WITH LESS THAN 10 DAYS TO GO IN TRUMP’S TERM, WHY IMPEACH HIM?
What does the pride of Monroe, Michigan — General George Armstrong Custer — and an obscure 19th Century politician named William Belknap have to do with the post-presidential fate of Donald Trump?
In 1876, months before meeting his own fate at the Battle of the Little Big Horn in the Montana Territory, Custer was a whistle blower. He testified before Congress, alleging corruption in the War Department. Custer’s testimony pointed directly at Secretary of War William Belknap for regularly accepting kickbacks throughout the years of the Ulysses S. Grant Administration.
The U.S. House of Representatives launched an impeachment inquiry. Belknap was cornered. Minutes before the impeachment vote was to be taken, Belknap submitted his resignation letter, tearfully and in-person, to President Grant. The House, despite the resignation, proceeded to impeach Belknap.
The Senate then set what is known as the Belknap precedent. The Senate proceeded to hold a full trial of impeachment after Belknap had left the War Department. The House impeachment managers argued that Belknap should not be allowed to escape justice by simply resigning. Ultimately, even though a majority of the Senate voted to convict Belknap on each of the articles, a two-thirds vote was needed to convict and Belknap was acquitted.
With a week to go before the Biden Inauguration, the House could impeach Trump this week on just one or more of these three controversial acts done by Trump after the November 3 election:
- His hour-long telephone call with Georgia’s Secretary of State, demanding that 11,780 votes be “recalculated” into his total, giving Trump Georgia’s 15 electoral votes (play the audio tape).
- His more than hour-long speech on the ellipse behind the White House, where, in front of tens of thousands of his cult supporters, he incited them to march to the Capitol where they committed trespass, violence, property damage, theft, riot, and insurrection, which resulted in the deaths of five persons and dozens of personal injuries (play the video of Trump’s remarks and TV coverage of the assault on the Capitol).
- His misuse of his pardon power, which by Tuesday, January 19, may include himself, his family members, White House staff, assorted bankers and accountants and employees of the Trump organization, and co-conspirators like Rudy Giuliani.
Using the Belknap precedent, the Senate could assign the House-passed articles of impeachment to the Senate Rules Committee and wait, even months, after Trump has left office, allowing the Senate to concentrate first on confirming all of Biden’s cabinet appointments and giving the new administration time to straightened out the Covid-19 vaccination program before beginning an impeachment trial. Trump’s critics are calculating how much dirt will have surfaced on Trump by then. Maybe they will even want to wait until Bob Woodward’s next book comes out on Trump’s Final Days to begin the trial.
The goal is no longer just to remove Donald Trump from office, but to make sure he can never again run for President. Article 1, Section 3, of the Constitution provides that “Judgment in cases of impeachment shall not extend further than removal from office, and disqualification to hold any office of honor, trust or profit under the United States.” That means, if he wants to run for state office like Governor of New York someday, where he might be able to do another round of pardons, Trump would be free to do so.
Some Never-Trumpers like former Michigan Chamber of Commerce legal counsel Bob LaBrant even posit that Senators like Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley, who have been looking ahead to 2024, might find reason to vote for Trump’s impeachment conviction and follow-up motion, disqualifying him from any future federal office.
There seems to be little promise of future success for Republicans by continuing to tie their electoral fate to an unquestioning allegiance to Donald Trump. Since Trump’s surprise electoral college upset in 2016, Republicans have lost majority control of the U.S. House of Representatives after the 2018 elections. Minority status in the House continues for the GOP after the 2020 elections. The Republican Party will lose its majority status in the U.S. Senate after Democrats won the two Georgia run-off elections on January 5, and with soon-to-be Vice President Kamala Harris’s tie-breaking vote, Democrats will become the majority party on January 20. Trump lost to Biden by 7 million votes in the 2020 election and in the Electoral College by 306-232. Some Republican senators like Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski may even jump ship and become Independents but will caucus with the Democrats, as Senators Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Angus King (I-ME) currently do.
Republicans turning a blind eye to Trump’s authoritarian excesses and his questionable handling of a response to the COVID-19 pandemic makes no sense. Republicans made a comeback from the Watergate Scandal not by seeking a restoration or further defense of Richard Nixon but by turning the page to seek new leadership in 1980 with Ronald Reagan. Seventeen Republicans would be needed to reach 67 votes (2/3 vote) with a full Senate of 100 members, but the Constitution requires only a 2/3 vote of those senators voting on the conviction question (“ no person shall be convicted without the concurrence of two thirds of the members present”).
A Trump impeachment vote would be expected to attract all 50 Democratic senators. As many as 10 Republican senators might be so fed up with Trump that they too will vote to convict.
What if another 10 Republican Senators, although reluctant to acquit the president, are simply not ready to vote to convict? What if those 10 Republicans take a “Ferris Bueller Day Off ” from their senatorial duties and do not vote on the motion to convict? You would get the 2/3 vote of those senators present, meeting the threshold necessary to convict Trump.
Next up would be a second vote to disqualify Trump from holding any future federal office. A disqualification vote is in order only if Trump has been found guilty of a high crime or misdemeanor. The disqualification motion requires only a majority vote, not the 2/3 vote required to convict.
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Good article. Thank you.
Excellent analysis. It makes a lot of sense, so it probably won’t happen!
Agreed.
What is needed is a strict policy so
People can vote without problems, In writing. A written policy not mailed in advance . Vote on the spot. Voter gets ballot and casts votes in person at same time. Nothing in advance.
So, people home bound, in the military, spending November in Florida, working out of state, or afraid of crowds during a pandemic, would not be allowed to vote?
Your suggestion violates the Michigan State Constitution that makes it the right of every voter to vote by mail or in person in the 40 day period prior to election day. That provision was added by a constitutional amendment adopted with over 66% of the vote in the 2018 election (before the Pandemic). Ed, do you really want to deny rights demanded by the people by popular vote?
Interesting history Bill and some new insights. At one time I think I read that the House impeached someone after he had died, just to find out the facts of a scandal. But I can’t find any current reference to it. Do you know anything about that. I think it may have been a federal judge, perhaps in the late 1800s.
Bill, this is a truthful and well-reasoned piece—few, if any, reasonable and thoughtful people could disagree with your conclusions. Thank you.
Bill really interesting but Inciting a riot that causes death is Felony
Murder in Michigan . He and Rudy and Jr .
Should all be. Brought to Justice . The Democratic Party
Since Woodrow Wilson have Always been thereto rescue America in times of Severe
Trouble to the Republic . Anyone who voted for
Trump the Second time enabled a mad Man.
Just jail him and his family ! Impeach ?Fine.
Whether he is impeached or not, he will be subject to criminal prosecution after he leaves office on Jan. 20. Pardoning himself is questionable and will be determined after he is charged.
Mr. Bill, I have to say you are sounding like senator Romney and also you are buying in to the main stream media. I agree the rush on the White House was an abomination. But watching videos of the dc police allowing the gangs in is proof that Trump didn’t incite this. Why would he want to endanger his aides and himself?
There is undeniable proof that the election was rigged.
The right and the left old time politicians have hated Trump from the beginning. They all expected Hillary to win and therefore their global agenda would get done and be completed. When she didn’t, the motions were begun to set in place that Biden would win no matter how many votes President Trump received. And we are supposed to turn a blind eye to this? All of them are corrupt and they don’t want their illegal money grabbing schemes stopped. Trump has tried to clean them up.
Shame on all of you!
Excellent analysis, as always. Thank you and keep it up!
There is a new book out titled BELIEF written by psychology professor James E. Alcock PhD of York University in Toronto. People who like to understand how humans basically think might like to read it, as it is quite comprehensive.
After reading it will become obvious how difficult it is to change the belief of a believer in an untrue thing into believing a true thing.
Luckily people have discovered the scientific method. The various sciences are being developed bit by bit through experimentation, to see how true they are analyzing our reality, and through logical thinking propose new things and new systems which then can be tried–like our new effective designed mRNA(messenger RNA) vaccines.
OK, someone has to respond to the silly letter by “Lisa” that reads like a Trump lie-fest, edited by Sydney Powell. The crowd did NOT rush the White House (thus exonerating the President). It broke into the Capitol, terrorizing not Trump and his aides, but Members of Congress and their staff. Lisa’s sentence stating “undeniable that the election was rigged” has thus far been rejected by 60+ courts. Assertions without proof (a Trump specialty) don’t carry the day in courtrooms, but unfortunately have a long half-life among the credulous. And then there is “All of them are corrupt”…which without a clear antecedent appears to refer to “right and left old-time politicians”. It is easy to assert universal criminality, money-grubbing schemes, and Trump’s attempts to clean them up, but actual proof of all three is hard to come by. Trump should announce today he will be on vacation for the next 9 days, and that Pence will sit in his chair for the interim, and maybe Nancy will settle for virtue-signaling, eliminate a week-long impeachment and let Biden start making his own mistakes.
Thank you Bill very inciteful and edifying as always.
Bill,
Many thanks for making us aware of this interesting bit of history.
As an interesting aside regarding the Battle of the Little Big Horn, some historians attribute Custer’s reckless and ill-advised decision to split his relatively small command and attack Sitting Bull’s encampment (with virtually no knowledge of the size of the forces he was attacking) at least partially to an ambition to become president of the USA. Not the first time that political ambition has led to disaster.