It’s fitting that the final week-end before the 11/8 General Election features one of horse racing’s premier events, the Breeder’s Cup, staged at California’s iconic Santa Anita Downs.
True railbirds care more about whether California Chrome can win the Cup’s showpiece, the Classic, than if a sagging Hillary Clinton can hold off a fast-closing Donald Trump.
So let’s use old-fashioned odds (in horse racing parlance) to gauge what’s likely to happen Tuesday, as it relates to Michigan:
With Nov. 8 just hours away, here is The Ballenger Report’s assessment of how things stand TODAY:
— Odds Hillary Clinton (D) will carry Michigan: 4-5 (55% likely)
— Odds Donald Trump (R) will carry Michigan: 5-4 (44%)
— Odds Gary Johnson (L) will carry Michigan: 1,000-1 (.0001%)
— Odds Jill Stein (G) will carry Michigan: 5,000-1 (.0000001%)
—Odds Michigan’s U.S. House of Representatives Delegation
will Remain 9R/5D: 4-5 (55%)
— Odds Michigan Democrats Will Net-Gain At Least One U.S.
House Seat: 5-4 (44%)
— Odds Republicans will Maintain Control of Michigan House of
Representatives: 1-2 (67%)
— Odds Democrats Will Gain Control of Michigan House of
Representatives: 3-1 (25%)
— Odds Democrats and Republicans will Wind Up in a “Shared
Power” 55-55 tie in the Michigan House of Representatives:
— Odds Republicans Will Retain a 5-2 Majority on the Michigan
Supreme Court: 1-4 (80%).
— Odds Democrats will Gain at Least One Seat on Michigan
Supreme Court, 7-1 (15%)
— Odds Democrats will Gain Two Seats & Outright Control of
Supreme Court: 20-1 (5%).
— Odds on Democrats Sweeping All Eight Seats for State Board of
Education (2), U-M Board of Regents (2), MSU Board of
Trustees (2), and Wayne State University Board of
Governors (2): 2-3 (60%)
— Odds on Republicans Winning at least One Seat of the Eight
from any one of the four boards: 3-1 (25%)
—- Odds on Democrats Winning a Majority of the Eight Ed Board
Seats: 1-3 (75%)
— Odds on Republicans Winning a Majority of the Eight Ed Board
Board Seats: 25-1 (4%).
— Odds on a 4-4 R/D Tie in the Eight Board Races (it’s never
happened): 500-1 (less than 1%)
— Odds Democrats Will Gain at least 20 seats Statewide in
County Board of Commissioners Races: Even (50%)
— Odds Democrats Will Make Gains in Countywide Elected Offices 2-3 (60%)
— Odds Democrats Will Gain Township Offices (out of a total of
some 6,500 statewide): 1-2 (67%)