Question 1): With the January 26 entrance of billionaire businessman Perry Johnson into the race for the Republican gubernatorial nomination, how much have the fortunes of the other candidates changed? How is Johnson himself doing?
Answer 1): After spending $13.5 million in a media blitz beginning Super Bowl week-end and extending at least till April 7, two polls, one of them independent, show Johnson surging, although he’s not yet in the lead. To make matters worse for the longtime frontrunner, John James, his campaign put out a fund-raising appeal to his supporters claiming that if James doesn’t get a quick infusion of campaign cash, his effort “could be over” and “could crash and burn.”
An independent survey late last month — conducted by JMC Analytics & Polling of Baton Rouge, Louisiana — showed Johnson narrowly trailing U.S. Rep. John James (R-MI 10), who had been the runaway frontrunner in the race before Johnson’s entry.
The JMC poll showed James with 23% support; Johnson: 20%; Mike Cox: 6%; Aric Nesbitt: 5%; Tom Leonard: 3%; and Undecided/Don’t know/Refused to Answer at a whopping 44%. The sample of 450 likely primary voters was conducted March 21-23 and had a 4.6% margin of error, meaning Johnson and James were effectively tied.
Then, this past week, another survey, conducted by 1892 Polling, also found James up by a similar 26 percent to 21 percent, with Cox, Nesbitt, and Leonard in mid-to-low single digits. Ralph Rebandt, a conservative pastor, wasn’t included. This latest poll of 600 likely Republican voters, was conducted March 25-26. Again, a huge 42% were undecided.
By contrast, back in February, just after Johnson entered the race, James was at 44 percent, well ahead of COX (5%), Johnson (4%), NESBITT (4%), LEONARD (2%) and REBRANDT, (near zero), based on a survey conducted by the same 1892 Polling outfit. Yes, some 40% were undecided.
1892 and the Johnson campaign, spearheaded by veteran campaign consultant John Yob, released a statement describing what they call “The Big Picture: Perry Johnson has surged +35% in the Republican primary for Governor of
Michigan, completely reshaping the race. At the same time, Johnson’s favorability climbs +25%
as James drops -13%. Michigan Republicans are moving toward Perry Johnson and
away from John James.”
“What remains of James’ standing is name ID — not durable support,” claims 1892, “And with limited resources, James has little room to grow and plenty of room to fall. Perry Johnson, on the other hand, has the resources to put the pedal to the metal, define this race, and consolidate Republican voters statewide. Michigan Republicans are not just considering Perry Johnson — they are coalescing around him.”
John Couvillon, JMC’s CEO, summed up his poll’s findings this way:
“There are three main takeaways from (our) poll: (1) In the Republican primary race for the governor, businessman/author Perry Johnson is running neck and neck with Congressman John James, (2) There is a fairly high undecided percentage in this race, and (3) Eliminating fraud, waste, and abuse is by far the top issue among likely Republican primary voters.
“In the Governor’s race, John James has a 23-20% lead over Perry Johnson that is comfortably within the statistical margin of error. No other candidate polls more than 6%, and 44% are undecided.
“Examining the race in more detail shows that Congressman James’s poll showing (despite his two prior statewide runs) is shaky: (1) Most of James’ lead comes from people who are not certain that they will vote in the Republican primary (James polls 19-13% among this demographic), while those who definitely plan to vote are only 23-21% for James; (2) A strong plurality/near majority of Michigan Republicans classify themselves as Trump/MAGA Republicans, and among this group, Johnson has a 24-20% lead over Congressman James. Self-described traditional/establishment Republicans are 30-15% for James over Johnson; and (3) In the three major media markets (Detroit, Grand Rapids/Kalamazoo, and Flint/Saginaw) that comprise 77% of the Republican primary electorate, the race is already and consistently within the statistical margin of error in each of those three media markets (in fact, James’ lead in those three markets in the aggregate is an even tighter 23-22%).
“Of the Republican candidates whose approval ratings were tested, James has the highest (79%) name recognition of those who have an opinion of him, and his favorability rating is 55-24%. Despite his relatively recent entry into the race, Perry Johnson’s name recognition is 66%, with a 45-21% favorability. Former Attorney General Mike Cox has 47% name recognition, and it’s 33-15% favorable/unfavorable. Neither Tom Leonard nor Aric Nesbitt have favorable + unfavorable name recognition exceeding 23%.
“In summary, the Republican primary race for Governor promises to be competitive, with two candidates (John James and Perry Johnson) comfortably ahead of other contenders and in a statistical tie.”
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I was at the Macomb County Republican Convention in February and was stunned at the standing ovation Perry Johnson received in Rep. John James’ own 10th District by precinct delegates.
The John James team distributed free hot dogs to convention goers – but the real celebrity was the 78-year-old Perry Johnson.
James was booed and cheered at the Novi state Republican convention last Saturday.
Nevertheless, I believe Congressman James remains the best GOP candidate to field this fall against the Dems and he still maintains a decent lead in polling………………………………………………………
Johnson is the only candidate aggressively communicating to voters an actual plan!
He’s actually campaigning.
James, in particular, seems to dislike retail politics and campaigning.
Perry Johnson is a populist tax reform maverick – much like Richard Headlee was in his 1982 successful quest for the GOP gubernatorial nomination.
Macomb County Republicans love these two men.
Dick Headlee lost to Jim Blanchard in the November general election.
He may have been a hero to anti-tax Republicans, but his message went over like a lead balloon to independents and Democrats in Michigan’s electorate.
Perry Johnson – if nominated via a primary election victory this August – will have a tough row to hoe among many segments of the Michigan electorate. He holds extreme views on abortion which may alienate many moderates.
John James is a decorated war veteran who has brought in many young urban blacks into the GOP fold with his story of growing up in Detroit. Establishment GOP leaders know he has the best shot at beating Jocelyn Benson this fall.
Mark M. Koroi says
(Edit)Perry Johnson is a devout Roman Catholic whose abortion views dovetail with many Catholics.
The fact John James is black is no guarantee of significant crossover voting by black Democrats. Recall in 1986, William Lucas receiving the Republican nomination for governor and losing in a landslide to incumbentJim Blanchard in the general election.
Forget whether Perry “plan” is more than a campaign gimmick, his numbers are a complete lie.
It’s pretty easy math. Michigan Income Tax is 4.25% That’s 4250 per 100,000 of income. Duh.
To get to 4747 (and if you think that number is a coincidence, I’ve got a bridge for sale, you have to NET $109,000 in income. Your MINIMUM gross with the personal deduction for a single person would be $121,000 and 133k for a married couple.
Perry might be in enough of a rich guy bubble to think that is “Average,” but at least his “veteran consultant” knows better.
There doesn’t appear to be a good future to the Republican governor’s primary race between Johnson and James
Perry Johnson has a good message – eliminate income tax and audit the government spending. I can think of 4,747 reasons why it won’t work. Plus, at 78 years of age, the average voter will think he is too old. Government is too big, but no one who has a chance has a good plan to actually fight it. MAGA, non MAGA, we are going to give Nessel a great chance to be governor.
I was a Delegate for district 1 [Houghton County]
My first time going to the convention was awesome
between the top 2 running for Governor I feel Perry Jonson delivered the best intro speech of the two
I did not meet him personally but hope to talk face to face at our Lincoln Day Dinner
just an FYI
James on vacation in the Caribbean wile asking for more money for the campaign or he will have to drop out
Himmmmm the convention musta been ”too rough” on him hudathunk
Hot diggity, two mid-week TBRS!!!
Not much to comment on other than running for office is hard. If Mr. James felt he would be coronated, well he made a mistake. If he wants it, he’ll have to work for it. And a whole harder than he has done so this far. And the fact that the GOP electorate seems entranced with the economic nonsense coming from Perry Johnson, Mr. James should have been fighting harder about a year ago.
Marian Sheridan of Lakes Area Tea Party just issued thousands of e-mails to Michigan precinct delegates trumpeting the endorsement of Perry Johnson:
“Perry is not dependent on donors. He is not beholden to any special interests he will do whats best for Michiganders. He is self-funding and has the resources to run a serious multi-million-dollar campaign. That means he can spend more time fighting Democrats and speaking directly to voters, and less time worrying about campaign donations.”