They said it after the election of 1912, and again after 1936, 1964, and 1974. The coastal elites, mainstream media and all Democrats even said it as recently as 2008 — the Grand Old Party is hopelessly fractured and weakened, with demographics pointing the way to permanent minority status.
Today, that means Republicanism is splintered between old-line ‘country club’ conservatives, evangelicals, right wing militia types, QAnon crackpots, and sycophantic appeasers of former President Donald Trump. Humpty Dumpty can’t be put together again, they claim.
It isn’t so. As the newsletter Inside Elections (IE) has pointed out, what happened in the Nov. 3 election (and the Jan. 5 Georgia Senate runoffs) matters less than what the politicians who count think happened in those elections.
Republicans could take President Donald Trump’s defeat, another two years in the House minority and the loss of U.S. Senate control as a repudiation of their leader and their party. But nothing could be further from the truth.
Instead, Republicans have reason to believe they’re in the ascent. To many of them, Biden’s victory is shrouded in widespread voting irregularities and controversy, even though none of this has been proven in court. And even though they narrowly lost the two Senate runoffs in Georgia, a double-digit seat gain in the House and consolidation of the party’s advantage in state legislatures that will determine reapportionment for the next decade following the 2020 census is the ultimate way to thumb their noses at Democrats and the media in one fell swoop.
After defying expectations, the Republicans feel little need to be conciliatory when it comes to legislating, particularly when it looks as though the GOP is well-positioned to win enough seats in the upcoming mid-terms with a Democratic president to win back the U.S. House majority and recapture clear control in the Senate, where one of the two Georgia winners is a progressive Democrat who will face re-election while being clearly out-of-step with the Peach State electorate. After all, look what happened to Alabama Democrat Doug Jones last fall.
Meanwhile, IE, a non-partisan publication that handicaps elections all across the country, notes that Democrats are “balancing the satisfaction of defeating their common enemy with retrospection and infighting about how they fell short of their lofty goals set by faulty polling. They know that (President Joe) Biden will oversee a divided party without a consensus on policy, strategy and tactics.”
Here is some evidence that gives credence to what top Republicans are thinking — statewide baseline party strength.
“Baseline party strength” captures a state or Congressional district’s political performance by combining all federal and state election results over the past four cycles (2014-2020) into a single average. According to Bradley Wascher, contributing analyst for Washington-D.C.-based IE, who has run the numbers state-by-state nationwide, there are 29 states with a Republican advantage in base party strength and only 21 states where Democrats have the edge.
That may not necessarily portend winning a 2024 presidential election, but it boosts Republican confidence that the party will do a lot better than expected in state and local elections in the next four years.
Here is the line-up:
STATE DEMOCRAT REPUBLICAN MARGIN
Alabama 38.5% 61.2% R +22.6%
Alaska 41.6% 51.5% R +9.9%
Arizona 47.6% 51.1% R +3.5%
Arkansas 36.5% 59.5% R +23.0%
California 60.4% 39.2% D +21.2%
Colorado 49.9% 45.8% D +4.1%
Connecticut 55.2% 41.6% D +13.6%
Delaware 57.1% 40.9% D +16.2%
Florida 46.4% 51.9% R +5.6%
Georgia 46.0% 53.1% R +7.1%*
Hawaii 67.9% 29.2% D +38.8%
Idaho 35.9% 61.5% R +25.6%
Illinois 55.3% 41.0% D +14.3%
Indiana 40.5% 56.4% R +15.9%
Iowa 45.7% 51.4% R + 5.7%
Kansas 39.7% 58.1% R +18.3%
Kentucky 41.5% 57.1% R +15.6%
Louisiana 40.4% 58.6% R +18.1%
Maine 49.5% 45.2% D +4.3%
Maryland 60.8% 36.7% D +24.2%
Massachusetts 61.7% 35.1% D +26.6%
Michigan 49.3% 47.5% D +1.8%
Minnesota 51.1% 43.7% D +7.4%
Mississippi 39.1% 58.7% R +19.6%
Missouri 40.6% 56.1% R +15.5%
Montana 42.9% 54.6% R +11.7%
Nebraska 36.3% 60.7% R +24.4%
New Hampshire 49.9% 47.1% D +2.8%
New Jersey 55.7% 42.1% D +13.6%
New Mexico 54.3% 44.1% D +10.2%
Nevada 46.0% 48.5% R +2.5%
New York 61.5% 35.8% D +25.6%
North Carolina 48.3% 50.6% R +2.3%
North Dakota 31.8% 65.0% R +33.1%
Ohio 43.2% 54.7% R +11.5%
Oklahoma 34.2% 62.9% R +28.7%
Oregon 52.8% 41.2% D +11.7%
Pennsylvania 50.5% 46.8% D +3.7%
Rhode Island 60.5% 35.6% D +24.9%
South Carolina 40.9% 56.9% R +16.0%
South Dakota 33.6% 63.3% R +29.7%
Tennessee 35.9% 61.0% R +25.1%
Texas 41.5% 55.3% R +13.7%
Utah 31.0% 62.3% R +31.3%
Vermont 59.2% 35.6% D +23.6%
Virginia 53.3% 45.2% D +8.1%
Washington 55.8% 43.2% D +12.7%
West Virginia 38.0% 58.8% R +20.8%
Wisconsin 48.5% 49.0% R +0.4%
Wyoming 26.8% 67.9% R +41.0%
Note: Margin discrepancies due to rounding
- Georgia margin shows slightly decreased Republican advantage as a result of 1/5/21 special elections
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This analysis is deeply flawed.
1) Yes, the Democrats have only a nominal advantage in states like Maine, Colorado, or Michigan, but the base numbers don’t account for independent or no-party voters.
2) Winning a House or Senate majority or winning state legislatures is completely different than the presidency. It’s entirely possible we are entering an era in which the GOP dominates at the congressional and state legislatures but loses national elections for president; not unlike the vast postwar period to the 1990s in which Democrats mostly controlled Congress while Republicans mostly won presidential elections.
Fascinating Bill I always enjoy your insight and perspective.
Before you can make such Assumptions William,In the Real World ,Two things Have to
Happen 1.Dems Falter in there Programs
To Stop the Pademic .
2. Democrats , do not build back better for the middle class.
That’s because the Republican Party Enabled
A mad man for 4years of Tyranny and oppression ! And Shame on the GOP people do not forget!
Before you can make such Assumptions William,In the Real World ,Two things Have to
Happen 1.Dems Falter in there Programs
To Stop the Pademic .
2. Democrats , do not build back better for the middle class.
That’s because the Republican Party Enabled the Racist and Cheif fore 4 years. people do not forget!
I agree with your analysis Bill, but it all becomes moot if all the current avenues for election fraud are not shut down. If the unconstitutional state election laws and the wide use of Dominion vote counting machines which allowed the Damocrats to steal the presidential election are still in place for the 2022 congressional elections, the Damocrats will stay in power no matter how much the Republicans improve their game.
I do not know where Winegarden comes off on calling Trump the mad man. If you want to see tyranny and oppression watch the net four years of Biden. Petersen is right on in my book.