QUESTIONS OF THE WEEK IN MICHIGAN POLITICS

Question 2): Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s campaign slogan ‘Fix the Damn Roads’ seemed brilliant back in 2018. But then she sabotaged her own prospects to deliver on her promise by proposing a 45-cent hike in the gas tax after she promised she wouldn’t. She has never gotten the cooperation from the Legislature she should have been able to and has tried to use a patchwork bonding scheme to paper over the obvious shortfall in transportation funding that has resulted. As a result, the disastrous current condition of Michigan’s roads means her catchy theme four years ago may backfire on her now. Should she have foreseen this in 2018?

Answer 2): According to a Target Insyght survey commissioned late last month by MIRS newsletter, 49% of voters do not see any real improvement in Michigan’s road conditions from when Whitmer took office. Of this universe of voters, 56% say they are voting for Republican James CRAIG for governor, while 23% will vote for Whitmer. In certain locales, potholes and shock absorber damage seem to have proliferated rather than diminished. Drivers, already in a bad mood for other reasons, have taken notice. Should Democrats have foreseen that Michigan’s roads would still be a mess after four years of Whitmer? Yes. Did they care that it was going to be nearly impossible to show progress on rehabilitating the state’s infrastructure by 2022 in what at best would be a decades-long undertaking? Apparently not. In 2018, Whitmer cynically over-promised because she wanted to win; she would worry about the consequences later. Now, Michiganders are realizing she has under-delivered. What’s more, because of the shortages in skilled labor and supply, road and bridge conditions may get worse before they get better.

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Question 3): MIRS newsletter has noticed that polling shows Gov. Gretchen Whitmer under-performing with female voters. Democratic Attorney General Dana NESSEL and Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn BENSON  hold plus-4 advantages among female voters against potential opponents, but Whitmer is tied with Republican James CRAIG at 46%.  Can she win in November if this doesn’t change?

Answer 3): Sure, she can. All three women could win by such healthy margins that a 4% gender deficit for one of them (Whitmer) wouldn’t make any difference. Besides, we don’t know whom the poll was matching Whitmer against; whoever the Republican nominee turns out to be could matter. That said, Nessel and Benson enjoy an advantage with women that Whitmer doesn’t possess — they’re in jobs where gender shouldn’t make a difference in voting behavior, regardless of whether you like their politics or not. Voters are just as likely to approve or disapprove of how Benson has handled her motor vehicle branch offices and the voting process regardless of whether they’re men or women. Whitmer, however, can get the blame from women because of the way that the COVID-19 pandemic has had a disproportionate impact on females in many ways.  Women are likely to be less satisfied than men with the way things have going for the past two years, and some of that may be expressed in polls. Many women have been working on the front lines as essential workers, while others have taken on new homeschooling and care-giving responsibilities that have forced them to leave the workforce. However, Whitmer may get some help if the U.S. Supreme Court overturns Roe. v. Wade or weakens it. Polls show that Whitmer would be the beneficiary if she is perceived as  the last line of defense against Republican attacks on women’s right to bodily autonomy. Only Nessel might be helped similarly.

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Question 4): MIRS also raised the question last week of whether there might be a realistic scenario under which Whitmer loses re-election November 8 while Nessel and Benson both win?

Answer 4): That would be highly unlikely, although not inconceivable. It would depend on whomever the Republicans nominate for governor, and money — or lack thereof — could be a factor. If Perry Johnson is the GOP nominee, you could see a megabucks repeat of the 2006 race between Dick DeVos and Jennifer Granholm, and all bets might be off, although Granholm easily won that contest in what was a big Democratic wave.  It’s hard to see campaign cash being a factor in an Attorney General or Secretary of State race — those offices are far less visible, and neither the incumbents nor their challengers, who will be almost completely unknown, will have the resources to raise their name ID and credibility as candidates. Let’s note that it is almost impossible to defeat a sitting A.G. or SoS — the last time the former happened was nearly seven decades ago, and only Dick Austin as an incumbent Secretary of State in 1994 has been defeated since 1954. During that same span of time, only two governors, both Democrats, have been defeated for re-election — John Swainson in 1962 and James Blanchard in 1990. It’s probable that all three Democratic incumbents this year will sink or swim together.

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Question 5): According to AAA-Michigan, gas prices in Michigan fell to an average of $3.95 a gallon a week ago, which is nine cents less than the week before that and 31 cents less than a month ago. However, that’s still $1.16 more than a year ago. How low would gas prices need to fall to make this a non-issue before November?

Answer 5): There is no magic number, and we are about to hit ‘summer gas’ in many counties. But gas is simply the most visible face of inflation, which is wreaking havoc on Michiganders right now. Its more than gas; it’s the price and availability of food basics, the cost of daycare, and so much more. Everything is getting more expensive. We’re at 7.9% inflation — a rate we haven’t hit in four decades. Gas prices are unlikely to decrease substantially any time soon, and that means a lot of politicians are going to get blamed for it, especially President Joe Biden. He’s a Democrat, and even though it may not be logical to blame Gretchen Whitmer’s policies on the increased price of gas at the pump, she, too, is a Democrat closely associated in the public mind with Biden, whose policies she has not spoken out against.

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