The Ballenger Report

Bill Ballenger: #1 Political Pundit in Michigan
All the Truth, All the Time
Michigan's Only "No Spin Zone"
Who is Running for What? Who Will Win?
Can Democrats Seize Total Control of Michigan Government in 2022?
Flint Water Crisis: What's Really Going On!
Politicians
Politicians
You are here: Home / Uncategorized / SIX THINGS WE LEARNED THIS WEEK

SIX THINGS WE LEARNED THIS WEEK

by 3 Comments

Q 1):  The Lansing city council voted Monday to put on the Nov. 2 general election ballot the question of whether voters in the capital city want to implement what is called “rank choice voting” for all municipal offices. If approved, it would begin in 2023 and eliminate the non-partisan August primary, such as the one that will be held next month. What is rank choice voting and what is its future in Michigan?

A. It appears rank, or ranked, choice voting (RCV) is gathering steam in Michigan, and we’re likely to see more of it, not less. It’s a long way from a “jungle primary” such as exists in the states of Louisiana, Washington and California, but it’s an innovation that its adherents claim will subtly nudge candidates toward more moderate positions on issues and roll back the current polarization of the electorate.  Also called “instant runoff voting,” RCV allows voters to rank their preferences in order — one, two, three, etc. Voters can also do what they always have done — for example, just vote for their preferred candidate. In races in which there are more than two candidates, if no candidate gets over 50% of the first-choice ballots, the lowest-ranked candidate is dropped, and the second choices of his or her voters are counted and added to the higher-ranked candidates. This process continues until a candidate gets over 50% and is declared the winner. New York City just used rank choice in its primary election to determine the Democratic and Republican nominees for mayor. While the vote-counting in NYC was chaotic, that wasn’t the fault of RCV but of the incompetence of election bureaucrats. The winner of the Democratic primary, Eric Adams, who is sure to win in November because of the Dems’ 7-1 registration edge, is a moderate former cop who edged two more liberal women. In RCV’s brief history, the candidate who finishes first in the initial vote count winds up winning the final result in over 96% of all races. Seldom does someone who finishes second or third in the initial count manage to leapfrog one or more opponents in subsequent counts enough to win. The only municipality in Michigan known to be utilizing RCV today is the Detroit suburb of Eastpointe, since 2019.

Q 2): Last week-end’s street protests in Cuba were historic — they’ve never really happened in the 62 years since Fidel Castro came to power in 1959 and imposed communism on the island. President Joe Biden has announced his administration is on the side of the protesters, who he said are rebelling against “decades of repression and economic suffering.” What is the impact of all this on U.S. politics?

A. There is much more that must play out to determine whether there are any long-term consequences, but this may be the best news for U.S. Democrats since the Bay of Pigs debacle in 1961. Republicans have been the beneficiaries of the Kennedy Administration’s botched attempt to overthrow the Castros. Cuban-Americans ever since have been heavily Republican, especially in South Florida, which has contributed to a preponderance of GOP victories in the Sunshine State, including several key Congressional races just last fall. For a Democratic administration in Washington to be in a position to cheer on protesters against a government of the Left is political manna from heaven. Democrats historically have found themselves on the wrong side of such demonstrations, regardless of the regime involved, all around the world, at least until now.

Q 3):  A Target Insyght survey conducted early this month showed Gov. Gretchen Whitmer drubbing potential Republican gubernatorial nominee James Craig by 83%-14% in the City of Detroit (with some 3% undecided). Democrats, Target Insyght’s pollster Ed Sarpolus, and most of the news media seemed to regard this as significant, considering that Craig, who is African-American,  was a Detroit police chief in a heavily black city. But is it?

A: No. In fact, it may be the opposite — 14% support may sound pathetic, but it’s more than twice the percentage of the vote as Republican candidates like Donald Trump and John Engler and Candice Miller got — and they all won statewide. And, remember, Detroit is now only about 6% of the statewide vote, not the one-third it was at mid-20th century. It’s nearing the point where Detroit’s vote will be as insignificant in the overall electoral scheme of things as the Upper Peninsula, which produces only 3% of the vote statewide. Whether Craig is successful or not depends on what kind of candidate he turns out to be, and whether he is fast on his verbal feet on the key issues that will swing suburban and small city voters who will determine who wins the Republican primary and 2022 general election.

Q 4): Former President Donald Trump has called Michigan state Senate Majority Leader Mike Shirkey (R-Jackson) and Sen. Ed McBroom (R-Vulcan) RINOs (Republicans in Name Only) because McBroom’s  Senate Oversight Committee issued a report concluding that Joe BIDEN legitimately carried Michigan in the 2020 election. Does Trump’s denunciation ruin the political futures of Shirkey and McBroom?

A. It depends on whether they want to have futures. If they do, Trump’s insults are unlikely to be a factor. Shirkey has eschewed interest in running for anything beyond the state Senate (he’s now term-limited), although if reapportionment or the death or defeat of another politician opens up a  Congressional seat for him, that remains a possibility. And Shirkey has a very different image and reputation from McBroom — he’s been lambasted by Democrats and the news media for being the OPPOSITE of what Trump  claims he is. McBroom is one of a kind — anybody in the Legislature will tell you so. His moral integrity is unquestioned, and he’s the farthest thing from a demagogue. The only conceivable job he could be interested in would be succeeding U.S. Rep. Jack Bergman in Congress, and even that is problematic. McBroom almost decided NOT to run for the Senate just three years ago when his brother, who helped him run the family’s large Upper Peninsula  farming operation, was killed in an auto accident. Yes, McBroom DID run, and won easily, but ever since he’s been the father and chief breadwinner for two families and numerous children. Whether he’d consider giving that up to journey to “The Swamp” is questionable.

Q 5): On July 6, former Detroit Police Chief James CRAIG made his first public political speech at the site marking the birth of the Republican Party in Jackson in 1854. Craig didn’t formally announce that he’s running for Governor. He spoke mostly about GOP unity and history. MIRS newsletter posits that this may indicate Craig is being “slow-walked” toward becoming an active candidate. But how long should we expect such “slow walking” to last?

A. It can last quite a big longer. Remember, Rick Snyder didn’t announce he was running for governor until July, 2009, some 13 months before the August, 2010, primary. Hardly anybody noticed, because he was unknown, and other Republicans with more name ID had already jumped into the race. Snyder never pierced public consciousness until the following February, with his now-famous “Nerd” Super Bowl ads. In the current election cycle, Craig is positioned on the clock precisely where Snyder was a dozen years ago. Yes, Gretchen Whitmer started her campaign for the governorship in January of 2017, much earlier than Snyder did, but she had to, because she needed to raise her name ID and campaign cash and hopefully scare potential Democratic rivals out of the race. She succeeded, through sound strategy, hard work and some luck. But the news media and many political observers who should know better now take that as the “template” which must be followed in the “new normal.” It ain’t necessarily so.

Q 6): After fly-specking a sample of signatures, the Bureau of Elections announced last week that Fair & Equal Michigan (F&EM) didn’t collect enough valid John Hancocks to have its initiative petition certified and sent to the Legislature. The initiative would expand LGBTQ rights and protect gender identity and sexual orientation. F&EM has vowed to overturn the Bureau’s decision. What are its chances of doing that?

A. It ain’t over till it’s over, but F&EM’s chances are still slim. The Bureau now says that by July 26 it will sift through a larger sample that might yield evidence that F&EM met the threshold of some 360,000 signatures that are needed. The initial Bureau estimate was that F&EM handed in less than 300,000, but now gay rights activists and their attorney, former state Democratic Party Chairman Mark Brewer, have rushed in with last-minute “filings” in an attempt to “rehabilitate signatures.” Abetted by a news media cheering F&EM on, the Bureau and its boss, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, surely want F&EM to succeed, so if the election bureaucrats have made the painful judgment they have, it’s unlikely the petitions will ultimately be approved. If so, the Republican-controlled Legislature has been spared a huge headache. Ironically, F&EM find themselves in the same position as the conservative group of non-union contractors who paid a professional firm hundreds of thousands of dollars five years ago to collect signatures for an initiative petition to repeal the state’s prevailing wage law. The initial effort failed, and that’s exactly where F&EM finds itself now after shelling out $2.5 million to paid circulators who failed them. The non-union building trades group sucked it up after its disappointment, launched a new petition drive, and undertook a new campaign to get the signatures needed and rubber-stamped by the Legislature. They finally got it done in 2018. Flash forward to today: F&EM may not need another petition drive. They may be bailed out by the Democrat-controlled Supreme Court, which has taken up an appeal of a law suit that embodies the essence of what F&EM seeks. The high bench could easily rule in F&EM’s favor. That would be somewhat like a Roe v. Wade for gay rights, and a new war will commence over whether such issues should be decided by the judiciary.

*****************************************************************

 

Reader Interactions

Comments

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *