MICHIGAN’S NEW MAPS — HOW GOOD ARE THEY? AND DOES ANYBODY CARE THAT THE STATE SQUANDERED $8.5 BILLION?

Question 1): MIRS newsletter this week quoted the late, great George Bernard SHAW this way: “If all the economists were laid end to end, they’d never reach a conclusion.” MIRS imagined that Shaw may have considered making a similar observation about attorneys, but probably didn’t want to get sued. So, let’s consider the Michigan Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission (MICRC), a body that did seek legal advice and presumably listened to that advice. It then redrew Michigan’s political maps without establishing guidelines or rules for doing so. In addition, the panel showed no deference to the Apol Standards, which the courts had already accepted. It also bought into a new legal interpretation of the federal Voting Rights Act.

So, bottom line: What are the chances that none of the maps produced by the Michigan Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission (MICRC) will stand up to legal scrutiny?

Answer 1): Let’s say 2-1 odds on the Congressional map (33% chance it will pass muster), and 4-3 (about 42%) that the two state legislative maps will survive. There is also the question of what “stand up” constitutes. A court could order a full or partial “tweak” of a map, rather than a wholesale revision. So you could have one or more of the maps largely “hold up” but still not be impervious to small revisions. Some think resolving all this could last into 2023, or that this year’s election deadlines could be extended (it’s happened before).

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Question 2): What are the toughest decisions prospective candidates face in terms of their uncertainty about what the state’s political maps will end up looking like for the 2022 election?

Answer 2): It’s where they live. Can they stay put, or do they have to move? How disruptive is that to their personal lives? Unlike in days of yore, when incumbent officeholders like state Rep. Dominic Jacobetti (D-Negaunee) could be sure he was in it for the long haul (four decades), nowadays,  under term limits in the Legislature, how long can candidates count on a career in elective office? Do they throw their personal and family lives into a cocked hat just for a few years in the state House or Senate? And how do you organize a campaign or raise money when you don’t even know what district you may be running in, assuming you decide to go through with it.

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Question 3): There is a scenario under which (due to time restraints and legal snags) Michigan’s current (2012 to 2020) House and Senate maps would still be used for the 2022 election. How upset would the average voter be if things turned out that way?

Answer 3): The average voter doesn’t give a hoot, but certain interest groups certainly would be upset, particularly the Michigan Democratic Party, which would have to live through at least one more election cycle under what they consider blatant gerrymanders approved by the Republican-controlled Legislature in 2011. This actually happened back in 1962 — the districts of the previous decade were “frozen” for two years —  yet the state survived.

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Question 4): It’s now estimated that Michigan paid out a whopping $8.5 billion in fraudulent jobless claims since the beginning of the pandemic. Meanwhile, many workers who legitimately tried to draw unemployment benefits went weeks and weeks without getting any. How should Gov. Gretchen WHITMER respond to political attacks that use this issue against her?

 Answer 4): So far, Whitmer and her UI administrators have responded by blaming their favorite whipping boy, former Gov. Rick Snyder. They say Whitmer inherited a defective computer system from Snyder that wasn’t equipped to handle the avalanche of claims that cascaded into the UI office in the throes of the pandemic. But Whitmer had more than a year to get on top of this allegedly dysfunctional system before COVID-19 hit us. And the general public doesn’t like to hear excuses from the sitting governor — they simply want to know why she didn’t fix it, and whether it’s been fixed now. What happened with these fraudulent claims, coupled with the inability of those who qualified for relief but were ignored and mistreated for months, is in fact one of the worst examples of state government incompetence that has occurred in the last half-century. John Sellek, CEO of Harbor Strategies, put it this way:  “(The governor’s) response thus far of talking about the fixes implemented after this disaster, and claims of fraud that was stopped, leaves out the pursuit of criminals. It’s surprising the administration hasn’t spent more time publicizing prosecutions started by Attorney General Dana NESSEL’s task force, but maybe that’s because it hasn’t been super successful. It may also tell us that, believe it or not, losing $8 billion of ‘Washington’s money’ during the rush of the pandemic response doesn’t rank as high of a danger to the Governor’s reelection as the likely coming testimonials on nursing homes, lost small businesses or angry parents. No doubt it’s been tested as part of a laundry list of negatives many times over.”