could be one of serious issues
Maybe Mike can rebuilt the Michigan GOP after the
Trump implosion reaches its maximum intensity! Highly Doubtful ……..
Laughing out Loud !
Elissa Slotkin is driving Democratic voters away and the question is will they support Rogers instead.
Rep. Elissa Slotkin’s hurdles:
(A) she will likely beat progressive black Democrat Hill Harper in holly-contested primary election in 2024 – then she as a moderate will have to woo the progressive and black vote in the general election;
(B) she will have to convince hundreds of thousands of registered Arab-American Democrats to support her in the general election after defeating Nasser Beydoun, the first Arab Muslim to run for the U.S. Senate in Michigan – while she is receiving massive AIPAC support;
(C) she will have to convince sizeable percentages of outstate voters to support her candidacy – despite residing in Oakland County.