JAMES CRAIG FOR GOVERNOR? WILL IT HAPPEN? ANSWERS TO THIS QUESTION AND OTHERS!

1. Question: Detroit Police Chief James Craig has announced he’s retiring June 1. He says he will make a decision whether he will run for public office after that time. If so, will it be for the Republican nomination for Governor in 2022? GOP leaders are giddy in their belief they finally will have a ‘top tier’ candidate who can sweep Gretchen Whitmer out of office. One public relations maven says a Craig candidacy would be a “game changer.” Is it?
   

1. Answer: Not yet — there’s a long way to go. Although candidates with law enforcement credentials have certain built-in advantages, there is much more to being a candidate for political office, particularly for a major one like governor, than simply being able to show that you once wore the badge, even if you did a good job of it. In fact, the Republicans, and even some ostensibly non-partisan candidates, have a less-than-exemplary track record over the past seven decades when running for high office in Michigan. Look at the list of who fell short not so long ago, and even back into the 1950s. Oakland Co. Sheriff Mike Bouchard won a competitive GOP primary in 2006 but then got waxed by incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow in the general election. Before that, it was Gil “Beverly Hills Cop” Hill, who was a commander in the Detroit police department and later president of the Detroit city council. He had a lot of key endorsements, but he lost to then-state Rep. Kwame Kilpatrick in the non-partisan race for Detroit mayor in 2001. Earlier, the Republicans in 1986 nominated Bill Lucas, who was the Wayne Co. Executive after serving as Wayne Co. Sheriff; Lucas was decimated by sitting Gov. James Blanchard in the general although Lucas went on later to be elected a judge. In 1973, Detroit Police Chief John Nichols finished first in the non-partisan primary for Detroit mayor, but then lost the finale to state Senator Coleman Young. Nichols recovered by moving to Oakland Co. and was elected sheriff as a Republican. Way back in 1954, in the last race that might be truly analogous to the current situation if Craig should become the GOP’s gubernatorial nominee next year, a former Detroit Police Commissioner (that’s what the ‘chief’ was called in those days) named Donald Leonard was the Republicans’ nominee for governor against incumbent G. Mennen “Soapy” Williams, who was then seeking his fourth consecutive two-year term. Soapy clobbered Leonard in a year when the Democrats swept every major statewide office. So Craig has to prove he is a bona fide political commodity. He has to show he can raise campaign cash, and he probably won’t get a free ride to the GOP nomination — he’ll likely have to beat one or more opponents whether they are considered top-notch or not. There are a whole bunch of social/cultural issues that will be in play that he’ll have to deal with adroitly. It will help that he won’t have the “baggage” that other candidates have accumulated from years in office, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be judged by his ability to address the issues in a coherent way.

2.  Q: Will Donald TRUMP play a role in Michigan’s 2022 gubernatorial race — and if so — what will that role likely be?

2. Answer: Almost certainly, but will it be more significant in the Republican primary, or in the general election? You might imagine James Craig would be the perfect kind of candidate for Trump to get behind. The former president weighed in on the special election in Texas’s 6th Congressional district two weeks ago, and the primary candidate he endorsed, Susan Wright, finished first in a 23-candidate field, although she faces a runoff. It was a jungle primary, and Democrats were completely locked out of the finale. The Republican aggregate vote overpowered the Democrats, 62%-37% in a district that Trump carried by only 3% in 2020. Trump can be expected to endorse both in Michigan’s GOP gubernatorial primary, and in the general, where he would most likely sweep in and deliver a stem-winder against his old bete-noire, “The woman from Michigan.”

3. Q. Just a week ago, potential top-notch contenders for a Michigan GOP gubernatorial bid seemed stuck in a holding pattern waiting for John JAMES to decide whether he was running or not — and, if so — realistically how long could they wait? 

3. Answer: No matter — nobody is waiting anymore. If James Craig jumps into the race, it’s a signal that James won’t run, if indeed he was even seriously considering it. Yes, others not considered top tier have already announced, but will they actually follow through with it? Someone with a lot of money could decide to take a shot at it,  but who would that be? There are no signs of a 2009-10 Rick Snyder out there. Yes, their financial advantage could propel them to run no matter what someone like Craig might eventually decide, but it seems unlikely.

4.  Q. Politically speaking, who benefits most from Gov. Gretchen WHITMER’s decision to tie lifting COVID-19 restrictions to the percentage of Michiganders who get vaccinated? 

4. Answer: If all the benchmark metrics for vaccination are met as projected by the governor, it’s hard to see anybody but Whitmer getting the political benefit, if any is to be had. Even if she’s bungled her handling of the pandemic over the past year, her latest strategy — out of left field, with many questions about it still unanswered — is actually what Republicans have argued should have been done a long time ago. They won’t get any credit for her change of heart, however. One caveat: we aren’t out of the woods yet with COVID-19. There’s still plenty of time for the governor to make a hash out of something else that will prove to be more important to voters than her latest vaccination regimen.

5.  Q. With two State House members being charged with drunk driving over the last couple of weeks, how much pressure is now on House Speaker Jason WENTWORTH (R-Clare) to treat them both in precisely the same way? 

5. Answer: Drunk driving incidents look like snowflakes — they’re all the same, yet they’re all different. There are obvious differences between what happened with Rep. Jewell Jones (D-Inkster)  and his reaction to it, and Rep. Bryan Posthumus (R-Greenville) and how he handled things afterwards. Jones’s troubles are all on video. I’m not sure whether any House Speaker should have a role in any of this, and if he does he’d better be very careful. One of these legislators is a Democrat, one a Republican. The Speaker is a Republican. Whether there should be any internal, “in-House” punishment of either legislator beyond what the law metes out in their respective cases is problematic.

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