A trio of Democratic open seats in Florida would be a massive gift to Republican redistricters looking to improve on the party’s current 16-11 majority over Democrats — and with a new seat coming to the state after reapportionment.

Another state to keep an eye on is Pennsylvania, where the state’s open Senate seat — Pat Toomey (R) is retiring — is attracting interest from a number of House Democrats, most notably Rep. Conor Lamb who represents a western Pennsylvania seat that Biden won in 2020 but Trump carried in 2016. If Lamb runs, his 17th district could be carved up by the state’s line-drawers — control of redistricting is split between the two parties — who will have to find a way to reduce the congressional delegation by a seat in 2022.

The Senate candidacy of Rep. Tim Ryan in Ohio and the possible Senate candidacy of Rep. Ron Kind in Wisconsin are two other major concerns for Democrats, as both states lost a seat in reapportionment and redistricters will be on the hunt for districts they can compress or eliminate altogether.

But every retirement matters that much more to Democrats this election cycle, because their majority is so remarkably thin. At the moment, Democrats control 218 seats to 212 for Republicans, although that margin is expected to grow by a seat next week when Louisiana Rep.-elect Troy Carter (D) is formally sworn in.

Combine it all and Democrats were going to have a hard time holding their majority under the best of circumstances. When you factor in the weight of history and their recent series of problematic retirements (with more likely to come!), the majority looks very, very imperiled.

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