Question 1): Is it clear now that Michigan’s 2024 general election race for the U.S. Senate will be between Democrat Elissa Slotkin and Republican Mike Rogers?
Answer 1): Yes, barring an unexpected calamity for either of them. Donald Trump’s endorsement of Rogers sealed the deal on the Republican side, despite the bleatings of some feckless right wingers. Meanwhile, Slotkin is cruising toward the Democratic nomination as her opponents have failed to take off in fundraising or building name ID.
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Question 2): Republicans in the state Senate have introduced legislation to prohibit municipalities from declaring themselves “sanctuary cities.” This issue has been around the track before, but will it get legs this time?
Answer 2): The legislation itself will go nowhere in the Legislature, despite the recent murders of Lakin Riley in Georgia and Ruby Garcia in Grand Rapids by illegal immigrants. That said, the broader topics of border security, immigration, and the impact lax enforcement has on economic and national safety are policy issues that Michigan voters can expect to hear about in the Presidential and U.S. House and Senate races, as well as contests for the state House. These issues aren’t going away, and Republicans will continue to press what they see as an advantage. Democrats must come up with better answers than they have so far, or it may cost them in November.
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Question 3): Republicans are crying “foul“ on Gov. Gretchen Whitmer for recommending that the Auditor General’s office receive a 28 percent funding cut for FY 2024-25. We don’t know yet what will become of this item, because the Legislature will ultimately play a major role in deciding what happens. Besides, the Whitmer administration now insists this is just an updated version of what used to be called ‘zero-base budgeting’ — a ‘placeholder’ as the opening gambit in negotiating how much money the A.G. should receive. What is surprising is the dismissive attitude taken by the news media and various political soothsayers toward the question of whether the office of Auditor General is important enough to pay attention to. For example, four pundits assembled by the MIRS newsletter opined that this is ‘inside baseball’ and that it won’t matter to voters, who don’t understand it and wouldn’t care about it if they did. Is this true? Has much of what transpires in state government become so politicized that everything is seen through a campaign prism whereby, if an issue doesn’t test well in polls, it can be disregarded and not reported on?
Answer 3): The office of Auditor General and its funding isn’t that complicated, and it should be easy to cover. That doesn’t mean Republicans won’t make a hash of the issue by spouting too much jargon and detail, or that the ‘legacy’ Lansing press won’t ignore it. If the Auditor General is too obscure for the news media to think it’s worth covering, what about something as invisible as the House Fiscal Agency? If the news media in 1993-94 had the same attitude as today’s present-day press and various other political observers, would the HFA scandal ever have been exposed? Probably not.
Instead, however, Detroit News reporters Jim Mitzelfeld and Eric Freedman won a Pulitzer Prize for investigative reporting with a series of articles detailing how HFA director John Morberg and some of his underlings used the agency’s imprest cash fund to finance credit card payments, furniture purchases, property tax payments, vacations, social events, dental work and payments to HFA employees and contract workers for non-existent labor. Dozens of Detroit News articles led to felony convictions for 10 people, including a lawmaker from the Upper Peninsula. Today, Freedman remembers how the DN duo’s articles helped push one of the state’s most powerful politicians (Democrat Dominic Jacobetti) onto the Capitol sidelines, uncovered political influence in the awarding of state contracts, and triggered tougher oversight of the House Fiscal Agency (HFA), the nonpartisan office that analyzes tax and budget issues for the House of Representatives.
And, Freedman recalls, for the first time in 14 years the Auditor General’s office (Tah-Dah!) examined the HFA’s books, discovering that at least $1.8 million in public money had been stolen, misspent or simply couldn’t be accounted for. Democratic state Attorney Gen. Frank J. Kelley and Republican U.S. Atty. John Smietanka created a task force to investigate the conspiracy, bringing together the State Police, FBI, Internal Revenue Service and other law enforcement agencies.
Morberg, the ringleader, went to federal prison for racketeering, conspiracy and tax crimes.Rep. Stephen Shepich (D-Iron River) was convicted of receiving fraudulent travel reimbursement while working on the agency staff, and he resigned his western U.P. House seat as part of a plea bargain. HFA deputy director Warren Gregory was convicted of federal tax crimes and imprisoned.
Morberg’s mentor was Jacobetti, a veteran legislator who chaired the House Appropriations Committee. His committee was responsible for monitoring the HFA but failed to do so. Jacobetti, nicknamed the “Godfather,” wasn’t criminally charged but was forced to resign his powerful committee post and died in late 1994.
No, the current kerfuffle over Auditor General funding doesn’t come close to rivaling the 1993-94 HFA scandal in significance, at least not yet, but can the ‘Fourth Estate’ afford to take its eye off the ball at this point? Nobody three decades ago thought anything like the HFA disaster could happen, but it did — and it can again, in another state agency, especially if the Auditor General isn’t empowered to guard against a repeat.
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Rogers is an atrocious big government Republicrat that should never be the supposed conservative choice by most GOP. Surveillance Mike has an abysmal voting record. Justin Amash is the only candidate with a record of restraining our bloated spending GOP track record.
Amash will bridge the gap and is the best choice!
Latest polling results show Justin Amash at third place with 6% – just behind Peter Meijer at 7%
Mike Rogers leads the GOP Senate pack at 27%.
Nice article, Bill. Happy Easter to one and all!
Nice history lesson in Question 3. One thing I might have added is that this issue may have had some impact in the passage of term limits.
QUESTION 1: I believe you’re right on the Senate race. Rogers will have trouble with some of those in the populist wing of the GOP. Trump’s endorsement of Rogers is, for the lack of a better term, a peace offering to the establishment wing of the GOP. There will be those whose loathing of Rogers cannot be overcome, but in the end, they will have to decide if a Senator Slotkin will be of more help to a Trump agenda than a Senator Rogers. But that depends on what is at the top of one’s political hierarchy of need: purity or possible political gain.
QUESTION 2 – I think you’re right on this. Each party’s affinity for local control and local rights is highly situational. The GOP loves limiting them when it may impact businesses and corporations, i.e. higher local minimum wages, but support it when it comes to limiting windmills and the like. The Democrats don’t like localities limiting windmills and the like, but are perfectly happy with sanctuary cities and higher local minimum wages. Consistency is NOT any party’s strongest suit. Here in Michigan, Ruby Garcia’s killer has been here for a while, but given the way the pro-Hamas wing of the Democratic Party is dictating our new middle East policy, you’re right that we should expect NOTHING to come out of Lansing on this.
One thing I have always found interesting about the Left and sanctuary cities is that they are basically using a Middle Ages concept from Catholic Church – a Church they mostly despise – to argue that, say Ann Arbor or a court where an illegal is being processed, is a secular equivalent of the Church. If you were in a Church, the agents of the state were not supposed to come after you, hence sanctuary. This is why the assassination of St. Thomas a Becket in the Cathedral was so shocking. Though how they can make such an equivalence to arresting an illegal alien is just a wee bit beyond me.
QUESTION 3 – You’re right, the Fourth Estate (and Fifth if you consider broadcast media as another estate) should be up in arms over this. Too bad Mssrs. Freedman and Mitzelfeld aren’t in the field anymore. Mr. Freedman I believe is at MSU’s Journalism School and I think Mitzelfeld was (or may still be) a lawyer in the Justice Department. Such a cut in the Auditor General budget makes keeping our government honest infinitely more difficult. Imagine if Engler had cut the Auditor General budget. Would they have been able to investigate the HFA? But running with this story may tend to derail the Whitmer Train and I don’t see that happening. And since I have yet to see a story on this topic in the Freep or Detroit News, I am not holding my breath.
The “Fourth Estate” is now the Fifth Column.
The question facing GOP primary voters in August will be whether their distaste for Rogers’ positions and his past anti-Trump comments will result in them voting for someone else that is NOT anti-Trump.
Mike Hoover is an articulate successful businessman and Nikki Snyder well-liked on the campaign trail – but neither has raised significant campaign funding nor are they polling significantly in the GOP primary.
Hey Bill, another superlative TBR,
wrt Q#1: So, is that whirring sound I hear the MI-Establishment media winding up the presses to let us know how Trump endorsing terrible candidates is the reason for losing so many high-profile races? Sheesh, box him into a corner, then skewer him for picking the lesser of 8 or 10 evils. So even though Slotkin is a negative 3 on a 0 to +10 scale, she’s the front runner for my vote.
wrt Q#2: “Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free, The wretched refuse of your teeming shore, Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me, I lift my lamp beside the golden door!” A beautiful idea that once worked magically . . . a long time ago. Doesn’t work anymore. We are WAY too in-bred to be of any help to these people. Soros has poisoned the well. We now live too close to the edge of oblivion ourselves to afford the level of luxury our progressives think we can afford. We are NOT the rich, rich, rich nation they still dream of. We are the greatest debtor nation in the history of the world. And it will blow up sooner or later.
Better to develop relations with allied nations to direct these folks there. Sure, ok, call us colonizers if it makes you feel better. But this would be sort of reverse-colonization, wouldn’t it?
wrt Q#3: Elections have consequences . . . when socialists win. In the spirit of Passover, the Dems rightly find justification in pointing out that Jesus and St. Paul were socialists because, among other things, they believed in wealth distribution (eg, Mat 14:13-21, and 2 Cor 8:14), They are correct. Of course, the operative word Dem/Progressives rely on is, “confiscation”. They are more than ready to confiscate rather than give “free-will offerings” a chance. And they are also more than willing to call “mandate” on a 50%+1 advantage. They may call that democracy, I call it mob rule. I long for the days of the super 60 – 67% majority we used to insist upon. That is the hallmark of a Republic.
Keep ’em coming, Bill
Indeed, another superlative Ballenger report.
Republicans have won precisely ONE U.S. Senate election in Michigan since 1972, and none since 1994. Slotkin has proven she can win in GOP-leaning areas (she might well have been a Republican in the Romney-Milliken era) and she will have an opponent who has been living in Florida.
I would not bet a dime on Mike Rogers
Good point – Spencer Abraham was the last GOP nominee to when a U.S. senate seat from Michigan – in 1994.
However the latest Slotkin-Rogers poll shown these two in a dead heat.
We do not yet know how much the Gaza issue will hurt Democrats in Michigan elections.
This election is a lot like 1972 where a strange confluence on unexpected political factors developed.
One is Gaza. The mistake may political observers make is to look at the Arab-American population of Michigan – which is certainly not monolithic – and compare that with the number of votes Democrats received in 2020 in Michigan.
Many if not most of the anti-Israel sentiment that will damage Slotkin – and Biden – in Michigan in 2020 emanates from the progressive liberals that oppose U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East.
I was at the Dearborn Manor rally for Gaza several weeks ago that drew politicians and grass-roots activists from all over Michigan and even out-of-state. Maybe half of the several hundred attendees were Arab-Americans. Detroit Councilperson Gabriela Santiago-Romero was one of the speakers as were many Detroit black clergymen. Rashida Tlaib was the only Palestinian-American speaker. Attendees were urged to vote “Uncommitted” in the presidential primary.
Compare this to 1972 when the anti-Vietnam War crowd divided Democrats and gave Republicans their biggest margin of victory in Michigan history – and U.S. history to that point.
That said, Elissa Slotkin is well ahead in primary election poliing and she will have tens of millions in AIPAC funding. As a betting person, one would be wise to expect Slotkin to prevail – however Rogers can conceivably win in November.
Mike Rogers on his resume can list Army Officer, and FBI special agent. Mike Rogers compiled an outstanding record in public office first as a State Senator and 14 years in Congress rising to become Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee. The MAGA crowd that dominates today’s Republican Party views Rogers record with distain.
Trump’s past and current record of fawning over authoritarian leaders in Russia, North Korea, Hungary, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia should be troubling. Given Trump’s indictment for covering up his illegal possession of Top Secret classified documents hidden away at his resort caused me to view Mike Rogers endorsement of Donald Trump with extreme cynicism.I know political candidates don’t always demonstrate moral clarity or courage. Both Justin Amash in 2019 and Peter Meijer in 2021 voted for a Trump impeachment. Neither is likely to survive a primary given Trump’s endorsement of Rogers.
This will result in a November 2024 election between Rogers and Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin for Michigan’s open U.S. Senate seat. A seat once held by Arthur Vandenberg, the architect of American bipartisan foreign policy following World War II. It is also the seat once held by Phil Hart who was called the “conscience of the Senate.” Both candidates have strong national security and intelligence expertise. Will Mike Rogers embrace his past record or will he choose expediency and uncritically follow Donald Trump’s world view?
Mike Rogers in polling only has 27% of the GOP primary vote at this point.
Elissa Slotkin has a 58% point lead over progressive Democrat Hill Harper – and Nasser Beydoun has a miniscule 3% in polling.
Rogers has not campaigned extensively within the GOP grassroots yet – and until he convinces the anti-establishment Republicans that his security background will not make him averse to guns rights and First Amendment advocates he is not certain to capture the nomination despite his Trump endorsement.
If anyone believes that a Trump endorsement is a shoo-in for GOP nomination, ask Matt Deperno – whose Trump endorsement for state GOP chair did not result in his election by state convention delegates. That went to Kristina Karamo
Funny thing about the Slotkin-Rogers probable match-up is that both are facing significant populist opposition elements in their own respective parties:
(A) Sandy Pensler released an ad two months ago that was a collage of anti-Trump comments made by Rogers over the last few years – thus emphasizing to voters that the Trump-Rogers duet is a marriage of convenience as opposed to true affinity to one another;
(B) Elissa Slotkin has tried to distance herself from the raucous AIPAC-oriented pro-Israel crowd by quietly supporting federal legislation to authorize aid to Gaza and, more recently, denouncing on her Twitter account anti-Gaza comments made by fellow Michigan Congressman Tim Walberg;
(C) at a post-convention GOP function occurring in the attended by most declared candidates for U.S. Senate – including Mike Hoover, Sandy Pensler, Nikki Snyder, and Peter Meijer – Mike Rogers failed to appear, whereas Meijer did appear and faced tough audience questions over his impeachment vote of Trump and other actions perceived as injurious to Republican party interests.
Despite the “pro-Hamas wing of the Michigan Democrats”, Elissa Slotkin’s lead in polling still exists over Rogers – by about 2%, which is a decline from 6% pre-October 7th.
There is no doubt that both Slotkin and Rogers will continue to face stiff opposition within their own respective parties that they will need to overcome. This is where campaign strategy is important.
This election cycle is like 1968 in many ways – a divisive war half way around the world dividing Americans and plaguing a U.S. presidency. An America also divided by racial issues.
“Given Trump’s indictment for covering up his illegal possession of Top Secret classified documents hidden away at his resort caused me to view Mike Rogers endorsement of Donald Trump with extreme cynicism.”
The classification and declassification of federal government documents is the exclusive purview of the sitting President, which was Trump in the cases of the Mar-A-Lago documents. The president can share this Constitutional authority derived from his status as Commander-In-Chief, but never surrender it. His subordinates in the DoJ cannot usurp his authority.
The President can declassify any and all documents with or without any written record. He can do it by mental telekinesis, if he so chooses. It is an authority exclusively vested in the President by the U.S. Constitution, our highest law.
The President answers to no one in matters of classification and declassification, especially his underlings in the Executive Branch. Become familiar with the Atomic Energy Act of 1954. Neither the Congress, nor judges, nor government bureaucrats, nor slime bag DoJ lawyers can infringe the President’s exclusive authority over classified documents.
Congressman Rodgers was chair of the United States House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence. He knows well the President’s total mastery over all U.S. Government classified documents.
Good points, all of them.
The Presidential Records Act of 1978 makes clear that when a President leaves office, the documents, classified or not, he possessed are public and must be turned over to the National Archives. 10x25mm. Trump never declassified a single document and can’t do so now.
Unfortunately for Trump, the judge in Florida just agreed with your assessment.
You would be well served to actually read the ‘USA v. Trump and Waltine Nauta’ indictment filed in the U.S. District Court of Florida, South Florida Division on 08 June 2024. It can be read here:
https://d3i6fh83elv35t.cloudfront.net/static/2023/06/trump-indictment.pdf
Prosecutors made no mention of the Presidential Records Act of 1978 [44 U.S.C. §§ 2201–2209], nor its 2007 revisions in this 49 page indictment against Trump, or in any subsequent filing. He is charged with retaining national defense information under a different law known as the Espionage Act of1917 [18 U.S.C. § 792 et seq.]. This is exclusively an information classification case.
Neither the Presidential Records Act nor the Espionage Act can infringe on a Presidential prerogative granted by the U.S. Constitution. Only a ratified constitutional amendment can modify or dissolve such a prerogative.
You would be well served to actually read the ‘USA v. Trump and Waltine Nauta’ indictment filed in the U.S. District Court of Florida, South Florida Division on 08 June 2024. It can be read here:
[Link prohibited by TBR spam filter]
Prosecutors made no mention of the Presidential Records Act of 1978 [44 U.S.C. §§ 2201–2209], nor its 2007 revisions in this 49 page indictment against Trump, nor in any subsequent filing. He is charged with retaining national defense information under a different law known as the Espionage Act of 1917 [18 U.S.C. § 792 et seq.]. This is exclusively an information classification case.
Neither the Presidential Records Act nor the Espionage Act can infringe on a Presidential prerogative granted by the U.S. Constitution. Only a ratified constitutional amendment can modify or dissolve such a prerogative.
Answer 1) No, not particularly. It should be noted that DJT endorsed a wee bit early, the primary being four months away. Why so early? Because none other than Justin Amash hopped into the race; the very same Justin Amash who wanted to impeach DJT in 2019. So the endorsement wasn’t so much made because DJT was enamored of Rogers (who made MANY snarky remarks about DJT in the past); it was made to Quash Amash.
So who is left? DJT certainly isn’t going to endorse Meijer, who was last seen bagging groceries on lane 3, still putting the eggs at the bottom of the sack. This leaves Sandy Pensler in the category of supposed top tier candidates.
But there are other viable candidates still on the list, one of whom could eek out a victory. All it would take is for DJT to realize that one of these candidates would be the perfect fit to implement his policies, unlike Rogers who is just the type of establishment republican that screwed over DJT before and will do so again.
It can be said at this point that Miss Piggy has a better chance at being the Democrat nominee than Florida Mike has of being the Republican nominee.
So, on behalf of us “feckless right wingers” (Geez, Bill, that stings) don’t let the powder dry. There are other viable Republican candidates waiting in the wings. It isn’t over till the Fat Lady Sings!
Answer 2) Unfortunately not. Until such time as the Republicans control the Governor’s office, along with comfortable margins in the House and Senate, no such legislation will see the light of day. Perhaps more attention should be paid to the fact that it’s the Federal Government which allows the unabated invasion of illegal aliens to cross the Rio Grande. For what purpose? To terrorize and murder US citizens? How about the “Great Replacement” alluded to by Rep. Josh Schriver? After all, very few of these criminal trespassers are Caucasians.
Answer 3) History repeats itself, but never in the same way. It has been thirty years since the last HFA scandal, so it looks like its time for another! And since the Dems are in control, any revealed malfeasance will smack them in their ass. Can you imagine almost $1,000,000 of liquor disappearing from the MLCC? That, according to the House of Representatives is around 62,000 bottles! Was that how the Dems won the election in 2022—by passing out free booze to voters?
Situations such as these are the very reason Freedom of the Press was enshrined into the Constitution. So the spotlight could be shined on Government. If no roaches or rats appear, the officials get a clean bill of health. If not, a story is born, polls skyrocket; heads roll.
So it stands to reason why wHitler wishes to defund the Auditor General; her and her cronies stand to be substantially embarrassed by what will be uncovered if another 1993-94 style investigation is undertaken. That could be a significant problem for one seeking higher office. Instead of the scandal being called “Whitewater”, it will be called “Whiskey-n-Water”.
And to think the Dems never even had the courtesy to stop by with a bottle of Chivas Regal. Looks like I won’t be having another!