Here are the major questions that, last week, The Ballenger Report told readers should finally get answered by New Year’s Eve. As we predicted, all of them now have been responded to, with some important caveats:
QUESTION 1 was): WILL DANA NESSEL MOVE FORWARD ON EX-SPEAKER LEE CHATFIELD & DARK MONEY DISCLOSURE?
Question 2 was): WILL LAWSUITS CHALLENGING DONALD TRUMP’S ELIGIBILITY UNDER SECTION 3 OF THE CONSTITUTION’S 14TH AMENDMENT TO SERVE AS PRESIDENT BE DECIDED BY THE U.S. SUPREME COURT?
Question 3 was): WILL THE FEDERAL THREE-JUDGE PANEL FIND THAT MICHIGAN’S CURRENT STATE LEGISLATIVE DISTRICTS, CREATED BY REAPPORTIONMENT, WHICH START IN DETROIT AND EXTEND OUT INTO OAKLAND AND MACOMB COUNTY SUBURBS SO DILUTE BLACK VOTING POWER AS TO VIOLATE THE FEDERAL VOTING RIGHTS ACT?
The answers to these three questions are: 1) YES, but incompletely. Nessel still has a lot of work to do. This is apparently going to be a “rolling” series of prosecutorial decisions, probably spilling into next year. Nessel’s big news was her multiple felony charges against two aides of former House Speaker Lee Chatfield, the husband-and-wife Minard team, but what about the Big Kahuna, Chatfield himself? Silence on that so far. And what about all the “dark money” decisions that still must be made? Little on that, either, unless we can assume that the grounds for Nessel’s indictments of the Minards make us realize how badly the Legislature botched its mandate to flesh out Proposal 1 of 2022 (financial disclosure). Embarrassed lawmakers are now scrambling to pledge they are going to “take action” to stop anything like what the Minards allegedly did from happening again. Of course, they could have done this long ago, but self-interest and lack of courage got in the way.
On Question 2, the answer is again YES, but that, too, will be an ongoing saga. Sure, the Colorado supreme court shocked the ill-informed media (not including TBR) with its 4-3 decision to bar Donald Trump from that state’s ballot next year, but the court stayed its own decision because it knows it will be appealed, probably all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court, which is almost certain to overturn the Colorado edict. This won’t be decided until well into next year, either.
On Question 3, it’s YES again, but important questions remain. Yes, the three-judge federal panel found major fault with the MICRC’s addle-brained gerrymander of state House and Senate districts, which ran roughshod over the federal Voting Rights Act. But who is going to draw new maps? The flawed and incompetent MICRC? Or a special master? We won’t know until after the start of the year. Also, what about those special elections to fill vacant state House and Senate seats in Warren and Westland? If they’re impacted by the new maps, and the court says no elections can be held in ANY legislative districts going forward until the maps are straightened out, the special elections may be postponed, perhaps until late in the year, meaning that the 54-54 current D/R tie in the state House may last far longer than three months, thus torpedoing Democrats’ and Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s agenda. Stay tuned — there’s more to come on this one, too.
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Question 2): Is Governor Whitmer’s “Population Council” Report Doomed To Collect Dust?
Answer 2): Yes, the most likely fate of the “Growing Michigan Together” council report is that it will be relegated to a shelf somewhere and never touched again. Over six months, Gov. Gretchen WHITMER‘s carefully selected panel held meetings, talked, squabbled and issued a report over a Zoom call two weeks ago that made little splash outside of the Lansing bubble.
The theoretically sound, politically correct, and well-meaning text suggested a few structural changes, a few more studies, and a goal to have everyone fix Michigan’s stagnant population numbers by 2050, long after the replacements of everyone currently in office are out of office.
As MIRS newsletter reported, the report recommended no bold proposals. No preferred “revenue increase” ideas. Certainly no tax cuts.
To be fair, this sort of panel has had plenty of predecessors fashioned over many decades by governors all across America — Republicans and Democrats alike — that produce reports that never amount to a hill of beans. Governors do this because they know it’s fodder for the news media, which must focus on what the governor is telling them is important, whether they agree with that or not. Any slim chance anything will come out of the Michigan council’s findings probably went aglimmering when the Republicans recently moved into a 54-54 state House tie that may well wind up consuming most of 2024. Meanwhile, the FY 2024-25 budget has to be put together in short order and election year politics will completely take over. So, nothing will get done next year, if ever, and the state will continue to flat-line on population.
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Robert Nelson says
The MIRC is far from incompetent. Its decisions, although hardly racist, were designed to take a number of factors into consideration. They could be criticized for being too accommodating of certain interests but none of the factors they considered were ever taken into account in the years before they existed.
Jack Lessenberry says
I am a fan of Bill Ballenger , but agree with Mr Nelson
Ed Haynor says
And since all 3 federal judges were appointed by republican presidents it appears their decision was politically motivated. Don’t be surprised if Michigan appeals to the full federal appeals court.
Mark says
Judge Neff is a Democrat. Although appointed by President Bush, her appointment was part of the price paid to Democrats as part of a negotiated deal.
Ed Haynor says
Regardless, Neff was appointed by a republican president, so one has to suspect she is/was conservative enough to pass the Republican smell test.
Robert LaBrant says
Appeal of the 3-judge panel does not go to the 6th Circuit Court of Appeals, rather to the U. S. Supreme Court if the Supreme Court grants a writ of certiorari.
Tim Sullivan says
I know it is not likely, but couldn’t this go before the entire 6th Circuit en banc? Granted it is unlikely and I do agree with your implication that SCOTUS would most likely NOT grant cert.
Tim Sullivan says
Janet Neff was a Gang of 14 judge, much like Helene White. I am pretty sure that neither the late Carl Levin, nor Debbie Stabenow, would waste one of the Democrats they could name on a closet Republican.
As for the MiCRC, I have commented on them before and I have my issues with them. Given what they’ve done, I suspect the panel will go with a special master(s), one of whom would probably be Sean Trende who helped draw Virginia’s lines. He wrote about that in RealClearPolicy or Real ClearPoliticsaround November 9th. You might enjoy reading it.
Tim Sullivan says
Nice article, Bill, and once again, a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all the TBR family.
QUESTION 1: Really should be 1A, 1B and 1C.
For 1A, it appears that Dana Nessel and the AG’s office are moving slowly and deliberately. I would suspect that more indictments will come closer to Election Day 2024.
You’re right that she is a bit hampered by the legislature’s actions regarding Prop 1. It seems that Democrats and Republicans like dark money and minimizing disclosure. Who’d have guessed that? At the risk of sounding a bit cynical, it seems that Prop 1’s push on disclosure was more of a Trojan Horse to loosen and modify term limits. And if it was, maybe it’s time to cue up Roger Daltry and The Who – “Won’t get fooled again” – when they come back with something similar.
For 1B, of the seven Democrat on the Colorado Supreme Court, three of them felt you needed an actual conviction of insurrection not the mere allegation of same. I suspect that SCOTUS will undo Colorado’s decision fairly quickly. As for the Michigan Supreme Court, I believe that SOS Benson has opined that Trump would have to remain on the ballot. They should listen to her. He’s gained strength with each indictment as there are lots of folks out there who believe he is being selectively prosecuted. The best way to stop Trump is to make sure he loses an actual election.
For 1C. The MiCRC is a particular bugaboo for me, and not because I was not selected to sit on it. One of the first things they did was give themselves a 40% pay hike from 25% of the Governor’s salary to 35%. Not bad for workers who, in state government parlance, are non-career, limited term appointments. As a 4+ decade veteran state government service before I retired, it would have been nice if actual career employees could have done that. Then we had a commissioner whose attendance record rivaled the late Ethel Terrell’s record when she was in the State House. And then they select districts that were not square, did not represent communities of interest (Ferndale and Highland Park? Yeah, right), and had an understanding of the Voting Rights Act that strained credulity. In their defense, when the VRA was passed, there was much de facto (and previous de jure) segregation in housing patterns with discernible black ghettos. Now, our housing patterns are segregated, but more on wealth than ethnicity. Had they recognized that, they may have wound up with a couple of odd-looking districts that moved around various street corners to capture enough non-white voters to appease the VRA. But they did not do that, and we have what we have. A unanimous three judge panel striking them down, though Judge Neff (the only Democrat on the panel) that the other two were too harsh. (No, they weren’t).
Personally, I think the panel will call in a special master, or two. I still volunteer folks from the TBR family. Give us some office space in Detroit or Lansing, a few cases of beer, some pizza, access to Rapid Copy, and we can probably turn something out in a couple of weeks, tops. And at least I won’t ask for a 40% pay hike. The most interesting thing is how this will affect the two vacant districts. A prolonged 54-54 split may require a return of the stereo speakers we had for a couple of years in the Engler administration. And if we’re lucky, that will force each side to be at least civil to one another.
QUESTION 2: You’re right. The commission was long on talk, short on proposals. We’ve seen this bipartisan game before during both Democrat and Republican administrations. Platitudes in lieu of policy, especially policy proposals that would make large segments of the voting population quite upset. A perfect example of activity masquerading as accomplishment. Makes me drift back to the days of my state employment.
Once again, Merry Christmas to all! Have a happy, healthy and safe 2024. And buckle your seatbelts, election season appears to be more interesting than usual.
Matt Crehan says
ANSWER 1). The correct answer to this question is not only yes, but a resounding YES! Not only is Chatfield a Conservative, he is a Christian Conservative. In the eyes of Nessel, that’s two strikes against him; BEFORE he is even suspected of any wrong doing. The strategy here is simple. Go after two parties that no one outside of Lansing has ever heard of, then pressure them to turn on their former boss in exchange for leniency. This duo’s testimony will give Nessel what she needs to throw the book at Chatfield, and one things for certain, the book will not be a Gideon Bible. (which she would have to swipe from a motel after sleeping off the effects of over-indulgence at MSU). Forget about anyone with the power to do anything making any moves against dark money, which benefits anyone who can get their hands on any of it.
ANSWER 2) Yes, plan on SCOTUS being requested to chime in regarding this latest saga concerning The Donald. So far, no one has found out that the limo bearing the license plate “DJT” was double parked on a New York street for a full five minutes. The moment that this evidence surfaces, an immediate howl will rise forth from New York AG’s office with an immediate request to arrest and confine The Donald in a windowless cell, with only bread and water being served until trial time; the Death Penalty demanded upon conviction. The fact that he wasn’t even in the limo, just like all the other charges against him, is irrelevant.
ANSWER 3) Yes, this was a foregone conclusion. Even the most partisan or non-partisan person immediately realizes that the City of Detroit has enough of a population to encompass seven Representative and at least two Senate districts. Looking at the crooked maps that this supposed impartial commission adopted justified immediate outrage by those affected. In case this group forgot, there are already lines in place, called municipal boundaries, in which Representative and Senate districts should be confined to the extent possible. This cadre of folks was charged with taking the partisan leanings out of redistricting; they replaced them with ludicrous lines that a cocaine addict couldn’t snort. The fun, of course, is just beginning. Redrawing these lines will be about as enjoyable as untangling a bucket of rusty fish hooks. Plan on nothing being done promptly, unless the task is turned over to the 13 members of Michigan’s Congressional Delegation, with 2/3 majority being necessary to approve the new lines. (Due to the time constraints, the fewer people involved the better; look for the appointment of a special master who will report directly to the three judge panel.)
Population Council? NYET!! For decades, those holding office place unpalatable decisions in the lap of unelected parties who are instructed to tell them what they want to hear. At this point, the study, report, analysis, or whatever it is being called this week are floated to the public through the media so as to gauge the response. Most of the time the response is the same result when a drunk crashes a society wedding, but somehow the fragrance floats forth and a few of the paragraphs presented find their way into legislation, and we are all are worse off because of it.
Kurt Metzger says
The previous comments have covered most of my comments, but I must make a point about the so-called VRA “experts” that were used. The State should go after any funds paid to either Handley or Adelson.
How did everybody buy into Handley’s analysis, and Adelson’s pushing her numbers. I remember when the analysis was reported (although I imagine many details were not available), thinking that she is analyzing general election races and saying that black preferred candidates can be elected at 40 percent or so because the vast majority voted Democratic. The white-crossover trend in Wayne is even more bizarre. How could this be viewed as “expertise?”
I have read the 100+ page decision and am amazed at the discussions around VRA numbers. They knew they had no relevant primary election data and yet they went forward to push the most ridiculous BVAP and force commissioners to head out to the suburbs to keep the percentage near 40 percent.
Why was there NO ONE to push back and say how totally ridiculous this was. A successful challenge was a no brainer.
Leanne says
That is an interesting question why no significant pushback from Republicans occurred.
Black Democrats actually were a more potent driving force to oppose the Redistricting Commission.
Whuffagowie says
The glaring fact that Michigan is in a population “crisis” that was caused by the wanton slaughter of millions of victims in utero goes unnoticed. Evil has a way of biting you in the ass.
Tim Sullivan says
Yes, it does.
Royal says
Concur. While I am a firm believer that the people will get what the people want, even after sometimes suffering for years, decades, centuries, I am yet to be convinced that the people always know what the people want :(. I pray for perspective and wisdom.
10x25mm says
The Michigan Constitution of 1963 established a bipartisan apportionment commission which was every bit as dishonest and corrupt as the MICRC. The Michigan Supreme Court put the Con-Con bipartisan apportionment commission out of its misery in 1982 after its third decadal failure. The MICRC is on track to underperform the 1963 bipartisan apportionment commission, but the VNP Democratic front organization made it much more difficult to dissolve the MICRC.
Redistricting is a political process which should be performed by avowed politicians, not a bunch of lying sneaks and their devious legal conjurers.
Leanne says
Wow!
An impressive legal opinion that ripped the Redistricting Commission – which was an abject joke from its inception.
The seats in the Michigan Senate currently held by Veronica Klinefelt and Kevin Hertel will likely become Republican-controlled once a fair and equitable redistricting is performed.
VNP was a Dem insiders’ power play that succeeded until the federal court system intervened.