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You are here: Home / Uncategorized / MICHIGAN POLLS : DOES TUDOR DIXON REALLY HAVE A CHANCE?

MICHIGAN POLLS : DOES TUDOR DIXON REALLY HAVE A CHANCE?

October 24, 2022 by tbreport 11 Comments

Question 1): With a little more than two weeks left before the Nov. 8 election, MIRS newsletter reports that underfunded Republican gubernatorial nominee Tudor DIXON is within two percentage points of incumbent Gov. Gretchen WHITMER, according to a Mitchell Research & Communications survey commissioned by MIRS. The Oct. 19 survey of 541 respondents found Whitmer up 49% to 47%, which is within the poll’s margin of error of +/- 4.21%. The final 3% are undecided. The crosstabs are here.

Meanwhile, Attorney General Dana NESSEL is up on Republican nominee Matt DePERNO by a slim 46% to 43%, the survey says. Secretary of State Jocelyn BENSON has a stronger 49%-to-40% lead over Republican challenger Kristina KARAMO. And support for Proposal 3 is hemorrhaging — it’s now 50% “Yes” to 47% “No,” whereas just a month ago polls showed “Yes on 3” leading by at least 30 points.

The poll was conducted using automated Interactive Voice Response methodology, calling landlines and by text messaging voters’ cell phones and sending them to a SurveyMonkey page.

The Governor appears to have consolidated the Democratic vote; she’s leading that demographic by 92% to 6%. But Republicans are finally getting behind Dixon — 89% to 6%. The independents are going with Whitmer, 49% to 45%.

Asked “Which of two issues — inflation/the economy or abortion — is most important in determining (your) vote for governor and the Legislature?” 51% say “inflation and the economy” and 41% say “abortion.” Among independents, 56% say inflation/the economy, and 39% say abortion.

On Proposal 3, the question was, “If the election were held today, how would you vote on Michigan Proposal 3, which would amend the constitution in Michigan to establish the right to abortion?” The response was 50% yes, 47% no, and the remaining 3% undecided.

Prior to this question, the respondent pool was set with 40% strongly pro-choice voters, 13% somewhat pro-choice voters, 14% somewhat pro-life voters and 26% strongly pro-life voters. The final 6% were undecided.

There are reasons to be skeptical about polls. Do the people pollsters contact nowadays represent average voters? Do average Americans answer phone calls from unfamiliar numbers? What’s more, many Republicans in particular refuse to respond to surveys and routinely lie to pollsters, who are frustrated by this development. There’s also that 2016 factor, when nearly no one thought Donald TRUMP had a chance in Michigan, but he won, anyway. Pollsters in Michigan and nationally were also way off in 2020, watching the Blue Wave that they had predicted turn into a Dead Sea for Democrats, with Republicans picking up seats in Congress.

So, can we believe the latest Mitchell poll, or others preceding it that showed the gubernatorial race tightening dramatically since the first Whitmer-Dixon debate on October 13?

Answer 1): These races all seem to be tightening, because two other polls — by Trafalgar and CBS — showed similar results in the past week. After a strong debate performance and a statewide TV buy, Dixon apparently has closed the gap, which is remarkable considering that she’s been outspent more than 10-1 by the governor and her acolytes. Yes, Whitmer also did well in the debate, but she is facing a very bad economic environment that includes the highest inflation in more than 40 years. Both candidates are disciplined and strong campaigners, but Whitmer is also running with an unpopular Democratic president in the White House. With little more than two weeks to go before Nov. 8, no one is a clear winner yet, except probably Benson. Whitmer is banking heavily on the abortion issue, but this latest Mitchell survey shows that may not be the winner she thought it was. TV and online ads up-and-down the ballot tell where the headwinds are blowing against Democrats, with key words like tax cuts, spending, and firming up education and the economy predominating. Crime is likely coming next,  and maybe even immigration.

We also can’t forget that, in all these polls, support for Whitmer has never been able to get much above 50% if it even reaches that level. Despite the tens of millions of dollars spent on behalf of her campaign,  antipathy toward Whitmer in at least a quarter of the electorate is intense, more than it ever was toward previous Michigan Democratic governors like James Blanchard and Jennifer Granholm. Voters may have opposed those two on policy and specific issues, but the “fear and loathing” wasn’t present as it is towards Whitmer. Among previous Republican governors, only John Engler inspired the kind of antipathy that rivals what is now felt toward the current governor, lingering from the first two years of her tenure. People may not ever have warmed to Rick Snyder, but the personal animus now felt toward “Big Gretch” wasn’t there. Bill Milliken? By comparison, he’s the closest we’ve had in the last half-century to a bi-partisan saint.

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Question 2). A few weeks ago, Sen. Tom BARRETT (R-Charlotte)  hit U.S. Rep. Elissa SLOTKIN (D-Holly) for leasing a residency in Lansing from lobbyist Jerry Hollister, a medical manufacturing firm executive. Barrett questioned the nature of her relationship with Hollister. This past week-end, an MIGOP aide issued a press release under the headline: “Desperate times for Elissa Slotkin call for desperate measures. She’s bringing in one of the ultimate Washington swamp creatures in (U.S. Rep.) Jamie Raskin (D-MD), who has a long history of not only voting with Joe Biden 100% of the time, but has a checkered history of putting lobbyists first instead of his constituents, and flouting disclosure laws.”  Some observers say this is flimsy campaign fodder and therefore a sign that the Barrett campaign is desperate. Are they right? 

Answer 2): Maybe. The race for the new, marginal 7th Congressional District seat in Congress is reportedly the most expensive in the nation this year, with a heavy advantage for Slotkin in campaign cash. Barrett’s campaign is looking for anything it can find to call Slotkin’s judgment into question. It might seem desperate, but with a seat that has this much opportunity for both parties, attacks like this aren’t surprising. When it comes to issues in a political campaign, everything is in play. It could be argued that the optics for Slotkin aren’t good. To have moved from her home in Oakland County into the house of what is essentially a government relations official of a significant corporation in her district is an unforced error. This is the first time Rep. Slotkin’s personal judgment has suffered a dent, especially after building her brand as a CIA intelligence officer who specializes in details. Her staff should have found her somewhere else to live. Yet, it’s hard to imagine this tempest-in-a-teapot could be a decisive factor in the outcome of the race. What Barrett really needs to press is whether Slotkin is the “moderate, bipartisan” MC she claims to be, or whether she merely talks the talk — and projects it in millions of dollars in TV ads —- but fails to walk the walk in Washington, D.C., where she has voted with an unpopular President Joe Biden and Speaker Nancy Pelosi a very high percentage of the time. In fact, Barrett might claim that she is nowhere near the “independent” she claims to be. Therein lies any chance Barrett has for victory.

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Question 3): Because disgust with the two major political parties is at an all-time high, more people are asking than ever before what chance there might be of a third or ‘independent’ party forming that could achieve victory and try to turn the state and country around? Well, is there?

Answer 3): There are two chances — slim and none. The few times there have been third-party candidates have almost always revolved around a charismatic political personality (think Teddy Roosevelt or George Wallace) or a candidate with a lot of money (Ross Perot). Even that wasn’t enough to elect them.  If there is one major issue on which the two major parties agree, it’s how they can stop third parties from forming and getting traction, especially in Michigan. But there are other states where the laws governing third party formation are more liberal — take New Hampshire, for instance. There, a candidate named Richard Manzo was elected as a member of his hometown’s budget committee and as a trustee of its trust funds. This year, he’s running for the position of Treasurer of Hillsborough County, New Hampshire’s largest county, serving over 415,000 people.

If elected as treasurer, he will have a unique opportunity to offer a new look at what public finance should look like for communities nationwide — and help get other Libertarians elected.

Wait! What? A Libertarian, you say? Beating a Republican and a Democrat?

Well,not exactly, but there is an unusual quirk in New Hampshire election laws.

Since no Democrat filed for this office, Manzo and his Republican opponent both had the opportunity to earn the Democrat line on the ballot in addition to their own via a write-in campaign in the primary.

Manzo’s GOP opponent got 74 write-votes, which was a pretty good showing.

But Manzo received 993 write-in votes, blowing the Republican out of the water and capturing the Democratic ballot line.

That’s right: Manzo will appear TWICE on the ballot, which puts him in a strong position to win.

This is how New Hampshire elected around a half-dozen Libertarians to the state legislature, back before Manzo joined the party.

Manzo claims his message of fiscal responsibility, transparency, and impartiality is resonating with voters across the political spectrum, which is why he earned so many write-in votes in the primary. 

Could this happen in Michigan? Not now, but maybe it’s worth the next Legislature and governor considering.

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Reader Interactions

Comments

  1. John C Stewart says

    October 24, 2022 at 9:27 am

    If Gretchen Whitmer wins–this is a HUGE MESSAGE to REPUBLICANS. It hasn’t happened since 1950 (72 years ago) that an incumbent Democrat President-Harry Truman-in mid-term in MICHIGAN– re-elected an incumbent Democrat Governor, G. Mennen Williams. This is what would happen if incumbent Democrat Whitmer is re-elected Governor mid-term of an incumbent Democrat President Biden.
    REPUBLICANS HAVE ONLY WON TWO (2) STATEWIDE ELECTIONS-RICK SNYDER-IN THE LAST 24 YEARS SINCE JOHN ENGLER’S RE-ELECTION OF 1998.
    Republicans will never win a STATEWIDE ELECTION again unless, they nominate a moderate candidate. As Bill Ballenger has said, “Bill Milliken, Republican Governor of 14 years (1969-1983), is the closest WE HAVE HAD TO A BI-PARTISAN SAINT.”

    Reply
  2. Mark M. Koroi says

    October 24, 2022 at 9:37 am

    Real Clear Politics has already projected Tudor Dixon as the winner based upon a history of polling in Michigan that overstates the popularity of Democratic nominees. That error rate is 5.7%.

    Why does this error rate exist? Many Democrats are ashamed to tell a pollster that they are likely to vote for a GOP candidate. Many union workers – especially in the UAW and construction trades in Metro Detroit view the Democrats as beholden to a woke agenda and unconcerned about the needs of the middle class.

    Gretchen Whitmer is rightfully concerned about losing this election despite a 10-1 funding advantage.

    Reply
    • susan tocarchick says

      November 8, 2022 at 3:46 pm

      God help us all.

      Reply
  3. Thomas Moran says

    October 24, 2022 at 10:09 am

    I don’t trust the polls. Indeed, I hang up on any pollster that calls my cell phone or landline. Keep them guessing is what I believe. The only poll that counts is on Election Day. The extreme position on abortion that Dixon espouses of “No Exceptions for rape or incest” sealed her fate. Most people see shades of gray on abortion, As a former President said “ Abortion should be safe, rare and legal.” I agree and I am a Catholic voter.

    Reply
    • Whuffagowie says

      October 26, 2022 at 11:51 am

      As long as abortion is legal, it will never be “safe” (for whom?) or “rare”. Abortion is murder, in any form.

      Reply
    • susan tocarchick says

      November 8, 2022 at 3:56 pm

      I disagree with you, she is not against abortion as far as rape, incest, and life of the mother, her words were twisted. I too am a catholic. I voted yes on 3 and for Dixon. I believe Whitmer, Benson and Nessel are as crooked as they come. Corruption is running rampant in Macomb County but it is not just Macomb County it is the entire state. Michigan is a mess right now and Tudor Dixon is the lesser of two evils. I am not a Democrat or a Republican, I am tired of voting for the lesser of two evils. We had one descent candidate in Peter Meijer’s and because he voted to impeach Trump it cost him, his re-election. God help us all.

      Reply
  4. William Bishop says

    October 24, 2022 at 11:00 am

    Regarding Independent voters, remember that they (we) constitute almost 40% of the voters today, so the environment is dramatically different than when Perot ran for President.

    If you stand back and look at our political landscape today, Trump has trashed the Republican Party while the crazies have trashed the Democratic Party, so where does one go today if they happen to be sane?

    Reply
  5. Bob says

    October 25, 2022 at 10:16 pm

    This could be a surprise. The debate tonight was good for Dixon. I sure hope people wake up and realize Whitmer was pretty over the top during the Corona Virus and make the vote for Dixon. I am very surprised with your comments on third parties especially the Libertarians Bill. The Michigan Libertarian Party has Justin Amash. They should of run him for Governor. But, the Michigan Libertarian Party doesn’t seem to take politics serious. Do you really believe they can arise? What about Ryan Roberts? Would he be a good leader for them ?I think it will shock everyone to see Dixon win and Proposal 3 to fail

    Reply
    • Ricardo says

      October 26, 2022 at 6:05 pm

      You might be right.

      Only one thing is for sure though. It’s yard signs vs Google adds.

      NO wins the yard sign game hands down. YES wins the Google add game hands down.

      Darnedest thing I’ve ever seen, like 2 completely different worlds.

      Reply
  6. Ricardo says

    October 26, 2022 at 3:47 pm

    I grew up in Michigan, moved away to California and other States for 10 years and recently moved back. And I can say without a doubt that Michigan politics is the strangest duck I’ve ever seen.

    It’s like 1000s of little worlds (10 -200 people) all sandwiched together physically, but there is very little 2-way communication between the worlds. Almost like clans or tribes. And the members of the tribes all think that they are the best tribe. And the tribe sticks together. Red tribes, Blue tribes, unaffiliated tribes.

    In other places the nuclear family, Mom Dad and kids are about as big as the tribes ever get. So, the small tribes form into bigger alliances. But the big alliances are squishy and everyone understands that corruption Is just part of the game.

    Not so much in Michigan. People expect their politicians to be more like patriarchs of families, who lead the tribe. Rather than real estate agents that you hire to get you the best price on a house.

    Very different from everywhere else I’ve lived.

    Reply
  7. Jeffrey N. says

    October 26, 2022 at 11:28 pm

    Prop 3 should fail for one simple reason. It involves a complex legal matter on a “take or leave it” basis that wrongfully overlooks numerous interaction with other laws such a parental consent for minors / judicial bypass; taxpayer funding; appropriate regulations; etc. It will lead to more protracted litigation and court involvement. It will continue the toxic effect of this issue on the judiciary. The Legislature and Governor need to do their job. Enact compromise legislation which reflects the majority sentiment of the people. Abortion on demand to birth does not. Absolute prohibition does not. Safe, legal and rare can be had.

    Reply

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