Question 1): Should Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, now running for governor in 2026 as an Independent, once again shock Michigan’s political world by appearing on Mackinac Island in the midst of next week-end’s state GOP’ biennial leadership conference?
Answer 1): It would be a bold move, but probably not. First, it would provide the Michigan Democratic Party and its probable gubernatorial nominee, Jocelyn Benson, with sight-and-sound bites that they would use against Duggan in attack ads ad nauseum for the next year, contending that the mayor is OK with cozying up to Donald Trump and MAGA Republicans. Also, there would be few of the kind of Republicans that Duggan hopes to attract to his banner among the GOP conference attendees on the Island, and even those would be reluctant to show their faces. Of course, Duggan might steal a page from former Democratic state chairman Mark Brewer, who used to hold a press conference on the Island to denounce the Michigan GOP. Duggan could simply step off the torpedo ferry and grab a microphone on the docks before the assembled media. He would be guaranteed huge statewide coverage of what he could say — castigating the dysfunction of the Legislature while making the argument that only he can cure the two-party disease.
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Question 2): The Michigan Republican Party has grand visions for this year’s leadership conference Sept. 19-21 on Mackinac Island. Attendance at the GOP conclave may be the largest in 10 years. Why all the excitement? Because there will be open seat contests for U.S. Senate, Governor, Secretary of State, and Attorney General on the 2026 ballot. It all raises several questions. Of the Republican gubernatorial candidates, who needs to have the best showing? For that matter, what about the Republican candidates for Secretary of State and Attorney General? The GOP nominees for those offices in 2022 (Kristina Karamo and Matt DePerno) proved to be, predictably, disastrous. Former Congressman Mike Rogers appears to have a clear path to the Republicans’ U.S. Senate nomination next year, but what about the other offices?
Answer 2): It’s not looking good for the Michigan GOP for any of these offices, except possibly governor. The Democrats have positioned themselves well, with Oakland Co. Prosecuting Attorney Karen D. McDonald for A.G. and a credible nominee for SoS, be it Ingham Co. Clerk Barb Byrum or former state Senator Adam Hollier or someone else. The Republicans have a possible quality A.G. candidate, little-known Eaton Co. Prosecutor Doug Lloyd, but whether he has the campaign chops and fund-raising ability to secure his party’s nomination let alone a realistic chance to beat a Democrat in November, 2026, is open to question. As for Governor, The answer is presumed frontrunner U.S. Rep. John JAMES (R-Shelby Township). Up to now, James has not been as visible as the other Republican candidates. His non-existent campaign has been on cruise control, depending on high name ID from his two failed campaigns for U.S. Senate. He’s not at meet-and-greets and local party functions. He’s not as active on social media as the other candidates, and he’s leaving question marks about whether his heart is in the race. If he’s a serious candidate, he needs to display his knowledge of state issues and what he stands for.
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Question 3): State Rep. Bill G. SCHUETTE (R-Midland) surprised some by announcing this past weekthat he won’t run in the special election for the long-open seat in the 35th state Senate District, where he would have been the favorite. This Tri-Cities district, centered in Bay, Midland, and Saginaw Counties, is considered a pick-up opportunity for Republicans, who, if they win it, would throw the Senate into a 19-19 deadlock. Why did Schuette decide against running in the special?
Answer 3): All becomes clear now as to why Gov. Gretchen Whitmer delayed calling a special election for a record length of time, which she has the legal right to do. Yes, the national Republicans are playing ‘hard ball’ in their push for Texas and Missouri Congressional gerrymanders, but Whitmer showed that Democrats can play hard ball, too, as they always have over the years, often.
Schuette didn’t want to risk losing his state House seat in a competitive Senate bid., because Whitmer clearly put him over a barrel when she denied allowing 35th District voters to fill the seat for an unconscionable period of nearly a year and a half. So Schuette was forced to opt instead for running for a third House term next year.
How did WHITMER accomplish this? She set the special primary election date for Feb. 3, 2026, before the April 21 filing deadline for the 2026 election cycle. That in itself might have been OK. But it meant that the general election wouldn’t be until May 5, two weeks after the filing deadline for both the state House AND the Senate. If Schuette was running in the special, and if he won the primary, he would not be able to file for his House seat (without a lot of messiness) if he lost the May 5 Senate special general election. He could be out of a job in either chamber by the end of this year.
All that said, what does it matter whether Democrats or the GOP win this special? If the Democrats win, they would enhance their current 19-18 majority to 20-18, but what difference would that really make? None, since anything they passed would be blocked by the Republican majority House.
But if Republicans win the special, it would mean Democrats couldn’t approve anything without GOP support. Yes, they have Democrat Garlin Gilchrist as a tie-breaker if the vote was 19-19, but all Senate Republicans would have to do is have one of their members ‘sit out’ the vote and a party-line tally would be 19-18, meaning Gilchrist would have no tie to break and the bill would fail. Remember, it takes a majority of senators elected and serving (20) for a bill to pass.
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Bill, very inciteful . . . thank you!
Wrt Q#1: I think, yes, assuming he can get an invitation from some MAGA sized republican. Karamo? Deperno? As you say, he wouldn’t need to stay long, just long enough to get his smiling picture on the cover of the (Rolling Stone, er,) evening news!
Wrt Q#2: You know . . . playing rope-a-dope when you are 7 rounds behind is just simply unbecoming a political party. Typical Republican playbook though. They never heard of a good offense is the best defense, when a poor defense is no defense at all is written onto their scorecard.
Wrt Q#3: Look up Republican who is scared of their own shadow and it has Bill Schuette’s pic. The only credit I can give him is that at least when he decides to run he at least shows up which puts him automatically ahead of 50% of the Repub pack.
Bill, you are the best. Mr. Skubick would single handedly save PBS if he’d have you on more often 🙂
Interesting article, Bill, though the link on the email is not working so I had to go ina backdoor.
QUESTION 1: You’re right. He gains nothing going to Mackinac. He would be better off spending time with the GOP donor class that is not there to secure more funding. It’s what he would have told Eddie Mac to do, so will he.
QUESTION 2: Again, the GOP is trying to win elections without a lot of money. Rogers can fundraise independently. He will benefit if the Democratic primary is a bloodbath, or at least a very messy fight.
As for John James, I have no idea what he’s up to. Getting elected requires work, lots of rubber chicken dinners, and lots and lots of glad-handing. If he is not willing to work for it, he’s not going to get it.
As for the other offices, McDonald hopes folks and the media won’t spend too much time on her first attempt to bring Galloway to trial over the Danielle Stiskicki murder. For the SOC, Hollier and Byrum will have a fight – of sorts – but as a convention fight, it won’t get that much press. If necessary, look for loser of these two to be the Lt. Gov nominee.
For the GOP, they have to stop being stupid. The way the game is played has changed and they haven’t figured that out yet. They’ve lost the Supreme Court because the Democrats raise lots of money at least a year ahead of the election – usually eight figures all to the left of the decimal point – and they know a year ahead of time who they will run. The GOP does what they’ve done for decades, literally waiting to the last minute to nominate someone and hope that the money needed will drop from Heaven like manna. Note to the GOP, God does not rain money down from Heaven for politics. The GOP has to play catch-up. They have to figure out who they want to run for these offices and can get majority support at a convention. These folks have to have a chance to win. This means getting out to the delegates in person (emails can be forwarded) to convince (or convert) them to the nominees. It means doing the leg work that politics used to require. You know, work for it. Then they need to get money. The GOP donor class sits out elections in hopes of outlasting the base and getting them to submit to the whims of the donor class. The problem with that thinking is that if the Democrats stay in power, the thing the donor class cares most about – their money and wealth – will eventually be targeted. And then the base will tell them to perform anatomically impossible feats upon themselves.
What will become of Michigan then? I don’t know. We could be a one-party state like Illinois, or California, or Massachusetts, or Minnesota. Or the donor class will cut a deal where they don’t lose as much of their wealth as they fear.
QUESTION 3: Gretchen Whitmer plays hardball. Bill Schuette probably could have won, but I don’t think he wanted to put forth the effort to avoid the risk of losing. Ah, politics. It’s going to be fun in 2026!
The GOP lost control of the Michigan Supreme Court due to the trio of Taylor/Markman/Young who issued legal opinions so off-the-wall and in favor of insurance companies and other corporate interests that the public wanted to ensure that this situation could not happen again -so they voted Democrats in to the MSC.
Clifford Taylor was the first – and only – incumbent Michigan Supreme Court chief justice to lose a re-election bid in state history. Diane Hathaway – who later went to prison due to a mortgage fraud conviction – beat him in 2008 with the “Sleeping Judge” ad that went viral. That year the Libertarian Party nominee to the MSC ballot received an unheard of 11% of the total vote – which observers credited to Taylor’s strong gun control enforcement views.
Yes, the insurance companies – the donor class. Despite all their slavish devotion to the donor class, they were abandoned by them.
I understand that Geoffrey Feiger may have had a hand in the ad. And probably thought every penny was a penny well spent.
But the Democrats have had for the past few years lining up both their candidates and money at least a year before the election. If the GOP wants to win elections and unseat incumbent Democrats, they need to do the same. If not, electoral success will be rare. As Simon Schuster reported in Bridge Magazine on 11-11-24: “THEY HAD HELP: IN ADDITION TO OUTRAISING THEIR OPPONENTS, THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINEES HAD FAR MORE ASSISTANCE FROM OUTSIDE GROUPS, INCLUDING A DARK MONEY NONPROFIT REGISTERED IN MASSACHUSETTS THAT WAS THE LARGEST MICHIGAN SUPREME COURT DONOR THIS YEAR.
THE NONPROFIT, CALLED THE JUSTICE PROJECT ACTION, HAD GIVEN NEARLY $4.4 MILLION TO A PRO-BOLDEN AND THOMAS SUPER PAC CALLED JUSTICE FOR ALL AS OF MID-OCTOBER, ACCORDING TO STATE DISCLOSURE REPORTS. THE NONPROFIT WAS INCORPORATED LATE LAST YEAR AND HAS NO READILY AVAILABLE INFORMATION ABOUT ITS ORIGINS OR AIMS.
THE SUPER PAC, JUSTICE FOR ALL, IS LINKED TO THE MICHIGAN ASSOCIATION FOR JUSTICE, WHICH REPRESENTS TRIAL LAWYERS. SINCE 2020, THE PAC HAS SPENT NEARLY $10.7 MILLION SUPPORTING DEMOCRATIC NOMINEES RUNNING FOR THE STATE’S HIGHEST COURT.”
Further in the article, Mr. Schuster continues: “BOLDEN AND THOMAS HAD ALREADY OUTRAISED THEIR REPUBLICAN COUNTERPARTS SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH THEIR CAMPAIGNS REPORTING A COMBINED $3.4 MILLION IN DONATIONS, COMPARED TO ROUGHLY $560,000 FOR THE GOP NOMINEES, AS OF LATE OCTOBER.
BUT OUTSIDE GROUPS SPENT MORE THAN TWICE AS MUCH AS THE CANDIDATES, SPENDING A COMBINED $7.6 MILLION TO SUPPORT THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINEES, INCLUDING AT LEAST $5.25 MILLION FROM DARK MONEY SOURCES, COMPARED TO LESS THAN $800,000 TOTAL FOR FINK AND O’GRADY.
FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE REPORTS SHOWED HARRIS AND BOLDEN HAD A NEARLY NINE-TO-ONE FINANCIAL ADVANTAGE IN THE RACE, INCLUDING BOTH CAMPAIGN AND OUTSIDE SOURCES. THOSE TOTALS WILL LIKELY RISE WITH POST-ELECTION DISCLOSURES.”
If you’re outspent nearly 9:1, victory tends to be quite hard. I don’t see a good future for GOP candidates for the Supreme Court spots until that problem is resolved.
Now if their is a Republican version of Richard Bernstein who can self-fund and is willing to do so, that might be different.
Geoffrey Fieger’s clients actually were in the ad claiming Clifford Taylor fell asleep several times during an oral argument in an appeal in which they were on the losing side.
Taylor hotly disputed that he slept and procured affidavits from lawyers on the winning side indicating he was not sleeping during oral argument.
Oops. In the last paragraph, it should read NOW IF THERE, not their. Mea Culpa.
Tim/
Incisive, as always.
But I take minor exception to the notion that Duggan might benefit from a guerilla appearance on Mackinac a la Mark Brewer (as the chronically out-of-power Dem party chair in the 1990s and early 2000s).
I attended more than one of his combative and utterly meaningless press conferences on the island, and don’t remember a single one that was in any way determinative of an election outcome.
That said, I’d add that Duggan’s ubiquitous billboards across northern Michigan declaring him “America’s most effective mayor” are a master stroke.
Kevin Kijewski is another GOP candidate running for Michigan Attorney General along with Doug Lloyd.
Kijewski defended a presidential elector who had charges thrown out last week.
Monica Yatooma is running for Secretary of State on the GOP side as well.
As for John James – i am still getting fundraising e-mails that solicit campaign contributions – but do not state what office he is running for – a sad situation.
ANSWER 1) Yes. Since he has wisely decided to run as an ‘independent’, his actions must meet his words. For him to abscond from any major political event indicates that when the going gets tough he gets going–in the other direction. To win, he needs to siphon a certain number of votes from both the Elephant and the Jackass to prevail over a year from now. Which frankly shouldn’t be impossible to accomplish. Due to disarray the GOP has faltered badly; the party of JFK has done worse.
In for a dime, in for a dollar. Simple as that.
ANSWER 2) The Mackinac Island Conference is the Debutante Ball for Republican candidates of all stripes to present themselves to the dedicated activists and organizations that will decide who wins the primary–and who prevails at the convention. It’s just a bit early to read the tea leaves and predict who will prevail in 2026. After all, who would have glimpsed into their crystal ball in 2015 only to see the initials DJT printed on White House stationery?
Now to even suspect that John James is the front runner of anything, except three-time loser, is another story. To this moment, I have no clue why the GOP propped him up in not one, but two US Senate races. The guy is truly an empty suit. If by some wild outside chance he wins the primary, then yours truly, a Goldwater-Reagan-Buchanan-Trump Republican, will be casting his November ballot for a former Mayor of a large SE Michigan City. (But this could be the plan of some in the GOP–think about it)
ANSWER 3) Simple. He has enough political acumen to know which way the political winds are blowing. (Something tells me he has a good teacher)
But it’s not over till the Fat Lady sings. A lawsuit has been filed which may have prompted the Grinch to belatedly call the special election. Instead of the issue being moot, an argument can be made resulting in an order to accelerate the filing deadline and primary/election dates. This leaves the door wide open for someone in danger of losing an incumbent Representative seat to throw his hat in the ring for the Senate seat.
America’s Most Effective Mayor might want to lay low for a while after the Census Bureau reported on Thursday that the Detroit poverty rate increased 8.1% YoY in 2024. Detroit’s 34.5% poverty rate in 2024 ranks it as America’s poorest city, worse even than ‘The Mistake on the Lake’.
Duggan already has all of the money from major conservative donors, going to Mackinac would only give dems ammo to use against him.
On the topic of Attorney General, Doug Lloyd is a very well known commodity amongst the law enforcement and legal communities. And frankly, he’s the only Republican that has the resume to survive against the dems in November. Every Republican needs to understand that.
For the SOS and AG, Republican voters and conservative media should be working to give a voice to their best candidates, and actively supporting them on social media. If we want to win in 2026, then we shouldn’t leave the convention vote up to who can spend the most on social media followers. We need experience in the professions, not wannabe influencers. We should actively be donating, volunteering and sharing their posts on social media
I have met Doug Lloyd – in fact we attended law school at the same time. He is Eaton County Prosecutor
He is NOT well-known in Metro Detroit but he has been a low-key prosecutor that has has served in a number of important positions – such as a member of the Michigan Insurance Fraud Task Force.
In response to “Tim Sullivan Says” the Republicans need to master the ability to secure the “Dark Money” ,from sources and agendas (even foreign) unknown to the Electorate .Also , matching the dictatorial leadership of the current Democratic Party would also enable electoral victory. Unfortunately ,the Citizens will be the losers if this occurs. The “old guard” Dem. Party is no longer viable.
Vice President J.D. Vance again offered to send the National Guard into Detroit today, but only if Governor Whitmer requests it. This is a political twofer for Vance, despite Saginasty being “Number 1 with a bullet”, as the DJ’s used to say..
* It challenges Governor Whitmer – a possible 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee – to take responsibility for the city which has become Michigan’s continuing PR nightmare.
* It reminds everyone that America’s Most Effective Mayor runs a city where the violent crime rate stands at about 20.07 per 1,000 residents (according to NeighborhoodScout), five times the national median of 4.0.
I am in Detroit almost every day.
There are certain areas of Detroit that skew the overall violent crime rate for Detroit upward that do not reflect the reality that most active business areas are relatively safe.
The area in Detroit’s east side between Six and Eight Mile Roads from Woodward to Van Dyke is known as the “Red Zone” and has a reputation as one of the most dangerous places on Earth – that was reported upon in a documentary. Violent crime abounds in that area to the extent that few police patrols venture into the area after dark.
Downtown Detroit and areas around the New Center are considered relatively safe.
The Detroit neighborhoods with the worst crime statistics during 2023 were, in order:
Belmont
Petosky-Otsego
Von Steuben
Fiskhorrn
Warrendale
Greenbriar
Franklin Park
Fitzgerald
Well distributed across Detroit. In each, your annual chance to be a crime victim exceeds 10%. None are in the “Red Zone” and only Von Steuben is in 4820-Die. Several organizations put out good crime heat maps of Detroit and they all pretty much agree, except as to neighborhood boundaries.