Question 1): With revenue from Michigan’s gas tax plummeting, there is renewed talk in the state capital of replacing the state’s levy on gasoline, or supplementing it, with something like a mileage-based user fee. Is such a change likely to happen, and, if so, when?
Answer 1): It’s got to happen eventually, but it certainly won’t in this election year. It will be a long, slow roll-out, maybe later in the decade. Michigan’s gas tax is a declining revenue source, especially with the rise of more fuel-efficient hybrid and electric vehicles, not to mention a low birth rate and an aging population that will be driving less and less as the years roll by. Lawmakers must consider replacing or altering the gas tax because it’s designed to provide the revenue that goes into “Fixing the Damn Roads” and maintaining them. A more equitable and sensible approach is to make sure that all drivers using the roads are paying their fair share. That includes exploring options other states are adopting, such as a vehicle miles traveled or a road usage charge. If Michigan is going to catch up on fixing and maintaining its infrastructure, we’re going to have to consider these and all the other options that are on the table to generate the revenue needed long-term. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer botched her initial attempt to do something dramatic in 2019 by proposing something she said during her campaign she wouldn’t do — a whopping 45 cent-per-gallon hike in the gas tax, which was DOA in the Legislature and will be in the future. Her attempt to end-run the lawmakers with bonding wasn’t nearly enough to solve the problem, and she has failed to work with legislators on a more sensible, permanent fix that will include local and municipal roads and streets that have been thrown under the bus.
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Question 2): Donald Trump’s latest position on abortion is that it should be dealt with state-by-state, just as the U.S. Supreme Court has ruled. Was this a deft move by Trump, and how likely is it to help Republican candidates running for offices lower on the ballot?
Answer 2): It probably helps Trump himself, and it puts a damper on the chatter by various Republicans around the country that there should be a nationwide ban on abortion, which, by the way, won’t happen and, if it did, would be very unpopular politically. Other than that, Trump’s pronouncement puts down-ballot Republicans in a bind where they will need to affirm their position, not just state-by-state, but district-by-district, as they navigate this election year. That carries significant risk for Republicans on an issue that has been an election winner for Democrats. In short, Trump has foisted off the abortion issue onto the rest of his party, hoping that a state-by-state approach won’t impact him. But it already has — every time since last month that he’s appeared in a particular state he’s asked to comment on that state’s current abortion law, and what he thinks of it (Arizona and Florida are good examples). Meanwhile, every state and local Republican candidate must be prepared to answer where he or she stands on the matter.
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Question 3). Republican lawmakers in Lansing are calling for Gov. Gretchen Whitmer to send the Michigan National Guard to the nation’s southern border on the Rio Grande to help beleaguered federal and state officials in Texas and Arizona with the migrant ‘crisis.’ Is this likely to happen, and, if it does, is this an idea that will help GOP candidates in this year’s elections?
Answer 3): It won’t happen on Whitmer’s watch, and Republicans won’t be helped for suggesting it. The issue might play well with some elements of the Republican base, but it’s unlikely that using Michigan ‘soldiers’ as political props will appeal to the broader electorate. It would cost taxpayers’ money (maybe some $8-10 million), and the electorate would want to know how much of an impact the Michigan National Guard would be likely to have.
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Leanne says
I recall the late William Lucas running for governor in 1986 on an absurd platform to send the Michigan National Guard into Detroit to stem the pandemic crime situation occurring in the inner city.
Critics called it rank political grandstanding and ignored the National Guard’s controversial conduct in Detroit in 1967 when the Guard and local police occupied inner-city areas and dozens died and hundreds wounded in violence.
Michigan has no serious impact from the illegal alien border crossings that states like Arizona, California or Texas may have. 83% of all murder warrants issued by the Maricopa County District Attorney name illegal aliens as defendants.
Targeting illegal aliens with law enforcement and quasi-military groups is, however, a favorite pastime of GOP right-wing elements in Michigan. “Law and order” is a euphemism for targeting minorities and immigrants among the Michigan conservative elements.
Jack Lessenberry says
We old-timers and scholars remember the disaster that ensued when the Michigan National Guard was sent to Detroit in July, 1967. We might well see a ghastly similar scenario if anyone was crazy enough to send them to the nation’s southern border. Didn’t the nation use to have an army?
Tim Sullivan says
As I recall, LBJ later sent in the army. Greenfield Road saw lots of military traffic.
Mark M Koroi says
LBJ invoked the Insurrection Act to authorize the U.S. Army to assist the Michigan Nation National Guard, Michigan State Police and Detroit Police Department to restore order in Detroit.
I lived near 8 Mile and Woodward in Detroit when armored vehicles carrying U.S. Army troops arrived in a convoy proceeding down 8 Mile Road from Selfridge ANG Base in Harrison Township decamped at the Michigan State Fairgrounds in 1967. Many of the U.S. Army troops were fresh out of tours of duty in Vietnam.
The Posse Comitatus Act forbids the use of U.S. Armed Forces against civilians and this was one of the few times the federal government actually deployed Army troops against their own populace.
The final toll: 43 dead and over 1,000 wounded. John Hersey’s book “The Algiers Motel Incident” was the of the better chronicles analyzing the events of that era.
Tim Sullivan says
Nice article, Bill. Skubick needs to have you on OTR more often if only for the institutional knowledge imparted. Maybe I am a little weird, but as a retired state employee the reporters seemingly lack of concern over what was happening to the Auditor General baffles me. EVERY ONE OF THEM needs to make friends with Auditory General staff. The source for potential news is tremendous and their staff does not give you press releases to use as news stories (editorial rant on my part, sorry). And now a few comments.
QUESTION 1: You are spot on right in your last three sentences, especially the last one. A chance to work with the legislature – and share both credit and blame on the roads by lifting and borrowing from the group Snyder had on this issue – was simply pissed away. Instead of channeling her inner Pete Townshend (Join Together With the Band), she chose Frank Sinatra (I Did It My Way) with the resultant incomplete success you described above. Had she tried working with the legislature, we might have a solution, or at least a choice of options, to deal with the financing of roads. (And yes, I understand this would require the GOP to overcome it aversion to hiking any tax, but they did for Snyder in his first term – the pension tax – so it can be done). I suspect that the reason was she had spent her entire career in the minority in both houses, and I suspect she simply did not want to give ANY Republican ANY credit for anything. “Owning” your opponents looks good to the base, but is not necessarily a good way to govern. Now we have the mess that we have. And since Mr. Peabody has not yet invented the Wayback Machine, we don’t get a Mulligan on this issue.
There is no real easy way out of this. Gas taxes, like all consumption taxes, have the greatest negative impact on those with the least amount of money. Raising the income tax and diverting some of it to roads is an easy non-starter. Cameras catching license plates and sending monthly bills to residents and non-residents alike won’t go over well, but it does work for other states so it can work here. Unfortunately, I don’t have an answer for this which makes me as qualified to comment on this as any legislator or person in the Governor’s office.
QUESTION 2: Donald Trump looks at polls, their impact on him, speaks/twits/comments accordingly. Oddly enough, the 16-week ban he seems to like right now closely approaches the position of Islam which feels ensoulment occurs at 120 days. The one thing it does do is keep the media from talking about Biden’s position which is truly more interesting. Back on March 31st, the Roman Catholic Archbishop of Washington, Cardinal Gregory, was asked by Ed O’Keefe about this. The exchange between Ed, Cardinal Gregory and the Episcopal Bishop Budde is as follows:
CARDINAL GREGORY: I WOULD SAY THAT HE’S VERY SINCERE ABOUT HIS FAITH. BUT LIKE A NUMBER OF CATHOLICS, HE PICKS AND CHOOSES DIMENSIONS OF THE FAITH TO HIGHLIGHT WHILE IGNORING OR EVEN CONTRADICTING OTHER PARTS. THAT- THERE IS A PHRASE THAT WE HAVE USED IN THE PAST, A “CAFETERIA CATHOLIC,” YOU CHOOSE THAT WHICH IS ATTRACTIVE, AND DISMISS THAT WHICH IS CHALLENGING-
BISHOP BUDDE: OR AS THOMAS AQUINAS WOULD SAY, YOU, YOU ALLOW YOUR CONSCIENCE TO GUIDE YOU.
ED O’KEEFE: IS THERE- IS THERE SOMETHING ON THE MENU HE’S NOT ORDERING? IN YOUR VIEW? SO TO SPEAK.
CARDINAL GREGORY: WELL, I- I WOULD SAY THERE ARE THINGS, ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF THE LIFE ISSUES, THERE ARE THINGS THAT HE CHOOSES TO IGNORE, OR HE USES THE- THE CURRENT SITUATION AS A POLITICAL PAWN RATHER THAN SAYING, LOOK, MY CHURCH BELIEVES THIS. I’M A GOOD CATHOLIC, I WOULD LIKE TO BELIEVE THIS. RATHER THAN TO TWIST AND TURN SOME DIMENSIONS OF THE FAITH AS A POLITICAL ADVANTAGE.
As this exchange shows, Cardinal Gregory is what in Catholic terms is described as a tame red hat. Of note, Ed did not really ask follow up questions which is why Trump’s position is reported on. On the issue of abortion, the faith the President purports to adhere to holds that abortion is murder. Whatever faith former President Trump adheres to, does not. The real question is whether someone who lies about his faith, is there anything they won’t lie about. But I suspect that is a question Ed O’Keefe did not want to ask and Cardinal Gregory did not want to answer.
QUESTION 3: Sending the Michigan National Guard to the US/Mexico border? It appears that the GOP legislators have confused activity with accomplishment. I understand how they think they can win on this given the murder of Ruby Garcia by an illegal alien or undocumented immigrant, but I doubt this will fly. It requires media coverage and if there is one thing the Michigan GOP legislators have NOT been able to do is get media coverage they want.
HAPPY CINCO DE MAYO! Drink a Dos Equis or Modela Negra.
Bill Gelineau - 2018 Libertarian Candidate for Governor says
Bill. It only takes a few more dumb decisions in Government to get things to change. In 2018, I proposed a comprehensive change to Defend the Guard, which posited the Governor (as Commander in Chief of the Guard) to oppose any President ordering the Guard ANYWHERE without a Declaration of War by Congress.
Republican Steve Johnson – together with some Democrats, proposed Defend the Guard for Michigan in 2020. It continues to language in Committee.
You are right. Governor Whitmer would have to eat her words that she would not violate the Principles laid out in the DTG Plan.
From Watts to Detroit, Kent State to Fallujah to the Rio Grande. The Guard should not EVER be a political tool. Unwise Executives of any stripe should have a Congressional Act before using our men and women in these ventures.
John Smith says
Where is the evidence that gas tax revenue is plummeting?
Don’t accept questions with faulty premises.
10x25mm says
The “gas tax is plummeting” lie was created by Gov. Snyder to bully the Legislature into passing his 2015 MDoT contractor pork enhancement act.
The current Michigan gas tax generated $1.19 billion in revenue in FY2023, which is 46% more than the $ 815 million in revenue the tax generated in 2014. And the highest amount ever collected.
Royal says
Hey Bill! Did you hear me cheering you on while you appeared on OTR this week? Well, mebbe not, but the sentiment was there as I watched.
Wrt Q#1: Considering I don’t see a gas tax associated with my property tax bill, by process of elimination, all gas taxes to-date appear to be some form of consumption tax; whether miles driven, fuel used, or fuel purchased, in the case of the suppliers. And, yes, consumption taxes are confiscatory and land on the economically dis-advantaged harder.
But until gas, or electricity, grow on trees, a consumption tax is going to be the most fair, in my opinion.
My plea is that it doesn’t come at the cost of a loss of my rights, such as Caesar surveilling my vehicle. As I recall, when tail-pipe emissions were, and will be, manditorily checked, we had to provide personal and serviced vehicle information. While I don’t like this approach either, it seems less intrusive to provide this info (VIN plus current miles) as we purchase fuel/electricity, than cameras. We provide more than this when signing our homs up for gas and electric service.
As an aside, maybe we shouldn’t allow regulated monopolies of our fuel suppliers. Regulated to a minimal modicum, not monopolies. Let the free market work and Caesar won’t need to come sniffing.
Wrt Q#2: The religious have literally prayed to have the Roe abomination taken away, and they finally got it – with Trump. Thank God! But, oh, watch the pharisees who latched onto this position b___ch, p_ss and m__n (BPM) now that it is finally getting adjudicated the way it should be.
“. . . There should be a nationwide ban . . .” – Are you kidding! Having it adjudicated by the states is exactly what removing Roe does. Sheesh.
“. . . Trump’s pronouncement puts down-ballot Republicans in a bind where they will need to affirm their position, . . .” – Awww, poor babes. Actually having to state what they are for/against. Tsk, tsk BPMers.
“That carries significant risk for Republicans . . .” – Yep, every politician, Dem or Repub, will have to either start making sense, or decline office. BPM, BPM. How enlightening.
BTW, if politicians start making sense, I see absolutely no risk for Repubs. Asking mothers to carry a child to viability, that they presumably asked for the “night” they got pregnant, is a stance I would argue any day versus infanticide.
“Trump has foisted off the abortion issue onto the rest of his party, . . .” – No! I reject this totally! BPMing members of his party are trying their best to foist the responsibility onto Trump. They said they wanted this, they got it, now they want to claim buyers remorse. Phooey!
“. . . every time since last month that he’s appeared in a particular state he’s asked to comment . . .” – I don’t see Trump sweating the issue that closet pro-choicers do. All he does is clarify each state’s position relative to all the other states. Refreshing.
BTW those espousing life begins at conception need some introspection. Life begins, yes, and God knows them. But they are not viable yet. My wife and I experienced one ears ago, and I still remember and mourn our loss. But it happens. Losing a viable babe would have been devastating to us.
During most of the time women are asking for legalized abortions, it mostly over-laps the time that natural miscarriages can occur due to a myriad of reasons. God seems to have a built in mechanism for eliminating poor conceptions. I understand that aborting a pregnancy mistake is not the same as a miscarriage. But I can see not outlawing what hardhearted humans take out on their mistakes while the babes are still not viable. Caveat: I don’t want my government (and hence me) paying for it.
The time between natural miscarriages and viable babies, is getting shorter and shorter. While I don’t want my government paying for ANY abortion two consenting adults initiated (including funding Planned Parenthood), I am agreeable that my government (and hence me) provide financial assistance to any couple agreeing to carry an unwanted pregnancy to viability up to and including a C-Section at the point of viability. Abortions post viability, in my book, is infanticide and should be treated as such.
Sorry Bill, you punched my button on this one.
Wrt Q#3: As mentioned earlier by somebody, “Michigan has no serious impact from the illegal alien border crossings . . . “ . . . I’m sorry, I love minorities, and I love legal immigrants. But one illegal migrant infraction is one too many. And Michigan has experienced them up to and including murder. Why can’t the MI GOP, for once, just focus on Michigan’s ILLEGAL IMMIGRANT situation? This can be done long before calling out any MNG.
I may have mentioned elsewhere my account that my Dad and I had established a yearly tradition of attending the summer Yankee/Tiger double header each year since my little league years. Sorry, I was a Yankee fan as a youngster. So, my Dad and I happened to be visiting Tiger Stadium the day the ’67 riots broke out. As a pre-teen kid, I was scared to ever-livin’ death and for one was totally gratified the MNG, and later the Army, were called upon to put down the hysteria. Yes, I mourn the hurt and the lives lost. But those days hit closer to me, a kid, and thousands of other kids, than even the Vietnam war and the Dominican Republic civil war which were also occurring around then.
Pardon my verbosity. I kept it as short as my anxiety allowed me . . .
10x25mm says
Alternatives to the gas tax will allow out-of-state vehicles to escape payment for road upkeep in Michigan. Also note that gas taxes are looted by the school aid fund and other purposes such as localities’ pension funds. Michigan residents would have to pick up the gas tax revenue out-of-state residents now pay for passenger vehicles, as well as the amount heavy trucks now pay directly and through IFTA and fuel purchases.
Alternatives to the gas tax also increase lump sum costs at time of registration which are already burdensome in Michigan due to our astronomical car insurance rates. This will crush lower income drivers and incentivize politicians to eventually create income-based road taxes. Income-based road taxes will introduce a new level of complexity to the tax code and provide a sinecure for more bureaucrats.
tom shields says
No one is going to pass a gas tax increase in an election year. And it won’t happen in lame duck with no one being termed out this year.
dan murphy says
The replacement of the gas tax revenue may be an issue that may never be resolved. The ensuing public and political debate will be fiery and divisive .Also ,with EV,S (passenger and Semi trucks ) weighing thousands of pounds greater, road maintenance and road building will be even more costly, and with less revenue to work with. At one time Environmentalists lighter weight vehicles under the pretense of “saving the Environment”. Now the Climate Change Industry ,under the guise of “zero carbon production, is demanding zero emission E.V.’s which require much more resources to produce, and the economic consequences much greater Nationally and world wide . Are Monetary Interests the prime Lobbyists which have hijacked Th Environmental Movement ?!
Matt Crehan says
Answer 1) If wHiter had her way, the gas tax would be raised, AND a mileage based user fee would be implemented yesterday, if not before. All the supposed projections about the takeover of highways by electric vehicles are spawning this discussion. But it appears that electric vehicles are not all they’ve been touted to be. So don’t look for gas pumps to disappear anytime soon. For the small percentage of electric vehicles that will be on the road, they can pay their way just like the internal combustion engines do. Simply charge the electric vehicles a user fee while their charging. It’s the most obvious solution to an almost non-existent problem. Plug-in, Pay and Proceed on your way. (Pump, Pay, and Proceed if you have a tank; something conventional vehicles have been doing for decades.)
Answer 2) Not only was deft, it was Brilliant!! In states that are pro-life it works, as most elected officials in those states are also pro-life. In states that are pro-infanticide, it also works as most elected officials who share those warped sentiments can breath a sigh of relief. DJT needs to blunt the abortion issue as much as possible, as it creates mass hysteria on both sides of the aisle. By simply following the lead of SCOTUS, he merely reaffirms the Dobbs decision.
Answer 3) wHitler won’t send the guard to the border of the US and Mexico anymore than she would send them to the border of the US and Canada in an election, or any other year. The illegal alien invasion is by design; designed to create more DEMONcrat voters–never mind that these votes will be just as illegal as those casting them. But it’s good optics for the Republican to make the request, if only to demonstrate the indecisiveness and ineffectiveness of wHitler.