Question 1): Does it feel as though the Michigan gubernatorial campaign is the undercard to the U.S. Senate race this year?
Answer 1): Absolutely. The last time this could be said to be true was 1966, when the battle was between incumbent Robert (Bob) Griffin, a Republican, and former six-term Michigan Democratic Governor G. Mennen Williams for the U.S. Senate seat to which Griffin had been appointed months before, on May 11, by Gov. George Romney. For that matter, Williams had had to fend off a stiff challenge from Detroit Mayor Jerry Cavanagh in the Democrats’ August primary. Meanwhile, the campaign for governor was a foregone conclusion snoozer between Romney, running for his third term, and state Democratic Chairman Zoltan Ferency. The results? Romney crushed Ferency and loaned his coattails to Griffin, who handed “Soapy” Williams the only loss of his career.
This year’s Michigan’s U.S. Senate race remains the nation’s premier contest on November 3. Because the battle for control of the U.S. Senate runs directly through Michigan, it’s impossible for any other race in the Great Lakes State to eclipse it. Also, the future direction of the Democratic Party, in Michigan and nationally, seems to hinge on the outcome of the contest between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers, although that remains to be seen. Meanwhile, it will be hard for partisans to get excited by either of the major party nominees for Governor — Jocelyn Benson or John James.
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Question 2): : Will Libertarian gubernatorial nominee Anthony HUDSON act as a spoiler for Republican John James on November 3?
Answer 2): It’s conceivable, but highly unlikely. Hudson, a former Republican, is likely to take votes away from James, but the race probably won’t be close enough to matter. We shouldn’t forget Donna Brandenburg, who will be on the ballot as the U.S. Taxpayers Party nominee — she, too, will draw votes from those who won’t plunk for James. However, Brandenburg and Hudson combined are almost certainly not going to make a difference. But wait! There’s a Green Party nominee, too — Douglas Campbell, and he will take votes from Jocelyn Benson, the Democratic nominee, just as Jill Stein took them away from Hillary Clinton in 2016. In fact, the Green vote may be larger than the votes for Brandenburg and Hudson, but it shouldn’t cost Benson victory. There’s even a write-in candidate, one Evan Space. He won’t matter, either.
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Question 3): Will the Nov. 3 general election in Michigan be decided by what we traditionally call “independents” or by the two newly transformed major parties — the Democrats and Republicans?
Answer 3): The online website Real Clear Politics breaks down Michigan political bases as roughly 34% Dem, 32% GOP, and a cohort that’s almost as big: 24.7% Independent and Unaffiliated. The Michigan polling firm EPIC-MRA just came out with a survey showing 43%Democrats, 40% Republican, and 12% Independents (the remaining 5% are Other/Undecided/Don’t know). That’s why general elections are usually won in the middle — it depends on which way the Independents break. The major parties have their bases, but what if either or both of those bases start shifting, as the Republicans have over the past decade toward Donald Trump and MAGA?
Likewise, the August 4 Michigan primary showed a Democratic base shift well underway, courtesy of the Democratic Socialists of America. The DSA openly calls for expropriation of private property, packing the Supreme Court, eliminating the Electoral College and the U.S. Senate, and abolishing the U.S. Constitution. They aren’t just another interest group; they really mean revolution.
U.S. Senate candidate Abdul El Sayed, who says he isn’t affiliated with the DSA but sounds like he is, didn’t perform strongly in an area where a winning Democrat almost always has to — Detroit. However, he ran up the score in outstate counties like Kent, Washtenaw, and Ingham and particularly in college towns. The last time this happened was in the 1972 presidential election, when George McGovern’s insurgents captured the Democratic Party. That led to white working-class folks jumping ship en masse in November to deliver a smashing victory for incumbent President Richard Nixon. Yes, these Democrats and Dem-leaning Independents (call them New Indies) returned to the fold briefly following the Watergate debacle two years later, but the damage was done. These voters had learned how to be Independent and it presaged a permanent move to Ronald Reagan’s GOP in 1980 and afterwards.
Judging from the reaction to El-Sayed’s primary win, along with the ouster of a sitting Detroit Congressman by a DSA challenger and the victory of a DSA community organizer in the 7th CD, it appears a lot of longtime Dem base stalwarts have been shaken loose from the donkey corral. Among them are African American males, who flirted with Trump in 2024. Trading the loyal Black and Jewish communities for college kids and liberal suburban women is quite a gamble.
How many of these traditional Democrats who are unhappy today will be willing to vote for Republican Mike Rogers in November, as many of their kind did for Nixon in 1972? If Rogers and GOP gubernatorial nominee John James have any chance to free themselves from the Trump/MAGA albatross around their necks and appeal to Independents and ticket-splitters in November, it has to be courtesy of disillusioned and fearful Democrats like those who deserted McGovern in 1972. It gives the Michigan GOP a credible chance 10 weeks from now.
Long term, the real question is whether, having broken the party bond this time, the potential New Indies will remain in play in the future? Are we seeing a hiccup, or a once-in-a-generation realignment unfolding in real time?
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Good article. I agree with much of it. Some added points that are worthwhile:
In 2024, the Muslim-American community was split and large chunks of votes went to Trump and Republicans over the Gaza War and October of 2024 IDF air attacks in Lebanon that killed 2,400 Lebanese, mostly civilians, that the Biden administration – particularly Kamala Harris – cheerfully lauded.
Lebanese-American leaders in Detroit, particularly Ambassador John Akouri and MIGOP vice-chair Rola Makki, organized their respective Christian and Muslim communities behind Trump.
Today the Muslim-American community in Michigan is solidly behind Abdul El-Sayed and sees him as a Jackie Robinson-like barrier breaker that would be akin to Obama as a black candidate in 2008 winning the presidency. Dr. El-Sayed would be the first Muslim in the U.S. Senate. His Democratic nomination in August was itself unprecedented for a Muslim. His momentum can beat Rogers in November.
Troy mayor Ethan Baker’s 11th U.S. Congressional District candidacy to replace Haley Stevens has been boosted by grassroots Indian-American support. Further, Dr. Anil Kumar, a urologist, has bolted from the Democratic Party over policy disagreements and is running as an independent and will siphon votes from Democratic Party nominee Jeremy Moss. Moss himself has been at odds with the El-Sayed policy positions on Israel, which is expected to damage his standing with Muslim-Americans. El-Sayed and Moss are now trying to mend fences to help each other.
A huge race is the Mike Bouchard, Jr-Christina Hines battle in the Tenth U.S. Congressional District. I believe that Hines may have the upper hand as she is a Macomb County resident and most of that district is in Macomb County.
Macomb County is the home to moderate and conservative ethnic Democrats and El-Sayed is anathema to this demographic segment for his socialist leanings as much as he is in the Jewish-American community for his criticism of Israel.
The Will Lawrence candidacy in the Seventh U.S. Congressional District is historic as he is an outstate DSA member trying to unseat Rep. Tom Barrett. Barrett is harmed by the Iran War’s unpopularity. Lawrence could win.
Leanne, I know that Dr. Kumar had endorsed Mike Duggan and incurred the wrath of Mr. Hertel. Did his dissatisfaction with the Democrats cause his endorsement or his general disliking of the Democratic field? Duggan did well with Democrats on university boards – Denise Ilitch and Mark Bernstein at U of M, Barnhill and Kumar at Wayne State, and I don’t think these folks are seriously dissatisfied with the Party,
I agree that the race to replace Haley Stevens in the House will be fun to watch, and Ms Hines may have to embrace El-Sayed or distance herself from him. That, too, will be fun to watch.
Tim/
At least I still recognize the socialist/communist/Caesar’s Democratic party. I have a hard time recognizing the MIGOP, except for their rope-a-dope/rope-a-loss tactics which ultimately lead to them losing more and more reputation. Now, they just lose so much any win is a token. z-z-z-z
As you said on OTR the other day, Bill, . . . it’s the Dems in a walk-over (I believe you said) . . . but it’s not DJT’s fault. The MIGOP scorched earth tactics has done it all by themselves!
Bill for Gov’na emeritus!
Nice article, Bill.
As for question 1, if the ads I see on YouTube are a measure of which election will dominate, I’ve probably seen more Sean Carlson ads (pro over con) than for the US Senate seat or governor’s office, though the latter two are closing fast. The funny thing, although I am currently in the 13th district, I am now in the 5th district courtesy of the 6th Circuit Court of Appeals and its correction of the “wonderful” job done by the Redistrict Commission. The pro and con Carlson advertisers may want to play with their algorithms or something to make sure their ads reach his actual voters. As for the Senate race, some of the various electoral pools for both parties may switch on this race. This will make an interesting vote count on election night (or week as the case may be).
As for the second question, I agree that Mr. Hudson and Mr. Campbell have the best chances of playing spoiler, but good enough I would put any of my money on that chance.
Question #3 takes me back to my college days. One of my poli-sci professors, Warren Miller at U of M, said there were very few true “independent” voters as most voters overwhelmingly vote for one party over the other – at least 85% of their votes go to their favored party each election, if the ensuing decades have not played too much havoc with my memory. A better way to describe these folks would probably be weak partisans, over maybe persuadable voters. What I think is more likely to occur this election is that there will be Jewish voters who will cross over for Rogers, or at least skip over voting for the US Senate seat, more a vote against El-Sayed then a vote for Rogers. But Rogers will take it and try to earn that vote six years later.
The defeat of Shri Thanedar has been a dream of Wayne County Democrats who were embarrassed that no black Democrats represented Detroit in Congress. They finally succeeded in defeating him with State Rep. McKinney, who, unlike Mr. Hollier, was able to get enough valid signatures. Not spending much time in the Lansing area, I have no idea if Mr. Lawrence won an overwhelming victory or his two more or less establishment Democrats simply split their vote and Mr. Lawrence won much like the way Shri Thanedar won his first primary where numerous black Democrats split the black vote. It goes without saying the fact that Mr. Thanedar spent a boatload of money, and that did not hurt him.
As for a generational alignment, geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan says we’re in one already. If he is right, this election will just move that process along.
Film at 11.
The recent Michigan Democratic Party convention was concluded this weekend:
(A) Gretchen Whitmer did NOT appear, nor did Haley Stevens — in fact no sitting member of the Michigan delegation in U.S.Congress showed up;
(B) Jocelyn Benson did NOT appear on stage with Dr. Abdul El-Sayed.
ANSWER 1) Resoundingly YES. All the eyes are on the US Senate race. Like a pretzel, there are more twists and turns on the road to victory than can be analyzed with any certainty. The dynamics here are unique and in flux, as there is no predicting what will emanate from either side. Any crumbs left over will fall to the race to see which puppet of the establishment takes control of the Governor’s Mansion for the next four years.
ANSWER 2) More likely in theory than in practice. But ultimately the numbers won’t be high enough to matter. Enough of the rank and file, along with the leadership of the GOP are more than mildly upset that the wizards behind the curtain put DJT under ether and conned him into endorsing a two-time (soon to be three) time loser for Governor. The same scenario played out four years ago when he chose the Tudor Model.
When individuals of high caliber like Kevin Rinke and Perry Johnson throw their hat in the ring, they should be welcomed and supported. When they are rebuffed in favor of inferiors, then the Demoncrats get the spoils.
Even though both are alike, Hudson will get more votes than Brandenburg. They will be protest votes over DJT’s foolish endorsement and will not impact the outcome of the race. Even though Doug Campbell is in the race, he will not impact the outcome, as his votes just offset the votes for Hudson and Brandenburg. Even though some guy named Space is in the race, no one will so much as lift a pen to blacken an oval for him.
ANSWER 3) Yes, as usual. The independents are the type that superficially, but always vote. They are intelligent enough not be swayed by the usual rhetoric that the Elephant and Donkey routinely clash over. They have an uncanny ability to cut-to-the-chase and base their vote on common sense and practically rather than emotion and herd instinct. None of them had to take a day off crying when HRC lost in 2016; nor did they celebrate when DJT won in 2016 & 2024.
As to the realignment issue, the Demoncrat Party lurched to the left in 1972 and McGovern couldn’t even win his own state, much less the rest of the USA. (Massachusetts & Washington DC excepted) Look for the Demoncrat Party to lurch further to the left in 2028. This bodes well for the GOP, regardless of who their candidate is. The presence of Abdulraman Mohamed El-Sayed on the ticket of the Demoncrat Party also bodes well for the GOP in 2026. His rhetoric crosses over into the danger zone, and the die is cast for a Rogers victory in November.