Question 1): MIRS newsletter reported last week that “quiet conversations” are beginning in Republican circles about the possibility of the GOP-controlled state House and Senate in the next few weeks fashioning a “modest” abortion rights bill to defuse the expansive “Reproductive Freedom For All” proposal likely to appear on the Nov. 8 general election ballot. The idea would be to force Governor Gretchen Whitmer to either sign or veto a “compromise” bill passed by a majority pro-life Legislature. Such a bill might ban abortion after, say, 12-15 weeks, and/or require “informed consent” or parental consent for minors seeking abortions and other regulations that polls show a majority of Michigan voters support. If Whitmer vetoes such a bill, she would be stuck with ownership of what some see as “radical” pro-abortion constitutional language if voters approve it on 11/8. On the other hand, if she accepts the legislation, it would be state law pending the possible approval of the 11/8 ballot question, which would then supercede the new law — and that would be fine with Whitmer. In other words, if “moderate” pro-abortion legislation were to be enacted, the citizenry would know going into the election that an alternative is already in place that a strong majority of voters seems to support — limited abortions under strict regulations (“Safe, legal and rare,” as Bill Clinton once described it). This would be in stark contrast to the all-or-nothing options voters are currently stuck with. Theoretically, such legislation would force the Governor to publicly act on her No. 1 campaign talking point. If she’s not willing to sign a bill creating limited abortion, Whitmer can be framed by Republicans and their gubernatorial nominee, Tudor Dixon, as an out-of-touch liberal on the subject. The pro-life side is already planning an expensive ad campaign to bring up wild scenarios the 11/8 constitutional amendment could possibly make real: Youth starting gender transitioning without parental consent, or prosecutors unable to charge “back alley” abortionists who botch a procedure. How likely is it that legislative Republicans might try to pass such a bill?
Answer 1): Highly unlikely. The biggest initial hurdle would be getting to first base with the conservative Republican caucuses in both the House and Senate, both of which the GOP now controls. Many Republican legislators came into office with Right to Life support. They have moral issues with anything other than abortions limited to the life of the mother. Some support abortion exceptions for rape and incest, but not all. MIRS reports that when Emily KROLL, who runs Michigan Right to Life’s Political Action Committee, was asked about the legislation described above, she replied that “Unequivocally, we would never support that. We don’t play politics with human lives.” However, the political benefits make sense — if not to most Republicans, maybe they would to Tudor Dixon. She could say she would reluctantly support such a statute, although she vehemently opposes the Nov. 8 ballot proposal. She could look like she’s in the “sensible middle” working to connect with independents and those with majority moderate views on abortion whose votes she needs if she has a chance to beat Whitmer. If the Republicans do nothing but oppose the ballot proposal, surveys show them losing on 11/8. Reproductive Freedom For All is a roll of the dice for everyone involved. It’s all or nothing. It’s either the most extreme “abortion on demand” rights in the nation written into the Michigan Constitution, or no abortion at all. Dixon could point out that, if the Michigan Supreme Court, which has a majority of Democratic-nominated justices, finds a way to invalidate the 1931 abortion ban, a new law written by pro-life Republicans could create regulations where otherwise none would conceivably exist.
But maybe Dixon should wait until after the upcoming Republican state convention to make any such a pronouncement.
*****************************************************
Question 2): What are the odds (as in “even,” 2 to 1, 3 to 1, etc.) that Tudor Dixon will win this year’s governor’s race?
Answer 2): 3-1, which in horse racing parlance means a 25% chance. Now, if this were the Kentucky Derby with a huge field, those wouldn’t be bad odds. Dixon might even be one of the favorites. Problem is, she’s got only one opponent — Gretchen Whitmer, who is the favorite with odds the reverse of Dixon’s — 1-3 (75% chance of winning). That doesn’t make Whitmer a Secretariat-like prohibitive choice at odds of, say, 1-10 (90%), but she’s the clear favorite. Of course, there are a lot of voters who think Whitmer has not been a good governor — some would say terrible — but they’re probably not a majority. Dixon has got to prove she’s a ‘fast closer’ like longshot Rich Strike in the 2022 Derby, who came from behind down the stretch to pull off a shocking upset win. After all, it happened in 1990.
***************************************************************************
Question 3):. With an aggressive campaign against Dixon already in progress, how long can her campaign afford to delay launching ads on her behalf?
Answer 3): Dixon can’t wait, although she may be forced to for lack of financial resources. No question, the Democratic Governor’s Association and other outside groups are rushing to ‘define’ Dixon with negative ads before she can even get her running shoes on. Plus, Whitmer herself is way ahead of the Republican nominee in money raised. Dixon will probably never be able to match the governor in that regard, but she needs to raise enough to make herself competitive. That’s easier said than done.
******************************************************
Question 4): Could Dana Nessel naming a special prosecutor to look into potential charges against her expected general election opponent, Republican Matt DePerno, backfire on her politically?
Answer 4): It’s probably not a good look for Nessel to attempt this ploy, but the Attorney General has never worried much about the ‘dignity’ of being the state’s top law enforcement officer. If a special prosecutor does anything between now and the election that throws DePerno on the defensive, Nessel will have gotten what she wanted. Obtaining real justice is not what this is about. It’s about discrediting your opponent so you can be handily re-elected.
**********************************************************
Question 5): If inflation doesn’t subside noticeably between now and November, will passage of the so-called Inflation Reduction Act by Congress and signed by President Joe Biden have much impact on the election?
Answer 5): There have been a jumble of mixed messages about what this legislation should be called. Is it “Inflation Reduction” or is it about fighting Climate Change or Saving Obamacare or reducing the cost of prescription drugs or something else? The public is already wise to the fact that the Congressional Democrats’ latest gambit is not “inflation reduction” — in fact, it may be the opposite. Even Bernie Sanders remarked in U.S. Senate floor debate that any inflation reduction in this bill would be minimal. That means that the public will see inflation lingering at a very high level between now and November, although it may appear to be coming down slightly. That’s not good for Democrats, but they can take heart that Biden’s approval ratings are looking better than thy have in a long time. That may be the best news of all for the donkey.
********************************************
Excellent newsletter today. You summed it up to a “T”.
ggood insight Bill. thank you.
The Ballenger Report plus Tim Skubick on Statewide TV OTR, “the Republican Party is back in the Dark Ages of previous issues.Betsy DeVos is more unpopular than Donald Trump.”
Also, Nolan Finley , Editorial Director Detroit News 8/14/2022 “Trump is the biggest RINO of all. Trump is a narcissist who has done nothing but tear down the Republican Party piece by piece.”
He did not tear it down on November 8, 2016.
Tough questions; candid answers. Good job Bill.
As usual, direct and to the point. Face it, Bill, you’re laconic.
As always you are spot on Bill. I have great concerns about the party pics they are not the ones that I picked. I am an ultra conservative Republican who does not feel there is going to be a red wave but we shall see!
The “Inflation Reduction Act” is pure Orwellian political propaganda ! It is disguised to help the Poor and Middle Class in the name only ! The Progressives have destroyed the Democratic Party with little resistance from Our Michigan Congressional elective Officials.
I would think Tudor Dixon’s odds as underdog are more like 2-1.
A betting man would wisely pick Whitmer as the future victor in October – but Dixon’s polling numbers against Whitmer have increased steadily since the beginning of the year.
There will be a Red Wave in Michigan as happened in 2010 when the GOP won ALL State of Michigan offices were taken by the GOP. The question is whether Dixon can beat Whitmer even though the stronger candidates such as James Craig and Perry Johnson have been swept out by the Board of Canvassers.
Polling suggests that DePerno is the ONLY Republican candidate who is leading in the statewide officer polling results.
The GOP can be expected to retain its longstanding control of the Michigan Senate and have a majority in the state house chamber.
The U.S. Congress will be favorable to the GOP in Michigan in November elections – with Hilary Scholten expected to deliver a much-needed victory for the Dems.