Question 1): Michigan’s Democrat-controlled Legislature voted last week to repeal the state’s Right to Work (RtW) law, and Gov. Gretchen Whitmer signed it Friday. Michigan enacted RtW in 2012, when the GOP held a majority in both chambers and Republican Rick Snyder was governor. Over the past decade, RtW gave workers the choice of toiling in a unionized workplace without having to pay union dues. Michigan is now the first state in the nation in nearly 60 years to repeal a Right-to-Work statute.
Some business leaders are discussing whether to mount a petition drive to place a constitutional amendment question on the 2024 ballot that would reinstate RtW by enshrining it in the state Constitution. “The Michigan legislature is telling 150,000 hard-working Michiganders that they should be fired for their choice to leave their workplace union,” said Annie Patnaude, state director for the business-friendly Americans for Prosperity/Michigan.
Would Michigan voters support a ballot proposal that would return to workers the right to refuse to join a union or pay union dues as a condition of employment? For that matter, how daunting would be the task of collecting petition signatures, and how much would it cost to sell it to the electorate next year?
Answer 1): In somewhat of a surprise, a poll released last week showed that 56% of voters would support a ballot measure to reinstate RtW in Michigan, compared with 27% of voters who stated they would oppose – a better than 2-1 majority. The poll was conducted March 13 -17 on behalf of Americans for Prosperity by the Lansing-based firm Marketing Resource Group (MRG).
The survey also showed across-the-board support for the proposal from every geographical area of the state, Democrats and Republicans, conservatives and liberals, and even 47% of union workers surveyed stated they would support a ballot measure to reinstate a RtW law, while 40% indicated their opposition.
Here is the wording of the question by MRG: “The Michigan legislature is considering repealing the state’s Right-to-Work law. Would you support or oppose a ballot proposal that would reinstitute a Right-to-Work law, which would allow employees the right to work in a unionized workplace without being required to join or pay union dues as a condition of employment?”
The survey of 600 likely Michigan voters was conducted through live interviews March 13-17, with a +1 Dem sample. The sample was randomly drawn from a list of all registered voters with a history of voting, and stratified by city and township to reflect voter turnout. Quotas for gender and cell phone interviews were met within each geographic area, and extra efforts were made to reach African-Americans. 75% of the interviews were conducted with cell phone only or cell phone dominant households. The survey’s margin of error was ±4 percent, with a 95 % degree of confidence.
According to Article 12, Section 2, of Michigan’s Constitution, to get a question amending the state’s basic charter on the statewide general election ballot requires a number of signatures equal to 10% of the total vote cast for governor in the the most recent election (2022). That translates to 446,198 John Hancocks. Realistically, the petitioners would probably have to aim at collecting more than 600,00 signatures to be sure they have a sufficient quantity to overcome flawed or fraudulent petitions and signatures that might be thrown out by the Secretary of State. The deadline for filing the petitions is July 8, 2024, which will be 120 days before the Nov. 5, 2024, general election. Millions of dollars would have to be spent to sell it to the voting public, regardless of its current apparent popularity in the MRG poll. Millions will also be spent to defeat it. Much of that is money that could be spent elsewhere on Democratic and Republican candidates up and down the ballot.
MRG also announced survey findings last week on another issue that doesn’t appear very popular with Michigan voters, either, although nobody is talking about amending the Constitution to stop it. By a better than 2-to-1 margin, Michigan voters oppose the state’s decision to pay $1.6 billion in taxpayer subsidies to Ford Motor Company to build an electric car battery plant in Marshall. The poll showed 61% of voters opposed the subsidy, with only 30% of voters in support. 8% of voters were undecided. The poll was conducted by MRG simultaneously with the March 13-17 survey on RtW.
Governor Gretchen Whitmer’s proposal to spend $1.6 billion of state tax dollars works out to $640,000 for each of the 2,500 jobs that are expected to be created. Ford reported the average job would pay between $40,000 and $45,000 per year.
“Michigan voters overwhelmingly believe there are better ways to spend $1.6 billion in taxpayer dollars,” said MRG owner Jenell Leonard. “There appear to be limits on what the taxpayers are willing to pay, and $640,000 per job is too much.”
MRG (www.mrgmi.com) is a public relations firm representing corporate, association, nonprofit, and private clients with interests in Michigan. MRG offers expertise in public affairs, communications, political campaign management, and public opinion survey research. For more than 30 years, MRG has conducted a bi-annual omnibus Michigan Poll®, tracking the pulse of Michigan voters on key statewide public policy and political issues. MRG is the only Michigan public opinion survey research firm that maintains nearly 40 years of trend analyses of voter attitudes related to state and national leaders, political parties, and the political and economic climate in Michigan. MRG can be followed on Twitter @mrgmichigan and on Facebook.
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Question 2): Will the deep divisions within the Michigan Republican Party cost the GOP in 2024? With the party’s leadership now in the hands of rabid amateurs who haven’t proven they can win general elections, can Republican donors and other, more traditional conservatives and moderates figure out a way to ‘end-run’ the MAGA top brass and win primaries for candidates who have a chance to beat Democrats next year?
Answer 2): Yes, but to do so can’t be a last-minute endeavor. They cannot wait until 2024; to have a chance, they must start now. Furthermore, the GOP’s so-called ‘donor class’ is unlikely to be monolithic; it’s more likely to be united only on behalf of something like a ballot proposal to reinstitute Right to Work in Michigan. Otherwise, individuals and well-organized groups and committees will have to cherry-pick races, banding together to raise money in support of their chosen (less-Trumpy) candidates. Those candidates might then be extremely well-funded. However, the real challenge will be whether that will be enough to overcome both MAGA base voters in a primary as well as at the party convention nominating process for statewide candidates. All that said, top GOP party officials have rarely had much to do with who wins races for the state Legislature or local elections, anyway. That’s unlikely to change with less competent people in charge of the party nowadays. Legislative and Congressional elections have always and will always depend on individual candidates and their ability to raise money, their willingness to put in the hard work, how they connect to voters, and a strategy to put it all together.
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Question 3): Has anything changed over the past month in the nascent race for Michigan’s 7th District seat in the U.S. House of Representatives? That’s the fiefdom being vacated by U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin because she’s running to succeed U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow, who is retiring at the end of next year. The 7th is a sprawling enclave encompassing four whole counties (Clinton, Ingham, Livingston, and Shiawassee) and parts of three others (Eaton, Genesee, and Oakland). It’s as near to a 50-50% D/R district as can be found, and some $9 million were spent by and on Slotkin and her Republican opponent, former state Senator Tom Barrett (R-Charlotte), last year in what was the most expensive Congressional race in the entire country. Incumbent Slotkin, who outspent Barrett, won by about 5 points. Now, who are the likely candidates to succeed Slotkin? Will there be important primaries for either major party?
Answer 3): Barrett is certainly running again, although he hasn’t formally announced. The Democratic field is thinning out rapidly. Lansing Mayor Andy Schor, who had formed an exploratory committee, has now said he’s not going through with it. He’s out. There is scattered speculation about state Reps. Julie Brixie (D-E. Lansing), and Angela Witwer (D-Delta Twp) and state Senator Sarah Anthony (D-Lansing), but for various reasons it’s hard to see any of them jumping into a race that looks likely to feature one or both of two candidates — Ingham Co. Clerk Barb Byrum and former state Senator Curtis Hertel, Jr. (D-E. Lansing), who is now Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s legislative liaison with many of his former colleagues. Both would have to give up their current jobs if either chooses to run. Hertel has just started his new gig, and Byrum would have to give up running for re-election to her current post in 2024. If she ran for Congress and lost next year, in either the primary or the general, she would be out of office. Byrum’s mother, Dianne Byrum, is a former state Senator and House Minority Leader and most recently chair of the Michigan State University Board of Trustees. Byrum mother and daughter combined have been continually in public office for more than three decades, mostly at the same time. Stay tuned.
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Nice article, Bill.
ON QUESTION ONE: First of all, I support repeal of Right to Work and the return on the prevailing wage. With that, here are my comments.
The MRG poll numbers on Right to Work repeal are a bit unusual, but it is a more or less GOP leaning/ right of center/business group, so it is not so surprising. Their accuracy on the 2022 races should shed some light on how much credence to give this polling result.
The issue of who will fund it will be interesting. Much of the money spent to put RtW into the Constitution will come from monies that could have gone to the candidates of the GOP. The fun will come when the media (I know, I’m dreaming) actually start asking questions on why policy decisions should be in the Constitution at all.
The FoMoCo subsidies are interesting. I believe Virginia turned it down for a variety of reasons, but for Michigan the long-term cost assumes sound and flush state finances into the future. Personally, I would not hold my breath. But the story does raise one real good point. FoMoCo is a PRIVATE company worth quite a bit of money. Someone will ask why they need a SUBSIDY? Will they share their profits with us? Not bloody likely. As they used to say on TV, film at 11.
ON QUESTION TWO: This is a repeat comment, but on a good day, the GOP donor class treats the populists, social conservatives and Trumpians as sheep to be sheared. On a bad day, they treat them like serfs. At the very least, they want them to shut up and vote the way they are told to vote.
The donor class and traditional Republicans could not be bothered, or successful, at getting their people elected as precinct delegates. Whose fault is that?
They could not get their preferred candidate for governor on the ballot. Whose fault is that?
They decided to screw the executive candidates they loathed, spent a ton of money on the state legislature and got their clocks cleaned. Whose fault it that?
The ineptitude and incompetence the donor class has shown throughout 2022 – and earlier – can best be described as an abject fuster cluck. And the fault is theirs.
The donor class and traditional Republicans, through their own ineptitude and incompetence, have turned their political goals into an abject fuster cluck.
Now the “rabid amateurs” running the state GOP are the ones who did the leg work, won at the precinct level are, did well in East Dearborn and the county level elections. They are when dealing with the donor class, to quote George Will, rejecting the dogfood. What we may be seeing is the populists, social conservatives and Trumpians now wanting to treat the donor class as sheep to be sheared.
ON QUESTION 3: Methinks some form of political nepotism will rule. Hertels and Byrums hve held office since I had a full head of hair and no gray in it. They will scare off the others, although Andy Levin has found a gig at Center for American Progress, I would not be surprised if this opening reinvigorates his desire to “return home”.
Excellent comments Tim on Question #2.
The political center of the Michigan Republican Party is anti-globalist and pro-populist.
The wealthy donor class is now virtually a non-entity in the state party apparatus and the fact that someone like Ms. Karamo with her extreme political views is now chair is a testament to the level of influence the populists now have.
Of the 11 candidates for state GOP chair only Scott Aughney was more extreme than Kristina – and he applauded her honesty and positions.
Even when the Tea Party was prevalent in the GOP in 2010-2012, they allowed Ron Weiser to have his chairmanship – even though they disagreed with him on much.
Other than Ron Weiser, very few of importance among the donor class even bothered to run for precinct delegate or show up at state conventions.
The general feeling at the last GOP state convention was disgust over the donor class.
Right now, MAGA mania is prevailing in the MIGOP camp with Trumps adorers reveling in the Karamo chairmanship. Morale is at a new high. Will this translate to electoral successes in 2024? the jury’s out.
Ron Weiser gave his farewell address to the State Committee in Frankenmuth as MIGOP chair a few months ago – and not a real lot of emotion either way from either Weiser or the MIGOP state committee members.
Ms. Karamo is currently getting some pushback from the establishment officials at lower levels of GOP governance – but recently received a hero’s welcome in Macomb County.
Morale of the MAGA-loving precinct delegate base in Macomb County is at an all-time high with the Karamo chairmanship. Other areas of Michigan have likewise welcomed Kristina Karamo as a victor over the establishment.
Do not underestimate the ability of Ms. Karamo to engineer victories for the GOP in 2024. She is shrewd and has already made inroads politically across the state. She has been meeting with local GOP leaders and building bridges well.
Without commenting on incentives given specifically in the Ford case, it appears the general public does not understand why incentives are given to businesses locating in Michigan. The benefit to doing so goes well beyond the jobs created. I analogize it to anchor tenants being given sweet-heart leases by developers to locate in a shopping center (back before Amazon was a thing). It was done because the existence of the anchor tenant brought in customers making the entire shopping center more successful both for the developer and the other tenants. Ford locating a plant with 2,500 jobs means a lot to the local community and the state in the form of taxes, other businesses servicing the plant and its workers, and local property values. Such facilities as Ford plans can often be located anywhere, so there is competition between states and even with foreign countries. As to why incentives are given to prosperous companies, that is who invests. If they were failing, or low income individuals, they wouldn’t be expanding or investing in new plants. Determining what is the over-all value of the facility being located in Michigan, and what is required to bring that value to Michigan, is far more complicated than comparing the incentives to the number of jobs created,
Thanks Mr. Richards, for your excellent comments on what is basically pump priming, which is always best with drinkable water.
Thanks Bill for encouraging discourse on insanity of the MGOP. Every dog gets its day, but after awhile no one believes the lies, deceit, poor examples of leadership, and anyone associated with the MGOP. It seems that there are more former Republicans in Michigan than former Democrats. Good candidates that have a program, can communicate effectively and accurately, and are not owned by anyone usually will develop followers who will vote for them. Maybe not in 2024, but perhaps in 2026 and 2028 when the prior elected officials either give up or are voted out of office in the primaries.
As is typical, the pendulum also swings for the MDP. It manages to become overzealous on democracy destroying programs, that the voter realizes is simply a tax and spend agenda. Where real progress will be made is restoring faith in the Family, and encouraging people to do what is right in raising their children. Good parenting seems like a minority effort today, with abdications to social media and peer pressure part of the majority positions. We as a society either fix the parent/child conundrum, or find ourselves controlled by AI, robots, and other countries that refuse to put up with the nonsense being foisted on our youngest members of society.
Enjoy your articles Bill. Best Regards..
John Yob issued a newsletter in February that predicted from polling results that Kristina Karamo would be the next MIGOP chair.
That poll disclosed that 59.2% of GOP convention delegates polled most closely identified with “Donald Trump/America First Republican” values – with only 14.7% self-identifying as “Traditional Republican” and 9.7% as “Socially Conservative Republican”.
That same polling showed Trump would be favored over Ron DeSantis in a GOP presidential primary by the same delegates by a 51.8%-38.8% margin.
These results show that Donald Trump’s persona remains a potent political force to be reckoned with within the Michigan Republican Party.
I’m sure that Ryan Roberts or Bill Gelineau will respond soon.
In reference to the practice of “cover-up” of actions by Politicians ,it was revealed by Mr. Guy Gordan on His WJR daily news talk program that Governor Whitmer used the very same tactic to conceal Her Covid trip to Florida during “lockdown” !