Question 1): Michigan Board of Education President Pamela PUGH two weeks ago became the latest Democrat to announce she is running for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by retiring U.S. Sen. Debbie STABENOW (D-Lansing) in 2024. Pugh has twice been elected statewide to the SBE,
Pugh touted her “Saginaw grit,” and said her campaign will be “a movement. I invite you to join us or simply move out of the way.” She said her campaign will be about acknowledging climate change as a threat and finding solutions to address it. It will also be about “safe schools and equitable funding. It’s about making sure children have access to education. It’s about economic dignity for all and quality and affordable health care for all.”
Pugh joins Rep. Elissa SLOTKIN (D-Holly), SE Michigan business executive Nasser BEYDOUN, and former state Rep. Leslie LOVE in the Democratic primary. Actor Hill HARPER is also considering a run. On the Republican side, it is Board of Education member Nikki SNYDER and entrepreneur Michael HOOVER to date.
If this turns out to be the final field of candidates for both major parties next year, how could the state of the race be described at this point? Who would be the likely Democratic nominee? Who will the Republicans nominate? Who will win the seat in the November 2024 general election?
Answer 1): It’s almost inconceivable that this will be the field for either party at the filing deadline next spring. So far, everything that has happened simply solidifies the near-certainty that Elissa Slotkin will win the Democratic primary. However strong Pugh, Love, and Harper may prove to be as candidates, they are all African-American and will split the black vote among them, making it even more likely that Slotkin will waltz to an easy victory in the primary. As much as a quarter of the Democratic primary vote may be black, but even if one of the three African-Americans should garner an overwhelming share of that 25% it would still leave him or her well short of what the heavily-funded Slotkin will rack up. Down ballot statewide officeholders historically do not fare well when running for top-of-the-ticket statewide offices like governor or U.S. Senator. Witness former two-term Secretary State Terri Lynn Land, who had far more name ID and experience in office than either Pugh or Love, yet Land got pummeled by Democratic Congressman Gary Peters in 2014 when they faced off for the U.S. Senate. One of the Republicans, Nikki Snyder, obviously has a familiar name (like former Gov. Rick Snyder, although they’re not related), but she’s been elected only once statewide and virtually no-one is aware of her presence on the SBE, where she is stuck in a 6-2 GOP minority. If it’s Slotkin vs. Snyder in 2024, Slotkin will win in a walk. Nothing is likely to change on the Democratic side between now and next year. The only possibility would be if the beleaguered Michigan GOP somehow manufactures a credible nominee with deep pockets — someone like U.S. Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, who came out of nowhere to knock off an incumbent Democrat a decade ago, which appears unlikely. Or another someone such as hedge fund billionaire Richard McCormick of Pennsylvania, who might be a Senator today if he hadn’t been edged by Trump-backed Dr. Mehmet Oz in a GOP primary.
Question 2): Could there be a recession just around the corner? Some economists, who are usually wrong, think so. But sometimes they’re right — back in 2001-02, nobody saw a recession coming, but it did, anyway. Tax revenue from Michigan’s 12 major taxes in May 2003 was 11.7% below 2002 revenues. Lawmakers came to regret their actions of only a few months earlier in spending a huge amount of revenue that they realized they should have saved. The incoming governor – Democrat Jennifer GRANHOLM – wasn’t delighted, either. Now it’s 2023. Once again, the state capitol’s hallways seem (figuratively) bulging with money – most of which was doled out by the feds. New crews of Democrats control the Legislature and are working with Gov. Gretchen WHITMER on a state budget fashioned solely under Democratic control for the first time in four decades. Meanwhile, many economists (again!) see a national recession looming.
So, the question is, How much concern should there be about a possible pending national recession impacting the approach Michigan Democrats take as they piece together the state budget?
Answer 2): Democrats should tread lightly with decisions they make on the budget, but they probably won’t. The word recession is on the lips of almost every economist in sight. They should have ready a Plan A, Plan B and a Plan C that they can put in place in case a recession rolls in faster than some may anticipate. If, for whatever reason, Michigan residents are once again asked to reach into their own pockets to manage an economic downturn, there will be consequences at the ballot box in 2024. In the handful of districts that will determine who controls the Michigan House, the only issues that will matter will be economic in nature. Voters across the ideological spectrum want elected officials to spend their tax dollars wisely. Sometimes that means spending extra for necessary programs, but most of the time it means leaving enough in the bank to provide cover on a rainy day. The big problem won’t be this year when they are simply spending all the free Bidenbucks; it’s going to be next year when they can’t continue the spending spree and are going to have to make cuts. Then they will find that governing is difficult.
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Question 3): Considering that the Democrats control the Legislature, and that there are many new lawmakers just learning the ropes, this year’s budget process should be the easiest a Democratic governor who dominates her party will ever deal with, right?
Answer 3): After years of facing a Republican-led Legislature, the Governor and her team are surely enjoying the less contentious environment, but they still must navigate the process of convincing legislators to look beyond district lines and see the big picture. Being able to identify which areas of the budget to prioritize always goes more smoothly when you are negotiating with members of your own party. It IS a negotiation, though, and, regardless of tenure, each legislator is going to have his or her own list of wants and needs and some of those may well conflict with those of the governor. It becomes the task of leadership to manage competing requests, and those conversations do not necessarily go as predicted. While the Democrats might look like they have an easy budget process ahead of them, negotiating takes place right up until the final moments before bills pass, even among allies. Majority Democrats have been able to band together to move some major priorities already this year, but their slim majority could easily go off the rails over one or two issues where the party may be internally fractured. Whitmer and her Dems would be wise not to count their budgetary chickens before they hatch. Democrats have the reputation of loving to spend, so if it appears they are doing whatever Whitmer wants, like giving $175 million to a company connected to the Chinese Communist Party, they may invite trouble.
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Nasser Beydoun expanded the Arab-American Chamber of Commerce to form relationships with corporations such as Ford Motor Company and he served as a diplomat in the Middle East.
He is the first Arab Muslim to run for the U.S. Senate in Michigan. Ironically, Slotkin and Beydoun both are Arabic-speaking.
Beydoun’s candidacy is historic and it is conceivable in a crowded primary he could win a victory. However the odds-on favorite will likely remain to be Slotkin with massive campaign funding available.
Nikki (Nicolette) Snyder is a registered nurse in her late 30s and mother from Washtenaw County – she will likely have more voter-appeal than Hoover who is largely an unknown in GOP circles.