Are Democrats’ Policies On Electric Vehicles A Gift To Trump?
Question 1): So far, sales of electric vehicles (EVs) have been a mammoth disappointment to those who believe in them and their future as a replacement for fossil fuel gasoline in the automotive industry. Indeed, were it not for President Joe BIDEN and the vast majority of his fellow Democrats subsidizing EVs at every level of government, the market for EVs would be even weaker than it is today. Now enter former President Donald Trump, who denigrates the practicality of EVs at every turn. Trump’s attacks on EVs and their supporters at his rallies draw cheers, including from many auto workers.
Is Trump riding a political winner when he criticizes the Democrats’ investment in and support for EVs? Are Trump’s political instincts on target when he accuses Democrats of trying to foist EVs on a majority of U.S. voters who neither want nor can afford them?
Answer 1): For Michigan voters at least, Trump is dead on. Many union leaders already know that large swaths of their membership demographically fit those who are driving the realignment of the parties. It’s clear that fewer mechanical parts in EVs mean fewer jobs for Michigan workers, who would be building vehicles they themselves cannot even afford. Right now, 80% of Michigan voters don’t own, nor plan to own, an electric or hybrid vehicle over the next five years –- by choice or force. True, some polls show a majority of U.S. citizens hope EVs can be part of a cleaner, more promising future. There is a growing interest in EVs that is driven by concerns about climate change, air pollution, and the desire for energy independence. But that’s hope for what could be, not the reality staring voters in the face. The promise of a Joe Biden presidency was supposed to be a return to normalcy, not an uber-progressive agenda represented by green energy. So, yes, Biden finds himself with a significant challenge that will be hard for him to overcome this year.
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Question 2): Former state Senator Adam Hollier (D-Detroit) failed to get on the 13th U.S. House District ballot due to insufficient signatures on his petitions. He then pondered whether to mount a write-in campaign in the Aug. 6 Democratic primary. Would that have been a feasible alternative for him? In any event, he decided that such an undertaking would be futile and he abandoned such an effort. As a result, another candidate for the Democratic nomination, Detroit city councilwoman Mary Waters, picked up a quick endorsement from Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, who had earlier endorsed Hollier. Waters is trying to knock off incumbent Shri Thanedar (also D-Detroit) in the primary. Does she have a real chance?
Answer 2): Definitely. First of all, Mary Waters, who will turn 69 next month, is at least as well-kwown in Detroit as Hollier, and she’s done something Hollier never has — she’s been elected citywide as an at-large councilwoman. She was once the #2 Democrat in the state House of Representatives — the first black female House minority floor leader in Michigan history (she served simultaneously with now-Gov. Gretchen Whitmer from 2001-2006). Most important, Waters now has the luxury of running essentially one-on-one against Thanedar (there’s a second black female in the race, but she’ll poll in the low single digits). Thanedar won the Dem nod in somewhat of a freak two years ago. Yes, his millions in spending were crucial, but the biggest factor was the fact he was the only non-black running against a field of eight African-Americans who split up the primary vote among them, allowing Thanedar to win with only 28%, just 5% more than Hollier. Detroit voters are more than capable of knocking off their own party’s incumbents — witness Congresswoman Barbara Rose Collins’s defeat by former state Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (Kwame’s mother) some three decades ago. The only blot on Waters’s escutcheon was her conviction for falsifying tax records (she got probation) back in 2010 (she had been charged with conspiring to bribe a public official but the charges were reduced). She outlived that by being elected to the Detroit city council at-large in 2021. She certainly won’t outspend multi-millionaire Thanedar, but if she can raise just enough campaign cash to remind the electorate of who she is, she’ll beat Thanedar Aug. 6.
As for Duggan’s role, he knows Thanedar has always been viewed by Detroit’s political elite as a wealthy carpetbagger who is out of touch with the community. Furthermore, Thanedar and the mayor have recently butted heads on a couple of development projects. This is a way for Duggan to remove someone whom he’s viewed as a hurdle while also building alliances with other council members who support their colleague Waters’s campaign. Plus, he’s a chronic, lifelong endorser. And let’s not forget that Duggan appears to be getting his ducks in a row in preparation for a gubernatorial run in 2026. Yes, Duggan has always claimed that being Governor of Michigan is the last job he’d ever want and that he’s got his dream job as Mayor of Detroit. But he’s made similar observations in the past about his future aspirations and then quickly abandoned them.
As for Hollier, he had no choice but to throw in the towel on a write-in campaign. Yes, Duggan did it successfully in 2013 when he first ran for mayor after his petitions were thrown out on an absurd technicality. The electorate felt he’d been ‘jobbed.’ A poll commissioned by the Inside Michigan Politics newsletter showed he could win a write-in campaign against an underwhelming cast of also-rans. Duggan had ample financial backing, and the mayor’s seat was open. By contrast, Hollier is running against a multi-millionaire incumbent and Mary Waters. His fraudulent petitions don’t evoke sympathy from the electorate; instead, disgust at incompetence has been the norm. It’s too bad, because Holler had shown a lot of promise as a state senator. Now, if Waters beats Thanedar, she’ll have the job of M.C. as long as she wants it.
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Bill. Your recognition of how Michigan voters will turn is spot-on. The combination of an obsession with social policies and ignoring the will of the market keeps the Democratic Party little chance of bringing America together. Republicans again and again forfeit that same opportunity by aligning with folks like Trump – who, despite some willingness to acknowledge the majority, bends to it’s worst aspects.
I hope someone who speaks truth to their own Party will emerge. One who can say that those that have different perspectives are not “the enemy”, but simply see America differently.
Bill:
Most Macomb County GOP activists are Libertarian-oriented due to their affinity to Second Amendment, free market, anti-tax and non-interventionist policies. That puts them at odds with the traditional wing of the party.
The Michigan Democratic Party is currently being torn apart by the war in Gaza and the Biden administration supplying of billions of dollars in weaponry to support what they see as genocide.
Libertarian policies would allay many concerns that citizens rightfully have.
I certainly wish the Libertarian Party and Green Party of the United States would gain traction so their nominees would have a chance at get elected at high offices.
It is unbelievable how bad the GOP and Democratic nominees are this year – one was convicted of 34 felonies and the other is barely coherent.
Nice article, Bill.
QUESTION 1: I am not sure if dislike of EVs is the, or a key to victory for Trump. As one of those who will be dragged kicking and screaming into EVs, I do not look forward to them.
I agree that the job losses in the auto industry will be significant, and the subsidies given to get people to buy them is just another subsidy for the well-off paid for by those who are decidedly less well off. To try and get the people who will be victims of the rise of EVs to vote for those who promote the EVs, methinks it will be a very hard sell for Biden and an easier one for Trump.
QUESTION 2: What totally confuses me is after what happened to Thaddeus McCotter, why does ANY campaign not triple check their signatures before submission. James Craig and Perry Johnson didn’t and look what happened to them. And with the candidates that SOS Benson’s shop has disqualified for the primary ballot who had the same problems, it reminds me of what the late, great Casey Stengel once said about the Mets, “Can’t anybody here play this game?” Apparently not.
As for Hollier, he wants to win because he knows it is probably a lifetime post for him, so that is what drives him. For him, it would be better to run for the City Council, and if Waters succeeds in replacing Thanadar for the crime of not being black, Hollier has a shot for the at-large seat. He just has to get legitimate signatures then just win. One more loss is fatal for him – politically. If he gets legitimate signatures for the City Council and wins, he can wait for the congressional seat to become vacant again. He’s young enough to wait. But that requires knowing how to play the game. And what we have seen so far, that is questionable for Mr. Hollier. Maybe politics is not the job for Mr. Hollier.
As for Mary Waters, she has a decent resume, but she lacks money. Whether she gets any after Duggan’s endorsement is a test not only of Duggan’s weight (politically, not biologically) in Detroit, but whether she can wage what would be a rather vigorous, if not harsh, campaign. Whether she can overcome Thanadar’s money is another matter. I do not see Congressman Thanadar going gentle into that good night. It will make the August primary interesting and offer more fodder for future TBRs.
As for Mike Duggan, he wants to be Governor Duggan so he wants to placate a group he feels can help him vis-à-vis Benson or even Gilchrist in what could be a crowded Democratic primary. It’s a no-cost position for Duggan to take, he gets Waters’ support and favor and no real problems from Thanadar. Mike likes win-win scenarios, especially those that benefit him.
QUESTION #1:
The UAW in 1992 endorsed Bill Clinton for president. He later entered into NAFTA which gutted the U.S. auto industry by sending auto manufacturing jobs to Mexico. Michigan lost hundreds of thousands of jobs as U.S. auto suppliers set up operations in Mexico to take advantage of the reduction of trade barriers.
Th UAW endorsed Clinton in 1996 despite this debacle. In 2016, Michigan voters did not forget and handed Trump an impressive victory few saw coming. He was and remains a hero in Macomb County where his biggest fan, Mark Forton – a retired auto worker, retains his seat as the chairman of the Macomb County Republican Party.
NAFTA and lack of protectionist policies have destroyed the once vaunted U.S. car industry for the last several decades. The Japanese auto industry in the 1960s was a joke with their inferior tiny vehicles – now the U.S. car business is the joke – thanks to Democrats.
“God, guns and Trump!” is the rallying cry of MAGA activists in Macomb County and outstate.
QUESTION #2:
Many hope that Shri Thanedar will lose in the primary.
Progressives and Arab-Americans are distressed at his unwavering support of Israel in the current Gaza crisis. Mayor Amer Ghalib of the City of Hamtramck posted on his Facebook page why he is also endorsing Mary Waters:
“Her (Waters) position is clear, and she is one of the first to call to an end to the war and genocide in Gaza. Her opponent is the current congress member, Shri Thanedar, who stands on the dark side of history, supports genocide, and does not support the establishment of a Palestinian state…………”
Thanedar is not supporting grant funding to remediate toxic lead contamination levels in Hamtramck.
Another chicken sh*t republican who doesn’t have the courage to give their name, therefore “its” comments are meaningless.
Spot on question and answer. there are only 3% of the necessary charging stations available. This won’t be a sufficient enough issue for Trump to ride to a victory. The only intermediary partial solution is a hybrid.
I’m hoping you will devote a column to the absolutely major decision that Peter Hoekstra as Chair of the Republican party has stated “abortion is off the table, women’s reproductive rights are in the Michigan Constitution.
Governor Whitmer is the only one who wants to put abortion on the ballot
Yes, this is a major turning point for me as the only pro-choice Milliken endorsed Republican in the last 40 years as an elected state representative from Western Wayne County. I truly think this issue has been put on the shelf and to be intellectually honest no one was going to send police officers in to doctors officers and hospitals.
Scott Greenlee has taken up the cause that Republicans all across Michigan should focus on the sanctity of life
Scott Greenlee would have been a good Michigan GOP chairman – a brilliant political consultant.
Having been in and around Detroit for a few eons, I think Bill, sage though he be, overestimates the appeal of Ms. Waters, who is, at the very least, a bit underwhelming and shopworn. Also Sean Fenn will be out there shouting that Biden will make sure people have jobs. The Dems may lose in November, but nebulous worries about EVs in the future won’t be why.
The UAW’s 2023 membership is at its second lowest level in history (besting only the catastrophic year of 2010); about 370,000 active members at the end of 2023. Less than 150,000 of those active members work in Michigan; about 2 % of Michigan’s voting electorate.
The UAW’s real political strength today in Michigan is its retirees, whose (undisclosed) numbers are more than double the active member count. Those retirees have different political aspirations than active members. They want the companies to continue paying retirement benefits, even if that means adopting EVs and further sinking active member numbers. They are also severely damaged by inflation, unlike active members who receive COLAs.
UAW President Shawn Fain’s real political problem is the union’s large number of TOP (Technical, Office, and Professional) members; something more than 75,000 active members. The vast majority of UAW TOP members are university ‘ professionals’ who are avid Hamas supporters and opposed to the Biden Administration’s Israel policies. It wasn’t widely reported, but 40,000 UAW TOPs launched wildcat strikes at the University of California over Biden’s Israel policies.
Fain has to navigate a very real internal political dichotomy which could yet further fragment the UAW. He is likely to focus on local political races in 2024 and do little to advance President Biden.
The wildcat strike over the Biden administration’s Israel policies underscores the fact that Biden will lose many, many votes in Michigan and elsewhere on November 5th due to the failed foreign policy toward the Middle East – and these go far beyond the Arab-American community.
The big question who will wind up with the lost Biden votes? Green Party nominee Jill Stein and independent Cornel West will collect some – and many Arab-Americans have expressed approval with both their policies. Some Arab-Americans will gravitate toward Trump – but many more will simply not cast ballots in the presidential election this fall.
I have been attending some of the major pro-Palestine rallies in metro Detroit and many, if not most of the attendees are not even Arabic – many are black clergy and activists, some are Hispanic and many more are simply progressive Democrats disgusted with the Biden administration policies toward Israel. So the body of anti-Biden progressives may be the swing voters this fall in Michigan and other states.
Bill, thanks for more great TBR topics.
Wrt Q#1: Sorry to break it to you fellow TBR participants, the Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) is swiftly heading to the back burner. Although my background is electrical in nature, during my active years, I worked devotedly for 2 of the big 3 for over 30 years, combined. My memory effervesces with childhood experiences of riding in cars with my buddies (I would never think of doing it myself ;)) while drag-ing Woodward and other local roads. But due to the following, the ICE is facing considerable headwinds,
1) Efficiency: Electric motors have 95 – 98 percent torque efficiency. ICEs hover from 50 to 70 percent.
2) Performance: I am sure by now we are all familiar with You-tube snippets showing small econo-box EV’s smoking classic ground-pounder street rods in the quarter mile. Or EV trucks towing loaded trailers smashing trailer-less ICE trucks. These are real, not doctored.
3) Politics: Literally thousands and thousands of local, state, national and global politicians rabidly trying to do to the petroleum industry what they did to the coal industry. Gas prices are already several multiples higher than what the unfettered market would call for.
4) Battery tech is on the ascend. Improvements attained to-date is just the beginning. It’s an Elon Musk future whether we acknowledge it or not. Just like we are currently (pun?) in a Nicola Tesla world even though we venerate Edison.
Trump’s populist position is understandably more resonant in this state, but it is a dead-cat bounce.
The debate should center around,
1) Cut-off switches: EV’s are currently fitted with cut-off switches that control-freaks can use at their nefarious will. Privacy concerns.
2) Performance: Youthful frills aside, econo-boxes out-torquing ICE vehicles should be circus extravaganzas and marketing stunts. There is no need for that much take-off power. EV’s should be torque regulated.
I would strongly suggest those infatuated with the ICE to pick their favorite car now, lock it away in a garage, then be ready to haul it out during family gatherings showing the grand kids what grandpa (and Gma) the collector item they are saving for them for their inheritance.
Wrt #2#: While my interests align more with Shri, until the MI GOP gets the courage to contend in MI DNC strongholds I really can’t get all excited about one-way politics.
You posit an overly simplistic TTW comparison of ICEV and EV efficiencies. Diesel ICEVs are more efficient in the broader WTW analysis, unless you exclusively charge from solar panels on your garage roof. The difference is due to energy losses in electrical power generation and transmission (6.5% or more in Michigan), and the 25% increased mass of EVs.
A more complete analysis of relative WTW efficiencies:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/344860096_Comparison_of_the_Overall_Energy_Efficiency_for_Internal_Combustion_Engine_Vehicles_and_Electric_Vehicles
Even this analysis does not consider static storage losses from EV batteries (1% to 10% per idle day, depending upon ambient temperature) and massive losses of EV battery output in cold weather (approaching 30% with some high efficiency battery chemistries/designs).
Thermodynamics is a cruel mistress.
Very interesting subject Bill and your take on EV’s may well be correct.
I have always been perplexed at the UAW’s silence on the negative impact of EV’s on their membership but your reader’s commentary on their TOP membership power is telling. The union’s lean toward an internal demographic dedicated to putting a lot of their fellow members out of work has always seemed shortsighted for other reasons.
Michigan still makes autos, auto parts and aeronautical parts. Our economy depends on the prosperity and continued success of these workers but Mr. Fain seems to have abdicated leadership of the middle America that Mr. Reuther built that union to represent. Who can afford these EV’s? Certainly not the line worker.
If that line worker doesn’t buy the cars, and the product line dies, and he or she lose their job, who will be able to buy the proverbial middle class home in the suburbs, and prices of existing housing in cities and towns will dramatically increase, etc.
Virginia just backed away from the EV mandate leaving California to lead an increasingly tax heavy and budget weary state population in this crusade. Sorry, but it just doesn’t make sense to me.
Great discussion in any context and solid reader participation by TBR members.
The Free Press and many other news outlets posted stories last night about turmoil within Solidarity House, centered on UAW President Shawn Fain. Federal monitor Neil Barofsky opened an investigation in February to review allegations, both by Fain and against Fain, involving expenditures and claims of retaliation against UAW officers.
This is internal warfare between Fain’s grouping, ‘UAW Members United’, and the vestiges of the previous leadership, the ‘Administration Caucus’: Fain won the UAW Presidency in the union’s first direct election, in a race so close that it was decided in a runoff.
This internal warfare will constrain the activities of the UAW’s Citizenship and Legislative Committee (Community Action Program, or CAP), which is their political-legislative arm.
Interesting. Clearly in our turbulent world these days no one can get along…
In 2018, UAW-endorsed candidates at the Michigan Democratic Party Convention lost for the first time in anyone’s memory.
Patrick Miles, the former United States Attorney for the Eastern District of Michigan was upset in the delegate count by Dana Nessel. Miles was UAW-endorsed.
Rashida Tlaib that same election cycle, a progressive Democrat with no real labor backing defeated a City Council member who was endorsed by the UAW and other major labor organizations. Tlaib won and was easily re-elected in 2020 and 2022.
Gary Jones and Dennis Williams, two former UAW presidents, were convicted in Detroit of financial mismanagement and sentenced in 2021 to terms in federal prison.
The UAW and Teamsters in the 1960s and 1970s were controlled out of Detroit and were the two most powerful labor unions in America. Both derived their power from the auto industry. Walter Reuther and Jimmy Hoffa were revered by respective their rank-and-file. Teamsters Local 299 interstate truckers delivered Detroit-manufactured vehicles around the U.S.
The general public has lost confidence in labor leaders in America. Their political influence is dwindling.
Even more interesting, President Fain evidently took responsibility for TOPs from Secretary-Treasurer Margaret Mock, one of the Administration Caucus members, back in February.
President Fain thus bears ultimate responsibility for the UAW’s Hitlerjungend Local 4811 in California and their insane Juderein zones on University of California campuses.