Question 1): A survey commissioned by MIRS newsletter week before last found Republican gubernatorial nominee Tudor Dixon closing what earlier had been a huge polling gap with Gov. Gretchen Whitmer to a skimpy two points — 49% to 47%. However, closing “most” of the gap isn’t the same as having caught up. Whitmer still remains the front runner and is the likely winner, right?
Question 2): Who won the Second Debate? Whitmer or Dixon?
Answer 2): No to the former question, and “It could” to the latter. Neither candidate made any major gaffes or performed in a way that might be considered “disqualifying” such as occurred in the debate in Pennsylvania the same night between two candidates for the U.S. Senate, Democrat John Fetterman and Republican Mehmet Oz. For Whitmer, that was a plus, because she’s been ahead in the polls — either by a lot or, more recently, a little — and she needed to simply avoid making a major mistake, thereby emerging from the debate relatively unscathed.
Dixon’s performance was also a plus, because she was able to reinforce the positive impression she made in the first debate and improve her name ID, which is now up to 91% despite being scarily underfunded. She was also able to one-up Whitmer on the subject of Michigan Catastrophic Claims Association (MCCA) refunds. The Governor tried to exploit Dixon’s lack of government experience by pointing out that a governor doesn’t decide the size of MCCA refunds. This is done by the MCCA, which is made up of insurance company executives. Said Whitmer: “Mrs. Dixon is showing you how ill-prepared she is for this job. The governor doesn’t decide for the Michigan Catastrophic Claims Association what the checks are going to be.” Dixon replied: “I’m glad she admitted that because her commercials are constantly saying that she gave $400 checks back to everyone.” Score ONE for Dixon.
The Republican also put Whitmer on the defensive on the governor’s claim that, during the pandemic, she kept students out of school for only three months. Here was Dixon’s retort: “I’m pretty sure I just heard an audible gasp around town when Gretchen Whitmer said that kids were out of school for three months. Perhaps she wasn’t paying attention to what was actually happening. We even had schools that were closed this year. It is shocking to me she thinks that schools were only closed for three months, or maybe she thinks she can convince you that schools were only closed for three months, but you know better.”
On the issue of the Line 5 light crude oil pipeline under the Straits of Mackinac, Whitmer has long advocated shutting it down but observed in the debate that it had not been, implying that was fine with her. Dixon, however, called the governor out on her obvious duplicity this way: “Line 5 has not been shut down, but that’s not because Gretchen Whitmer hasn’t tried . . . In fact, (Canadian Prime Minister) Justin TRUDEAU, who I would say is the most radical environmentalist in the entire world, came out and invoked a 1977 treaty telling Gretchen Whitmer that she could not shut down Line 5.” Whitmer did better on the issues of armed guards in schools and right wing conspiracy theories about 2020 election fraud, but she didn’t draw any blood from Dixon.
Question 3). To what extent has the abortion issue run out of steam in terms of its overall impact on this election? If it has, how much does that hurt Whitmer and other Democrats in down-ballot races? And might President Joe Biden’s pledge to have Roe v Wade abortion rights reinstated at the federal level end up depressing pro-choice voter turnout for Proposal 3?
Answer 3): Yes, the abortion issue has faded as a salient issue, particularly for the pro-choice side of it. No, Biden’s pronouncements on this issue will have zero impact on what happens on Nov. 8. Yes, the eroding support for Proposal 3 is hurting Whitmer, who pegged much of her campaign to 3’s seeming popularity in polling since last spring. Moreover, if Whitmer loses, or wins but by only a narrow margin, that’s a far cry from what Democrats were hoping for during the past three months. They felt they needed a blow-out win over Tudor Dixon at the top of the ticket to carry down-ballot Democrats to victory in races for Congress and the state Legislature. Now, it doesn’t look like that’s going to happen. Abortion looked like the No. 1 issue all summer until about a month ago, but then $20 million+ in media buys by pro-life forces have brought what was a +30% edge for the “Yes” side on Proposal 3 down to a dead-heat, with a distinct possibility that the proposal might lose, just as a similar proposal lost back in 1972. The pro-life side of the Prop 3 debate has outperformed expectations. What the pro-choice community underestimated was how motivated and organized the pro-life community would be in their effort to defeat “3.” Indeed, it’s questionable whether the Democrats’ attempt to make the election “all about Roe” was a wise strategy. It’s always difficult to concentrate voters’ attention on only one issue for as long as six months. The shock value of any issue — even a hurricane or another natural disaster — fades. What’s more, the abortion message has remained relatively static news-wise, whereas inflation generates ghastly new headlines daily.
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So maybe our next governor is the one that said this: https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/dixon-gop-michigan/2022/10/28/id/1093945/. Claiming that the Democrats want to “topple the US” in revenge for losing the Civil War, and have been working on it for decades, is a combination of vileness and ignorance. But, in today’s politics, Dixon has a chance.
Excellent analysis…
Nice article, Bill. As much as it pains me to say so, I would argue Dixon won both debates on points, whether that is enough or not to win, I don’t know. Politics is a lot like boxing in that regard. Usually, you don’t unseat a champ on points, you have to knock out them out.
What strikes me as most interesting is Barack Obama coming into Michigan to campaign relatively late in the season. That tells me that, despite her huge money advantage (is it 10 – 1 or so?) effectively trying to carpet bomb Dixon into the political stone age and what could most politely be described as disinterest in Dixon by the GOP establishment, Whitmer’s polling shows the race much too close for her comfort. And that makes for fun election watching. And if Whitmer wins narrowly despite that huge money advantage, methinks her national career might be winged.
As for the comparisons to Abraham and Blanchard, Blanchard was too busy running to VP and Engler took full advantage with his promise to cut property taxes.
As for Abraham, he had, as a candidate, all the charisma of soggy newspapers as well as the disdain of some of the GOP establishment. You covered that race in the Ballenger Report back in the day as I recall.
I do not know if Dixon can, or will, overtake Whitmer on election day (or whenever the ballots are through being counted), or how well either party does on election day, but the aftershocks will be quite interesting and entertaining.
For the Democrats, fixing blame will be the loud and nasty; jockeying for 2026 (depending on who won and lost in 2022) will be in full swing; and the debate over how to fix the problem(s) by either moving further left or ditching that and moving closer to the center will dominate.
Things could be just as interesting for the GOP. Dixon has run as a populist and earned the enmity of many GOP establishment types who have sat on their wallets. (I think they wanted Perry Johnson or James Craig, but they did not do the basics needed to get them on the ballot). Will Dixon extract revenge ala Trump? If not, how much groveling will she impose on them.
A good time to be a political reporter, assuming your media employer will deploy the necessary resources.
One salient issue that could tilt the election in Whitmer’s favor is the resurgence of the Libertarian Party nominee receiving 2.6% in gubernatorial polling. This likely hurts Tudor Dixon as it siphons off GOP votes.
On the other hand, I know many, many Michigan Democrats that will vote for Tudor Dixon – particularly union members and those in Macomb County who see Whitmer as beholden to progressive agendas that are repugnant to their respective values and interests.
This phenomenon is even more marked with respect to Dana Nessel’s candidacy. Additionally, Nessel has seen her office lose cases – such as the Flint water prosecution. Nessel has more tenuous chances of re-election.
Bill, your reporting on elections is getting boring since it’s all speculation. The real poll that matters is what happens on election day, then go for it.
In the interim, what you should be reporting on is Lee Chatfield’s corruption and sex abuse scandals when he was Speaker and House member. So far, the Michigan Republican House has not taken this issue up, when citizens deserve to know what went on back then. Any state political party owes it to its constituents to investigate and report its findings.
The massive deceptions and outright distortions of the major issues by the Progressive Leftists is very troubling .Please justify the massive influx of “dark money” by outstate interests into the Democrat’s coffers!
Yes, the massive deceptions and outright distortions and lies of the major issues by MAGA republicans are very troubling. Please justify the massive influx of “dark money” by outstate interests into the Republican coffers!
Whitmer will win going away. The polls show it getting close because the Independents have taken a pause, half will vote for Dixon, the other half Whitmer, making Whitmer the winner. Both campaigns could have done better if they had read my book “A DISTANY RUMBLE”. ( Sorry for the plug, but it;s true.)
Sory Thats ” A DISTANT RUMBLE”
If Gretchen Whitmer wins one week from tomorrow-this is a HUGE MESSAGE TO REPUBLICANS.
REPUBLICANS HAVE ONLY WON TWO (2) STATEWIDE ELECTIONS-RICK SNYDER-IN THE LAST 24 YEARS SINCE JOHN ENGLER’S RE-ELECTION OF 1998 OVER GEOFFREY FIEGER.
Republicans will never win a STATEWIDE ELECTION again unless, we nominate a moderate candidate. Bill Ballenger has said, “Bill Milliken, Republican Governor of 14 years (1969-1983), is the closest WE HAVE HAD TO A BI-PARTISAN SAINT.”
President Biden’s speech Nov 2 is really a “cover” for the Progressive socialist Leftist goal of transforming the Nation away from the Constitutional Republic created by the Founders. The present system of Govt , along with Freedom of Speech and the BILL OF RIGHTS and Division of Powers are obstructions for achieving that goal.
Any fair-minded person would say that Dixon more than held her own against Whitmer in the debates; she outperformed her.
Unfortunately for Dixon, it will likely not be enough and the election continues to be Gretchen’s to lose. How can people still cling to the hackneyed charge that the Republicans are the party of the wealthy only when the Dems’ war chest is consistently much, much larger? It’s not even close thanks to PAC money from the Uber-rich.
Dixon has run a solid campaign and is a solid candidate, in my opinion. I am far more impressed by her than Whitmer or Nessel.