Question 1): There are plenty of aspirants who claim they’re running for the Republican nomination for Michigan governor next year, but that didn’t stop former state House Speaker Tom LEONARD from announcing last week that he’s getting into it, too. Meanwhile, the likes of Kevin RINKE, Tudor DIXON, and even Perry JOHNSON and possibly others are evidently thinking about it as well. Early polls show U.S. Rep. John James (R-Macomb Co.) is the current front-runner based largely on name ID stemming from his runs for U.S. Senator in 2018 and 2020. He also is believed to have access to more campaign cash than any of his potential opponents. Do more candidates hurt or help James’s chances of winning the nomination? And does anybody have a clear “lane” to the nomination?
Answer 1): It’s all about “lanes” — such as who is the most “pure MAGA?” Who is the most moderate center-right? For voters scared about crime, who’s the tough cop in the group? Also, of course, who can raise the necessary moolah to get his or her message out, no matter what the lane? Leonard’s candidacy probably hurts Aric Nesbitt, the state Senate minority leader, since they’re similar in ideology and legislative experience and may be drawing from the same well of possible donors. Same goes for ex-Attorney General Mike Cox. It’s to be expected that all the candidates will follow the Trump playbook, so none of the other non-John James candidates will stand out, seemingly giving James even better odds.
However, while James is the front-runner now, he doesn’t automatically have Trump’s blessing, particularly since Trump has already said in public that he doesn’t want James in this race. The president wants James to stay put and try to hold onto his Congressional seat to help the GOP retain its tenuous U.S. House majority. It’s way too early to know whether Trump might back another candidate; if he does, that can quickly change the landscape– and there are 13 months to go until the 2026 GOP primary.
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Question 2): In the shadow of a series of “No Kings” demonstrations across the nation two weeks ago, what is the biggest benefit progressives are getting from these 50501 (50 states/One Movement) protests?
Answer 2): The success of the “No Kings” protests showed that the anti-Trump coalition has a lot of enthusiasm going into 2026. Democrats and progressive groups may be able to turn that enthusiasm into a major fundraising haul, because donors love to give to the side with momentum. They can also register new potential volunteers who attended.
The rallies spotlighted issues such as Trump’s aggressive immigration enforcement and gave Democrats something new to rally around. In the last two election cycles, Democrats were keyed into abortion rights, but these rallies expanded the message and gave different constituents something different to voice their opinions about.
However, there’s some reason to believe that Democrats were simply using their hatred of Donald Trump as a way to give their base an emotional outlet even while they’re pushing policies most Americans don’t support. In the same way, progressives cheering the nomination of New York Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani for NYC mayor may have just handed an unexpected gift to the GOP, in the Empire State and elsewhere.
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Question 4): In what way, if any, has politics defined how Americans view the President’s bombing of nuclear sites in Iran?
Answer 4): Partisan politics has taken over everything. Former President Barack Obama bombed Libya without consulting Congress, Former President Bill CLINTON bombed under similar circumstances, and Hillary Clinton said she’d bomb Iran if she were president. However, Democrats — except for many who are Jewish — feel anything Trump does is so abhorrent that bombing Iran must be condemned. Meanwhile, the MAGA right would follow Trump into Dante’s Inferno no matter what he does.
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What is amazing to me is how many on the Right claim to follow the Prince of Peace — and yet follow blindly the idea of bomb, bomb, bomb. What would Billy Graham say?
Generally, all the efforts to delay the CABAL in Tehran from getting a nuclear bomb is a good thing. Execution by the military was flawless.
Unlike Libya and other examples, the Madmen in Iran (and they are all men)… may have lone wolves we’ll be dealing with for a long time.
Like many serious problems, I’m not sure ANY principle can address the many considerations. I’d like to think even Trump is relying on SOMEONE for solid advice.
Billy Graham was quite clear on the subject of the American military and war. His preaching was starkly at odds with your blithering talking point.
Perhaps you’ve forgotten how embarrassed Graham was, when after being a shill for Nixon for years, he learned the truth about Watergate and swore off partisan politics.
It always appeared that Richard Nixon’s spirituality was a polite fiction created by Billy Graham. Graham did not swear off politics after Watergate as much as he had little entre with Nixon’s successors.
This had nothing to do with Billy Graham’s steadfast support for the U.S. military, which never wavered – before, during, or after Watergate.
As usual, Bill Gelineau makes a lot of sense. He’s the sort of citizen we need more of.
I don’t know if many Democrats oppose the attempt to stop Iran from making progress toward nuclear weapons at this point, but the obvious criticism is that if Trump hadn’t pulled us out of the treaty with Iran this might not have been necessary. In addition, while the attack may discourage Iran, it also may tell them development of nuclear weapons is necessary for survival. While our bunker buster bombs go down to 200 feet before exploding (we are told), Detroit has salt mines more than 1100 feet below the surface. The claim that Iran’s nuclear program has been obliterated is doubtful. Can Iran develop nuclear weapons, or buy one from an existing nuclear power, in the face of threats of further attacks by Israel and/or the US? I would have preferred we not take the chance. Continuing, and extending, the original treaty might have led to a far better outcome than what we have now.
Check out how Israel developed their atomic bomb:
(A) purchased “yellowcake” uranium in the 1960s from Argentina – reported to the U.S. via Canadian intelligence agency personnel;
(B) purchased “heavy water” from Great Britain via a Norwegian company “Noratom” while expressly representing the water would NOT be used for other than peaceful purposes;
(C) gained expertise in atomic energy matters via joint research with the French government that gave Israeli nuclear scientists incidental access to French detonation reports generated documenting nuclear bomb testing in the South Pacific Ocean;
(D) constructed its Dimona nuclear reactor site with French supervision that was only detected by the U.S. during a U-2 overflight in 1958;
(E) received training and technology transfers from the Atoms For Peace program initiated by Dwight Eisenhower in the 1950s.
In 1967, the U.S. government gifted Iran a nuclear reactor. In other words, America encouraged Iran to initiate atomic energy facility construction.
Both Iran and Israel were facilitated in advancing nuclear scientific technology by America.
The Manhattan Project was mostly a Jewish undertaking. Never would have happened without Jews. Fermi wasn’t Jewish, but his wife was. All of the other significant MP scientists were Jewish. Israel had no problem assembling a nuclear physics team to develop their bomb.
The only real constraints of the JPCOA would have expired this year, 2025. All JPCOA constraints would have expired by 2030.
The JPCOA was not a serious attempt to restrain Iran from nuking Israel. It was another Obama farce.
What Republican campaign for governor? Compare where we are to this point in the 2010 or 2018 cycle.
Cox is the only one on the trail, day in and day out.
Nesbitt can’t make the news. Matt Hall has supplanted him. Does he even have any senators endorsing him? Maybe one or two. I doubt he can claim to have the support of the whole Senate caucus.
I don’t know Leonard’s play, except to maybe get a presidential appointment or a contract from someone in exchange for dropping out of the race. Or maybe he hopes James or Cox will pick him as the running mate.
Aric Nesbitt showed up – along with Mike Cox and Anthony Hudson – at an Eastside Republican Club event in Grosse Pointe Woods last weekend and held a dinner event in Plymouth last Thursday.
Nesbitt will be campaigning Oakland County next month.
Whew Bill, you’re outdoing yourself this time. Timely topics, as usual.
Wrt Q#1: Sorry, I never learned to paddle in my designated political swim lane. Seems a great way to get blindsided by the next populist movement. Might be why conservatives usually fall for the latest liberal emotional fad.
I do agree with you that it sure seems the establishment candidates (Nesbitt, Leonard and Cox. Maybe Rinke, too) are doing a great service for John James by cannibalizing their overlapping planks. Gives the MIGOP something to do while James is sequestered in DC. Wouldn’t it be nice if Tudor Dixon miraculously became politically nimble and could think on her feet? I really think her heart is more in tune with the quiet majority.
Wrt Q#2: I think Caesar’s party has shown their true colors for some time now, as it grows redder and redder, transitioning from socialist to communist, more each year. Without media guidance, it is hard for the lay voter to see every new populist stance (No Kings, BLM, ESG, DEI, woke, Latinx, LGBTQ+, CRT, pronouns, l-m-n-o-p), they roll out is straight out of Marx’s play book, as the party elite ready their Bolshevik script-flip for when critical mass is achieved. This scat is the best fodder for converting principled democrats into republicans that only principled republicans are aware of.
Wrt Q#3: Ever notice how the media, when discussing America’s adversaries, play the backdrop of each countries’ military parades? Gives us something to fear, gives them a recruiting tool. Seems fitting we had one too. Reports say recruiting is up big-time.
Wrt #4: Interesting how broad-brush emotional pictures can work up the natural spirits within folks. Facts have nothing to do with it. Conjures reflections from the fundamental question asked in the ’60’s that Americans are still reluctant to speak of in polite audiences. ‘Would you rather be red than dead?’. Socialists answered, RED, long ago. Simpleton capitalists answered, DEAD, until they listened to what that sounded like. Very clever question. But bottom line, once one considers all the alternatives, is that there really are some things worth fighting for. And all should bow their heads to those who give, and gave, their lives, and futures, to give us that choice. We may not have it all that much longer.
Thanks Bill
Excellent comments.Mark Koroi-you get it. As the host of the Plymouth dinner event for Nesbitt-even I was a little surprised at the steadily growing groundswell of support for NESBITT for GOVERNOR.
By far, Nesbitt was the BEST candidate on FLASHPOINT-WDIV on Sunday, June 29. Hint: I’m glad I have run 2 marathons and finished each in 4 hours.
The parade was ordered by a narcissistic megalomaniac who craves attention. It was a waste of taxpayer dollars and a disgrace. The reason for the “No Kings “ events is we have a leader who is acting like a king .
Interesting that one of Leonard’s first major posts after announcing was about the importance of mental health and programs to address it are to crime matters and society as a whole….at a time when the rest of the Trump party is moving to slash access to mental health services. With massive cuts to Medicaid. You can’t be for mental health improvement and services and against Medicaid and funding local health programs. But then, hypocrisy is a basic for today’s adherents to President TACO.
Agreed Dave. The hypocrisy is palpable. We should all fear what moves the administration will come up with next.
Didn’t even get to waste fraud and abuse in Medicaid. Press release from U.S. DoJ OPA today:
“National Health Care Fraud Takedown Results in 324 Defendants Charged in Connection with Over $14.6 Billion in Alleged Fraud”
“Largest Justice Department Health Care Fraud Takedown in History
More than Doubles Prior Record of $6 Billion”
“The Justice Department today announced the results of its 2025 National Health Care Fraud Takedown, which resulted in criminal charges against 324 defendants, including 96 doctors, nurse practitioners, pharmacists, and other licensed medical professionals, in 50 federal districts and 12 State Attorneys General’s Offices across the United States, for their alleged participation in various health care fraud schemes involving over $14.6 billion in intended loss. The Takedown involved federal and state law enforcement agencies across the country and represents an unprecedented effort to combat health care fraud schemes that exploit patients and taxpayers.
Demonstrating the significant return on investment that results from health care fraud enforcement efforts, the government seized over $245 million in cash, luxury vehicles, cryptocurrency, and other assets as part of the coordinated enforcement efforts. As part of the whole-of-government approach to combating health care fraud announced today, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) also announced that it successfully prevented over $4 billion from being paid in response to false and fraudulent claims and that it suspended or revoked the billing privileges of 205 providers in the months leading up to the Takedown. Civil charges against 20 defendants for $14.2 million in alleged fraud, as well as civil settlements with 106 defendants totaling $34.3 million, were also announced as part of the Takedown…..”
How many other parasites are bleeding CMS? You need to justify the current Medicaid financial shambles to the kids who will pay for your blind largesse 50 years into the future.
10x25mm says
(Edit)U.S. Government Medicaid spending has risen from $ 118 billion in FY 2000 to $ 557 billion in FY 2024. Without any changes, it will exceed $ 900 billion in FY 2034, the year that Social Security goes bust. This is not sustainable. The economy cannot outgrow these huge deficits. And there are not enough wealthy taxpayers available to dispossess to cover these deficits. So your solicitous concern for the mentally ill will eventually devastate the Americans born in this century. You are proposing ‘devil take the hindmost’ economics.
None of the changes proposed by the House and Senate “slash access to mental health services”. They do remove fully able individuals who are not working from the Medicaid roles. The proposed changes also prevent the states from further transferring the Medicaid burden to the federal government. A program which was originally intended to be a 50/50 federal/state split is now a 70/30 split due to devious accounting by states and all manner of extraneous program offerings.
If Medicaid as currently practiced was truly essential, the states would gladly step up and pay their fair share, nu?
Senators Peters and Slotkin just voted to continue providing government-funded Medicaid coverage to 1.4 million illegal aliens today. Would you characterize this $ 10.6 billion ( $ 7,600 per enrollee) annual federal expense as “a waste of taxpayer dollars and a disgrace.”?
I spoke to one of the gubernatorial candidates about John James as well as other GOP leaders. They say:
(A) they do not believe he will receive the GOP nomination as he cannot win the outstate vote;
(B) he is a neoconservative at a time when may GOP voters are against military adventurism;
(C) he ran for statewide twice and lost to a Democrat each time;
(D) he will have problem winning the outstate vote.
West Michigan Politics reports that John James is considering withdrawing from the race for governor to focus on campaigning to retain his U.S. House seat – at a time when GOP leadership is fearful they may lose their tenuous U.S. House majority.
I just received a campaign e-mail ad from John James seeking donations and it does NOT MENTION THE OFFICE he is running for.
I know U.S. Rep James has been under tremendous pressure to seek re-election to his 10th District seat in Congress.
Some GOP insiders see him as a shoo-in for the gubernatorial nomination if he decides to seek it, however there are doubts he can win given his two prior failed runs for statewide office as a U.S. Senate nominee on the Republican side.
I still believe the Governors race belongs to Mike Duggan as an Independent, if he gets a good swath of out state and up north voters.
I spoke to many Wayne County voters that are backing Mike Duggan.
An independent voice is felt to be needed in Lansing.There is a toxic partisan environment that is driving the electorate toward candidates like Duggan.
I honestly believe he could become the next Jesse Ventura.
The outstate vote may be the key.