Question 1): In a surprise, Presidential candidate Robert F. KENNEDY, Jr., announced last week that he’ll appear on Michigan’s November 5 general election ballot as the nominee of the obscure Natural Law Party.
Kennedy, the scion of one of America’s most famous Democratic families, had been in the process of collecting the 12,000 signatures needed to get on the ballot as an “Independent” candidate, but with this end-run he is now freed from going through that process by becoming the nominee of a “third party.” There are four “third” or “splinter” parties in Michigan — Libertarian, Green, U.S. Taxpayers, and Working Class. They can nominate candidates by convention without having to gather signatures on petitions.
Kennedy’s running mate is Nicole Shanahan, an unknown Californian from Silicon Valley with deep pockets.
Founded in 1992, the Natural Law Party was created on the principles of using Transcendental Meditation to create a “Unified Field” of the laws of nature. In current political parlance, the party has an eclectic mix of positions on key issues, somewhat like Kennedy himself. For instance, it’s for low taxes but has a strong stance on environmental issues much like the Green Party. It is anti-abortion, tough on crime, for sustainable organic agriculture, dove-like on foreign policy, and strongly supportive of political reform by ending PACs and soft money, and banning lobbying by former public officials. Will all this be part of Kennedy’s agenda? No, but some of it will. Overall, he’ll rely on the mystique of the Kennedy name, not Natural Law’s platform, for votes.
Natural Law largely dissolved as a party starting in 2004, but is still active in Michigan and several other states and foreign countries. Kennedy is also on the ballot in Utah. His campaign claims it has collected the signatures needed to be on the ballot in New Hampshire, Nevada, Hawaii, North Carolina, Idaho, Nebraska and Idaho.
The Natural Law presidential nominee in 2020 was a man named Rocky De La FUENTE, who received 2,986 votes (.05 percent) in Michigan. The 2016 nominee, Emidio Mimi SOLTYSIK, didn’t do much better – 2,209 votes (.05 percent) in Michigan.
MIRS newsletter reported that Natural Law’s Michigan party chairman, Doug Dern, was ecstatic at landing Kennedy as its presidential nominee. “He’s the most qualified candidate in the modern-day history of America,” said Dern. “We welcome Mr. Kennedy and Ms. Shanahan to the party.”
The Kennedy campaign claims it has a “robust ballot access plan” to make sure the Kennedy-Shanahan ticket is on the ballot in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, according to MIRS. “We have the field teams, volunteers, legal teams, paid circulators, supporters and strategists ready to get the job done,” said campaign press secretary Stefanie SPEAR.
So, what about this? Will Kennedy actually make it onto the November ballot? Already, former Michigan Democratic Party Chairman Mark Brewer has announced he has been recruited by a national pro-Joe Biden group to mount a legal challenge to Kennedy’s attempt to qualify as the Natural Law presidential nominee in Michigan. A wide swath of the Kennedy Family rallied around Biden last week, endorsing him and denouncing their relative’s candidacy. Does that mean Democrats are afraid Kennedy could play the role of “spoiler” in Michigan, as did Libertarian Gary Johnson and the Green Party’s Jill Stein in 2016? How strong a vote-getter is Kennedy likely to be in Michigan, anyway? Are Kennedy’s chances in Michigan hurt by being the nominee of a fringe party rather than an Independent? Could he hurt Republican Donald Trump as much or more than Biden?
Answer 1): The Democrats should be afraid, very afraid. Kennedy’s candidacy has to be taken seriously if he makes the ballot, regardless of how he gets there. For example, Marketing Resource Group released polling last week showing Kennedy at 13 percent in Michigan, behind Republican Donald TRUMP (37 percent) and President Joe BIDEN (34 percent). Green Party nominee Jill STEIN was at 2 percent, former Harvard/Princeton professor Cornel West was at 1 percent, “Someone Else” was 3 percent, and 8 percent were undecided. This was an April 8-11 survey taken of 600 likely Michigan voters and had a +/- 4 percent margin of error. Mark Brewer’s entry into the fray shows that the Democrats are really worried, because Kennedy’s name alone makes him potentially a bigger threat to one of the two major parties’ nominees than were Gary Johnson, Stein, John Anderson (in 1980), Strom Thurmond (in 1948), or even Ross Perot or George Wallace, for that matter. We might have to go back to Teddy Roosevelt in 1912 to find any ‘third party’ candidate with the potential to be as disruptive as Kennedy could be. Are Republicans just as worried? Apparently not as much.
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Question 2): Attorney General Dana Nessel last week charged former state House Speaker Lee CHATFIELD with 13 counts related to his fundraising and nonprofits, but the investigation related to the alleged sexual assault of his sister-in-law Nessel said was closed. As the MIRS newsletter reported, Nessel said if it were not for the sister-in-law, Rebekah CHATFIELD, stepping forward more than two years ago with issues regarding the former Speaker, there likely wouldn’t be charges against Chatfield today.
“We commend Rebekah … for bravery and her courage and stepping forward to tell her story,” Nessel said during her press conference, noting that her office’s “exhaustive” investigation “failed to produce evidence, proof, or a reasonable doubt standard” to bring charges.
Nessel also announced that Chatfield’s wife, Stephanie CHATFIELD, was also charged as part of the fundraising investigation, which will continue. Nessel did not rule out the possibility of additional charges.
The stolen money allegedly funded Lee Chatfield’s luxury shopping, fine dining, and extended vacations in “swanky hotels.” Transactions also included family vacations to Universal Studios in Orlando, Florida, and a trip to the Bahamas as well as paying the former Speaker’s personal credit card bill, according to Nessel.
Nessel said Lee Chatfield is also charged with multiple counts of embezzlement from a nonprofit organization, among other offenses.
Nessel said Lee Chatfield’s fundraising efforts raised over $5 million in six years and more than $2 million in his final year via the Pensinsula Fund, a social welfare organization that is “commonly used as a political slush fund.”
Late last year, Nessel charged two top Chatfield aides, Rob MINARD and Anné MINARD, who are due back in 54-B District Court on May 2 (See “Minards Arraigned, Released With No Bond Set,” 1/3/24 and “AG Charges Ex-Chatfield Staffers With Felonies,” 12/21/23). The Minard couple each face charges of conducting a criminal enterprise, conspiracy to commit that crime, and false pretenses, embezzlement, filing a false tax return, and three counts of false pretenses. Anné Minard is also charged with two additional counts each of embezzlement and false pretenses, while her husband is charged with one additional count of false pretenses.
But note that Nessel said her investigation of Chatfield is “ongoing” and that it’s conceivable it won’t be wrapped up by the time she leaves office at the end of 2026. There could indeed be additional charges between now and then.
Also, Nessel decried Michigan’s “lax” campaign finance laws, and she and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson testified before the state House Committee on Ethics and Oversight the very next day to urge the panel to move swiftly on sweeping reforms to “weak” state statutes that have earned Michigan a ranking near dead last among the 50 states in campaign finance governance. That perception was only reinforced by reports that came out last week on individual state officers’ financial disclosures mandated by Proposal 1 of 2022. The 2023 Legislature then did as little to flesh out Prop 1 statutorily as it could.
So, where will this slow-rolling legal extravaganza end? And how will it end” Are there unresolved or unanswered questions that may never be addressed? And how likely is it that the Legislature will do anything this year to address the problems Nessel and Benson addressed?
Answer 2): The extravaganza won’t end any time soon, and God knows HOW it might end, but we shouldn’t expect anything much. Here’s how campaign finance/election law guru Bob LaBrant, now retired in Perry, reacted to Nessel’s actions last week:
“First, Nessel brought no charges against former Senate Majority Leader Mike Shirkey, even after investigators compiled reams of evidence against him showing that he was the mastermind behind the illegal funding of the ballot question committee, Unlock Michigan. Shirkey solicited corporations in person, over the phone, at meetings and in emails urging them to contribute, not directly to Unlock Michigan, but to two 501 C 4 organizations, which in turn contributed to Unlock Michigan, hiding their true identity from public disclosure. Heather Lombardini, who handled the logistics of collecting the illegal funds, faces two misdemeanors for failing to register and report those 501 C 4s as a ballot question committee and a felony charge for falsely filing an affidavit under oath. Sandy Baxter, a fundraising consultant to Michigan! My Michigan! was charged with perjury.
“Nessel at her news conference railed about how weak, how useless the Michigan Campaign Finance Act is. Contributions to the Peninsula Fund are not illegal, but, as demonstrated by the current investigation, the Peninsula Fund operated illegally. Were there any ‘pay to play’ implications? Once Nessel’s ongoing investigation is completed, at the very least she should issue a Dark Money report disclosing the identities of the contributors over $5,000 to the Peninsula Fund, Michigan Citizens for Fiscal Responsibility, and Michigan! My Michigan! Perhaps such a report will convince the legislature to act.”
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John Stewart says
With the entire Kennedy family completely endorsing Biden this past week it would appear that RFK Junior has been left out in the cold alone. My guess is the Democrats will make sure he is nowhere near a factor that Ralph Nader was in 2000.
Lee Chatfield and his corrupt money laundering is way beyond my imagination, and it certainly appears like the attorney general has substantive facts to prosecute just unbelievably immoral
With my tongue and cheek, please remember Dana Nessel is a Plymouth attorney. She’s been living here for probably 15 years. I’ve been in the same law office on Main Street in Plymouth and house in Plymouth Township for 40 years as of this.
Tim Sullivan says
In some circles, John, politics trumps family.
Manuela Garza says
The fact that the Kennedy clan supports Joe Biden says reams about why we should not care what they have to say.
I would prefer to see Cornel West, Jill Stein or RFK, Jr rule this nation as its president than the Democratic National Committee which is the most powerful political force a along with AIPAC.
Leanne says
QUESTION #1:
The RFK, Jr. campaign organization has tried to recruit Michigan GOP leaders and activists to its own cause – and some have defected over to that third-party campaign. Some GOP supporters have compared RFK, Jr. with Ron Paul for his anti-government, pro-citizen ideologies.
Many segments of the Dems and GOP in Michigan have been disgruntled by both Biden and Trump campaigns and want an alternative. Cornel West and Jill Stein have not achieved the name recognition of RFK, Jr. despite some popular positions.
Jewish-American Jill Stein, the Green Party presidential nominee, received a warm welcome recently in Dearborn addressing Arab-American attendees at a rally by lambasting Joe Biden and his Gaza policies. Cornel West likewise did several months ago. Stein and West can be expected to siphon off significant percentages of Arab-American votes that Biden relied upon to win Michigan in 2020. That, coupled with RFK, Jr.’s staunchly pro-Israel policy, will result in more dilution of Biden’s constituent voting base, as many Jewish-Americans have been disaffected by his failure to give full unquestioning support to the Israeli government in its invasion of Gaza to root out terror elements.
Progressive Democrats and other leftist elements are organizing a massive “1968-style” demonstration at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago that will bring together dozens of diverse groups opposed to Biden’s policies.
Should Donald Trump be convicted and jailed in any pending case, i have little doubt that many Trump, anti-Biden and progressive voters will turn to RFK, Jr. as an acceptable alternative. Genocide Joe has infuriated many Democrats by sitting on his hands as the carnage and conflict in Gaza and Israel continues to proliferate. He is promoting a record $19-billion aid package to Israel as his administration has criticized its Gaza operation.
Question #2:
The Hamtramck Review recently announced in an article that investigators from Attorney General Dana Nessel’s office are looking into a massive vote fraud scheme that trafficked in absentee ballots that were improperly filled out and were harvested and deposited en masse into a drop box. it is believed that the scheme targeted recent immigrants whose absentee ballots were filled out by others. In 2013, a similar scheme in Hamtramck resulted in felony convictions in cases brought by then-A.G. Bill Schuette.
Some are questioning why Dana Nessel’s targeting of Lee Chatfield has gotten so much publicity when the ongoing vote problems in Hamtramck are minimized. Why has MSP not conducted the Hamtramck investigation? Was it because Nessel has strong ties to Democratic politicians in Hamtramck and she wants to make sure the investigation is fully under the control of her office?
The Chatfields should be given the administratively neutral investigatory posture as the suspects in Hamtramck.
Manuela Garza says
I believe that we may be witnessing the end of the candidacy of Donald Trump if he is convicted in New York.
The RNC needs to use their powers to remove him from the ballot and allow Nikki Haley to accept the nomination
Royal says
Spot on Bill!
Wrt Q#1: I suspect RFK Jr’s impact will diminish as time rolls on, like most 3rd parties do. But heck, if he pulls even 1%, that may be enough in a tight race like MI is likely to be. Actually, I like the Natural party plank as you describe it . . . a lot.
wrt Q#2: Even the excruciating left biased, “Off The Record” implied this dark money practice is common in MI and a large majority of the MI legislature (2/3?) should be indicted. Perhaps more Dems than Repubs. So, once again, how many ways can we invoke the 2 tiered system of lawfare? Frivolous (spaghetti against the wall) law suits are fine as long as they are aimed at Repubs to go through the legal gauntlets first.
Caesar is having his heyday.
Woot woot Bill
Mark M Koroi says
There is a lot to like about the Natural Law Party’s platform – but it has NEVER achieved the electoral popularity of the Libertarians or Green Party.
There is a perception they owe their continued existence as a “ballot-access party”
Tim Sullivan says
Nice article, Bill. It does raise some other questions that will be answered over the next few months and will be fodder for more TBRs.
QUESTION 1: The entry of Bobby Kennedy Jr. immediately makes the election more interesting. People will discover there actually is a Natural Law Party in Michigan. If his presence makes the polling results tighter in Michigan, political advertising over all media will go up. TV station owners and operators must be smiling and so should most Michiganders, though not for the same reasons. The more in play Michigan is, the more the candidates need to address our issues. And that is good. Not just for the national aspects of the election in Michigan, but also the down ticket races as well. The more incumbents and candidates are looked at, that’s good as well, though maybe not for all the candidates.
Of particular note is your comments in paragraph 9: WILL KENNEDY ACTUALLY MAKE IT ONTO THE NOVEMBER BALLOT? ALREADY, FORMER MICHIGAN DEMOCRATIC PARTY CHAIRMAN MARK BREWER HAS ANNOUNCED HE HAS BEEN RECRUITED BY A NATIONAL PRO-JOE BIDEN GROUP TO MOUNT A LEGAL CHALLENGE TO KENNEDY’S ATTEMPT TO QUALIFY AS THE NATURAL LAW PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE IN MICHIGAN.
We now know what “protecting our democracy means”, keeping some people off the ballot. Thanks guys.
As for the Democrats being more concerned than the GOP, this might be the first time in some time that the GOP is not doing something stupid. Polling data shows Kennedy taking votes from both Trump and Biden, but if the Democrats are the ones going after Kennedy, and paying the bills for it, the GOP benefits. If the Democrats succeed, “protecting our democracy” will be shown as a sham; the voters Kennedy draws from Biden are likely to remain very pissed (which is why they are supporting Bobby in the first place) and even less likely to vote for Biden; and it costs the GOP nothing. If Brewer fails, the same points hold true. Ah, making politics interesting again. Well done!
QUESTON 2 – The charges against Chatfield are serious and if true, he should remain a resident of MDOC for quite a long time. Not bringing the sex charges against him, may be indicative that they feel a “he said” “she said” case would not help in prosecuting the political corruption case, so leave it alone. For now. If he is a “guest” of MDOC, he’s not going anywhere.
The issue on campaign finance and public disclosure of money going to politicians is interesting, over and above getting Bob LaBrant more than a wee bit angry. The bill passed by the legislature required of them under Proposal 1 is the absolute bare minimum they could do. And this is being more than generous to them. No reporting on familial (spouse) wealth, and no serious attempt to create any sort of real disclosure. What was interesting in today’s Freep, is the lack of disclosure coming from SOS Benson and AG Nessel. Mike Shirkey would be proud. Whether they are trying to make a point that the legislature needs to do better or not, I will leave for those who know both Benson and Nessel better than I do.
As for Proposal 1, it was simply a tool to ease term limits and the people bought the trade-off. And the people have been screwed as a result. Now whether we learn from this is or not remains to be seen.
As for Bob LaBrant’s hope that the legislature will now act, it will probably happen when I regrow hair on my head and it comes back in my natural brown.
Edward D Callaghan says
Spot on analysis by Bob LaBrant.
Cheryl L. Krapf-Haddock says
Personal Opinion Regarding Rob Minard…..,,,
Rob Minard is a very dear person to me. He ran the campaign of Dick DeVos when he ran for Michigan Governor. Rob went on to work for the Trafalgar Group in Washington DC.
Myself and my husband also hired Rob for my House Campaign here in Michigan.
I will say, without hesitation, I don’t believe the charges against him because he really is that good, Rob has stellar skills and he’s always lived ia nice life because of his hard work and hard work and dedication.
In no way do I believe that he had anything to do with taking money nor did his wife Anne.
I believe that they were targeted and their life completely ruined without question in my mind. Just because people work hard and are excellent at what they do there is no need for a State Official to target them for being a Conservative Republican with patriotic values.
I’ve seen no proof nor has the AG released proof of this as I’ve seen or heard of.
I truly believe this a a targeted attack.
Judging people whom you don’t know,
as I’ve experienced to some degree, is incredibly sad.
Leanne says
Welcome to a weaponized A.G. office in Michigan.
Nothing new here. Why was the Muskegon voter registration case never pursued?
What about the charges facing Daire Rendon, Matt DePerno, Kathy Berden and Stanley Grot – just to name a few? Current MIGOP Vice-Chair Marian Sheridan is also facing criminal charges.
Rumors are that other Michigan GOP activists are being looked at for possible charges.
And frankly, the Hamtramck investigation is ae enigma. Is Nessel targeting city leaders who opposed her LGBT positions – or is she trying to protect fellow Dems?
These criminal investigations of political activists and leaders are unprecedented for the State of Michigan.They are uncalled for.
Dan Murphy says
Is it merely speculation to believe that the Ross Perot third Party candidacy in 1992 paved the path for the eventual Progressive ideological take over of the Democratic Party ? President Bush was being , challenged by the largely unknown Bill Clinton. Ross Perot drew votes away from the favored Candidate , Bush which ultimately led to the Clinton’s Presidency . Progressivism expanded its power through future Administrations as the Republican Party’s Leadership and influence diminished greatly. The Democratic Party of J.F.K. no longer exists. The rejection of Robert Kennedy Jr. by the Kennedy Klan and Their total endorsement of Mr. Biden far left ideology confirms that the J.F.K Era would also be rejected soundly.
Leanne says
In my mind, Clinton winning in 1992 and 1996 would have been a lot harder without H. Ross Perot.
George H. W. Bush barely won his home state of Texas in 1992 over Clinton 42%-40% which he had won in a landslide in 1988.
Manuela Garza says
RFK. Jr. made a tactical error in embracing Israel and its response to October 7th.
Perhaps he did not want to fight with Cornel West or Jill Stein over the pro-Gaza voters and wanted to target the dyed-in -the-wool pro-Israel element that does not embrace either Biden or Trump
Whuffagowie says
I welcome RFK Jr. to the ballot for one reason only. A vote for RFK Jr. is a vote for Donald J. Trump. TDS is real and illogical. Liberalism is a mental disorder. The fear of Trump will drive his enemies crazy, they hope he will lose his secret service protection and get shanked in a moldy shower in a federal prison. A law to do exactly that has been introduced. Hang onto your bloomers for the wild ride!
Mark M Koroi says
The Natural Law Party HQ in Michigan is in a small law office in Hartland, MI.It has become known in Michigan as the “ballot access party.”
It’s chairman, Douglas Dern is an attorney practicing bankruptcy and drunk driving law.
After a two-person convention, RFK, Jr was nominated. RFK, Jr. reportedly eschewed using the Libertarian Party for ballot access
Manuela Garza says
There is no doubt that RFK, Jr. will impact the presidential race – but it will be a net gain for Biden in all likelihood.
Trump fashioned his presidential run in 2016 on being a maverick with controversial beliefs – just as RFK, Jr is doing today.
RFK, Jr has a controversial background with a drug arrest in 1983 other problems – Trump likewise has been embroiled in legal proceedings.
There have been violence and mass arrests on our college campuses in recent days – and Joe Biden is silent. He is silent on Gaza as well – he has evinced no leadership whatsoever as our president.
The heroes are the supporters of the “Uncommitted” movement. Our national party-driven leadership is so bad in this country, Americans should be ashamed to have to admit that the Democratic National Committee is the true government in power right now as opposed to our paralyzed U.S. Congress and ineffective president. The students of Columbia University as in 1968 are likewise courageous at fighting a corrupt and manipulated system of government.
The fact that $19 billion is going to Israel in a recent Congressional aid package is disgusting as it will fuel more war crimes.
We have a CIA officer and FBI agent as the frontrunners in our Michigan U.S. Senate race. This is unacceptable. Our government should be ruled by ordinary citizens as opposed to national security insiders. AIPAC is going to pump $60 million into the Elissa Slotkin campaign – is this buying an election or what?
Maybe the Natural Law Party would do a better job of running our country after all.
Manuela Garza says
Another sad development is the announced withdrawal of the U.S. Senate candidacy of Peter Meijer – a politician with a sense of decency and of placing integrity over political expediency.
Mark M Koroi says
Peter Meijer’s withdrawal was not unexpected – he was polling far behind Mike Rogers.
Among traditional GOP insiders, there was nothing wrong with Peter Meijer as a GOP nominee. He was respected fully as a competent officeholder – but the MAGA elements were too strong in opposition.