Question 1): How will we remember Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s final State of the State address?
Answer 1): She’s been great for the legacy news media. She sounds good. She’s attractive and likeable. She does a great job of branding herself — that’s why she’s described as popular while we’re told her three predecessors weren’t. True, Rick Snyder’s and Jennifer Granholm’s final job approval ratings were in the toilet, but John Engler’s supposedly poor ratings were 47% in the last poll taken before he left office in 2002 — only 5% less than Whitmer’s are now. She has more detractors than her acolytes want to admit. “Big Gretch Out” — that was her idiosyncratic SOTS signoff. Fact is, there is still work that needs to be done — the ominous 2026-27 budget and on roads and infrastructure, while K-12 reading scores are near rock-bottom (thus Whitmer’s belated concern over literacy). She’s had seven years to do something about these issues and others; she may have tried, but she’s fallen short. The outcomes haven’t been what Whitmer promised in 2018 when she launched her bid for the state’s top office..
The governor’s Feb. 25 address wasn’t a bold governing moment. It was a safe political speech from a governor who has one foot out the door. She’s term-limited. Republicans control the House of Representatives. Democrats technically control the Senate, but that body has been largely dysfunctional.
Whitmer knows the odds of major legislative wins in the final stretch are slim, so her tone made perfect sense. This wasn’t about launching something new. It was about playing it safe and reminiscing, managing the close of a chapter and positioning herself for whatever comes next — likely outside of elected office.
In other words, in politics it’s better to be perceived as “well-liked” than to actually achieve something.
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Question 2): For only the second time in its long history, the Michigan Republican Party will hold a spring endorsement convention on March 28 at the Vibe Credit Union Showplace in Novi. That’s where the state GOP will anoint its nominees for important statewide offices such as Secretary of State, Attorney General, the Supreme Court, as well as the eight state education board seats (two apiece on the U-M Board of Regents, MSU Board of Trustees, Wayne State Board of Governors, and the State Board of Education) who will be on the general election ballot. Not Lt. Gov., though — that choice will be left for the gubernatorial nominee to pick after he wins next year’s August primary.
Only the endorsed candidates would then be eligible for automatic nomination at the legally required Fall state convention after the August primary, although one or more of these endorsees could be challenged, defeated, and replaced by another candidate by a 2/3 majority of the delegates.
Because the cash-strapped party lacks the funds to organize both an endorsement convention and the legally required post-primary “official” nominating convention, to offset costs the GOP will charge delegates and candidates a fee to participate. For delegates the fee will be $50 a head, which critics argue is equivalent to a poll tax. For SoS and A.G. candidates, the fee will be $10,000, for the Supreme Court $7,500, and for the ed boards, $2,500 apiece. There is some precedent. Even Michigan GOP Chairman Jim Runestad had to pony up $15,000 to enter the fray for party chief at another convention last year.
Also, only precinct delegates elected in 2024 will be considered eligible at this year’s endorsement conclave. That means the precinct delegates elected for the first time some four months from now in the August 4 primary will be cut out of the endorsement process. They will be enfranchised for the first time only at the Fall state convention. That’s one reason the party’s county conventions held on Feb. 26 were so lightly attended — that and the $50 fee they’ll be charged on March 28.
So, the question is, how important is this endorsement convention for the Michigan GOP, anyway?
Answer 2): It will be important only if the Republicans manage to avoid the results of their first such convention, in 2022, which were underwhelming, to say the least. All the Republican nominees got wiped out by whopping margins the following November.
The big question this time is who the Republicans will nominate for two major constitutional offices — Secretary of State and Attorney General. The only GOP candidates with a chance to win in November are Anthony (Tony) Forlini, the Macomb Co. Clerk (and former state rep) running for SoS, and Doug Lloyd, the Eaton Co. Prosecuting Attorney, running for A.G., and even they will be underdogs against their Democratic opponents. Any other Republican nominees will be clobbered, and that includes the two candidates whom the party nominates for the state Supreme Court, who will be running uphill against Democratic nominees with the incumbency designation under their names on the non-partisan ballot.
Is there a real possibility that the Republican gubernatorial candidate who wins the primary won’t honor the results of the March 28 endorsement convention? After all, he (and it will be a “he”) knows the post-primary Fall convention can as a matter of law and practice do whatever it wants, notwithstanding a prior convention’s action. Yes, a non-endorsed candidate preferred by the top of the ticket might challenge the endorsement results, but he or she will still have to get a 2/3 vote to overturn them.
In other words, the gubernatorial (or U.S. Senate) nominee would have to have a Trump-like hold on the convention delegates to bend them to his will. Is the Michigan Republican Party likely to boast such primary-nominated candidates this year?
No way.
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I agree with everything you stated regarding Whitmer and secondly, the nominating convention
What concerns me about March 28 is “don’t go where angels fear to tread”
I am a dedicated supporter of Forlini and Lloyd and I have put my money where my words are.
Every Michigan SOS elected since 1970 has been a female or minority. Forlini is clearly well-qualified with his years in the Legislature and his election administration experience as Macomb County Clerk, but both Amanda Love and Monica Yatooma are running vigorous campaigns – and delegates may choose Yatooma as the best qualified to draw both women and minority Arab-American votes in the November general election.
Eaton County Prosecutor Doug Lloyd may or may not receive the GOP endorsement at the nominating convention – but presumptive Dem nominee Karen McDonald – who has raised over $1 million in campaign funds – is facing an investigation with the Attorney Grievance Commission initiated by the complaint of former State Bar President Nancy Diehl – and this could impact the November general election.
In the past, GOP heavy hitters such as Ron Weiser and the DeVos family had made plentiful donations to operate the MIGOP – those days are long gone. It an embarrassment that today many elderly precinct delegates who are on fixed incomes lack the wherewithal and cannot attend the GOP state convention due to the imposition of “dues”.
I actually get campaign updates from Yatooma. Most active MIGOP candidate I’ve seen in quite a while. I think she is a shoo-in.
What has surprised me this election cycle is that both Yatooma and Love have been largely unknowns but have appeared to campaign at most GOP functions and sent the most e-mails in the SOS race.
The outstate delegate vote is a mystery on how it will turn in this race but all three have done some campaigning in West Michigan.
Leanne, I don’t disagree with your assessment on McDonald, but that would require a lot more media activity than it is getting now. WXYZ (Channel 7 in Detroit, the ABC affiliate) may put Ross Jones on it, or not. If there is media coverage, it will make the AG race quite interesting as Nancy Diehl is many things, but being a partisan Republican is NOT one of them.
Cheryl Krapf Haddock says
(Edit)A great report Bill.
As an alternate delegate for Eaton County as well as my daughter being an alternate delegate as well we will be at the convention and we did each pay our $50 bucks!
At the Secretary of State Forum Luncheon on luncheon in Eaton County this past Saturday 3/7/26, it was clear who the Candidate most organized campaign is and that would be Anthony Forlini.
There is a clear path on the Attorney General for Michigan race to my friend here in Eaton County Prosecutor Douglas Lloyd. No one has outworked him in the AG race and he is the most qualified by far. He has a direction for Michigan and it’s very impressive. Great integrity!
My daughter and I are looking forward to March 28 and we’ll see you in DETROIT!
Leanne says
(Edit)A white male has not been elected secretary of state since James Hare served from 1955-1970.
Does the MIGOP really want Tony Forlini as its nominee?
Tim Sullivan says
(Edit)Nice article, Bill. It seems the arrival of daylight savings time caused you no difficulty.
QUESTION 1: the SOTS address was lots of style, a wee bit of substance, and an excellent example of activity masquerading as accomplishment.
You’re right, school scores suck in far too many districts. Oddly enough, the number of administrators continues to rise. She has tried an end around the abjectly dysfunctional State Board of Education, but that hasn’t worked out as she has not been willing to spend political capital – and irritate interest groups within her party – to do that. And her party’s successful elimination of the “grading” of schools and requiring at least passable reading skills by the end of 3rd grade to get to the 4th grade have not worked. Best not to talk about it and hope people have forgotten.
QUESTION 2: Not being a card carrying or dues paying Republican, I have no dog in the fights going on in Novi, but I’m pretty sure the Constitutional prohibition on poll taxes does not apply to political parties. As to whether the fees being charged drive away people – not only from the nominating process but from voting for you or not – I don’t know.
As for the GOP money problems, I’ve written about that in prior TBR responses. They stem from when the masses of the GOP told the donor class no. It didn’t help the donor class when their preferred candidates for governor could not get enough valid signatures. Oops. As for the other nominees for the other offices, the GOP masses’ supporters ran for precinct delegate and won. And having won, they were not inclined to do what the donor class, who did not organize or run for delegate, wanted them to do. Ad the donor class responded by turning off the money. My suspicion is that if the donor class does not get its way, they’ll do the same thing again, and will continue to do this until the GOP masses yield or until the Democrats seriously come after their money. By then though, it may be too late.
The Democrats are much more organized, of course, having done these early conventions in the past. Benson will be anointed to run for Governor, Gilchrist for SOS, McDonald for AG and all the incumbent office holders who have not endorsed Duggan will also be renominated. I suspect we will not see an outbreak of democracy at the Democratic convention as they are not as well run as GOP conventions of the past.
Regardless, plenty of fodder for future TBRs!
Oops. In paragraph 5, line 6, it reads ‘AD THE DONOR CLASS’. Taht’s a boo-boo. It should read “AND” the donor class.
Mea culpa.
Tim/
Leanne, I don’t disagree with your assessment on McDonald, but that would require a lot more media activity than it is getting now. WXYZ (Channel 7 in Detroit, the ABC affiliate) may put Ross Jones on it, or not. If there is media coverage, it will make the AG race quite interesting as Nancy Diehl is many things, but being a partisan Republican is NOT one of them.