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You are here: Home / Uncategorized / THE REPUBLICAN PARTY IS IN BETTER SHAPE THAN ITS DETRACTORS WANT YOU TO THINK

THE REPUBLICAN PARTY IS IN BETTER SHAPE THAN ITS DETRACTORS WANT YOU TO THINK

January 25, 2021 by tbreport 6 Comments

They said it after the election of 1912, and again after 1936, 1964, and 1974. The coastal elites, mainstream media and all Democrats even said it as recently as 2008 — the Grand Old Party is hopelessly fractured and weakened, with demographics pointing the way to permanent minority status.

Today, that means Republicanism is splintered between old-line ‘country club’ conservatives, evangelicals, right wing militia types, QAnon crackpots, and sycophantic appeasers of former President Donald Trump. Humpty Dumpty can’t be put together again, they claim.

It isn’t so. As the newsletter Inside Elections (IE) has pointed out, what happened in the Nov. 3 election (and the Jan. 5 Georgia Senate runoffs) matters less than what the politicians who count think happened in those elections.

Republicans could take President Donald Trump’s defeat, another two years in the House minority and the loss of U.S. Senate control as a repudiation of their leader and their party. But nothing could be further from the truth.

Instead, Republicans have reason to believe they’re in the ascent. To many of them, Biden’s victory is shrouded in widespread voting irregularities and controversy, even though none of this has been proven in court. And even though they narrowly lost the two Senate runoffs in Georgia, a double-digit seat gain in the House and consolidation of the party’s advantage in state legislatures that will determine reapportionment for the next decade following the 2020 census is the ultimate way to thumb their noses at Democrats and the media in one fell swoop.

After defying expectations, the Republicans feel little need to be conciliatory when it comes to legislating, particularly when it looks as though the GOP is well-positioned to win enough seats in the upcoming mid-terms with a Democratic president to win back the U.S. House majority and recapture clear control in the Senate, where one of the two Georgia winners is a progressive Democrat who will face re-election while being clearly out-of-step with the Peach State electorate. After all, look what happened to Alabama Democrat Doug Jones last fall.

Meanwhile, IE, a non-partisan publication that handicaps elections all across the country, notes that Democrats are “balancing the satisfaction of defeating their common enemy with retrospection and infighting about how they fell short of their lofty goals set by faulty polling. They know that (President Joe) Biden will oversee a divided party without a consensus on policy, strategy and tactics.”

Here is some evidence that gives credence to what top Republicans are thinking — statewide baseline party strength.

“Baseline party strength” captures a state or Congressional district’s political performance by combining all federal and state election results over the past four cycles (2014-2020) into a single average. According to Bradley Wascher, contributing analyst for Washington-D.C.-based IE, who has run the numbers state-by-state nationwide, there are 29 states with a Republican advantage in base party strength and only 21 states where Democrats have the edge.

That may not necessarily portend winning a 2024 presidential election, but it boosts Republican confidence that the party will do a lot better than expected in state and local elections in the next four years.

Here is the line-up:

STATE                             DEMOCRAT                   REPUBLICAN                        MARGIN

Alabama                             38.5%                                  61.2%                                  R +22.6%
Alaska                                 41.6%                                   51.5%                                    R +9.9%
Arizona                               47.6%                                   51.1%                                    R +3.5%
Arkansas                            36.5%                                   59.5%                                 R +23.0%
California                           60.4%                                  39.2%                                  D +21.2%
Colorado                            49.9%                                   45.8%                                    D +4.1%
Connecticut                       55.2%                                   41.6%                                   D +13.6%
Delaware                            57.1%                                    40.9%                                  D +16.2%
Florida                                46.4%                                   51.9%                                     R +5.6%
Georgia                               46.0%                                   53.1%                                     R +7.1%*
Hawaii                                 67.9%                                  29.2%                                   D +38.8%
Idaho                                   35.9%                                   61.5%                                   R +25.6%
Illinois                                 55.3%                                   41.0%                                   D +14.3%
Indiana                               40.5%                                   56.4%                                   R +15.9%
Iowa                                    45.7%                                    51.4%                                     R + 5.7%
Kansas                                39.7%                                    58.1%                                    R +18.3%
Kentucky                            41.5%                                    57.1%                                     R +15.6%
Louisiana                           40.4%                                   58.6%                                     R +18.1%
Maine                                 49.5%                                    45.2%                                     D +4.3%
Maryland                           60.8%                                   36.7%                                    D +24.2%
Massachusetts                  61.7%                                     35.1%                                    D +26.6%
Michigan                           49.3%                                    47.5%                                       D +1.8%
Minnesota                         51.1%                                     43.7%                                       D +7.4%
Mississippi                        39.1%                                    58.7%                                      R +19.6%
Missouri                            40.6%                                    56.1%                                      R +15.5%
Montana                            42.9%                                   54.6%                                       R +11.7%
Nebraska                            36.3%                                  60.7%                                      R +24.4%
New Hampshire               49.9%                                   47.1%                                         D +2.8%
New Jersey                        55.7%                                   42.1%                                        D +13.6%
New Mexico                      54.3%                                   44.1%                                        D +10.2%
Nevada                               46.0%                                  48.5%                                          R +2.5%
New York                           61.5%                                   35.8%                                       D +25.6%
North Carolina                 48.3%                                   50.6%                                         R +2.3%
North Dakota                    31.8%                                   65.0%                                       R +33.1%
Ohio                                    43.2%                                   54.7%                                       R +11.5%
Oklahoma                          34.2%                                   62.9%                                      R +28.7%
Oregon                               52.8%                                   41.2%                                        D +11.7%
Pennsylvania                    50.5%                                    46.8%                                        D +3.7%
Rhode Island                    60.5%                                    35.6%                                      D +24.9%
South Carolina                 40.9%                                    56.9%                                      R +16.0%
South Dakota                   33.6%                                     63.3%                                      R +29.7%
Tennessee                         35.9%                                     61.0%                                       R +25.1%
Texas                                 41.5%                                      55.3%                                       R +13.7%
Utah                                   31.0%                                     62.3%                                       R +31.3%
Vermont                            59.2%                                     35.6%                                      D +23.6%
Virginia                              53.3%                                    45.2%                                         D +8.1%
Washington                      55.8%                                    43.2%                                       D +12.7%
West Virginia                   38.0%                                    58.8%                                      R +20.8%
Wisconsin                         48.5%                                    49.0%                                         R +0.4%
Wyoming                          26.8%                                     67.9%                                       R +41.0%

Note: Margin discrepancies due to rounding

  • Georgia margin shows slightly decreased Republican advantage as a result of 1/5/21 special elections

**********************************************************************************

 

Filed Under: Uncategorized

Reader Interactions

Comments

  1. Edward Thomas says

    January 25, 2021 at 9:16 am

    This analysis is deeply flawed.

    1) Yes, the Democrats have only a nominal advantage in states like Maine, Colorado, or Michigan, but the base numbers don’t account for independent or no-party voters.

    2) Winning a House or Senate majority or winning state legislatures is completely different than the presidency. It’s entirely possible we are entering an era in which the GOP dominates at the congressional and state legislatures but loses national elections for president; not unlike the vast postwar period to the 1990s in which Democrats mostly controlled Congress while Republicans mostly won presidential elections.

    Reply
  2. C.S. Kelly, Sr says

    January 25, 2021 at 11:27 am

    Fascinating Bill I always enjoy your insight and perspective.

    Reply
  3. Jerome Dallas Winegarden Jr. says

    January 25, 2021 at 11:55 am

    Before you can make such Assumptions William,In the Real World ,Two things Have to
    Happen 1.Dems Falter in there Programs
    To Stop the Pademic .
    2. Democrats , do not build back better for the middle class.
    That’s because the Republican Party Enabled
    A mad man for 4years of Tyranny and oppression ! And Shame on the GOP people do not forget!

    Reply
  4. Jerome Dallas Winegarden Jr. says

    January 25, 2021 at 12:02 pm

    Before you can make such Assumptions William,In the Real World ,Two things Have to
    Happen 1.Dems Falter in there Programs
    To Stop the Pademic .
    2. Democrats , do not build back better for the middle class.
    That’s because the Republican Party Enabled the Racist and Cheif fore 4 years. people do not forget!

    Reply
  5. Eric Petersen says

    January 25, 2021 at 2:53 pm

    I agree with your analysis Bill, but it all becomes moot if all the current avenues for election fraud are not shut down. If the unconstitutional state election laws and the wide use of Dominion vote counting machines which allowed the Damocrats to steal the presidential election are still in place for the 2022 congressional elections, the Damocrats will stay in power no matter how much the Republicans improve their game.

    Reply
  6. Gerald Hough says

    January 25, 2021 at 5:59 pm

    I do not know where Winegarden comes off on calling Trump the mad man. If you want to see tyranny and oppression watch the net four years of Biden. Petersen is right on in my book.

    Reply

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