Question 1): Gov. Gretchen Whitmer earlier this month opined that, as far as she is concerned, Michigan’s presidential primary will take place on Feb. 27, 2024, as currently scheduled, despite a push from legislative Republicans to shift the date back into early March.
To avoid a substantial penalty from the national party, Karamo’s GOP plans to award only 16 of 55 delegates based on the Feb. 27 primary’s results, according to an amended resolution approved by the state committee. However, the Republican National Committee still has to approve the Michigan party’s plans.
Does any of this impact the question of whether Republicans will eventually cough up enough votes to give the prez primary bill I.E? What about the possibility that Democrats might employ the “nuclear option” of gaveling through I.E. in the Senate without a roll call vote, as the constitution seemingly requires but which has been repeatedly violated by both parties in the state House? If Democrats don’t want to go down that road, would they consider adjourning sine die early (like, as early as Sept. 1) to start the clock running toward an effective date BEFORE Feb. 27, 2024?
Answer 1): Neither Whitmer’s statement two weeks nor the state Republicans’ plans to circumvent the impact of a 2/27/24 presidential primary with an end run featuring a district caucus system would seem to have any effect on the range of possibilities outlined in the question. Anything can happen — an early sine die or a ‘nuclear option’ that could also be employed by Democrats to force I.E. on budget bills if Senate Republicans won’t give them the support they need to reach 26 votes for I.E. It’s also possible the Republican National Committee will reject Michigan’s plan for a split primary/caucus arrangement, or that the national Democrats will allow Michigan to have an early March primary (instead of Feb. 27) that might solve everyone’s problems. Stay tuned, because this may not be resolved for a while.
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Question 2): Would Gov. Whitmer have more to gain from Republicans withholding Immediate Effect on the budget than the Republicans would, considering that she’d have the power to limit the agenda of any special session she calls for afterwards?
Answer 2): Sure, the Governor and her legislative allies could use a special session to control the agenda even more than they do now, but so what? The minority party never has much control over the legislative process, let alone a determining role in crafting a state budget, either in a regular or a special session. For minority Republicans, understanding the tools at their disposal and the limit of their influence is a necessary first step to regaining political relevance. But, remember, just because the Governor alone has the authority to determine what is considered in a special session, that doesn’t mean the Legislature must OK it. Lawmakers don’t have to do anything, and the special session will wind up a big fat ZERO. Looking at history, on the rare occasions when special sessions have been called, that’s exactly what happened. Yes, because the Democrats now control everything in Lansing, if they stick together majority legislative Democrats can rubber-stamp anything Whitmer wants (and that they want), but they can do that now (and HAVE been doing it all year so far). They don’t need a special session to do it.
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The assault on the Constitution continues unabated.
Nice article, Bill.
The presidential primary kerfuffle will be grist for journalistic and political mills for a while. Film at 11 as they used to say.
As for question 2, Gov. Whitmer remembers how John Engler pushed stuff through when she was in the House. She took notes. Payback and karma can be a cur (must keep this PG as this should be family friendly material).
As for budget bills, most people will only know about this from what they see on TV or some social media stuff. Maybe Lansing covers this stuff better than Detroit does, but I am not too sure about that anymore. And if budgeting for things like schools, parks and the like cannot interest TV news to spend a wee bit of time covering Lansing and state government, I’m not sure what will.
Kristina Karamo and other GOP activists that are Trump fanatics would love the District Caucus system.
Right now the precinct delegates would overwhelmingly hand Trump convention delegates -although there is some pushback as more and more traditional Republicans are shifting toward Ron DeSantis.
The RNC – however – would frown on a District Caucus system in the presidential nomination process as it would be a snub of the rank-and-file GOP voter.
I have been part of the District Caucus system for decades and recall the 1988 debacle involving Pat Robertson and some of the shenanigans that have occurred in the years following when you have party professionals managing the delegate process. I am for having a presidential nominee being voted for at an open primary election.
Democrats would be very smart to compromise and look statesmanlike by moving the primary four little days to March 2. What possible harm could that do them? Then Republicans might have to take on the challenge of trying to get Kristina Karamo to communicate with Mission Control back on Earth (have fun with that!)
What possible harm? Trump could lose in the primary! The Dems do not want to see that!
Was it the “traditional ” Republicans who are responsible for the present situation in Mi ?
I could not believe it but the Michigan GOP headquarters is currently a UPS mailbox in Grand Rapids.
The state party organization exists virtually. A low overhead operation.