The great realignment
Shifts in the demographics of the two parties’ supporters — taking place before our eyes — are arguably the biggest political story of our time.
The big picture: Republicans are becoming more working class and a little more multiracial. Democrats are becoming more elite and a little more white.
Why it matters: Democrats’ hopes for retaining power rest on nonwhite voters remaining a reliable part of the party’s coalition. Democrats’ theory of the case collapses if Republicans make even incremental gains with those voters.
- Even small inroads with Hispanic voters could tip a number of Democratic-held swing seats to the GOP. (The percentage of Hispanics in Michigan is well below the national average, but the percentages of African-Americans, Asian Americans and Native Americans is roughly the same in Michigan as in the U.S.A. as a whole.)
What the data show: Democrats are statistically tied with Republicans among Hispanics on the generic congressional ballot, according to a New York Times-Siena College poll out this week. Dems held a 47-point edge with Hispanics during the 2018 midterms.
- An NBC News poll in April found Democrats held a 38-point lead among women with college degrees — up from 10 points from 2010. Democrats lost ground with nearly every other demographic group tested in the survey.
- Nearly every House pickup in the 2020 election came from a woman or non-white challenger. The GOP’s ability to win back a House majority this year rests on the success of candidates breaking the party’s typical mold.
What’s happening: Democratic strategists say the party’s biggest vulnerability is assuming that the priorities of progressive activists are the same as those of working-class voters.
- Progressive activists led the push to cut police budgets. Communities of color have borne the brunt of higher crime.
- Hispanics living on the U.S.-Mexico border are more likely to favor tougher border security measures that Republicans have championed.
- The recall of liberal school board members and a district attorney in San Francisco was fueled by disillusioned Asian-American Democrats.
Between the lines: Add the reality of growing inflation and worries of recession, and you see why Democrats are losing ground with a core part of their coalition.
- Wealthier Americans aren’t feeling the day-to-day hardship hitting the working class.
- This week’s Times/Siena poll found affluent voters care about gun control and abortion rights. Working-class voters are squarely focused on the economy.
Reality check: Suburban districts still make up the majority of congressional battlegrounds, and the GOP’s Trumpified brand remains a threat to limit their gains.
- Republican candidates holding extreme views on abortion or echoing Trump’s election lies are still toxic in the suburbs.
- Since the Supreme Court’s abortion ruling, Democrats have made small gains in national polls.
The bottom line: The GOP is trading soccer moms for Walmart dads.
******************************************************************************
While I don’t disagree with Bill’s general analysis, the bigger change I have noticed is the now stark contrast between rural voters and urban/suburban voters. While urban voters have been predominantly Democrat for years, the suburban areas that used to be Republican are now Democrat or trending Democrat. But when you get a few miles into rural areas, any evidence of support for Democrats is almost non-existent. Bill may also be right about the effect of things like defunding the police, although that is more a product of Republicans’ ability to tag Democrats with a political anchor of a fringe position despite it being held by few Democrat officeholders.
Well, if that % of Hispanics you reference are in Florida and Texas, then you are talking about groups who were lied to by Trump and Republicans about Democrats’ support for Cuban and Venezuela dictators; that would be wrong. However, Democrats are a governing party, not a party about performative arts. Most of the civilized world has trade relations with Cuba, including Canada. The Florida Cuban community is lost in the 1950s and 1960s grievances over the nationalization of the property of rich Cubans. So they moved to Miami and now expect America to forever carry on their grievances for the next 100 years. It is irrational and not in the interest of all Americans.
Secondly, blatant lies about Democratic support of dictators in Latin America to the immigrants of central Florida communities like Orlando, Florida, might move low information voters. But they don’t move people who have any time or interest to understand that the dirty oil of Venezuela is worthy of launching faux attacks on Latin American countries like Reagan did during his term in office.
Democrats have not fought hard enough in Texas and Florida; thus, you see slippage of their margins. Ultimately, Those two states have been Republican in national elections for several cycles. So I would not put too much stock in your theory Bill Ballenger.
It is interesting that your conclusion is that the Republican Party is the working class party. That is not the narrative I would weave if this were my newsletter. It is more like the Republican Party has become that of the Billionaire class who don’t want us to use the class argument in our politics. They do so while poisoning our campaign finance law to favor their money over the voice of working people thru their organizations like labor unions etc.
What happens when you have a dying party is a lot of wishful thinking. The demographics of the country are changing fast. No hordes of brown, black, and yellow people are moving to vote Republican. So, I suggest you keep chasing the women out of your party. Democrats will take these high propensity voters, listen to them, and protect them from the theocracy the Republicans are trying to sell.
I agree with David L. Richards regarding the stark contrast between urban and rural voters.
I will be able to vote “Absentee” in 8 weeks (Sept. 12) for the General Election.
Republicans have handed a gift to Democrats with overturning Roe v. Wade.
MAJORITY OF WOMEN voters are very motivated to vote for “Reproductive Rights”.
One out of every six votes (Statewide) comes out of Oakland County. Generally, Oakland County
women will vote for Reproductive Rights. Republicans have no candidate to support “Womens Rights” in particular in Oakland County.
Republicans will not win another Statewide Election unless they nominate a moderately-conservative candidate
Very, very interesting. I’ve seen it playing out in Oakland County.
It seems the Great Reset actually involves party realignment in America. This is indeed historic and means the end of the old 40 year old Reagan Coalition Republican Party and the final end of the New Deal Dems as well.
A perfect example of this is the City of East Grand Rapids, which used to be reliably Republican. Not anymore. The home of Gerald R. Ford has now become washed in Blue. They’ve gone ‘woke’. Unbelievable!! (See how fast they change their tune when the gang-bangers from SE GR invade!!)
The chink in the armor will become apparent as soon as it is no longer safe to engage in normal day-to-day activity; i.e. visit the grocery store, go to the post office, put gas in your vehicle–if you can afford it! At that point, even the elites will panic and demand more police and tougher prosecutors.
Watch the strategy of the party of the jackass blow up in their face. Couldn’t happen to a more deserving bunch!!
So republicans hold “extreme” views such as not killing babies. How extreme than are those of what ever political party who want to kill babies?