Question 1): With the January 26 entrance of billionaire businessman Perry Johnson into the race for the Republican gubernatorial nomination, how much have the fortunes of the other candidates changed? How is Johnson himself faring?
Answer 1): Money talks, at least at this juncture of the campaign. After spending $13.5 million in a media blitz beginning Super Bowl week-end and extending at least till April 7, an independent poll by an outside group shows Johnson surging, although he’s not yet in the lead. A highly regarded firm (JMC Analytics & Polling of Baton Rouge, Louisiana) shows him narrowly trailing U.S. Rep. John James (R-MI 10), who had been the runaway frontrunner in the race before Johnson’s entry. JMC polling was one of the few that boldly forecast Donald Trump’s presidential victory in 2024 after polling and monitoring other surveys for months leading up to the election two years ago.
Specifically, the JMC poll showed John James with 23% support; Perry Johnson: 20%; Mike Cox: 6%; Aric Nesbitt: 5%; Tom Leonard: 3%; and Undecided/Don’t know/Refused to Answer at a whopping 44%. The sample of 450 likely primary voters was conducted March 21-23 and has a 4.6% margin of error, meaning Johnson and James are effectively tied.
Needless to say, Johnson trumpeted the poll’s findings. “My message of using my MEGA Audit to cut spending and my 4747 plan to eliminate the state income tax and reform property taxes has caught on with voters. We begin our bus tour and head to the state convention (yesterday, Saturday, March 28) with great momentum!”
John Couvillon, JMC’s CEO, summed up his poll’s findings this way:
“JMC Analytics and Polling (who is not affiliated with any candidate running for Governor) commissioned this poll for marketing/promotional purposes for the Republican primary race for Governor of Michigan.
“There are three main takeaways from this poll: (1) In the Republican primary race for the governor, businessman/author Perry Johnson is running neck and neck with Congressman John James, (2) There is a fairly high undecided percentage in this race, and (3) Eliminating fraud, waste, and abuse is by far the top issue among likely Republican primary voters.
“In the Governor’s race, John James has a 23-20% lead over Perry Johnson that is comfortably within the statistical margin of error. No other candidate polls more than 6%, and 44% are undecided.
“Examining the race in more detail shows that Congressman James’s poll showing (despite his two prior statewide runs) is shaky: (1) Most of James’ lead comes from people who are not certain that they will vote in the Republican primary (James polls 19-13% among this demographic), while those who definitely plan to vote are only 23-21% for James; (2) A strong plurality/near majority of Michigan Republicans classify themselves as Trump/MAGA Republicans, and among this group, Johnson has a 24-20% lead over Congressman James. Self-described traditional/establishment Republicans are 30-15% for James over Johnson; and (3) In the three major media markets (Detroit, Grand Rapids/Kalamazoo, and Flint/Saginaw) that comprise 77% of the Republican primary electorate, the race is already and consistently within the statistical margin of error in each of those three media markets (in fact, James’ lead in those three markets in the aggregate is an even tighter 23-22%).
“Of the Republican candidates whose approval ratings were tested, James has the highest (79%) name recognition of those who have an opinion of him, and his favorability rating is 55-24%. Despite his relatively recent entry into the race, Perry Johnson’s name recognition is 66%, with a 45-21% favorability. Former Attorney General Mike Cox has 47% name recognition, and it’s 33-15% favorable/unfavorable. Neither Tom Leonard nor Aric Nesbitt have favorable + unfavorable name recognition exceeding 23%.
“When asked about their most important issue, a fairly strong plurality of primary voters (32%) chose elimination of fraud, waste, and abuse. In second place (at 19%) is property tax reform, which is statistically tied with ensuring secure elections (18%). No other issue polled more than 6%. Among Trump/MAGA Republicans, the numbers were 35% for eliminating fraud/waste/abuse, 24% for secure elections, and 22% for property tax reform.
“In summary, the Republican primary race for Governor promises to be competitive, with two candidates (John James and Perry Johnson) comfortably ahead of other contenders and in a statistical tie.”
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Question 2): How did Michigan Republicans fare at their state endorsement convention in Novi yesterday (Saturday, March 28)? Did they enhance their chances of victory in the November 3 general election?
Answer 2): They did as well as they could have hoped, but their nominees for a plethora of offices still face an uphill struggle in the fall as they run as Republicans led by an increasingly unpopular president, Donald Trump. Unless Trump’s standing with the electorate improves dramatically, or the party’s two nominees for Governor and U.S. Senator at the top of the ticket (to be determined in the 8/4 GOP primary) perform unexpectedly well, all Republicans will be running at a distinct disadvantage.
Specifically, Republicans dodged a bullet when they rejected weak candidates for the only two contested offices — Secretary of State And Attorney General — and instead nominated Macomb County Clerk Anthony FORLINI and Eaton Co. Prosecuting Attorney Doug Lloyd, who may have a fighting chance to win November.
Forlini was in a three-person party race for SoS with Monica YATOOMA – a critic of Michigan’s elections systems and the deputy chief executive officer of Metro Detroit Medical Waste – and Amanda LOVE, who was an assistant to previous Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land. Forlini received 55.19% of the vote, Yatooma gained 25.36 %, and Love finished with 19.45 %.
For A.G., Lloyd defeated Birmingham attorney Kevin KIJEWSKI, 63.2% to 36.8%, or by 531 votes.
For two seats on the Michigan Supreme Court, the delegates supported Oakland Co. 6th Circuit Court Judge Michael Warren and Oscoda County Probate Judge Casandra Morse-Bills. They’ll challenge two Democratic-nominated justices with the incumbency designation beneath their names on the ballot: Justice Megan Cavanagh and Justice Noah Hood. Democrats currently have a 6-1 majority on the court.
Republicans also endorsed activist and small business owner Bree Moeggenberg of Mount Pleasant and financial analyst Terence Collins of Grosse Pointe Park for two seats on the State Board of Education.
For two seats on the Michigan State University Board of Trustees, the delegates backed state Sen. Roger Victory of Hudsonville and former Novi City Council member Julie Maday.
For two seats on the University of Michigan Board of Regents, they supported Lena Epstein, co-owner of Vesco Oil Corporation and a former U.S. House candidate from Bloomfield Hills, and Michael Schostak, a Bloomfield Township trustee and cousin of former state GOP chairman Bobby Schostak.
The Republicans also chose Andy Anuzis of Brighton and Christa Murphy of Troy for two seats on the Wayne State University Board of Governors. Anuzis, a longtime party activist and scion of the state’s Lithuanian community, is the principal of Lincoln-King High School, and Murphy is on the board of directors at Vibe Credit Union.
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John james was booed yesterday. I was there. FRANK MAMAT
Perry Johnson looks creepy. His ads will turn off most of the electorate.
Polling done with 600 people is horrible. Also polls that talk to people with home phones and not cell. At this point they mean nothing. I recall Snyder had very low polling before he moved up and won.
Mr. Ballenger;
It was an honor to be at the Convention in Novi. I served as an Alternate Delegate & an Auditor for the Hand Count. Great process.
The win of Doug Lloyd and Anthony Forlini was amazing. They are individually strong on the ticket of the Michigan GOP. They are both very good for Michigan, no question.
The Gubernatorial Candidates are very crowded still but we’ll see in time. Many Candidates were present at Convention and it’s a very important race to continue to watch.
Overall, a fantastic GOP Convention!
Cheryl K-H
Legislation is now pending to move the state primary election from early August to early May, effective after this year.
Ohio and Indiana, among other states, already have May primaries. Illinois and Wisconsin primaries are even earlier.
This change has been sought by election officials for years, given the time crunch between resolving (and sometimes recounting) the August primary and preparing ballots for the November election.
Plus, the state constitution now requires random precinct audits after every statewide election, including primaries. Auditing the primary isn’t possible in the current schedule. Moving the primary earlier will make it possible to carry out the audit mandate.
Despite the mutual hostility and distrust between the two chambers, this bill is moving forward with at least covert support from both political parties’ leadership. It has passed the Senate, and is expected to pass the House, probably during the lame duck session.
Both parties have established “endorsement conventions” to give their downballot state candidates an early start — but they still have to wait for August to learn who the main nominees are.
If the primary date changes, then the “endorsement conventions” should go away, in favor of mid-May party nominating conventions. This will allow precinct delegates ELECTED IN THE SAME YEAR to participate in those decisions.
John James announced for Governor 59 days after he was elected to Congress.
Reportedly, his children are enrolled in the Rockford School District.
I’m willing to be corrected regarding the above two statements.
Nice article, Bill, and a good appearance on OTR?
QUESTION 1: Will the GOP nominate Perry Johnson? First of all, he needs real signatures. Assuming he gets those, if he wins the primary, it will be because the GOP electorate wants to lose. His idea on eliminating the state income tax is bat scat crazy. He apparently expects an audit to find billions and billions in waste, fraud and abuse. Not bloody likely. Though in fairness to Mr. Johnson, I did see a commercial of his saying that boys do not belong in girls’ sports. Whether this is a throw away add or part of a deeper plan, I don’t know. I’ll leave that to those who know him.
Let’s look at waste. Waste is usually defined as money I don’t want to spend. It’s not that the program isn’t useful, it’s that some politicians don’t like that particular program or wish to spend the money elsewhere. An interesting history lesson to explain my point. Look at the US Constitution. Article I, section 8, clause 11 gives Congress the authority to grant “Letters of Marque and Reprisal”, that is to create privateers (state sanctioned pirates). Two clauses later, the Constitution says Congress … ”provide and maintain a Navy”. The Democratic-Republicans under Thomas Jefferson thought a navy was wasteful and fought it tooth and nail. And even when the piratical acts of the Barbary pirates forced the issue, the Jeffersonians still did their best to cripple the navy, insisting that the shipbuilding stop if someone else did in the Barbary pirates for us. They failed there, but did succeed in having many of the frigates less well armed than originally planned. If you recall your US history, the USS Chesapeake fought the HMS Shannon off Boston Harbor. The Chesapeake was supposed to be a sister ship of the USS Constitution (44 guns officially, more in reality) but it had only 38. To stop waste. HMS Shannon beat the Chesapeake. Waste-busters at work!
Of the three, fraud is the easiest to define: someone does something illegal to get money they are not entitled to have. The problem with this, the monies be defrauded are not all state monies. A lot of the money is Federal bucks and savings there do NOT reflect on Michigan appropriations. And anyway, this amount is usually variable as some frauds are more extensive than other frauds, and it really does not appear that we have Minnesota level fraud here. But the Michigan savings will be a small fraction of the money that’s determined to be stolen. If fraud is his big thing, it’s best he identify it now so it can be prosecuted.
Abuse is a sibling of waste. It is in the eye of the beholder. Usually, it’s a case of wanting to spend money elsewhere. John Engler was a master at that. How many “wasteful” or “abusive” programs felt his axe to fund tax cuts. And told get me started on his restructuring of government. Since the State has made it hard to access the D*STARS records, you’ll need someone with inside access to look up the case of Nancy Hammond a good and skilled person who served both GOP and Democrat governors but was in the way. As for Mr. Johnson, until he defines what “abuse” he has seen over the past eight or more years of planning to become governor, one should take his claims with more than a few grains of salt.
In reading TBR and the ensuing comments, it seems that Mr. James has treated his nomination as a sure thing. Mr. Johnson’s money has changed that. Whether he ups his game or not remains to be seen. Running for office is hard work. Unless you’re a Kennedy in Massachusetts, you gotta earn it. Perry Johnson is hoping that John James has forgotten that lesson.
QUESTION 2: I really don’t know any of the folks you named. I have heard of Judge Warren and Mr. Forlini outside of write-ups in TBR, but that’s it. I will leave it to those who do know them if they feel these are strong, weak or sacrificial candidates. I just hope for a lively discussion on what they feel is wrong in the office they are seeking and how they will fix it.
That said, if they are going to win, they will need money, light and dark. Dark money has flowed in rivers in recent years, but usually towards the Democrats. In the March 16, 2026 edition of “Washington Examiner”, Robert Schmad quoted Robert Maguire, vice president of research and data for Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington as saying; “ONE THING IN PARTICULAR THAT I’VE GOT MY EYE ON IS THE FACT THAT CORPORATIONS SEEM TO BE DIVING INTO POLITICS IN A WAY THAT THEY HAVEN’T IN A LONG TIME…THE THING ABOUT DARK MONEY THAT’S CONVENIENT FOR THEM … IS THAT THEY HAVE A VEHICLE FOR GIVING MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF MONEY WHERE THE PEOPLE WHO ARE BENEFITING FROM THAT DARK MONEY KNOW EXACTLY WHO IS GIVING TO THE CAUSE, BUT THE PUBLIC DOESN’T.” Mr. Schmad later quotes Parker Thayer, an investigative researcher for the Capital Research Center as saying: “THERE ARE A LOT OF POSSIBLE EXPLANATIONS, BUT THEY ALL REVOLVE AROUND THE AXIOM THAT BIG MONEY WILL BE INVOLVED IN POLITICS AS LONG AS BIG GOVERNMENT IS INVOLVED IN MONEY, AND TO A LIKE DEGREE.”
Both Mr. Maguire and Mr. Thayer are right. But whether any of that money makes its way to Michigan, I have no idea. But it will be fodder for more TBRs this election year and make illuminating reading for all of us.
As we enter Holy Week, I wish all the TBR readers a Happy Passover and Happy Easter!
Oops. That should be a period instead of a question mark in my first sentence. My computer and typing skills strike again! Mea culpa, mea culpa, mea maxima culpa especially to Mrs. Brenner, my 9th grade typing teacher.
I was in Novi for the convention – it was the smoothest GOP state convention I seen in years. MIGOP Chairman Jim Runestad and Administrative Vice-Chair Cheryl Costantino merit kudos for a well-run election by delegates.
In the Secretary of State race it was clear that TAnthony Forlini’s Lansing esatblishment connections and his long record of meritorious service in the Michigan Legislature and as Macomb County Clerk made him the favorite to receive the endorsement nod.
The night prior to the convention, Forlini had a dinner with his supporters and emphasized that he wanted to see the race decided if possible on the first delegate electoral ballot – there was an apprehension flowing though his supporters that if he did not receive a majority of delegate votes on that first ballot that an eliminated SOS candidate could endorse his remaining opponent and deliver that remaining candidate to victory. Forlini’s 55% showing prevented that possibility despite the expectation of many that the SOS race would extend beyond a first ballot.
Forlini’s opponents’ actions damaged any chances they had at victory:
(A) the night before the convention, Monica Yatooma sponsored a dinner and music event at the Vibe Center that prematurely ran out of food;
(B) Yatooma and Love supporters during the campaign sniped at each other’s candidate opponent – and both candidates spent considerable time sending out e-mails to delegates to dispute the attacks instead of focusing upon SOS issues and qualifications as Mr. Forlini did.
The Michigan Attorney General race had Doug Lloyd outspend Kevin Kijewski – and touted his long history of electoral victories and prosecutorial experience as making him more qualified that Mr. Kijewski for the role of Attorney General.
What was missing from this convention was the MAGA madness that permeated the 2022 GOP Michigan convention where Matt Deperno and Kristina Karamo were nominated by delegates. Trump and MAGA “stop the steal” philosophies had zero roles in the campaign strategies of Doug Lloyd and Anthony Forlini. The humiliating defeats of the MAGA-minded MIGOP nominees in 2022 up and down the ticket was clearly on the minds of delegates in 2026.
Doug Lloyd was endorsed heavily by the law enforcement community. He is expected to face Oakland County Prosecutor Karen McDonald as the Michigan Democratic Party nominee this November. McDonald has raised well over $1 million for her electoral run for Michigan Attorney General – which means Lloyd will have his work cut out for him.
No male Michigan Republican Secretary of State nominee has been elected since James Hare performed the feat in 1966. Candice Miller in 1994 beat incumbent Dem Richard Austin to assume the SOS post – and Terri Lynn Land and Ruth Johnson beat Democratic nominees twice apiece to become Michigan Secretary of State following Miller’s retirement in 2002.
The biggest enemy Michigan GOP nominees have in getting elected is the backlash against Trump policies which saw massive demonstrations on Grand River Avenue in Novi just outside of the Vibe Center GOP convention venue. The “No More Kings” rallies drew crowds aroung the U.S.
If gasoline retail prices remain at their current levels due to Trump’s unpopular Iran War, expect the GOP to get trounced this fall at the polls.
Leanne, Wasn’t James Hare a Democrat?
Tim/
I stand corrected. The proper answer should have been Owen Cleary in 1952 as the last male Michigan Republican nominee to get elected as Secretary of State.
Hare WAS elected in 1966 to the SOS position – albeit a Democrat.
Leanne, We all make mistakes and misstatements now and again.
Mr. Cleary was before my time, though I am curious if Cleary College was named after him or his family.
Tim/
Yes, his father founded Cleary College, Owen was a graduate of the school, and he succeeded his father as college president.