Question 1): What might we anticipate will be the public’s reaction if there is a state government shutdown on October 1 because Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and the Legislature fail to reach a deal on the FY 2025-26 budget?
Answer 1): Disgust, but resignation. After all, the electorate has seen this movie before, albeit rarely, and the State of Michigan did not collapse when it happened. In fact, few can remember any serious ramifications. Besides, the public will expect that the budget impasse will be resolved quickly after September 30, as it was in 2007 and 2009. But if it drags on and people start feeling the effects through the government programs they rely on, it could hurt various state elected officials in the next election.
Let’s ask someone who went through all this before, not just once but twice, less than two decades ago. State Rep. Chuck Moss (R-Birmingham) was a member of the minority House GOP caucus in a divided Legislature with a Democratic governor, just like now. The only difference was that today it’s the House that is controlled by Republicans and the Senate where there is a slim, 20-18, Democratic majority.
Moss recalls that, outside the capital bubble in Lansing, the public was not amused. Respect and trust for Lansing was in very short supply. For example, says Moss, “I was a state Rep in those days, and with a county commissioner buddy I met another Rep for lunch in a small-town bar in northern Michigan. I wore jeans and a T Shirt, but my colleague sported a State House windbreaker, complete with state seal.
“Are you really a State Representative?” asked the waitress.
“Yes, ma’am,” my fellow Rep said. “I am.”
“You buttheads!!!” she yelled. “You morons! Why can’t you get your budget done!”
I turned to him: “Yeah! What’s wrong with you guys!”
“What!!” he pointed at me. “He’s one, too!”
“Not me,” I shrugged, pointing to my T shirt. “I mow lawns for a living.”
“At that point, anywhere in Michigan, you’d be better off with a tag saying “child molester” than “Legislator.” But the most opprobrium was reserved for the top: the Governor. The chaos made then-Gov. Jennifer Granholm look weak and ineffective, and with her second term winding down, she kept a low profile until replaced by Republican Rick Snyder, the “One Tough Nerd” finance guy. Together with new Republican House majorities in both House and Senate (that makes all the difference), Snyder got the budget done by June 1, and got a July 1 deadline for the K-12 school aid budget passed into law.
“However, this July 1 date bears no penalty for being violated, so it’s easy to blow past, which is what has happened this year.
“So, here we are! Same as it ever was. We’re heading for the September 30 deadline with all sides dug in and blaming each other. Will we have drama and last minute heroics, or drop over the deadline into fiscal Armageddon? That lasted just hours back then, but who can be sure what will happen this year? In sum, based on experience, just remember:
“1) Everyone will look bad, but the Governor will look the worst.
“2) If a shutdown happens, lawmakers should wear bags over their heads in public. Paper ones, please.”
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Question 2): To what extent is the emergency continuation budget the state House passed in March an option for majority Senate Democrats and the governor to consider?
Answer 2): We can be suspicious that the early move by majority House Republicans to pass an emergency continuation budget was a ploy or trap designed to eventually embarrass Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Senate Democrats, but it’s looking like it was a sensible move given what has happened since. The House GOP has given itself some cover by being able to say “We told you so” if a government shutdown happens. Indeed, Whitmer and the Senate might be wise to take the House up on it right now. It’s not too late!
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Answer 3): Nobody — it’s a plague on both houses as well as the governor. The public realizes that when we have divided government, this is likely to occur. It’s been a debacle waiting to happen.
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Answer 4): Simple answer: Someone who isn’t part of the Lansing meltdown — Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan. In fact, it’s a pillar of his gubernatorial campaign, i.e., “Lansing is broken, both political parties are to blame, and I’m the one to fix it. That’s what I’ve done in Detroit.” Indeed, after years of acrimony between Detroit mayors and the city council dating back to Coleman Young, Duggan adroitly mended fences with the council and took rancor off the table and always reached a deal on the city’s budget.
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This article is a reason that BOTH GOP and Dem grassroots and leaders are backing Mike Duggan’s candidacy for governor.
Petty bickering and maneuvering is turning off voters.
Jocelyn Benson’s support base in Wayne County will be ravaged by the groundswell in support of Duggan. She is a liberal who leans progressive.
Expect Duggan likewise to draw moderate GOP voters and activists from Oakland and Macomb Counties into his camp.
Rick Snyder was a bipartisan leader that drew in moderates – he won in a landslide in 2010. Milliken likewise was a moderate who took the governor’s office in 1970 and 1974.
There is the Minnesota precedent of GOP Norm Coleman and Dem Hubert Humphrey III losing the governor’s race to Jesse Ventura running as essentially an independent.
Does Duggan have a reasonable shot at the governor’s office? Yes.
Duggan benefitted from all the monies taken from city retirees pensions and healthcare elimination.
Hey Bill! Timely subject. But what else would we expect from our favorite analytical expositor?
Wrt Q#1: Yeah, you and Rep Moss got it about right. Hard to increase my personal disgust with Michigan politics but this could do it. No cure for it though.
Wrt Q#2: I don’t suspect mitigating stipulations of budgetary shutdowns are present in the state constitution as they are in the federal, but I am sure we’ll get by just fine for any extended period of time, which I have a feeling this time is going to be for a relatively long time. I am sure other TBR respondents can add significantly to this facet.
Wrt Q#3: Caesar’s party always have a built-in edge on these matters in the MI MSM. Down in the ditches where I live, we don’t hear from those MIGOP folks ’round here. We always have the MSM to gaslight us on the local news into what we are supposed to believe about our beloved [sic] Dems, while Republicans have to rely on the vanishing vestiges of our Judeo-Christian ethic implanted during our long-lost upbringing to direct us open loop.
Wrt Q#4: Thanks for the opening, I think I will show a bit of my conspiratorial leaning here. Why won’t Gov Whitmer endorse Benson? Clearly, she wants Duggan. Benson represents the ideological leaning of the Senate. Whitmer is closest to the House. Primes Duggan to take the middle ground. Even though we are likely to get a lot of what the Repubs are proposing, I suspect Duggan will launch a scorched earth ethnic cleanse of the Republicans once he is elected so he doesn’t have to do this twice.
The only challenge to this scenario, I see, will be if the Repubs grow a spine and refuse give in to the Duggan juggernaut and actually run a real campaign. Does anyone have any belief in this happening? Someone please say, yes, so I can have a good laugh, the only humor in any of this business.
Bill, another great one!
As a non-politician, here’s my take. All the Democratic candidates for governor are idiots and probably dishonest. The Repubs are idiots and the jury is out on their honesty. Mike Duggan probably is not St. Peter but I don’t believe he’s stupid. That puts him ahead of the competition.
I agree he isnt stupid. He is a democrat who will govern as a democrat, but is running as an independent because it improves his chances of winning. With the huge #WalkAway movement from the democrat party, growing every day with the lateat evil, the numbers willing to vote D are dwindling rapidly.
How will a shutdown affect Governor Whitmer’s Presidential prospects? Will this motivate her?
Do not think it will matter nationally to any significant extent.
Republicans will likely publicize her links to prolific campaign donor Fay Beydoun and in what way she or her appointees may have facilitated the $20-million grant that was never used for its intended purposes.
Why the State of Michigan has done nothing meaningful to recover monies or to force an accounting that is complete questions effective oversight. Why has Whitmer not called on MEDC Director Quentin Messer to resign?
Same with the alleged election fraud occurring in Hamtramck over a period of years. The refusal of the Democrats to call out this activity is telling. they are reluctant to investigate and hold accountable fellow Democrats. At least that’s how it appears to many observers.
Bill, you’re spot on! Duggan will indeed be propelled to the top of guv list if there’s a shutdown. Whitmer will fade from the Presidential race- you can’t win if the last thing people remember you for is a shutdown .
Nice and interesting article, Bill.
QUESTION 1: Depends on the length of the shutdown. A short shutdown almost no one will notice. A longer shutdown, maybe. Off limits state-owned hunting grounds during hunting season – despite the decline in the raw number of hunters out there – will upset lots of folks. Closed SOS offices, less so (assuming they let you drive on expired tabs as they did during COVID). No Medicaid payments to hospitals and nursing homes, a much bigger problem.
The problem is the nature of our politics today. In his “Very Serious” article in Substack of September 19th, Josh Barro quotes from Lakshya Jain from the relatively new liberal online publication “The Argument”. As is my wont, the quoted material will be in all caps. The first two paragraphs are as follows:
IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE SHOOTING DEATH OF CHARLIE KIRK, I CAN’T STOP THINKING ABOUT A SURVEY A FEW WEEKS AGO FROM THE NEW LIBERAL PUBLICATION THE ARGUMENT. THE SURVEY INCLUDED THE QUESTION: “DO YOU THINK HAVING OPPOSING POLITICAL VIEWS IS EVER AN ACCEPTABLE REASON TO CUT OFF CONTACT WITH A FAMILY MEMBER?” AND 40% OF 2024 HARRIS VOTERS SAID YES, COMPARED TO JUST 11% OF TRUMP VOTERS AND 18% OF RESPONDENTS WHO DIDN’T VOTE.
“I THINK LIBERALS HAVE GOT TO UNDERSTAND THAT WE, AS A CONSTITUENCY, ARE VERY MUCH UNLIKE THE REST OF AMERICA,” WROTE LAKSHYA JAIN, THE ARGUMENT’S DIRECTOR OF POLITICAL DATA AND POLLS. “IT’S NOT JUST THAT WE’RE DIFFERENT FROM TRUMP VOTERS – IT’S THAT WE’RE VERY DIFFERENT FROM PEOPLE WHO DON’T VOTE AS WELL. THE FINDINGS ABOUT WHO WAS MORE LIKELY TO CUT OFF FRIENDS AND FAMILY OVER POLITICS REALLY UNDERSCORED THIS FOR ME, BECAUSE HARRIS VOTERS WERE THE ONLY GROUP THAT WAS EVEN CLOSE TO EVENLY SPLIT ON THAT. THAT’S NOT A STATEMENT THAT WE’RE WRONG, BUT IT IS A STATEMENT THAT THE REST OF AMERICANS VIEW AND INTERACT WITH THE WORLD VERY DIFFERENTLY THAN WE DO.”
The most important part is this from Ms Jain, “I THINK LIBERALS HAVE GOT TO UNDERSTAND THAT WE, AS A CONSTITUENCY, ARE VERY MUCH UNLIKE THE REST OF AMERICA… “IT’S NOT JUST THAT WE’RE DIFFERENT FROM TRUMP VOTERS – IT’S THAT WE’RE VERY DIFFERENT FROM PEOPLE WHO DON’T VOTE AS WELL.”
And that is true in Lansing as well. The chasm between both sides in Lansing is wide and deep. It’s as if the Democrats and Republicans live on different planets, have radically different understandings of our history and constitution, and speak different languages. And the problem with that is that compromise can be politically fatal. In the early days of Trump 2.0, you may recall the threat of a government shutdown. Chuck Schumer cut a deal so that the many thousands of federal workers would not be laid off, something he thought his constituents and the country at large would say was a good thing. Ah, not so fast. His own side heaped such vitriol on him that even Tucker Carlson would not use such language to describe him. And no matter what we think of politicians, they can learn from their mistakes. Expect no compromise. At least yet.
QUESTION 2: A continuation budget gives the appearance that they are working diligently. If they can handle the flack from the most vocal part of their base, the Democrats should take it. If the GOP suffers from a Federal government shutdown, Speaker Hall might be inclined to see – at least some things – their way and play Monty Hall. If the Dems catch the flack, Speaker Hall will smile.
QUESTION 3: You’re right, no one.
QUESTION 4: You’re partially right. Duggan will like it. Until he has to come up with a plan and not a platitude. Now this is something the GOP and Dems will be most insistent on. The question is, does he have one? I don’t know. Film at 11.
Mr. Hertel should concentrate on creating a bipartisan atmosphere which would enable the Budget negotiations to succeed rather than threatening fellow Democrats who don’t “tow the line” by supporting Mr. Duggan’s independent campaign for Governor. Bipartisanship benefited Detroit’s Citizens. It will also do the same for Michigan
From Michigan Advance:
“U.S. Rep. John James’ bid for governor in 2026, which has positioned itself as the frontrunner in the race, was knocked down a peg over the weekend after the campaign came in fourth among declared gubernatorial contenders in a Michigan Republican Party poll…..
…..Making matters potentially worse was the outcome of the straw poll, organized by conservative news outlet The Midwesterner. The poll sampled nearly 500 registered attendees at the event.
Results of the poll shared on social media showed Michigan Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt of Porter Township on top of the GOP gubernatorial primary field with 29% of votes cast. Former Michigan Speaker of the House Tom Leonard came in second with 23.5%; former Attorney General Mike Cox with 18.5%; and James in fourth with just 14% of votes cast…..”
When you do not campaign expect low polling numbers – see my comment below.
Aric Nesbitt and Mike Cox have vigorously campaigned throughout Metro Detroit. Both have raised large war chests over over $2-million apiece.
I was at a campaign event in DeWitt for Tom Leonard several weeks ago that was well-attended.
John James is not being seen on the campaign trail anywhere. So no real surprises in those poling numbers among GOP activists.
Bridge Magazine reported today that Governor Whitmer will not ask the Trump administration to send the National Guard into Detroit. It reports three of the GOP candidates have the opposite view:
“Three of the eight Republicans running— Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt of Porter Township, former House Speaker Tom Leonard and former Attorney General Mike Cox — told Bridge during the Mackinac Island Republican Leadership Conference that Detroit’s high crime rates warranted the move.
“If I was the governor of the state of Michigan,” Leonard noted, “I would be taking the federal government up on whatever help they were willing to give us.”
They make mention of the crime rate in Detroit:
“It’s not just murders that have declined, city spokesperson John Roach said last week following Vance’s speech — shootings and carjackings also fell to their lowest point since 1965, he said, crediting “Detroit’s law enforcement strategy.”
But even with the decreases, Detroit’s had more homicides (203) in 2024 than far bigger cities such as Dallas, which has twice as many people and had 20 fewer homicides. Detroit’s homicide rate of 32 per 100,000 people is higher than Chicago, which led US cities in total homicides (573.).”
A nascent issue which gubernatorial candidate Duggan will have to address.
Mark M. Koroi says
(Edit)Coleman Young was elected Mayor of Detroit in 1973.
That year the city had 751 homicides – which made the Guinness Book of World Records as the highest homicide rate in the world of any municipality with a population of at least one million.
Mayor Duggan cannot control people shooting and stabbing each other within city limits. Poverty and unemployment are drivers of violent inner city crime. The president and governor have much more control over those variables.
“Mayor Duggan cannot control people shooting and stabbing each other within city limits. Poverty and unemployment are drivers of violent inner city crime. The president and governor have much more control over those variables.”
Illegal activities – mostly drugs – are the main drivers of “people shooting and stabbing each other within [Detroit’s] city limits”. Mayor Duggan could have slashed drug sales, but chose not to. He had other priorities.
Now our esteemed Governor is rejecting the President’s overture to end the fun & games in Detroit by deploying the National Guard. The 30 day demonstration of National Guard deployment in Washington, D.C. puts paid to the lie that there is nothing to do about crime and violence in American cities.
Cities across this country have seen their police budgets gutted to produce funding for the frivolous pet projects of the left wing political class. This has created chaos which has killed a lot of Americans.
There has been a proliferation of legalized marijuana retailers along Eight Mile Road in Detroit. These are licensed facilities.
Obviously, Duggan cannot control the vast illegal drug sales that have plagued Detroit for decades and drove up a homicide rate to record levels in the 1970s.
As Wayne County Prosecutor, Michael Duggan vigorously enforced gun control laws. It was a hallmark of his administration.
The Gun Control Act of 1968 was passed as an Act of Congress following the MLK and RFK assassinations. The U.S. Department of Justice enforces this statute and therefore has concurrent jurisdiction with county prosecutors and Michigan Department of Attorney General with enforcing firearms laws.
Obviously Mayor Mike Duggan has little or no control over what the MSP, ATF, or Wayne County Sheriff may do in enforcing firearms laws.
I have, on the other hand, heard few people sing the praises on what a good job Dana Nessel has done as Michigan Attorney General. Ask some of the understaffed county prosecutors about their attempts to re-assign crimnal cases to Nessel’s office that they otherwise cannot handle due to case overload. These attempts were rebuffed by the AG office while Dana chased losing propositions against Rick Snyder in Flint and the 15 “fake electors”.
Nobody had claimed that Duggan was engaged in “lawfare” or otherwise squandered law enforcement resources on nonsense as Nessel has.
In 2003, Detroit had 3,700 sworn police officers. When Duggan was elected, Detroit had 2,700 sworn police officers. Today, Detroit has 2,465 sworn police officers, a 9% reduction during Duggan’s mayoralty.. This is, however, about a 600 officer increase from the DPD’s nadir in 2023. Detroit was down 34% during this decade before the public started screaming.
Over the period of Duggan’s mayoralty, Detroit’s budget has increased from $ 1.12 billion to $ 3 billion, a 267% increase. Detroit’s entire municipal government – including Duggan – does not prioritize crime, regarding it as an unavoidable annoyance. They have other priorities.
Royal says
(Edit)In about 1974, when the idea of gun control was fairly new, Coleman Young was asked why he didn’t favor gun control like the rest of the country was tilting toward. Paraphrasing his reply, ‘as long as the suburbs have one member of the KKK with a gun, I will not impose one measure of gun control in the city’. Shortly thereafter, rumors were floated of a “Grand Dragon” of the KKK was caught, or killed by a relative, in either Lake Orion or Walled Lake. I was heading to college about then and never got the full story. But I don’t recall anybody going back to Coleman to see if he changed his mind.
There has been a concerted national effort to eradicate supposed “white nationalists” from the national landscape ever since that time; 70+ years? To the point that hardly anybody would know one if they bit them. Oh sure, a rag tag group of about 50 shows up now and then to show their colors at event like Charlotte.
But hardly any effort to enforce gun controls or eradicate left-wing Marxists from our city streets. So much so that whenever they want to impose a “summer of love”, we get the innards of a city or two burned up from the inside out.
Crime rates always go down when the Soros-ite funded Marxists take over a city. When the crime is taken off the books to be enforced, there is no “crime”. But inner cities are gutted.
The mayors CAN and DO control crime. Either by enforcing the law or looking the other way.
The Democrats don’t want to govern, they want to rule. We were warned about these people in the Eighteenth Century.
BINGO!!!
Michigan’s state government is not alone in facing a shutdown due to failed FY2026 budget negotiations. The federal government has the same budget drop dead date as Michigan and federal negotiations are equally acrimonious. The federal negotiations are stymied by huge cost increases in PPACA Obamacare subsidies which Republicans believe are a consequence of corruption and Democrats see a a critical safety net.
It should be noted that the federal budget impasse feeds back into Michigan’s own budget impasse. Michigan’s state government depends upon the Feds for 40% to 50% of its budget funds. Uncertainty in the federal budget creates uncertainty in the Michigan budget.
James Varney has posted an investigation of the stalled federal budget negotiations at RealClearInvestigations titled ‘The Obamacare Sweeteners Poisoning Budget Negotiations’, Today, September 25, 2025
Happy days are here again
The skies above are clear again
So, let’s sing a song of cheer again
Happy days are here again . . .
Could we possibly dream that government would just go away and leave us alone?
FAT CHANCE!!! Government just keeps amassing power until it becomes totally unbearable, at which time there is a Revolution. Sometimes that results in even more draconian powers foisted upon the people; other times the chains finally are broken. Expect more of the former than the latter.
One way to reestablish freedom is to simply defund government. Meaning NO NEW TAXES—for ANYTHING! (Are you listening, GHWB?). This includes schools, who just use the funds to hire more non-teaching staff. Most municipal budgets are bloated and can easily be cut. Those who howl the loudest against trimming the fat are the ones slurping at the public trough.
News reports say Governor Whitmer, Speaker Hall, and Majority Leader Brinks have reached a tentative agreement on the FY2026 Michigan budget. Those same news reports provide some sparse details, but there is no press release on the Governor’s web site.
When the “government” shuts down the best option would be to do what #47 proposes. That is all non-essential employees be PERMANENTLY FIRED.
Non essential is just that.
Where do you draw the line?
Arlington National Cemetery has protocols for operation during a “shutdown”.
Do relatives of those fallen servicemen deserve to be turned away from a visit to a gravesite after traveling hundreds of miles. That has happened.
Is Head Start day-to-day operations “non-essential” – that would be subject to debate.
Trump47 may be a hero to some – but we need to ensure that reasonable limits are placed on what can constitute “non-essential” employment.
The political pain mitigation of continuing “essential” federal operations during periods without a legal budget is exactly why Washington politicians have no incentive to agree on appropriations bills, on a timely basis. They all know that “shutdowns” are a complete joke. The only real “shutdowns” are measures designed to target political enemies.
You want to end federal budgeting nonsense? Demand real shutdowns.